Patient and clinician perceptions of blunt chest trauma management and recovery: a qualitative study.

PURPOSE: To explore patient and clinician perceptions of blunt chest trauma management and recovery, when discharged directly home from the Emergency Department (ED). METHODS: This was a qualitative study, completed in a trauma unit in Wales. Blunt chest trauma was defined as an isolated blunt injury to the chest wall, resulting in bruising or rib fractures. Data collection involved semi-structured telephone interviews and focus groups with patients and clinicians respectively. Data analysis was completed using reflexive thematic coding. RESULTS: Twelve patient interviews and three focus groups (23 clinicians) were conducted. In the interviews, seven males and five females participated, with a mean age of 54 years (range 28-74). Clinicians included nurses, doctors, and therapists. Two main themes emerged; 1) the ED experience and 2) recovery once home; each with a number of sub-themes. Results highlighted the significant impact of pain on recovery, and that there is a disjuncture between organisational perspectives of clinicians, and the individual personal perspective of patients. DISCUSSION: Recovery from blunt chest trauma for patients discharged directly home from the ED is a challenging and complex process. Protocol-driven care does not always lead to good patient experience, as it focuses primarily on hospital services and resources.

Recovery from blunt chest trauma is a complex process, leading to poor outcomes including pain and disability.Protocol-driven care of blunt chest trauma does not always lead to a good patient experience.Patients with blunt chest trauma benefit from reassurance that their severity of pain is normal, prior to discharge home from the Emergency Department (ED).Education regarding pacing activity, rest, and reliance on others for a period of time following injury can lead to an improved recovery experience.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic affect levels of burnout, anxiety and depression among doctors and nurses in Bangladesh? A cross-sectional survey study.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 has caused severe disruption to clinical services in Bangladesh but the extent of this, and the impact on healthcare professionals is unclear. We aimed to assess the perceived levels of anxiety, depression and burnout among doctors and nurses during COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We undertook an online survey using RedCap, directed at doctors and nurses across four institutions in Bangladesh (The Sheikh Russel Gastro Liver Institute & Hospital (SRNGIH), Dhaka Medical College Hospital (DMCH), Mugda Medical College Hospital (MMCH) and M Abdur Rahim Medical College (MARMC) Hospital). We collected information on demographics, awareness of well-being services, COVID-19-related workload, as well as anxiety, depression and burnout using two validated questionnaires: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). RESULTS: Of the 3000 participants approached, we received responses from 2705 (90.2%). There was a statistically significant difference in anxiety, depression and burnout scores across institutions (p<0.01). Anxiety, depression and burnout scores were statistically worse in COVID-19 active staff compared with those not working on COVID-19 activities (p<0.01 for HADS anxiety and depression and MBI emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalisation (DP) and personal accomplishment (PA)). Over half of the participants exhibited some level of anxiety (SRNGIH: 52.2%; DMCH: 53.9%; MMCH: 61.3%; MARMC: 68%) with a high proportion experiencing depression (SRNGIH: 39.5%; DMCH: 38.7%; MMCH: 53.7%; MARMC: 41.1%). Although mean burnout scores were within the normal range for each institution, a high proportion of staff (almost 20% in some instances) were shown to be classified as experiencing burnout by their EE, DP and PA scores. CONCLUSION: We identified a high prevalence of perceived anxiety, depression and burnout among doctors and nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was worse in staff engaged in COVID-19-related activities. These findings could help healthcare organisations to plan for future similar events.

Study to evaluate the readability and visual appearance of online resources for blunt chest trauma: an evaluation of online resources using mixed methods.

