Impact and Equity of New York City's Tobacco Retail Reduction Initiative.

INTRODUCTION: High levels of tobacco retailer density in communities is associated with a range of tobacco use behaviors and is a key structural driver of tobacco-related disparities. This study evaluates the impacts of New York City's (NYC) novel policy intervention to cap tobacco retail licenses on tobacco retailer density levels and neighborhood inequities in tobacco access. METHODS: Using geocoded tobacco retail licensing data from 2010 to 2022, Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson panel models estimated the association between policy implementation in 2018 and retailer density per 1,000 population, controlling for neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors. Data were analyzed in 2023. RESULTS: The number of tobacco retail licenses decreased from 9,304 in 2010 to 5,107 in 2022, with the rate of decline significantly accelerating post-policy (-14·2% versus -34·2%). Policy effects were stronger in districts with lower income and greater proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents. CONCLUSIONS: NYC's policy substantially reduced tobacco retailer density and appeared to close longstanding patterns of inequity in tobacco access, serving as a rare example of a tobacco control policy that may effectively reduce tobacco-related disparities. This emergent approach to restructure tobacco retail in communities may reach populations that have not benefitted from traditional tobacco control policies and should be considered by other localities.

Sexual Violence Among Higher Education Students in the United Kingdom: Results from the Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences Study.

Sexual violence (SV) experienced by higher education students is a prevalent public health problem. Collecting data on SV through self-report surveys in higher education institutions (HEIs) is essential for estimating the scope of the problem, the first step to adequately resourcing and implementing prevention and response programming and policies. However, in the United Kingdom, data is limited. We used data from the cross-sectional Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences survey, administered to all students at a university in the United Kingdom in May 2021 (n = 25,820), to estimate the past year prevalence of SV. We analyzed data from respondents who answered at least one question on SV (n = 1,318) and found that 20.5% of respondents experienced at least one act of attempted or forced sexual touching or rape, and 52.7% of respondents experienced at least one act of sexual harassment (SH). We found that women experienced the highest rates of SV. Attempted forced sexual touching was far more common than forced sexual touching, or rape. Sexist remarks or jokes were the most common act of SH. Most acts of SV took place at the university. These findings reveal that the prevalence of SV in HEIs in the United Kingdom could be far higher than what is experienced in the general population. While this study reflects the context in only one institution, it underlines the need for continued monitoring to develop rigorous, evidence-based, and targeted prevention and response strategies.

The Prevalence of Sexual Assault Among Higher Education Students: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analyses.

Sexual assault among higher education students has detrimental impacts on the health and educational outcomes of survivors. This systematic review aims to describe and synthesize the available quantitative evidence on sexual assault prevalence among this population. We searched Medline, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ERIC, and CINAHL for studies published in English, French, Italian, and Spanish from database inception to August 2020 (updated May 2022). We screened studies using prespecified inclusion criteria for the population and context (registered higher education students), condition (self-reported sexual assault), and study design (quantitative survey). The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist was used to assess study quality. Prevalence estimates disaggregated by type of sexual assault, gender identity, and world region were meta-analyzed using a random-effects model and reported following PRISMA guidance. We identified 131 articles, from 21 different countries. The meta-analyzed prevalence of sexual assault was 17.5% for women, 7.8% for men, and 18.1% for transgender and gender diverse people. Four types of sexual assault were identified: rape, attempted rape, forced sexual touching, and coercive sex. Forced sexual touching was the most common act experienced. The African Region had the highest prevalence estimates for women's sexual assault, and the Western Pacific region had the highest prevalence estimates for men's sexual assault. Higher education institutions, especially those outside of the United States, should commit to the implementation of surveys to monitor sexual assault prevalence and dedicate increased resources to supporting student survivors of sexual assault.

Are school-based interventions to prevent dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence equally effective for all students? Systematic review and equity analysis of moderation analyses in randomised trials.

