Does the cost of cancer care for people in prison differ from those in the general population? Analysis of matched English cancer registry and hospital records.

Background: People in prison experience poorer mental and physical health compared to their peers in the general population. The causes are multi-dimensional ranging from lifestyle factors to poorer access to healthcare. Little is known about cancer in people in prison or how the cost of their care compares to the general population. Methods: Data on people diagnosed with cancer while in English prisons were identified in National Cancer Registration dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) for the years 2012-2017. General population matched patients were identified using a 1-5 ratio, based on age, gender, year of diagnosis, cancer type and disease stage. Outpatient and inpatient HES data up to six-months from diagnosis were costed using NHS Reference costs and inflated to 2017/2018 costs. Findings: 879 prison and 4326 general population cancer diagnoses were identified in HES. The adjusted six-month cost of cancer care was significantly lower for people in prison (-£1216.95% confidence interval (CI) -1638 to -795), driven by fewer outpatient attendances. However, people diagnosed in prison had higher emergency care costs (£497.95% CI 375-619). Security escorts further increased the total cost of care. Interpretation: Following a cancer diagnosis, people in English prisons have significantly lower planned care costs, but higher emergency care costs and an overall higher cost due to security escorts. Further work is required to identify ways of improving cancer care for people in prisons to ensure it is equivalent to that received by the general population. Funding: National Institute for Health and Social Care Research 16/52/53.

Cancer in prison: barriers and enablers to diagnosis and treatment.

Background: Approximately 82,000 people are in prison annually in England and Wales. Limited research has investigated cancer in this population and none has explored experiences of imprisoned people with cancer. This study aimed to address this gap. Methods: We conducted 55 semi-structured, qualitative, audio-recorded interviews with: imprisoned people with cancer (n = 24), custodial staff (n = 6), prison healthcare staff (n = 16) and oncology specialists (n = 9). Data were collected 07/10/2019-20/03/2020. Patients were recruited by prison healthcare staff and interviews were conducted face-to-face. Professionals were recruited via professional networks and interviews were conducted face-to-face or via telephone. Transcribed interviews were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. We also analysed relevant National Cancer Patient Experience Survey (NCPES) questions for those diagnosed in prison (n = 78) and in the general population (n = 390). Findings: Our findings highlight the complexities of cancer care for imprisoned people. We identified three core themes: control and choice, communication, and care and custody. Whilst people in prison follow a similar diagnostic pathway to those in the community, additional barriers to diagnosis exist including health literacy, the General Practitioner appointment booking system and communication between prison and oncology staff. Tensions between control and choice in prison impacted aspects of cancer care experience such as symptom management and accessing cancer information. NCPES results supported the qualitative findings and showed people in prison reported significantly poorer experiences than in the general population. Interpretation: Our findings demonstrate the complexity of cancer care in custodial settings, identifying barriers and enablers to equitable cancer care provision and offering insights on how to improve care for this population. Funding: National Institute for Health and Social Care Research Delivery Research Programme 16/52/53 and Strategic Priorities Fund 2019/20 Research England via University of Surrey.

