Association between overcrowded households, multigenerational households, and COVID-19: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The role of overcrowded and multigenerational households as a risk factor for COVID-19 remains unmeasured. The objective of this study is to examine and quantify the association between overcrowded and multigenerational households and COVID-19 in New York City (NYC). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: We conducted a Bayesian ecological time series analysis at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level in NYC to assess whether ZCTAs with higher proportions of overcrowded (defined as the proportion of the estimated number of housing units with more than one occupant per room) and multigenerational households (defined as the estimated percentage of residences occupied by a grandparent and a grandchild less than 18 years of age) were independently associated with higher suspected COVID-19 case rates (from NYC Department of Health Syndromic Surveillance data for March 1 to 30, 2020). Our main measure was an adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of suspected COVID-19 cases per 10,000 population. Our final model controlled for ZCTA-level sociodemographic factors (median income, poverty status, White race, essential workers), the prevalence of clinical conditions related to COVID-19 severity (obesity, hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes, asthma, smoking status, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and spatial clustering. RESULTS: 39,923 suspected COVID-19 cases were presented to emergency departments across 173 ZCTAs in NYC. Adjusted COVID-19 case rates increased by 67% (IRR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.52) in ZCTAs in quartile four (versus one) for percent overcrowdedness and increased by 77% (IRR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.11, 2.79) in quartile four (versus one) for percent living in multigenerational housing. Interaction between both exposures was not significant (ßinteraction = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.99-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Overcrowdedness and multigenerational housing are independent risk factors for suspected COVID-19. In the early phase of the surge in COVID cases, social distancing measures that increase house-bound populations may inadvertently but temporarily increase SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk and COVID-19 disease in these populations.

Processing the tort deterrent signal: a qualitative study.

Medical mistakes often are responsible for patient injury and suffering, but not all such mistakes are negligent. In the United States, injured patients have recourse to legal action under the common law. The medical malpractice tort trial system is intended to provide compensation for patients who have been negligently injured and to deter future negligent acts by physicians. The deterrent function of torts largely rests on practitioners' capacity and willingness to internalize, or 'process', the lessons of tort trials. However, physicians' willingness or ability to process the tort deterrent signal, while widely assumed in much contemporary legal writing on medical malpractice, has never been empirically verified. This study is a qualitative assessment of how practicing physicians process the tort deterrent signal. We interviewed a random sample of 47 internists, surgeons, and obstetrician/gynecologists from New York State as part of the Harvard Medical Practice Study. The interviews reveal three notable findings: physicians in our sample largely define medical negligence by reference to moral qualities of the practitioner; they claim that lawyers and the legal process of tort trials lack the moral authority to guide medical practice; and finally, while they consequently reject the lessons of lawyer-dominated, confrontational tort trials, they indicate that they would respond more favorably to hospital-based, physician-led, educational quality-control measures. Based on these findings, we identify several potential impediments to the receipt and processing of the tort deterrent signal by individual physicians and we suggest that the interview results support the notion of institutional liability for medical malpractice.