School-based interventions for the prevention of dating and relationship violence (DRV) and gender-based violence (GBV) take advantage of universal opportunities for intervention. Information on differential effectiveness of interventions is important to assess if they ameliorate or worsen social gradients in specific outcomes. This is especially important in DRV and GBV prevention given the gendered context of these behaviours and their common aetiologies in patriarchal gender norms, and social acceptance in school contexts of sexual harassment, such as catcalling or unwanted groping. We undertook a systematic review of moderation analyses in randomised trials of school-based interventions for DRV and GBV prevention. We searched 21 databases and used supplementary search methods without regard to publication type, language or year of publication, and synthesised moderation tests relating to equity-relevant characteristics (principally sex and prior history of the outcome) for DRV and GBV perpetration and victimisation. Across 23 included outcome evaluations, programme effects on DRV victimisation were not moderated by gender or prior experience of DRV victimisation, but DRV perpetration outcomes were greater for boys, particularly for emotional and physical DRV perpetration. Findings for GBV outcomes were counterintuitive. Our findings suggest that practitioners should carefully monitor local intervention effectiveness and equity to ensure that interventions are working as intended. However, one of the most surprising findings from our analysis-with clear relevance for uncertainties in practice-was that differential impacts by sexuality or sexual minority status were not frequently evaluated.

Self-Report Survey Measures of Alcohol-Impaired Driving: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol-impaired driving is a major contributor to motor vehicle crash deaths and injury. Many survey studies include self-report measures of alcohol-impaired driving, but no guidance is available to help researchers select from among available measures. The aims of this systematic review were to compile a list of measures that researchers have used previously, to compare performance between measures, and to identify the measures with highest validity and reliability. METHOD: Literature searches of PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science identified studies that assessed alcohol-impaired driving behavior through self-report. The measures from each study and, if available, indices of reliability or validity were extracted. Using the measures' text, we developed 10 codes to group similar measures and compare them. For example, the "alcohol effects" code refers to driving while feeling dizzy or lightheaded after drinking, and the "drink count" code pertains to the number of drinks someone consumed before driving. For measures with multiple items, each item was categorized separately. RESULTS: After screening according to the eligibility criteria, 41 articles were included in the review. Thirteen articles reported on reliability. No articles reported on validity. The self-report measures with the highest reliability coefficients contained items from multiple codes, namely alcohol effects and drink count. CONCLUSIONS: Self-report alcohol-impaired driving measures with multiple items evaluating distinct aspects of alcohol-impaired driving show better reliability than measures using a single item. Future work investigating the validity of these measures is needed to determine the best approach for conducting self-report research in this area.

Trends in alcohol-impaired crashes in California, 2016 to 2021: A time series analysis for alcohol involvement and crash distribution among demographic subgroups.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and control measures changed alcohol consumption in the United States (US) and globally. Before the pandemic, alcohol-impaired crashes contributed to approximately one-third of all road traffic crash injuries and fatalities nationally. We examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crashes and examined differences in alcohol-involved crashes across various subgroups. METHODS: The University of California Berkeley Transportation Injury Mapping Systems provided information on all crashes reported to the California Highway Patrol from January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2021. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models applied to weekly time series data, we estimated the effect of California's first mandatory statewide shelter-in-place order (March 19, 2020) on crashes per 100,000 population. We also examined crash subgroups according to crash severity, sex, race/ethnicity, age, and alcohol involvement. RESULTS: In California, the mean crash rate per week before the pandemic (January 1, 2016-March 18, 2020) was 9.5 crashes per 100,000 population, and 10.3% of those were alcohol-involved. After the initiation of the COVID-19 stay-at-home order, the percentage of crashes that were alcohol-involved rose to 12.7%. Overall, the crash rate across California decreased significantly (-4.6 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: -5.3, -3.9), including across all examined subgroups, with the greatest decrease among the least severe crashes. However, there was a 2.3% absolute increase in the proportion of crashes that were alcohol-involved (0.02 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The initiation of a COVID-19 stay-at-home ordinance in California was associated with a substantial decrease in overall crash rates. While crashes have returned to pre-pandemic levels, alcohol-involved crashes remain elevated. The initiation of the stay-at-home order significantly increased alcohol-impaired driving, which has remained elevated.

Analysis of "Stand Your Ground" Self-defense Laws and Statewide Rates of Homicides and Firearm Homicides.