Specialist physiotherapy for functional motor disorder in England and Scotland (Physio4FMD): a pragmatic, multicentre, phase 3 randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Functional motor disorder-the motor variant of functional neurological disorder-is a disabling condition that is commonly associated with poor health outcomes. Pathophysiological models have inspired new treatment approaches such as specialist physiotherapy, although evidence from large randomised controlled trials is absent. We aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness of a specialist physiotherapy intervention for functional motor disorder compared with treatment as usual. METHODS: In this pragmatic, multicentre, phase 3 randomised controlled trial at 11 hospitals in England and Scotland, adults with a clinically definite diagnosis of functional motor disorder, diagnosed by a neurologist, were included. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1, stratified by site) using a remote web-based application to either specialist physiotherapy (a protocolised intervention of nine sessions plus follow-up) or treatment as usual (referral to local community neurological physiotherapy). Individuals working on data collection and analysis were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was the physical functioning domain of the 36-item short form health questionnaire (SF36) at 12 months after randomisation. The primary analysis followed a modified intention-to-treat principle, using a complete case approach; participants who were unable to receive their randomised treatment due to the suspension of health-care services during the COVID-19 pandemic were excluded from the primary analysis. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, ISRCTN56136713, and is completed. FINDINGS: Recruitment occurred between Oct 19, 2018, and March 11, 2020, pausing during the COVID-19 lockdown, and resuming from Aug 3, 2021, to Jan 31, 2022. Of 355 participants who were enrolled, 179 were randomly assigned to specialist physiotherapy and 176 to treatment as usual. 89 participants were excluded from the primary analysis due to COVID-19 interruption to treatment (27 were assigned to specialist physiotherapy and 62 to treatment as usual). After accounting for withdrawals (n=11) and loss to follow-up (n=14), the primary analysis included data from 241 participants (138 [91%] assigned specialist physiotherapy and 103 [90%] assigned treatment as usual). Physical functioning, as assessed by SF36, did not differ significantly between groups (adjusted mean difference 3·5, 95% CI -2·3 to 9·3; p=0·23). There were no serious adverse events related to the trial interventions. 35 serious adverse events were recorded in the specialist physiotherapy group by 24 participants (17·0%), and 24 serious adverse events were recorded in the treatment as usual group by 18 participants (17·0%); one death occurred in the specialist physiotherapy group (cause of death was recorded as suicide). All were considered unrelated to specialist physiotherapy. INTERPRETATION: Although more participants who were assigned specialist physiotherapy self-rated their motor symptoms as improved and had better scores on subjective measures of mental health, the intervention did not result in better self-reported physical functioning at 12 months. Both the specialist and community neurological physiotherapy appeared to be a safe and a valued treatment for selected patients with functional motor disorder. Future research should continue to refine interventions for people with functional motor disorder and develop evidence-based methods to guide treatment triage decisions. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research and Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Is Economic Evaluation and Care Commissioning Focused on Achieving the Same Outcomes? Resource-Allocation Considerations and Challenges Using England as a Case Study.

Commissioning describes the process of contracting appropriate care services to address pre-identified needs through pre-agreed payment structures. Outcomes-based commissioning (i.e., paying services for pre-agreed outcomes) shares a common goal with economic evaluation: achieving value for money for relevant outcomes (e.g., health) achieved from a finite budget. We describe considerations and challenges as to the practical role of relevant outcomes for evaluation and commissioning, seeking to bridge a gap between economic evaluation evidence and care commissioning. We describe conceptual (e.g., what are 'relevant' outcomes) alongside practical considerations (e.g., quantifying and using relevant endpoint or surrogate outcomes) and pertinent issues when linking outcomes to commissioning-based payment mechanisms, using England as a case study. Economic evaluation often focuses on a single endpoint health-focused maximand, e.g., quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), whereas commissioning often focuses on activity-based surrogate outcomes (e.g., health monitoring), as easier-to-measure key performance indicators that are more acceptable (e.g., by clinicians) and amenable to being linked with payment structures. However, payments linked to endpoint and/or surrogate outcomes can lead to market inefficiencies; for example, when surrogates do not have the intended causal effect on endpoint outcomes or when service activity focuses on only people who can achieve prespecified payment-linked outcomes. Accounting for and explaining direct links from commissioners' payment structures to surrogate and then endpoint economic outcomes is a vital step to bridging a gap between economic evaluation approaches and commissioning. Decision-analytic models could aid this but they must be designed to account for relevant surrogate and endpoint outcomes, the payments assigned to such outcomes, and their interaction with the system commissioners purport to influence.

Cost-effectiveness of peer-supported self-management for people discharged from a mental health crisis team: methodological challenges and recommendations.

Background: Mental health acute crisis episodes are associated with high inpatient costs. Self-management interventions may reduce readmission by enabling individuals to manage their condition. Delivery of such interventions by Peer Support Workers (PSWs) may be cost-effective. CORE, a randomized control trial of a PSW self-management intervention compared to usual care, found a significant reduction in admissions to acute mental healthcare for participants receiving the intervention. This paper aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention over 12 months from a mental health service perspective. Analysis methods of increasing complexity were used to account for data missingness and distribution. Methods: Participants were recruited from six crisis resolution teams in England from 12 March 2014 to 3 July 2015 (trial registration ISRCTN: 01027104). Resource use was collected from patient records at baseline and 12 months. The EQ-5D-3L was collected at baseline and 4 and 18 months, and linear interpolation was used to calculate 12-month values for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The primary analysis of adjusted mean incremental costs and QALYs for complete cases are calculated separately using OLS regression. Secondly, a complete-case non-parametric two-stage bootstrap (TSB) was performed. The impacts of missing data and skewed cost data were explored using multiple imputation using chained equations and general linear models, respectively. Results: Four hundred and forty-one participants were recruited to CORE; 221 randomized to the PSW intervention and 220 to usual care plus workbook. The probability that the PSW intervention was cost-effective compared with the workbook plus usual care control at 12 months varied with the method used, and ranged from 57% to 96% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Discussion: There was a minimum 57% chance that the intervention was cost-effective compared to the control using 12-month costs and QALYs. The probability varied by 40% when methods were employed to account for the relationship between costs and QALYs, but which restricted the sample to those who provided both complete cost and utility data. Caution should therefore be applied when selecting methods for the evaluation of healthcare interventions that aim to increase precision but may introduce bias if missing data are heavily unbalanced between costs and outcomes.