OBJECTIVES: Blunt chest trauma (BCT) is characterised by forceful and non-penetrative impact to the chest region. Increased access to the internet has led to online healthcare resources becoming used by the public to educate themselves about medical conditions. This study aimed to determine whether online resources for BCT are at an appropriate readability level and visual appearance for the public. DESIGN: We undertook a (1) a narrative overview assessment of the website; (2) a visual assessment of the identified website material content using an adapted framework of predetermined key criteria based on the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services toolkit and (3) a readability assessment using five readability scores and the Flesch reading ease score using Readable software. DATA SOURCES: Using a range of key search terms, we searched Google, Bing and Yahoo websites on 9 October 2023 for online resources about BCT. RESULTS: We identified and assessed 85 websites. The median visual assessment score for the identified websites was 22, with a range of -14 to 37. The median readability score generated was 9 (14-15 years), with a range of 4.9-15.8. There was a significant association between the visual assessment and readability scores with a tendency for websites with lower readability scores having higher scores for the visual assessment (Spearman's r=-0.485; p<0.01). The median score for Flesch reading ease was 63.9 (plain English) with a range of 21.1-85.3. CONCLUSIONS: Although the readability levels and visual appearance were acceptable for the public for many websites, many of the resources had much higher readability scores than the recommended level (8-10) and visually were poor.Better use of images would improve the appearance of websites further. Less medical terminology and shorter word and sentence length would also allow the public to comprehend the contained information more easily.

Group-based positive psychotherapy for people living with acquired brain injury: a protocol for a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Acquired brain injury (ABI) and other chronic conditions are placing unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems. In the UK, 1.3 million people live with the effects of brain injury, costing the UK economy approximately £15 billion per year. As a result, there is an urgent need to adapt existing healthcare delivery to meet increasing current and future demands. A focus on wellbeing may provide an innovative opportunity to reduce the pressure on healthcare services while also supporting patients to live more meaningful lives. The overarching aims of the study are as follows: (1) evaluate the feasibility of conducting a positive psychotherapy intervention for individuals with ABI and (2) ascertain under what conditions such an intervention would merit a fully powered randomised controlled trial (RCT) compared to a standard control group (TAU). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A randomised, two-arm feasibility trial involving allocation of patients to either a treatment group (positive psychotherapy) or control group (treatment as usual) group, according to a 1:1 ratio. A total of 60 participants at three sites will be recruited including 20 participants at each site. Assessments will be conducted at baseline, on completion of the 8-week intervention and 3 months following completion. These will include a range of questionnaire-based measures, psychophysiology and qualitative outcomes focusing on feasibility outcomes and participant experience. This study has been approved by the Wales Research Ethics Committee (IRAS project ID: 271,251, REC reference: 19/WA/0336). DISCUSSION: This study will be the first to examine the feasibility of an innovative, holistic positive psychotherapy intervention for people living with ABI, focused on individual, collective and planetary wellbeing, and will enable us to determine whether to proceed to a full randomised controlled trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN12690685 , registered 11th November 2020.

Natural language processing to automate a web-based model of care and modernize skin cancer multidisciplinary team meetings.

BACKGROUND: Cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings are under intense pressure to reform given the rapidly rising incidence of cancer and national mandates for protocolized streaming of cases. The aim of this study was to validate a natural language processing (NLP)-based web platform to automate evidence-based MDT decisions for skin cancer with basal cell carcinoma as a use case. METHODS: A novel and validated NLP information extraction model was used to extract perioperative tumour and surgical factors from histopathology reports. A web application with a bespoke application programming interface used data from this model to provide an automated clinical decision support system, mapped to national guidelines and generating a patient letter to communicate ongoing management. Performance was assessed against retrospectively derived recommendations by two independent and blinded expert clinicians. RESULTS: There were 893 patients (1045 lesions) used to internally validate the model. High accuracy was observed when compared against human predictions, with an overall value of 0.92. Across all classifiers the virtual skin MDT was highly specific (0.96), while sensitivity was lower (0.72). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the feasibility of a fully automated, virtual, web-based service model to host the skin MDT with good system performance. This platform could be used to support clinical decision-making during MDTs as 'human in the loop' approach to aid protocolized streaming. Future prospective studies are needed to validate the model in tumour types where guidelines are more complex.

