Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Anemia design effects in cluster surveys of women and young children in refugee settings.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition surveys in many refugee settings routinely estimate anemia prevalence in high-risk population groups. Given the lack of information on anemia design effects (DEFF) observed in surveys in these settings, the goal of this paper is to better understand the magnitude and distribution of DEFFs and intracluster correlation coefficients (ICCs) in order to inform future survey design. METHODS: Two-stage cluster surveys conducted during 2013-2016 were included if they measured hemoglobin in refugee children aged 6-59 months and/or non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years. Prevalence of anemia, anemia DEFFs and ICCs, mean cluster size, number of clusters, and total sample size were calculated per-survey for non-pregnant women and children. Non-parametric tests were used to assess differences and correlations of ICC and DEFF between women and children and inter-regional differences. RESULTS: Eighty-seven unique cluster surveys from nine countries were included in this analysis. More than 90% of all surveys had ICC values for anemia below 0.10. Median ICC for children was 0.032 (IQR: 0.015-0.048), not significantly different from that observed for non-pregnant women for whom the median was 0.024 (IQR: -0.002-0.055). DEFFs were significantly higher for children [1.54 (IQR: 1.21-1.82)] versus women [1.20 (IQR: 0.99-1.46)]. Regional differences in DEFFs and ICCs were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Both ICCs and DEFF were relatively small for both non-pregnant women and preschool children and fall in a narrow range. Differences in ICCs between women and children were non-significant, suggesting similar inter-cluster distributions of anemia; significant differences in DEFF were likely attributable to differing cluster sizes. Given regional differences in both ICCs and DEFFs, location-specific values are preferred. However, in the absence of other context-specific information, we suggest using DEFFs of 1.4-1.8 if mean cluster size is around 20, and DEFFs of 1.2-1.4 if mean cluster size is around 10.

Outcome of HIV Testing Among Family Members of Index Cases Across 36 Facilities in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

In Côte d'Ivoire, the Family Approach to Counseling and Testing (FACT) program began in 2015 and provides facility-based HIV testing to the sexual partners, children and other household family members of HIV-positive index cases. We evaluated whether the FACT program is an effective approach to HIV case finding. We reviewed 1762 index patient charts to evaluate outcomes of the FACT program, held across 36 facilities in Abidjan. Index cases enumerated a total of 644 partners, 2301 children and 508 other family members including parents and siblings. Among the partners tested for HIV, the positivity rate was 21%; for children the positivity rate was 5% and for all other family members the positivity rate was 11%. Offering HIV testing services to the family members of HIV positive index cases is an effective approach to case finding in Côte d'Ivoire. Particularly, offering HIV testing to the partners of positive women index cases can be key to identifying previously undiagnosed men and linking them to treatment.

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target. METHODS: We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations. RESULTS: Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

Essential newborn care practice at four primary health facilities in conflict affected areas of Bossaso, Somalia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Newborn mortality is increasingly concentrated in contexts of conflict and political instability. However, there are limited guidelines and data on the availability and quality of newborn care in conflict settings. In 2016, an interagency collaboration developed the Newborn Health in Humanitarian Settings Field Guide- Interim version (Field Guide). In this study, we sought to understand the baseline availability and quality of essential newborn care in Bossaso, Somalia as part of an investigation to determine the feasibility and effectiveness of the Field Guide in improving newborn care in humanitarian settings. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at four purposely selected health facilities serving internally displaced persons affected by conflict in Bossaso. Essential newborn care practice and patient experience with childbirth care received at the facilities were assessed via observation of clinical practice during childbirth and the immediate postnatal period, and through postnatal interviews of mothers. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were employed to summarize and examine variation by health facility. RESULTS: Of the 332 pregnant women approached, 253 (76.2%) consented and were enrolled. 97.2% (95% CI: 94.4, 98.9) had livebirths and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.1, 5.6) had stillbirths. The early newborn mortality was 1.7% (95% CI: 0.3, 4.8). Nearly all [95.7%, (95% CI: 92.4, 97.8)] births were attended by skilled health worker. Similarly, 98.0% (95% CI: 95.3, 99.3) of newborns received immediate drying, and 99.2% (95% CI: 97.1, 99.9) had delayed bathing. Few [8.6%, (95% CI: 5.4, 12.9)] received immediate skin-to-skin contact and the practice varied significantly by facility (p < 0.001). One-third of newborns [30.1%, (95% CI: 24.4, 36.2)] received early initiation of breastfeeding and there was significant variation by facility (p < 0.001). While almost all [99.2%, (95% CI: 97.2, 100)] service providers wore gloves while attending births, handwashing was not as common [20.2%, (95% CI: 15.4, 25.6)] and varied by facility (p < 0.001). Nearly all [92%, (95% CI: 86.9, 95.5)] mothers were either very happy or happy with the childbirth care received at the facility. CONCLUSION: Essential newborn care interventions were not universally available. Quality of care varied by health facility and type of intervention. Training and supervision using the Field Guide could improve newborn outcomes.