Importance: Most US states have amended self-defense laws to enhance legal immunities for individuals using deadly force in public. Despite concerns that "stand your ground" (SYG) laws unnecessarily encourage the use of deadly violence, their impact on violent deaths and how this varies across states and demographic groups remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate the association of SYG laws with homicide and firearm homicide, nationally and by state, while considering variation by the race, age, and sex of individuals who died by homicide. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a controlled, multiple-baseline and -location interrupted time series design, using natural variation in the timings and locations of SYG laws to assess associations. Changes in homicide and firearm homicide were modeled using Poisson regression analyses within a generalized additive model framework. Analyses included all US states that enacted SYG laws between 2000 and 2016 and states that did not have SYG laws enacted during the full study period, 1999 to 2017. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to December 2020. Exposures: SYG self-defense laws enacted by statute between January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were statewide monthly rates of homicide and firearm-related homicide (per 100 000 persons) from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2017, grouped by characteristics (ie, race, age, sex) of individuals who died by homicide. Results: Forty-one states were analyzed, including 23 states that enacted SYG laws during the study period and 18 states that did not have SYG laws, with 248 358 homicides (43.7% individuals aged 20-34 years; 77.9% men and 22.1% women), including 170 659 firearm homicides. SYG laws were associated with a mean national increase of 7.8% in monthly homicide rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR],1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.12; P < .001) and 8.0% in monthly firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; P = .002). SYG laws were not associated with changes in the negative controls of suicide (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-1.01) or firearm suicide (IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02). Increases in violent deaths varied across states, with the largest increases (16.2% to 33.5%) clustering in the South (eg, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana). There were no differential associations of SYG laws by demographic group. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that adoption of SYG laws across the US was associated with increases in violent deaths, deaths that could potentially have been avoided.

Ride-Hailing and Road Traffic Crashes: A Critical Review.

Ride-hailing businesses, including Uber and Lyft, have reshaped road traffic since they first began operating in the United States approximately a decade ago. It follows that ride-hailing may also alter the incidence and distribution of road traffic crash injuries and deaths. The available evidence relating ride-hailing to crashes is critically reviewed in this article. We present a theoretical model that synthesizes the hypothesized mechanisms, and we identify common methodological challenges and suggest priorities for future research. Mixed results have been reported for the overall incidence of road traffic crash injuries and deaths, likely due to heterogeneous impacts on vehicular traffic flow (e.g., increasing the volume of vehicles); on vehicle-, person-, and event-level characteristics (e.g., reducing alcohol-impaired driver crashes); on road-user types (e.g., increasing pedestrian crashes); and on environmental conditions (e.g., reducing crashes most substantially where public transit access is poorest). The lack of a well-developed theory of human mobility and methodological challenges that are common to many ecological studies impede exploration of these sources of moderation. Innovative solutions are required to explicate ride-hailing's heterogeneous impacts, to guide policy that can take advantage of the public health benefits of ride-hailing, and to ensure that research keeps pace with technological advances that continue to reshape road traffic use.

Trajectories of Exposure to Neighborhood Deprivation and the Odds of Experiencing Intimate Partner Violence Among Women: Are There Sensitive Periods for Exposure?

Neighborhood disadvantage is commonly hypothesized to be positively associated with intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. However, longitudinal investigation of this association has been limited, with no studies on whether the timing of exposure matters. We used data from 2,115 women in the UK-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Exposure to neighborhood-level deprivation was measured at 10-time points from baseline (gestation) until age 18. Family-level socioeconomic characteristics were measured at baseline. At age 21, participants self-reported whether they had experienced any IPV since age 18. We used a three-step bias-adjusted longitudinal latent class analysis to investigate how different patterns of neighborhood deprivation exposure were associated with the odds of experiencing IPV. A total of 32% of women experienced any IPV between ages 18 and 21. Women who consistently lived in deprived neighborhoods (chronic high deprivation) or spent their early childhoods in more deprived neighborhoods and later moved to less deprived neighborhoods (decreasing deprivation) had higher odds of experiencing IPV compared to those who consistently lived in non-deprived neighborhoods. The odds of experiencing IPV did not consistently differ between women who lived in non-deprived neighborhoods during early childhood and later moved to deprived neighborhoods (increasing deprivation) and those stably in non-deprived neighborhoods. Living in more deprived neighborhoods during early childhood, regardless of later exposure, was associated with higher odds of experiencing later IPV. This is congruent with prior research demonstrating the persistent effects of early neighborhood disadvantage on health and well-being. Replication, and underlying mechanisms, should be assessed across contexts.