Revisiting basal cell carcinoma clinical margins: Leveraging natural language processing and multivariate analysis with updated Royal College of Pathologists histological reporting standards.

INTRODUCTION: Data supporting the current British Association of Dermatologists guidelines for the management of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) are based on historic studies and do not consider the updated Royal College of Pathologists (RCPath) histological reporting standards. The aim of this study was to use natural language processing (NLP)-derived data and undertake a multivariate analysis with updated RCPath standards, providing a contemporary update on the excision margins required to achieve histological clearance in BCC. METHODS: A validated NLP information extraction model was used to perform a rapid multi-centre, pan-specialty, consecutive retrospective analysis of BCCs, managed with surgical excision using a pre-determined clinical margin, over a 17-year period (2004-2021) at Swansea Bay University Health Board. Logistic regression assessed the relationship between the peripheral and deep margins and histological clearance. RESULTS: We ran our NLP algorithm on 34,955 BCCs. Out of the 1447 BCCs that met the inclusion criteria, the peripheral margin clearance was not influenced by the BCC risk level (p = 0.670). A clinical peripheral margin of 6 mm achieved a 95% histological clearance rate (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.98). Tumour thickness inversely affected deep-margin histological clearance (OR 0.720, 95% CI, 0.525-0.991, p < 0.05). Depth level 2 had a 97% probability of achieving deep-margin histological clearance across all tumour thicknesses. CONCLUSION: Updated RCPath reporting standards minimally impact the peripheral margin histological clearance in BCC. Larger clinical peripheral margins than those indicated by current guidelines may be necessary to achieve excision rates of ≥95%. These findings emphasise the need for continuous reassessment of clinical standards to enhance patient care.

Validation of the ACE [Albumin, CRP, and Endoscopy] Index in Acute Colitis: Analysis of the CONSTRUCT dataset.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In 2020 we reported the ACE Index in acute colitis which used biochemical and endoscopic parameters to predict steroid non-response on admission in patients with acute ulcerative colitis [UC]. We aimed to validate the ACE Index in an independent cohort. METHODS: The validation cohort comprised patients screened as eligible for inclusion in the CONSTRUCT study, a prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled trial which compared the effectiveness of treatment with infliximab vs ciclosporin in patients admitted with acute UC. The CONSTRUCT cohort database was reviewed at The Edinburgh IBD Unit and the same biochemical and endoscopic variables and cut-off values as those in the derivation cohort were applied to the validation cohort. RESULTS: In total, 800 patients were identified; 62.5% [55/88] of patients with a maximum ACE Index of 3 did not respond to intravenous [IV] steroids (positive predictive value [PPV] 62.5%, negative predictive value [NPV] 79.8%). Furthermore, 79.8% [158/198] of patients with an ACE Index of 0 responded to IV steroids [PPV 79.8%, NPV 62.5%]. Receiver operator characteristic [ROC] curve analysis produced an area under the curve [AUC] of 0.663 [p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: We have now reported and externally validated the ACE Index in acute colitis in a combined cohort of over 1000 patients from across the UK. The ACE Index may be used in conjunction with clinical judgement to help identify patients admitted with active UC who are at high risk of not responding to IV steroids. Further studies are required to improve objectivity and accuracy of assessment.

The association of anxiety disorders and depression with facial scarring: population-based, data linkage, matched cohort analysis of 358 158 patients.

BACKGROUND: Estimates suggest that 1 in 100 people in the UK live with facial scarring. Despite this incidence, psychological support is limited. AIMS: The aim of this study was to strengthen the case for improving such support by determining the incidence and risk factors for anxiety and depression disorders in patients with facial scarring. METHOD: A matched cohort study was performed. Patients were identified via secondary care data sources, using clinical codes for conditions resulting in facial scarring. A diagnosis of anxiety or depression was determined by linkage with the patient's primary care general practice data. Incidence was calculated per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR). Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2018, 179 079 patients met the study criteria and were identified as having a facial scar, and matched to 179 079 controls. The incidence of anxiety in the facial scarring group was 10.05 per 1000 PYAR compared with 7.48 per 1000 PYAR for controls. The incidence of depression in the facial scarring group was 16.28 per 1000 PYAR compared with 9.56 per 1000 PYAR for controls. Age at the time of scarring, previous history of anxiety or depression, female gender, socioeconomic status and classification of scarring increased the risk of both anxiety disorders and depression. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high burden of anxiety disorders and depression in this patient group. Risk of these mental health disorders is very much determined by factors apparent at the time of injury, supporting the need for psychological support.