High Levels of HIV-1 Drug Resistance in Children Who Acquired HIV Infection Through Mother to Child Transmission in the Era of Option B+, Haiti, 2013 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study was to determine the frequency and patterns of HIV drug resistance-associated mutations among children under 18 months of age born to HIV-1-positive mothers enrolled in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Haiti. METHODS: Between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2014, HIV-positive remnant dried blood spots collected from children under 18 months of age for Early Infant Diagnosis at the National Public Health Laboratory were used for HIV-1 genotyping. HIV drug resistance mutations were analyzed using the Stanford Drug Resistance HIVdb program. RESULTS: Of the 3555 dried blood spots collected for Early Infant Diagnosis, 360 (10.1%) were HIV-positive and 355 were available for genotyping. Of these, 304 (85.6%) were successfully genotyped and 217 (71.4%) had ≥1 drug resistance mutation. Mutations conferring resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTIs) and non-NRTIs were present in 40.5% (123) and 69.1% (210), respectively. The most frequent mutations were K103N/S (48.0%), M184V (37.5%), G190A/S (15.1%), and Y181C/G/V (14.1%). Predicted drug resistance analysis revealed that 68.8% of the children had high-level resistance to non-NRTIs and 11.5% had intermediate to high-level resistance to abacavir. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed high rates of resistance to NRTIs and non-NRTIs among newly HIV-diagnosed children in Haiti, suggesting that in the era of "Option B+" (initiation of lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy to pregnant women with HIV), the majority of children who acquire HIV infection through mother-to-child transmission of HIV have resistant HIV. These results have led the National HIV Program to revise the pediatric guidelines to include protease inhibitors in first-line regimens for all HIV-positive newborns.

Use of Rapid Ascertainment Process for Institutional Deaths (RAPID) to identify pregnancy-related deaths in tertiary-care obstetric hospitals in three departments in Haiti.

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessment of maternal deaths is difficult in countries lacking standardized data sources for their review. As a first step to investigate suspected maternal deaths, WHO suggests surveillance of "pregnancy-related deaths", defined as deaths of women while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of cause. Rapid Ascertainment Process for Institutional Deaths (RAPID), a surveillance tool, retrospectively identifies pregnancy-related deaths occurring in health facilities that may be missed by routine surveillance to assess gaps in reporting these deaths. METHODS: We used RAPID to review pregnancy-related deaths in six tertiary obstetric care facilities in three departments in Haiti. We reviewed registers and medical dossiers of deaths among women of reproductive age occurring in 2014 and 2015 from all wards, along with any additional available dossiers of deaths not appearing in registers, to capture pregnancy status, suspected cause of death, and timing of death in relation to the pregnancy. We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the true number of in-hospital pregnancy-related deaths in these facilities. RESULTS: Among 373 deaths of women of reproductive age, we found 111 pregnancy-related deaths, 25.2% more than were reported through routine surveillance, and 22.5% of which were misclassified as non-pregnancy-related. Hemorrhage (27.0%) and hypertensive disorders (18.0%) were the most common categories of suspected causes of death, and deaths after termination of pregnancy were statistically significantly more common than deaths during pregnancy or delivery. Data were missing at multiple levels: 210 deaths had an undetermined pregnancy status, 48.7% of pregnancy-related deaths lacked specific information about timing of death in relation to the pregnancy, and capture-recapture analyses in three hospitals suggested that approximately one-quarter of pregnancy-related deaths were not captured by RAPID or routine surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Across six tertiary obstetric care facilities in Haiti, RAPID identified unreported pregnancy-related deaths, and showed that missing data was a widespread problem. RAPID is a useful tool to more completely identify facility-based pregnancy-related deaths, but its repeated use would require a concomitant effort to systematically improve documentation of clinical findings in medical records. Limitations of RAPID demonstrate the need to use it alongside other tools to more accurately measure and address maternal mortality.