Estimating Cost-Effectiveness Using Alternative Preference-Based Scores and Within-Trial Methods: Exploring the Dynamics of the Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Using the EQ-5D 5-Level Version and Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and subsequent cost-effectiveness estimates based on the more physical health-focused EQ-5D 5-level version (EQ-5D-5L) value set for England or cross-walked EQ-5D 3-level version UK value set scores or more mental health recovery-focused Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index (ReQoL-UI), when using alternative within-trial statistical methods. We describe possible reasons for the different QALY estimates based on the interaction between item scores, health state profiles, preference-based scores, and mathematical and statistical methods chosen. METHODS: QALYs are calculated over 8 weeks from a case study 2:1 (intervention:control) randomized controlled trial in patients with anxiety or depression. Complete case and with missing cases imputed using multiple-imputation analyses are conducted, using unadjusted and regression baseline-adjusted QALYs. Cost-effectiveness is judged using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves. We use previously established psychometric results to reflect on estimated QALYs. RESULTS: A total of 361 people (241:120) were randomized. EQ-5D-5L crosswalk produced higher incremental QALYs than the value set for England or ReQoL-UI, which produced similar unadjusted QALYs, but contrasting baseline-adjusted QALYs. Probability of cost-effectiveness <£30 000 per QALY ranged from 6% (complete case ReQoL-UI baseline-adjusted QALYs) to 64.3% (multiple-imputation EQ-5D-5L crosswalk unadjusted QALYs). The control arm improved more on average than the intervention arm on the ReQoL-UI, a result not mirrored on the EQ-5D-5L nor condition-specific (Patient-Health Questionnaire-9, depression; Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, anxiety) measures. CONCLUSIONS: ReQoL-UI produced contradictory cost-effectiveness results relative to the EQ-5D-5L. The EQ-5D-5L's better responsiveness and "anxiety/depression" and "usual activities" items drove the incremental QALY results. The ReQoL-UI's single physical health item and "personal recovery" construct may have influenced its lower 8-week incremental QALY estimates in this patient sample.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Discontinuing Antidepressants in England Primary Care Patients Compared with Long-Term Maintenance: The ANTLER Study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common mental health condition with considerable negative impact on health and well-being. Although antidepressants are recommended as first-line treatment, there is limited evidence regarding the cost effectiveness of long-term maintenance antidepressants for preventing relapse. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to calculate the mean incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 12 months of discontinuing long-term antidepressant medication in well patients compared with maintenance, using patient-level trial data. METHODS: We conducted a cost-utility analysis of 478 participants from 150 UK general practices recruited to a randomised, double-blind trial (ANTLER). QALYs were calculated from EQ-5D-5L and 12-Item Short Form survey (SF-12) results, with primary analysis using the EQ-5D-5L value set for England. Resource use was collected from primary care patient electronic medical records and self-completed questionnaires capturing mental-health-related resource use. Costs were calculated by applying standard UK unit costs to resource use. Adjustments were made for baseline variables. RESULTS: Participants randomised to discontinuation had significantly worse utility scores at 3 months (- 0.032; 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.053 to - 0.011) but no significant difference in QALYs (- 0.011; 95% CI - 0.026 to 0.003) or costs (£3.11; 95% CI - 41.28 to 47.50) at 12 months. The probability that discontinuation was cost effective compared with maintenance was 12.9% at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation of antidepressants was unlikely to be cost effective compared with maintenance for currently well patients on long-term antidepressants. However, this analysis provides no information on the wider impact of antidepressants. Our findings provide information on the potential impact of discontinuing long-term maintenance antidepressants and facilitate improving guidance for shared patient-clinician decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2015-004210-26; ISRCTN number ISRCTN15969819.