Can we collect health-related quality of life information from anticoagulated atrial fibrillation participants who have recently experienced a bleed? An observational feasibility study in primary and secondary care in Wales and through a UK online forum.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of recruiting participants diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) taking oral anticoagulation therapies (OATs) and recently experiencing a bleed to collect health-related quality of life (HRQoL) information. DESIGN: Observational feasibility study. The study aimed to determine the feasibility of recruiting participants with minor and major bleeds, the most appropriate route for recruitment and the appropriateness of the patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) selected for collecting HRQoL information in AF patients, and the preferred format of the surveys. SETTING: Primary care, secondary care and via an online patient forum. PARTICIPANTS: The study population was adult patients (≥18) with AF taking OATs who had experienced a recent major or minor bleed within the last 4 weeks. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes - PROMs: EuroQol 5 Dimensions-5 Levels, Perception of Anticoagulant Treatment Questionnaire, part 2 only (part 2), atrial fibrillation effect on quality of life. Secondary outcomes - Location of bleed, bleed severity, current treatment, patient perceptions of HRQoL in relation to bleeding events. RESULTS: We received initial expressions of interest from 103 participants. We subsequently recruited 32 participants to the study-14 from primary care and 18 through the AF forum. No participants were recruited through secondary care. Despite 32 participants consenting, only 26 initial surveys were completed. We received follow-up surveys from 11 participants (8 primary care and 3 AF forum). COVID-19 had a major impact on the study. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care was the most successful route for recruitment. Most participants recruited to the study experienced a minor bleed. Further ways to recruit in secondary care should be explored, especially to capture more serious bleeds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study is registered in the Clinicaltrials.gov database, NCT04921176.

Comparative study of ChatGPT and human evaluators on the assessment of medical literature according to recognised reporting standards.

INTRODUCTION: Amid clinicians' challenges in staying updated with medical research, artificial intelligence (AI) tools like the large language model (LLM) ChatGPT could automate appraisal of research quality, saving time and reducing bias. This study compares the proficiency of ChatGPT3 against human evaluation in scoring abstracts to determine its potential as a tool for evidence synthesis. METHODS: We compared ChatGPT's scoring of implant dentistry abstracts with human evaluators using the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials for Abstracts reporting standards checklist, yielding an overall compliance score (OCS). Bland-Altman analysis assessed agreement between human and AI-generated OCS percentages. Additional error analysis included mean difference of OCS subscores, Welch's t-test and Pearson's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Bland-Altman analysis showed a mean difference of 4.92% (95% CI 0.62%, 0.37%) in OCS between human evaluation and ChatGPT. Error analysis displayed small mean differences in most domains, with the highest in 'conclusion' (0.764 (95% CI 0.186, 0.280)) and the lowest in 'blinding' (0.034 (95% CI 0.818, 0.895)). The strongest correlations between were in 'harms' (r=0.32, p<0.001) and 'trial registration' (r=0.34, p=0.002), whereas the weakest were in 'intervention' (r=0.02, p<0.001) and 'objective' (r=0.06, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: LLMs like ChatGPT can help automate appraisal of medical literature, aiding in the identification of accurately reported research. Possible applications of ChatGPT include integration within medical databases for abstract evaluation. Current limitations include the token limit, restricting its usage to abstracts. As AI technology advances, future versions like GPT4 could offer more reliable, comprehensive evaluations, enhancing the identification of high-quality research and potentially improving patient outcomes.