Quality and uptake of antenatal and postnatal care in Haiti.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvement, maternal mortality in Haiti remains high at 359/100,000 live births. Improving access to high quality antenatal and postnatal care has been shown to reduce maternal mortality and improve newborn outcomes. Little is known regarding the quality and uptake of antenatal and postnatal care among Haitian women. METHODS: Exit interviews were conducted with all pregnant and postpartum women seeking care from large health facilities (n = 10) in the Nord and Nord-Est department and communes of St. Marc, Verrettes, and Petite Rivière in Haiti over the study period (March-April 2015; 3-4 days/facility). Standard questions related to demographics, previous pregnancies, current pregnancy, and services/satisfaction during the visit were asked. Total number of antenatal visits were abstracted from charts of recently delivered women (n = 1141). Provider knowledge assessments were completed by antenatal and postnatal care providers (n = 39). Frequencies were calculated for descriptive variables and multivariable logistic regression was used to explore predictors of receiving 5 out of 10 counseling messages among pregnant women. RESULTS: Among 894 pregnant women seeking antenatal care, most reported receiving standard clinical service components during their visit (97% were weighed, 80% had fetal heart tones checked), however fewer reported receiving recommended counseling messages (44% counselled on danger signs, 33% on postpartum family planning). Far fewer women were seeking postnatal care (n = 63) and similar service patterns were reported. Forty-three percent of pregnant women report receiving at least 5 out of 10 counseling messages. Pregnant women on a repeat visit and women with greater educational attainment had greater odds of reporting having received 5 out of 10 counseling messages (2nd visit: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] =1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-2.66; 5+ visit: aOR = 5.44, 95% CI: 2.91-10.16; elementary school certificate: aOR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.17-3.63; finished secondary school or more aOR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.05-3.02). Chart reviews indicate 27% of women completed a single antenatal visit and 36% completed the recommended 4 visits. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal and postnatal care uptake in Haiti is sub-optimal. Despite frequent reports of provision of standard service components, counseling messages are low. Consistent provision of standardized counseling messages with regular provider trainings is recommended to improve quality and uptake of care in Haiti.

Parameters associated with design effect of child anthropometry indicators in small-scale field surveys.

BACKGROUND: Cluster surveys provide rapid but representative estimates of key nutrition indicators in humanitarian crises. For these surveys, an accurate estimate of the design effect is critical to calculate a sample size that achieves adequate precision with the minimum number of sampling units. This paper describes the variability in design effect for three key nutrition indicators measured in small-scale surveys and models the association of design effect with parameters hypothesized to explain this variability. METHODS: 380 small-scale surveys from 28 countries conducted between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed. We calculated prevalence and design effect of wasting, underweight, and stunting for each survey as well as standard deviations of the underlying continuous Z-score distribution. Mean cluster size, survey location and year were recorded. To describe design effects, median and interquartile ranges were examined. Generalized linear regression models were run to identify potential predictors of design effect. RESULTS: Median design effect was under 2.00 for all three indicators; for wasting, the median was 1.35, the lowest among the indicators. Multivariable linear regression models suggest significant, positive associations of design effect and mean cluster size for all three indicators, and with prevalence of wasting and underweight, but not stunting. Standard deviation was positively associated with design effect for wasting but negatively associated for stunting. Survey region was significant in all three models. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the current field survey guidance recommending the use of 1.5 as a benchmark for design effect of wasting, but suggests this value may not be large enough for surveys with a primary objective of measuring stunting or underweight. The strong relationship between design effect and region in the models underscores the continued need to consider country- and locality-specific estimates when designing surveys. These models also provide empirical evidence of a positive relationship between design effect and both mean cluster size and prevalence, and introduces standard deviation of the underlying continuous variable (Z-scores) as a previously unexplored factor significantly associated with design effect. The magnitude and directionality of this association differed by indicator, underscoring the need for further investigation into the relationship between standard deviation and design effect.

The association between stress, coping, and sexual risk behaviors over 24 months among African-American female adolescents.

Heightened psychosocial stress coupled with maladaptive coping may be associated with greater sexual risk engagement. This study examined the association between stress levels and coping strategy use as predictors of sexual risk behavior engagement over 24 months among African-American adolescent females (N = 701; M = 17.6 years) enrolled in an STI/HIV risk-reduction intervention program. Participants completed audio computer assisted self-interview (ACASI) measures of global stress, interpersonal stress, coping strategy use, and sexual behaviors prior to intervention participation. Follow-up ACASI assessments were conducted at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months post-intervention. Generalized estimated equation models examined associations between baseline stress levels and coping strategy use as predictors of condom use (past 90 days, last sex) and multiple partners during follow-up. Global stress and individual coping strategy usage were not associated with differences in condom use. Higher interpersonal stress was associated with lower proportion condom use (p = .018), inconsistent condom use (p = .011), and not using a condom at last sex (p = .002). There were no significant associations between stress levels, coping strategy use, and multiple partners. Future research should explore mechanisms that may underlie the association between elevated interpersonal stress and decreased condom use among this population.