Economic evaluation of a complex intervention (Engager) for prisoners with common mental health problems, near to and after release: a cost-utility and cost-consequences analysis.

BACKGROUND: People in prison experience a range of physical and mental health problems. Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of prison-based interventions presents a number of methodological challenges. We present a case study of an economic evaluation of a prison-based intervention ("Engager") to address common mental health problems. METHODS: Two hundred and eighty people were recruited from prisons in England and randomised to Engager plus usual care or usual care. Participants were followed up for 12 months following release from prison. The primary analysis is the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of Engager compared to usual care from a National Health Service (NHS) perspective with QALYs calculated using the CORE 6 Dimension. A cost-consequences analysis evaluated cross-sectoral costs and a range of outcomes. RESULTS: From an NHS perspective, Engager cost an additional £2737 per participant (95% of iterations between £1029 and £4718) with a mean QALY difference of - 0.014 (95% of iterations between - 0.045 and 0.017). For the cost-consequences, there was evidence of improved access to substance misuse services 12 months post-release (odds ratio 2.244, 95% confidence Interval 1.304-3.861). CONCLUSION: Engager provides a rare example of a cost-utility analysis conducted in prisons and the community using patient-completed measures. Although the results from this trial show no evidence that Engager is cost-effective, the results of the cost-consequences analysis suggest that follow-up beyond 12 months post-release using routine data may provide additional insights into the effectiveness of the intervention and the importance of including a wide range of costs and outcomes in prison-based economic evaluations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (ISRCTN11707331).

Effectiveness of community interventions for protecting and promoting the mental health of working-age adults experiencing financial uncertainty: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has created a period of global economic uncertainty. Financial strain, personal debt, recent job loss and housing insecurity are important risk factors for the mental health of working-age adults. Community interventions have the potential to attenuate the mental health impact of these stressors. We examined the effectiveness of community interventions for protecting and promoting the mental health of working-age adults in high-income countries during periods of financial insecurity. METHODS: Eight electronic databases were systematically screened for experimental and observational studies published since 2000 measuring the effectiveness of community interventions on mental health outcomes. We included any non-clinical intervention that aimed to address the financial, employment, food or housing insecurity of participants. A review protocol was registered on the PROSPERO database (CRD42019156364) and results are reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS: From 2326 studies screened, 15 met our inclusion criteria. Five categories of community intervention were identified: advice services colocated in healthcare settings; link worker social prescribing; telephone debt advice; food insecurity interventions; and active labour market programmes. In general, the evidence for effective and cost-effective community interventions delivered to individuals experiencing financial insecurity was lacking. From the small number of studies without a high risk of bias, there was some evidence that financial insecurity and associated mental health problems were amenable to change and differences by subpopulations were observed. CONCLUSION: There is a need for well-controlled studies and trials to better understand effective ingredients and to identify those interventions warranting wider implementation.

Staff training in positive behaviour support for behaviour that challenges in people with intellectual disability: cost-utility analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Behaviour that challenges in people with intellectual disability is associated with higher healthcare, social care and societal costs. Although behavioural therapies are widely used, there is limited evidence regarding the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). AIMS: We aimed to assess the incremental cost per QALY gained of therapist training in positive behaviour support (PBS) and treatment as usual (TAU) compared with TAU using data from a cluster randomised controlled trial (Clinical Trials.gov registration: NCT01680276). METHOD: We conducted a cost-utility analysis (cost per QALY gained) of 23 teams randomised to PBS or TAU, with a total of 246 participants followed up over 36 months. The primary analysis was from a healthcare cost perspective with a secondary analysis from a societal cost perspective. RESULTS: Over 36 months the intervention resulted in an additional 0.175 QALYs (discounted and adjusted 95% CI -0.068 to 0.418). The total cost of training in and delivery of PBS is £1598 per participant plus an additional cost of healthcare of £399 (discounted and adjusted 95% CI -603 to 1724). From a healthcare cost perspective there is an 85% probability that the intervention is cost-effective compared with TAU at a £30 000 willingness to pay for a QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high probability that training in PBS is cost-effective as the cost of training and delivery of PBS is balanced out by modest improvements in quality of life. However, staff training in PBS is not supported given we found no evidence for clinical effectiveness.