A study evaluating quality of life and factors affecting it before, during and after menopause.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if quality of life (QoL) changes before, during and after menopause and whether these changes are linked to symptoms, demographics, and/or lifestyle factors. METHODS: We undertook a cross-sectional online survey. We invited women aged between 35 and 60 years to complete the survey which included the Short-Form 36 (SF-36) generic quality of life measure, the menopause specific Utian-Quality of life (UQOL) measure, and questions about health and wellbeing, menopause symptoms and hormonal stage. The data were analysed with one-way ANOVA analysis and multivariate regression modelling. RESULTS: 279 women completed the survey. Most were aged between 51 and 55 years. In the unadjusted analysis there was a tendency for QoL to deteriorate from pre to peri to menopause and then increase slightly post menopause. This was however not significant in multivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis identified that lifestyle factors significantly influenced QoL. Regular exercise resulted in better QoL scores across a number of the UQol and SF-36 sub-scales. Being very overweight and having more menopause symptoms resulted in worse QoL. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was a trend towards worse quality of life in the peri and menopause stages this was not significantly different in adjusted multivariate analyses. Those experiencing more symptoms had significantly worse QoL. Lifestyle factors may affect QoL, but the picture is not straightforward. It is promising that there was a trend toward improved QoL in the post-menopausal stage. These findings should inform education material and promote awareness of the menopause and its impact on QoL. (245).

The incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer in the UK and the Republic of Ireland: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) remain the most prevalent malignancies, contributing a higher workload to cancer registries than all cancers combined. The nature of skin cancers in addition to current coding methods employed by registries give a skewed representation of the workload. OBJECTIVES: A comprehensive search examining the incidence of BCC and/or cSCC at a regional or national level in the UK and Ireland was devised. Standardisation methods were grouped to permit comparison, and a bias assessment tool was employed. MATERIALS & METHODS: Sixteen UK and Republic of Ireland epidemiological studies on BCC/cSCC over a 48-year period were compiled, examining incidence, trends and emerging risk factors. RESULTS: Incidence of BCC within the UK is increasing annually by up to 4%, with rates in Wales increasing by up to 6.6% and 1.6% annually for BCC and cSCC, respectively. Inverse relationships are noted between BCC/cSCC and social deprivation. Although the elderly remain the most at risk, the 30-49 age group have illustrated growth rates of approximately 4%. CONCLUSION: This review outlines increasing incidence in the UK with higher rates noted in Wales, the Southeast, West and Central regions. Incidence rates are higher amongst the least socially deprived and an increasing incidence amongst younger age groups was found, however further trend analysis is required. A more comprehensive data collection method within registries is necessary to ensure accurate representation and fluid comparison. Service planning and public awareness campaigns must be implemented to prevent overwhelming future services.

Health care utilization outcomes in patients with blunt chest wall trauma following discharge from the emergency department: A retrospective, observational data-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Although much is published reporting clinical outcomes in the patients with blunt chest wall trauma who are admitted to hospital from the ED, less is known about the patients' recovery when they are discharged directly without admission. The aim of this study was to investigate the health care utilization outcomes in adult patients with blunt chest wall trauma, discharged directly from ED in a trauma unit in the United Kingdom. METHODS: This was a longitudinal, retrospective, single-center, observational study incorporating analysis of linked datasets, using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank for admissions to a trauma unit in the Wales, between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020. All patients 16 years or older with a primary diagnosis of blunt chest wall trauma discharged directly home were included. Data were analyzed using a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS: There were 3,205 presentations to the ED included. Mean age was 53 years, 57% were male, with the predominant injury mechanism being a low velocity fall (50%). 93% of the cohort sustained between 0 and 3 rib fractures. Four percent of the cohort were reported to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 4% using preinjury anticoagulants. On regression analysis, inpatient admissions, outpatient appointments and primary care contacts all significantly increased in the 12-week period postinjury, compared with the 12-week period preinjury (odds ratio [OR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.99; p < 0.001; OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14-1.43; p < 0.001; OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; p < 0.001, respectively). Risk of health care resource utilization increased significantly with each additional year of age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preinjury anticoagulant use (all p < 0.05). Social deprivation and number of rib fracture did not impact outcomes. CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate the need for appropriate signposting and follow-up for patients with blunt chest wall trauma presenting to the ED, not requiring admission to the hospital. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