Risk and Protective Factors for Men's Sexual Violence Against Women at Higher Education Institutions: A Systematic and Meta-Analytic Review of the Longitudinal Evidence.

Sexual violence among higher education institution (HEI) students is a growing public health concern. To date, there is little evidence on how to effectively prevent sexual violence among this demographic. This study is the first systematic review to meta-analyze all available evidence for risk and protective factors of sexual violence perpetrated by men at HEIs. We searched four electronic databases and multiple gray literature sources. We screened studies using prespecified selection criteria for the sample (HEI students who identify as men), outcome (sexual violence perpetration against peers), and study design (quantitative and longitudinal). Longitudinal studies provide the most rigorous available evidence on risk and protective factors. We identified 16 studies and meta-analyzed eight different risk factors: alcohol consumption, hostility toward women, delinquency, fraternity membership, history of sexual violence perpetration, rape myth acceptance, age at first sex, and peer approval of sexual violence. We deemed included studies to have a varied risk of bias and the overall quality of evidence to range from moderate to high. History of sexual violence perpetration (perpetration prior to entering an HEI) emerged as the strongest predictor of sexual violence perpetration at HEIs, complicating the notion that HEI environments themselves foster a culture of sexual violence. Peer support for sexual violence predicted perpetration while individual rape-supporting beliefs did not. Our findings suggest that interventions targeting peer norms (e.g., bystander interventions) and early sexual violence prevention and consent interventions for high school and elementary school students could be effective in reducing and preventing sexual violence at HEIs.

Trends in inpatient care for psychiatric disorders in NHS hospitals across England, 1998/99-2019/20: an observational time series analysis.

PURPOSE: It is unclear how hospitals are responding to the mental health needs of the population in England, against a backdrop of diminishing resources. We aimed to document patterns in hospital activity by psychiatric disorder and how these have changed over the last 22 years. METHODS: In this observational time series analysis, we used routinely collected data on all NHS hospitals in England from 1998/99 to 2019/20. Trends in hospital admissions and bed days for psychiatric disorders were smoothed using negative binomial regression models with year as the exposure and rates (per 1000 person-years) as the outcome. When linear trends were not appropriate, we fitted segmented negative binomial regression models with one change-point. We stratified by gender and age group [children (0-14 years); adults (15 years +)]. RESULTS: Hospital admission rates and bed days for all psychiatric disorders decreased by 28.4 and 38.3%, respectively. Trends were not uniform across psychiatric disorders or age groups. Admission rates mainly decreased over time, except for anxiety and eating disorders which doubled over the 22-year period, significantly increasing by 2.9% (AAPC = 2.88; 95% CI: 2.61-3.16; p < 0.001) and 3.4% (AAPC = 3.44; 95% CI: 3.04-3.85; p < 0.001) each year. Inpatient hospital activity among children showed more increasing and pronounced trends than adults, including an increase of 212.9% for depression, despite a 63.8% reduction for adults with depression during the same period. CONCLUSION: In the last 22 years, there have been overall reductions in hospital activity for psychiatric disorders. However, some disorders showed pronounced increases, pointing to areas of growing need for inpatient psychiatric care, especially among children.

Rideshare Trips and Alcohol-Involved Motor Vehicle Crashes in Chicago.

OBJECTIVE: Rideshare companies such as Uber and Lyft have substantially changed transportation markets in the United States and globally. The aim of this study was to examine whether ridesharing is associated with reductions in alcohol-involved crashes. METHOD: This case-series study used highly spatially and temporally resolved trip-level rideshare data and motor vehicle crash data from the Chicago Data Portal from November 2018 to December 2019. The units of analysis were motor vehicle crashes in Chicago. Events of interest were 962 crashes that police indicated were alcohol involved. The comparison group was 962 non-alcohol-involved crashes that occurred in the same census tract, matched 1:1. The exposure of interest was the density per square mile of rideshare trips that were in progress at the time of the crash, calculated using a kernel density function around the estimated route paths of active trips. A conditional logistic regression compared alcohol involvement to rideshare trip density while adjusting for matching and relevant time-varying covariates (taxi trips, precipitation, temperature, holidays). RESULTS: Mean rideshare trip density was 69.0 per square mile (SD = 129.7) at the time and location of alcohol-involved crashes and 105.7 per square mile (SD = 192.6) at the time and location of non-alcohol-involved crashes. After controlling for covariates, the conditional logistic regression model identified that a standard deviation increase in rideshare trips per square mile at the crash location was associated with 23% decreased odds that the crash location was alcohol involved (odds ratio = 0.771; 95% confidence interval [0.594, 0.878]). CONCLUSIONS: Ridesharing may replace motor vehicle trips by alcohol-impaired drivers.

Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences (OUR SPACE) cross-sectional survey: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Sexual violence among higher education students is a public health concern, threatening the general safety of students, often with significant physical and mental health implications for victims. Establishing the prevalence estimates of sexual violence at higher education institutions (HEIs) is essential for designing and resourcing responses to sexual violence, including monitoring the effectiveness of prevention initiatives and institutional programmes. Yet, to date, there have been no rigorous studies assessing prevalence of sexual violence at HEIs in the UK. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Informed by guidance from Universities UK, the University of Oxford administration and the related student advocacy groups working within the University, Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences is a cross-sectional survey of all undergraduate and graduate students over the age of 18 enrolled at the University of Oxford, UK. The survey design uses a complete sampling approach and measures adapted from previous campus climate surveys in the USA as well as the Sexual Experiences Survey (USA). The analysis will estimate the prevalence of sexual harassment and sexual violence perpetration and victimisation, and will examine whether ethnicity, gender identity, and sexual orientation are associated with these primary outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained by the Social Sciences and Humanities Interdivisional Research Ethics Committee at the University of Oxford which is a subcommittee of the Central University Research Ethics Committee (ref no.: R73805/RE001). The research team will disseminate findings through peer-reviewed journal articles and conference presentations. A report cowritten by authors and stakeholders will be shared with Oxford University students.

Effectiveness of cash-plus programmes on early childhood outcomes compared to cash transfers alone: A systematic review and meta-analysis in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: To strengthen the impact of cash transfers, these interventions have begun to be packaged as cash-plus programmes, combining cash with additional transfers, interventions, or services. The intervention's complementary ("plus") components aim to improve cash transfer effectiveness by targeting mediating outcomes or the availability of supplies or services. This study examined whether cash-plus interventions for infants and children <5 are more effective than cash alone in improving health and well-being. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Forty-two databases, donor agencies, grey literature sources, and trial registries were systematically searched, yielding 5,097 unique articles (as of 06 April 2021). Randomised and quasi-experimental studies were eligible for inclusion if the intervention package aimed to improve outcomes for children <5 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and combined a cash transfer with an intervention targeted to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (No Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG4 (Education), or SDG16 (Violence Prevention), had at least one group receiving cash-only, examined outcomes related to child-focused SDGs, and was published in English. Risk of bias was appraised using Cochrane Risk of Bias and ROBINS-I Tools. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for a cash-plus intervention category when there were at least 3 trials with the same outcome. The review was preregistered with PROSPERO (CRD42018108017). Seventeen studies were included in the review and 11 meta-analysed. Most interventions operated during the first 1,000 days of the child's life and were conducted in communities facing high rates of poverty and often, food insecurity. Evidence was found for 10 LMICs, where most researchers used randomised, longitudinal study designs (n = 14). Five intervention categories were identified, combining cash with nutrition behaviour change communication (BCC, n = 7), food transfers (n = 3), primary healthcare (n = 2), psychosocial stimulation (n = 7), and child protection (n = 4) interventions. Comparing cash-plus to cash alone, meta-analysis results suggest Cash + Food Transfers are more effective in improving height-for-age (d = 0.08 SD (0.03, 0.14), p = 0.02) with significantly reduced odds of stunting (OR = 0.82 (0.74, 0.92), p = 0.01), but had no added impact in improving weight-for-height (d = -0.13 (-0.42, 0.16), p = 0.24) or weight-for-age z-scores (d = -0.06 (-0.28, 0.15), p = 0.43). There was no added impact above cash alone from Cash + Nutrition BCC on anthropometrics; Cash + Psychosocial Stimulation on cognitive development; or Cash + Child Protection on parental use of violent discipline or exclusive positive parenting. Narrative synthesis evidence suggests that compared to cash alone, Cash + Primary Healthcare may have greater impacts in reducing mortality and Cash + Food Transfers in preventing acute malnutrition in crisis contexts. The main limitations of this review are the few numbers of studies that compared cash-plus interventions against cash alone and the potentially high heterogeneity between study findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that few cash-plus combinations were more effective than cash transfers alone. Cash combined with food transfers and primary healthcare show the greatest signs of added effectiveness. More research is needed on when and how cash-plus combinations are more effective than cash alone, and work in this field must ensure that these interventions improve outcomes among the most vulnerable children.