A modelling-based economic evaluation of primary-care-based fall-risk screening followed by fall-prevention intervention: a cohort-based Markov model stratified by older age groups.

BACKGROUND: fall-risk assessment with fall-prevention intervention referral for at-risk groups to avoid falls could be cost-effective from a care-payer perspective. AIMS: to model the cost-effectiveness of a fall-risk assessment (QTUG compared to TUG) with referral to one of four fall-prevention interventions (Otago, FaME, Tai Chi, home safety assessment and modification) compared to no care pathway, when the decision to screen is based on older age in a primary care setting for community-dwelling people. METHODS: a cohort-based, decision analytic Markov model was stratified by five age groupings (65-70, 70-75, 65-89, 70-89 and 75-89) to estimate cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs included fall-risk assessment, fall-prevention intervention and downstream resource use (e.g. inpatient and care home admission). Uncertainty was explored using univariate, bivariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: screening with QTUG dominates (>QALYs; 85%), relative to those aged 70-74 (~10 < 30%) or 65-69 (<10%). In the older age group, only a 10% referral uptake is required for the QTUG with FaME or Otago modelled care pathways to remain cost-effective. CONCLUSION: the highest probability of cost-effectiveness observed was a care pathway incorporating QTUG with FaME in those aged 75-89. Although the model does not fully represent current NICE Falls guidance, decision makers should still give careful consideration to implementing the aforementioned care pathway due to the modelled high probability of cost-effectiveness.

Recruitment and retention strategies in mental health trials - A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment and retention challenges are very common in mental health randomised trials. Investigators utilise different methods to improve recruitment or retention. However, evidence of the effectiveness and efficiency of these strategies in mental health has not been synthesised. This systematic review is to investigate and assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different strategies to improve recruitment and retention in mental health randomised trials. METHODS AND MATERIALS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and PsycINFO were searched from beginning of record up to July 2016. Randomised trials involving participants with mental health problems which compared different strategies for recruitment or retention were selected. Two authors independently screened identified studies for eligibility. RESULTS: A total of 5,157 citations were identified. Thirteen articles were included, 11 on recruitment and 2 on retention. Three randomised controlled trials compared different recruitment strategies, none of which found statistically significant differences between the interventional recruitment strategies and the routine recruitment methods. Retrospective comparisons of recruitment methods showed that non-web-based advertisement and recruitment by clinical research staff each have advantages in efficiency. Web-based adverts had the lowest cost per person recruited (£13.41 per person recruited). Specialised care referral cost £183.24 per person, non-web-based adverts cost £372.03 per patient and recruitment via primary care cost £407.65 for each patient. Financial incentives, abridged questionnaires and pre-notification had a positive effect on retention rates. CONCLUSION: The recruitment studies included showed differences in strategies, clinical settings, mental health conditions and study design. It is difficult to assess the overall effectiveness of any particular recruitment strategy as some strategies that worked well for a particular population may not work as well for others. Paying attention to the accessibility of information and consent materials may help improve recruitment. More research in this area is needed given its important implications.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm for people with severe mental illness (PRIMROSE).

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of two bespoke severe mental illness (SMI)-specific risk algorithms compared with standard risk algorithms for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in those with SMI. SETTING: Primary care setting in the UK. The analysis was from the National Health Service perspective. PARTICIPANTS: 1000 individuals with SMI from The Health Improvement Network Database, aged 30-74 years and without existing CVD, populated the model. INTERVENTIONS: Four cardiovascular risk algorithms were assessed: (1) general population lipid, (2) general population body mass index (BMI), (3) SMI-specific lipid and (4) SMI-specific BMI, compared against no algorithm. At baseline, each cardiovascular risk algorithm was applied and those considered high risk (> 10%) were assumed to be prescribed statin therapy while others received usual care. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were accrued for each algorithm including no algorithm, and cost-effectiveness was calculated using the net monetary benefit (NMB) approach. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test assumptions made and uncertainty around parameter estimates. RESULTS: The SMI-specific BMI algorithm had the highest NMB resulting in 15 additional QALYs and a cost saving of approximately £53 000 per 1000 patients with SMI over 10 years, followed by the general population lipid algorithm (13 additional QALYs and a cost saving of £46 000). CONCLUSIONS: The general population lipid and SMI-specific BMI algorithms performed equally well. The ease and acceptability of use of an SMI-specific BMI algorithm (blood tests not required) makes it an attractive algorithm to implement in clinical settings.