Evaluating remote skin cancer multidisciplinary team meetings in the United Kingdom post-COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was concern that virtual or remote multidisciplinary teams (MDT) meetings represented a niche concept that was unlikely to replace traditional face-to-face meetings in the management of cancer. However, the sudden shift to virtual meetings during COVID-19 has been one of the most dramatic changes since the inception of the MDT. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of virtual skin MDTs since the move to virtual meetings. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was sent to all Specialist Skin Cancer MDTs (SSMDTs) and the British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive, and Aesthetic Surgeons Skin Oncology Special Interest and Advisory Group. RESULTS: There were 68 responses (55.3% response rate) from 36 SSMDTs in the UK. Respondents felt communication, chairing, and decision-making were similar in virtual and in-person MDTs, but the team working was worse in virtual meetings. Recruitment, data security, and patient confidentiality were maintained in virtual MDTs. Most preferred a hybrid format for future MDTs, with the option to attend virtually. Recommendations for improvement included better connectivity, IT support, training, and staff integration. CONCLUSION: The virtual MDT is here to stay. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of remote virtual skin MDTs. It is key that we look at ways to retain team working to ensure that the collegiate nature of MDT working, and therefore treatment options for patients, are not lost in this transformation in MDT delivery.

Improving the effectiveness of multidisciplinary team meetings on skin cancer: Analysis of the National Cancer Research UK survey responses.

INTRODUCTION: Skin cancer is the most common form of cancer in the UK, comprising at least 25% of all new cancer diagnoses. Many patients require referral to the local or specialist skin cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) for ongoing management. However, national data have shown that Specialist Skin Cancer MDTs are costly and do not currently meet NICE standards for composition and quoracy. Innovative solutions to these problems are therefore warranted. METHODS: We performed a secondary comparative analysis of 3563 quantitative responses to two Cancer Research UK commissioned surveys along with subanalysis of 282 skin cancer MDT respondents. RESULTS: Good uniformity was observed amongst skin respondents in the belief that risk stratification and prioritization of complex cases were the most important factors compared to other cancer MDT members. The most important priorities for areas requiring change to MDT working deemed by the skin MDT were 1) imaging and pathology results ready for the meeting, 2) time to discuss patients in detail, 3) clear meeting owner in charge, and 4) clear agenda, in advance of the meeting. There was agreement (median Likert score 4) amongst skin MDT respondents that patients should be placed on protocolized treatment pathways. CONCLUSION: The responses of skin MDT respondents analyzed in the current study support changes to meeting attendance, preparation, and protocolized streaming. In line with other studies, we support tumor-specific guidance for streamlining MDT discussions. We also encourage stakeholders to adopt an evidence-based approach to test, develop, and reassess changes in this herculean task.