Effects of Laws Expanding Civilian Rights to Use Deadly Force in Self-Defense on Violence and Crime: A Systematic Review.

Background. Since 2005, most US states have expanded civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense outside the home. In most cases, legislation has included removing the duty to retreat anywhere one may legally be, commonly known as stand-your-ground laws. The extent to which these laws affect public health and safety is widely debated in public and policy discourse.Objectives. To synthesize the available evidence on the impacts and social inequities associated with changing civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense on violence, injury, crime, and firearm-related outcomes.Search Methods. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts, National Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts, Education Resources Information Center, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, Google Scholar, National Bureau of Economic Research working papers, and SocArXiv; harvested references of included studies; and consulted with experts to identify studies until April 2020.Selection Criteria. Eligible studies quantitatively estimated the association between laws that expanded or restricted the right to use deadly force in self-defense and population or subgroup outcomes among civilians with a comparator.Data Collection and Analysis. Two reviewers extracted study data using a common form. We assessed study quality using the Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized Studies of Interventions tools adapted for (controlled) before-after studies. To account for data dependencies, we conducted graphical syntheses (forest plots and harvest plots) to summarize the evidence on impacts and inequities associated with changing self-defense laws.Main Results. We identified 25 studies that estimated population-level impacts of laws expanding civilian rights to use deadly force in self-defense, all of which focused on stand-your-ground or other expansions to self-defense laws in the United States. Studies were scored as having serious or critical risk of bias attributable to confounding. Risk of bias was low across most other domains (i.e., selection, missing data, outcome, and reporting biases). Stand-your-ground laws were associated with no change to small increases in violent crime (total and firearm homicide, aggravated assault, robbery) on average across states. Florida-based studies showed robust increases (24% to 45%) in firearm and total homicide while self-defense claims under stand-your-ground law were more often denied when victims were White, especially when claimants were racial minorities.Author's Conclusions. The existing evidence contradicts claims that expanding self-defense laws deters violent crime across the United States. In at least some contexts, including Florida, stand-your-ground laws are associated with increases in violence, and there are racial inequities in the application of these laws.Public Health Implications. In some US states, most notably Florida, stand-your-ground laws may have harmed public health and safety and exacerbated social inequities. Our findings highlight the need for scientific evidence on both population and equity impacts of self-defense laws to guide legislative action that promotes public health and safety for all.Trial Registration. Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/uz68e).

Firearm Homicide Incidence, Within-state Firearm Laws, and Interstate Firearm Laws in US Counties.

BACKGROUND: Firearm homicides occur less frequently in US states with more firearm control laws. However, firearms are easily transported across state lines, and laws in one location may affect firearm violence in another. This study examined associations between within-state firearm laws and firearm homicide while accounting for interference from laws in other nearby states. METHODS: The units of analysis were 3,107 counties in the 48 contiguous US states, arrayed in 15 yearly panels for 2000 to 2014 (n = 46,605). The dependent measure was firearm homicides accessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Compressed Mortality Data. The main independent measures were counts of firearm laws and the proportion of laws within categories (e.g., background checks, child access prevention laws). We calculated these measures for interstate laws using a geographic gravity function between county centroids. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models related within-state firearm laws and interstate firearm laws to firearm homicides. RESULTS: There were 172,726 firearm homicides in the included counties over the 15 years. States had between 3 and 100 firearm laws. Within-state firearm laws (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.995, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.992, 0.997) and interstate firearm laws (IRR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.990, 0.996) were independently associated with fewer firearm homicides, and associations for within-state laws were strongest where interstate laws were weakest. CONCLUSIONS: Additional firearm laws are associated with fewer firearm homicides both within the states where the laws are enacted and elsewhere in the United States. Interference from interstate firearm laws may bias associations for studies of within-state laws and firearm homicide.

Ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes: a spatial ecological case-crossover study of trip-level data.