An educational review of the statistical issues in analysing utility data for cost-utility analysis.

The aim of cost-utility analysis is to support decision making in healthcare by providing a standardised mechanism for comparing resource use and health outcomes across programmes of work. The focus of this paper is the denominator of the cost-utility analysis, specifically the methodology and statistical challenges associated with calculating QALYs from patient-level data collected as part of a trial. We provide a brief description of the most common questionnaire used to calculate patient level utility scores, the EQ-5D, followed by a discussion of other ways to calculate patient level utility scores alongside a trial including other generic measures of health-related quality of life and condition- and population-specific questionnaires. Detail is provided on how to calculate the mean QALYs per patient, including discounting, adjusting for baseline differences in utility scores and a discussion of the implications of different methods for handling missing data. The methods are demonstrated using data from a trial. As the methods chosen can systematically change the results of the analysis, it is important that standardised methods such as patient-level analysis are adhered to as best as possible. Regardless, researchers need to ensure that they are sufficiently transparent about the methods they use so as to provide the best possible information to aid in healthcare decision making.

Impact on clinical and cost outcomes of a centralized approach to acute stroke care in London: a comparative effectiveness before and after model.

BACKGROUND: In July 2010 a new multiple hub-and-spoke model for acute stroke care was implemented across the whole of London, UK, with continuous specialist care during the first 72 hours provided at 8 hyper-acute stroke units (HASUs) compared to the previous model of 30 local hospitals receiving acute stroke patients. We investigated differences in clinical outcomes and costs between the new and old models. METHODS: We compared outcomes and costs 'before' (July 2007-July 2008) vs. 'after' (July 2010-June 2011) the introduction of the new model, adjusted for patient characteristics and national time trends in mortality and length of stay. We constructed 90-day and 10-year decision analytic models using data from population based stroke registers, audits and published sources. Mortality and length of stay were modelled using survival analysis. FINDINGS: In a pooled sample of 307 patients 'before' and 3156 patients 'after', survival improved in the 'after' period (age adjusted hazard ratio 0.54; 95% CI 0.41-0.72). The predicted survival rates at 90 days in the deterministic model adjusted for national trends were 87.2% 'before' % (95% CI 86.7%-87.7%) and 88.7% 'after' (95% CI 88.6%-88.8%); a relative reduction in deaths of 12% (95% CI 8%-16%). Based on a cohort of 6,438 stroke patients, the model produces a total cost saving of £5.2 million per year at 90 days (95% CI £4.9-£5.5 million; £811 per patient). CONCLUSION: A centralized model for acute stroke care across an entire metropolitan city appears to have reduced mortality for a reduced cost per patient, predominately as a result of reduced hospital length of stay.

Lifetime costs and outcomes of repair of Tetralogy of Fallot compared to natural progression of the disease: Great Ormond Street Hospital cohort.

BACKGROUND: Tetralogy of Fallot is a congenital heart disease that requires surgical repair without which survival through childhood is extremely rare. The aim of this paper is to use data from the mandatory follow-up of patients with Tetralogy of Fallot to model the health-related costs and outcomes over the first 55-years of life. METHOD: A decision analytical model was developed to establish costs and outcomes for patients up to 55 years after diagnosis and first repair of Tetralogy of Fallot compared to natural progression. Data from Adult Congenital Heart Disease (ACHD) centres that follow up Tetralogy of Fallot patients and Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), London, United Kingdom (UK) medical records was used to establish the cost and effectiveness of current interventions. Data from a Czech cohort was used for the natural, no intervention condition. RESULTS: The average cost per patient of a repair for Tetralogy of Fallot was £26,938 (SE = £4,140). The full life time cost per patient, with no discount rate, was £65,310 (95% CI £64,981-£65,729); £56,559 discounted (95% CI £56,159-£56,960). Patients with a repair had an average of 35 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per patient over 55 years undiscounted and 20.16 QALYs discounted. If the disorder was left to take its natural course, patients on average had a total of 3 QALYs per patient with no discount rate and 2.30 QALYs discounted. CONCLUSION: A model has been developed that provides an estimate of the value for money of an expensive repair of a congenital heart disease. The model could be used to test the cost-effectiveness of making amendments to the care pathway.