Infliximab versus ciclosporin in steroid resistant acute severe ulcerative colitis: a model-based cost-utility analysis of data from CONSTRUCT pragmatic trial.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence in the literature on the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis (ASUC). The study aimed to perform decision analytic model-based long-term cost-utility analysis (CUA) of infliximab versus ciclosporin for steroid-resistant ASUC investigated in CONSTRUCT pragmatic trial. METHODS: A decision tree (DT) model was developed using two-year health effect, resource use and costs data from CONSTRUCT trial to estimate relative cost-effectiveness of two competing drugs from the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Services (NHS) perspective. Using short-term trial data, a Markov model (MM) was then developed and evaluated over further 18 years. Both DT and MM were combined to investigate cost-effectiveness of infliximab versus ciclosporin for ASUC patients over 20-year time horizon, with a rigorous multiple deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to address uncertainty in results. RESULTS: The decision tree mirrored trial-based results. Beyond 2-year trial follow-up, Markov model predicted a decrease in colectomy rate, but it remained slightly higher for ciclosporin. NHS costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) over base-case 20 year time horizon were £26,793 and 9.816 for ciclosporin and £34,185 and 9.106 for infliximab, suggesting ciclosporin dominates infliximab. Ciclosporin had 95% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold value up to £20,000. CONCLUSION: Using data from a pragmatic RCT, the cost-effectiveness models produced incremental net health benefit in favour of ciclosporin relative to infliximab. Results from long-term modelling indicated that ciclosporin remains dominant compared with infliximab for the treatment of NHS ASUC patients, however, these need to be interpreted cautiously. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CONSTRUCT Trial registration number ISRCTN22663589; EudraCT number: 2008- 001968-36 (Date 27/08/2008).

The epidemiology, healthcare and societal burden of basal cell carcinoma in Wales 2000-2018: a retrospective nationwide analysis.

BACKGROUND: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) represents the most commonly occurring cancer worldwide within the white population. Reports predict 298 308 cases of BCC in the UK by 2025, at a cost of £265-366 million to the National Health Service (NHS). Despite the morbidity, societal and healthcare pressures brought about by BCC, routinely collected healthcare data and global registration remain limited. OBJECTIVES: To calculate the incidence of BCC in Wales between 2000 and 2018 and to establish the related healthcare utilization and estimated cost of care. METHODS: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank is one of the largest and most robust health and social care data repositories in the UK. Cancer registry data were linked to routinely collected healthcare databases between 2000 and 2018. Pathological data from Swansea Bay University Health Board (SBUHB) were used for internal validation. RESULTS: A total of 61 404 histologically proven BCCs were identified within the SAIL Databank during the study period. The European age-standardized incidence for BCC in 2018 was 224.6 per 100 000 person-years. Based on validated regional data, a 45% greater incidence was noted within SBUHB pathology vs. matched regions within SAIL between 2016 and 2018. A negative association between deprivation and incidence was noted with a higher incidence in the least socially deprived and rural dwellers. Approximately 2% travelled 25-50 miles for dermatological services compared with 37% for plastic surgery. Estimated NHS costs of surgically managed lesions for 2002-2019 equated to £119.2-164.4 million. CONCLUSIONS: Robust epidemiological data that are internationally comparable and representative are scarce for nonmelanoma skin cancer. The rising global incidence coupled with struggling healthcare systems in the post-COVID-19 recovery period serve to intensify the societal and healthcare impact. This study is the first to demonstrate the incidence of BCC in Wales and is one of a small number in the UK using internally validated large cohort datasets. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate one of the highest published incidences within the UK and Europe.

Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 10 years, research has highlighted emerging potential risk factors for poor outcomes following blunt chest wall trauma. The aim was to update a previous systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients. METHODS: A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Library from January 2010 to March 2022 was completed. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used. All observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. Where sufficient data were available, ORs with 95% CIs were calculated using a Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: 73 studies were identified which were of variable quality (including 29 from original review). Identified risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma were: age 65 years or more (OR: 2.11; 95% CI 1.85 to 2.41), three or more rib fractures (OR: 1.96; 95% CI 1.69 to 2.26) and presence of pre-existing disease (OR: 2.86; 95% CI 1.34 to 6.09). Other new risk factors identified were: increasing Injury Severity Score, need for mechanical ventilation, extremes of body mass index and smoking status. Meta-analysis was not possible for these variables due to insufficient studies and high levels of heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this updated review suggest that despite a change in demographics of trauma patients and subsequent emerging evidence over the last 10 years, the main risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma remained largely unchanged. A number of new risk factors however have been reported that need consideration when updating current risk prediction models used in the ED. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021242063. Date registered: 29 March 2021. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/%23recordDetails.