BACKGROUND: Ridesharing services (eg, Uber, Lyft) have facilitated over 11 billion trips worldwide since operations began in 2010, but the impacts of ridesharing on motor vehicle injury crashes are largely unknown. - METHODS: This spatial ecological case-cross over used highly spatially and temporally resolved trip-level rideshare data and incident-level injury crash data for New York City (NYC) for 2017 and 2018. The space-time units of analysis were NYC taxi zone polygons partitioned into hours. For each taxi zone-hour we calculated counts of rideshare trip origins and rideshare trip destinations. Case units were taxi zone-hours in which any motor vehicle injury crash occurred, and matched control units were the same taxi zone from 1 week before (-168 hours) and 1 week after (+168 hours) the case unit. Conditional logistic regression models estimated the odds of observing a crash (separated into all injury crashes, motorist injury crashes, pedestrian injury crashes, cyclist injury crashes) relative to rideshare trip counts. Models controlled for taxi trips and other theoretically relevant covariates (eg, precipitation, holidays). RESULTS: Each additional 100 rideshare trips originating within a taxi zone-hour was associated with 4.6% increased odds of observing any injury crash compared with the control taxi zone-hours (OR=1.046; 95% CI 1.032 to 1.060). Associations were detected for motorist injury and pedestrian injury crashes, but not cyclist injury crashes. Findings were substantively similar for analyses conducted using trip destinations as the exposure of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Ridesharing contributes to increased injury burden due to motor vehicle crashes, particularly for motorist and pedestrian injury crashes at trip nodes.

Can synthetic controls improve causal inference in interrupted time series evaluations of public health interventions?

Interrupted time series designs are a valuable quasi-experimental approach for evaluating public health interventions. Interrupted time series extends a single group pre-post comparison by using multiple time points to control for underlying trends. But history bias-confounding by unexpected events occurring at the same time of the intervention-threatens the validity of this design and limits causal inference. Synthetic control methodology, a popular data-driven technique for deriving a control series from a pool of unexposed populations, is increasingly recommended. In this paper, we evaluate if and when synthetic controls can strengthen an interrupted time series design. First, we summarize the main observational study designs used in evaluative research, highlighting their respective uses, strengths, biases and design extensions for addressing these biases. Second, we outline when the use of synthetic controls can strengthen interrupted time series studies and when their combined use may be problematic. Third, we provide recommendations for using synthetic controls in interrupted time series and, using a real-world example, we illustrate the potential pitfalls of using a data-driven approach to identify a suitable control series. Finally, we emphasize the importance of theoretical approaches for informing study design and argue that synthetic control methods are not always well suited for generating a counterfactual that minimizes critical threats to interrupted time series studies. Advances in synthetic control methods bring new opportunities to conduct rigorous research in evaluating public health interventions. However, incorporating synthetic controls in interrupted time series studies may not always nullify important threats to validity nor improve causal inference.

Assessing the impact of a local community subsidised rideshare programme on road traffic injuries: an evaluation of the Evesham Saving Lives programme.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol-related vehicle crashes pose a significant challenge to public health in suburban communities. The Evesham Saving Lives programme operated between late 2015 and 2019 in two townships (Evesham and Voorhees) in New Jersey. The programme subsidised rideshare (eg, Uber) trips from bars and restaurants between the hours of 21:00 and 02:00 to prevent alcohol-related traffic injuries. METHODS: This study used data from the New Jersey Department of Transportation to examine changes to rates of injury crashes between 2010 and 2018. We used an ecological difference-in-difference design with Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models to compare rates of injury crashes between participating municipalities (n=2) and non-participating municipalities (n=75). Sensitivity analyses included comparison with a weighted synthetic control series. RESULTS: The Evesham Saving Lives programme was associated with 18% fewer injury crashes overall (IRR=0.82, 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.76, 0.88). Reductions in crashes were estimated to be greatest at night (IRR=0.62, 95% CrI: 0.48, 0.79), with moderate reductions in the afternoon (IRR=0.80, 95% CrI: 0.72, 0.88). We estimate that around three lives were saved (95% CrI: 2, 5) and around 371 injuries were prevented (95% CrI: 204, 625), potentially making considerable savings in terms of medical and economic expenses. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the claim that improving the convenience and reducing the costs of alternative night-time transportation can prevent road traffic injuries. Future studies should aim to replicate these analyses in programmes that have been implemented in other suburban communities across the US.