Evaluation of ICUs and weight of quality control indicators: an exploratory study based on Chinese ICU quality data from 2015 to 2020 / 医学前沿

This study aimed to explore key quality control factors that affected the prognosis of intensive care unit (ICU) patients in Chinese mainland over six years (2015-2020). The data for this study were from 31 provincial and municipal hospitals (3425 hospital ICUs) and included 2 110 685 ICU patients, for a total of 27 607 376 ICU hospitalization days. We found that 15 initially established quality control indicators were good predictors of patient prognosis, including percentage of ICU patients out of all inpatients (%), percentage of ICU bed occupancy of total inpatient bed occupancy (%), percentage of all ICU inpatients with an APACHE II score ⩾15 (%), three-hour (surviving sepsis campaign) SSC bundle compliance (%), six-hour SSC bundle compliance (%), rate of microbe detection before antibiotics (%), percentage of drug deep venous thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis (%), percentage of unplanned endotracheal extubations (%), percentage of patients reintubated within 48 hours (%), unplanned transfers to the ICU (%), 48-h ICU readmission rate (%), ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) (per 1000 ventilator days), catheter related blood stream infection (CRBSI) (per 1000 catheter days), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) (per 1000 catheter days), in-hospital mortality (%). When exploratory factor analysis was applied, the 15 indicators were divided into 6 core elements that varied in weight regarding quality evaluation: nosocomial infection management (21.35%), compliance with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines (17.97%), ICU resources (17.46%), airway management (15.53%), prevention of deep-vein thrombosis (14.07%), and severity of patient condition (13.61%). Based on the different weights of the core elements associated with the 15 indicators, we developed an integrated quality scoring system defined as F score=21.35%xnosocomial infection management + 17.97%xcompliance with SSC guidelines + 17.46%×ICU resources + 15.53%×airway management + 14.07%×DVT prevention + 13.61%×severity of patient condition. This evidence-based quality scoring system will help in assessing the key elements of quality management and establish a foundation for further optimization of the quality control indicator system.

Evaluation of ICUs and weight of quality control indicators: an exploratory study based on Chinese ICU quality data from 2015 to 2020 / 医学前沿

This study aimed to explore key quality control factors that affected the prognosis of intensive care unit (ICU) patients in Chinese mainland over six years (2015-2020). The data for this study were from 31 provincial and municipal hospitals (3425 hospital ICUs) and included 2 110 685 ICU patients, for a total of 27 607 376 ICU hospitalization days. We found that 15 initially established quality control indicators were good predictors of patient prognosis, including percentage of ICU patients out of all inpatients (%), percentage of ICU bed occupancy of total inpatient bed occupancy (%), percentage of all ICU inpatients with an APACHE II score ⩾15 (%), three-hour (surviving sepsis campaign) SSC bundle compliance (%), six-hour SSC bundle compliance (%), rate of microbe detection before antibiotics (%), percentage of drug deep venous thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis (%), percentage of unplanned endotracheal extubations (%), percentage of patients reintubated within 48 hours (%), unplanned transfers to the ICU (%), 48-h ICU readmission rate (%), ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) (per 1000 ventilator days), catheter related blood stream infection (CRBSI) (per 1000 catheter days), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) (per 1000 catheter days), in-hospital mortality (%). When exploratory factor analysis was applied, the 15 indicators were divided into 6 core elements that varied in weight regarding quality evaluation: nosocomial infection management (21.35%), compliance with the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines (17.97%), ICU resources (17.46%), airway management (15.53%), prevention of deep-vein thrombosis (14.07%), and severity of patient condition (13.61%). Based on the different weights of the core elements associated with the 15 indicators, we developed an integrated quality scoring system defined as F score=21.35%xnosocomial infection management + 17.97%xcompliance with SSC guidelines + 17.46%×ICU resources + 15.53%×airway management + 14.07%×DVT prevention + 13.61%×severity of patient condition. This evidence-based quality scoring system will help in assessing the key elements of quality management and establish a foundation for further optimization of the quality control indicator system.

Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model

BackgroundWith the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a sudden case increase in late February 2020 led to deep concern globally. Italy, South Korea, Iran, France, Germany, Spain, the US and Japan are probably the countries with the most severe outbreaks. Collecting epidemiological data and predicting epidemic trends are important for the development and measurement of public intervention strategies. Epidemic prediction results yielded by different mathematical models are inconsistent; therefore, we sought to compare different models and their prediction results to generate objective conclusions. MethodsWe used the number of cases reported from January 23 to March 20, 2020, to estimate the possible spread size and peak time of COVID-19, especially in 8 high-risk countries. The logistic growth model, basic SEIR model and adjusted SEIR model were adopted for prediction. Given that different model inputs may infer different model outputs, we implemented three model predictions with three scenarios of epidemic development. ResultsWhen comparing all 8 countries short-term prediction results and peak predictions, the differences among the models were relatively large. The logistic growth model estimated a smaller epidemic size than the basic SERI model did; however, once we added parameters that considered the effects of public health interventions and control measures, the adjusted SERI model results demonstrated a considerably rapid deceleration of epidemic development. Our results demonstrated that contact rate, quarantine scale, and the initial quarantine time and length are important factors in controlling epidemic size and length. ConclusionsWe demonstrated a comparative assessment of the predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak in eight high-risk countries using multiple methods. By forecasting epidemic size and peak time as well as simulating the effects of public health interventions, the intent of this paper is to help clarify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and recommend operation suggestions to slow down the epidemic. It is suggested that the quick detection of cases, sufficient implementation of quarantine and public self-protection behaviors are critical to slow down the epidemic.

Evaluating the secondary transmission pattern and epidemic prediction of the COVID-19 in metropolitan areas of China

Understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is crucial for evaluating its spread pattern, especially in metropolitan areas of China, as its spread can lead to secondary outbreaks outside Wuhan, the center of the new coronavirus disease outbreak. In addition, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China have the potential to provide evidence to support other metropolitan areas and large cities outside China with emerging cases. We used data reported from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020, to fit a model of infection, estimate the likely number of infections in four high-risk metropolitan areas based on the number of cases reported, and increase the understanding of the COVID-19 spread pattern. Considering the effect of the official quarantine regulations and travel restrictions for China, which began January 23[~]24, 2020, we used the daily travel intensity index from the Baidu Maps app to roughly simulate the level of restrictions and estimate the proportion of the quarantined population. A group of SEIR model statistical parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and fitting on the basis of reported data. As a result, we estimated that the basic reproductive number, R0, was 2.91 in Beijing, 2.78 in Shanghai, 2.02 in Guangzhou, and 1.75 in Shenzhen based on the data from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020. In addition, we inferred the prediction results and compared the results of different levels of parameters. For example, in Beijing, the predicted peak number of cases was approximately 466 with a peak time of February 29, 2020; however, if the city were to implement different levels (strict, mild, or weak) of travel restrictions or regulation measures, the estimation results showed that the transmission dynamics would change and that the peak number of cases would differ by between 56% and [~]159%. We concluded that public health interventions would reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19 and that more rigorous control and prevention measures would effectively contain its further spread but that the risk will increase when businesses and social activities return to normal before the end of the epidemic. Besides, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China are potential to provide evidences supporting for other metropolitan areas and big cities with emerging cases outside China.

Chinese Herbal Medicine Combined with Western Medicine for Placenta Implantation / 广州中医药大学学报

Placenta implantation is a rare but dangerous postpartum complication. In this study, 17 cases of placenta implantation were allocated to two groups. The treatment group?(9?cases)was treated with modified Xuefu Zhuyu Decoction on the basis of intravenous drip of methotrexate. The control group(8?cases)was treated with intravenous drip of methotrexate combined with oxytocin and antibiotic. The results showed that all of the cases in the treatment group were cured and no one case received uterine curettage or uterectomy.But in the control group,5 received uterine curettage and 1 total uterectomy. It is indicated that Chinese herbal medicine combined with western medicine is a better therapy for placenta implantation.

Behavior Problems and Relevant Factors of School Aged Children in Kunming / 昆明医科大学学报

Objective To explore the prevalence and correlated factors of behavior problems among primary students.Methods Rutter Child Behavior Check list was applied to 956 primary students.Results Primary students with behavior disorder accounted for 30.4%: antisocial type(A) 12.8%,neurotic type 10.0% and mixed types(M) 7.6%.The main correlated factors included sex,rapport of family,the time spent with family members and friendship.Conclusion Parents,teachers and government should pay more attention to the primary students with behavior disorder.