Large-scale analysis to identify risk factors for ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer is characterized by late-stage diagnoses and poor prognosis. We aimed to identify factors that can inform prevention and early detection of ovarian cancer. METHODS: We used a data-driven machine learning approach to identify predictors of epithelial ovarian cancer from 2920 input features measured 12.6 years (IQR 11.9 to 13.3 years) before diagnoses. Analyses included 221 732 female participants in the UK Biobank without a history of cancer. During the follow-up 1441 women developed ovarian cancer. For factors that contributed to model prediction, we used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the association with ovarian cancer, with evidence for causality tested by Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in the Ovarian Cancer Genetics Consortium (25 509 cases). RESULTS: Greater parity and ever-use of oral contraception were associated with lower ovarian cancer risk (ever vs never OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.84). After adjustment for established risk factors, greater height, weight, and greater red blood cell distribution width were associated with increased ovarian cancer risk, while higher aspartate aminotransferase levels and mean corpuscular volume were associated with lower risk. MR analyses confirmed observational associations with anthropometric/adiposity traits (eg, body fat percentage per standard deviation (SD); OR inverse-variance weighted (ORIVW) 1.28, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.46) and aspartate aminotransferase (ORIVW 0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.98). MR also provided genetic evidence for a protective association of higher total serum protein on ovarian cancer, higher lymphocyte count on serous and endometrioid ovarian cancer, and greater forced expiratory volume in 1 s on serous ovarian cancer among other findings. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that certain risk factors for ovarian cancer are modifiable, suggesting that weight reduction and interventions to reduce the number of ovulations may provide potential for future prevention. We also identified blood biomarkers associated with ovarian cancer years before diagnoses, warranting further investigation.

In-silico functional analyses identify TMPRSS15-mediated intestinal absorption of lithium as a modulator of lithium response in bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is highly variable and has a polygenic basis. Genome-wide association studies investigating lithium response have identified several relevant loci, though the precise mechanisms driving these associations are poorly understood. We aimed to prioritise the most likely effector gene and determine the mechanisms underlying an intergenic lithium response locus on chromosome 21 identified by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen). METHODS: We conducted in-silico functional analyses by integrating and synthesising information from several publicly available functional genetic datasets and databases including the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project and HaploReg. RESULTS: The findings from this study highlighted TMPRSS15 as the most likely effector gene at the ConLi+Gen lithium response locus. TMPRSS15 encodes enterokinase, a gastrointestinal enzyme responsible for converting trypsinogen into trypsin and thus aiding digestion. Convergent findings from gene-based lookups in human and mouse databases as well as co-expression network analyses of small intestinal RNA-seq data (GTEx) implicated TMPRSS15 in the regulation of intestinal nutrient absorption, including ions like sodium and potassium, which may extend to lithium. LIMITATIONS: Although the findings from this study indicated that TMPRSS15 was the most likely effector gene at the ConLi+Gen lithium response locus, the evidence was circumstantial. Thus, the conclusions from this study need to be validated in appropriately designed wet-lab studies. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study are consistent with a model whereby TMPRSS15 impacts the efficacy of lithium treatment in patients with bipolar disorder by modulating intestinal lithium absorption.

Uncovering predictors of low hippocampal volume: Evidence from a large-scale machine-learning-based study in the UK Biobank.

INTRODUCTION: Hippocampal atrophy is an established biomarker for conversion from the normal ageing process to developing cognitive impairment and dementia. This study used a novel hypothesis-free machine-learning approach, to uncover potential risk factors of lower hippocampal volume using information from the world's largest brain imaging study. METHODS: A combination of machine learning and conventional statistical methods were used to identify predictors of low hippocampal volume. We run gradient boosting decision tree modelling including 2891 input features measured before magnetic resonance imaging assessments (median 9.2 years, range 4.2-13.8 years) using data from 42,152 dementia-free UK Biobank participants. Logistic regression analyses were run on 87 factors identified as important for prediction based on Shapley values. False discovery rate adjusted P-value <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. RESULTS: Older age, male sex, greater height, and whole-body fat free mass were the main predictors of low hippocampal volume with the model also identifying associations with lung function and lifestyle factors including smoking, physical activity, and coffee intake (corrected P<0.05 for all). Red blood cell count and several red blood cell indices such as haemoglobin concentration, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, mean reticulocyte volume, mean sphered cell volume, and red blood cell distribution width were among many biomarkers associated with low hippocampal volume. CONCLUSION: Lifestyles, physical measures, and biomarkers may affect hippocampal volume, with many of the characteristics potentially reflecting oxygen supply to the brain. Further studies are required to establish causality and clinical relevance of these findings.

Phenome-wide association study of ovarian cancer identifies common comorbidities and reveals shared genetics with complex diseases and biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) is commonly diagnosed among older women who have comorbidities. This hypothesis-free phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) aimed to identify comorbidities associated with OC, as well as traits that share a genetic architecture with OC. METHODS: We used data from 181,203 white British female UK Biobank participants and analysed OC and OC subtype-specific genetic risk scores (OC-GRS) for an association with 889 diseases and 43 other traits. We conducted PheWAS and colocalization analyses for individual variants to identify evidence for shared genetic architecture. RESULTS: The OC-GRS was associated with 10 diseases, and the clear cell OC-GRS was associated with five diseases at the FDR threshold (p = 5.6 × 10-4 ). Mendelian randomizaiton analysis (MR) provided robust evidence for the association of OC with higher risk of "secondary malignant neoplasm of digestive systems" (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.33, 2.02), "ascites" (1.48, 95% CI 1.17, 1.86), "chronic airway obstruction" (1.17, 95% CI 1.07, 1.29), and "abnormal findings on examination of the lung" (1.51, 95% CI 1.22, 1.87). Analyses of lung spirometry measures provided further support for compromised respiratory function. PheWAS on individual OC variants identified five genetic variants associated with other diseases, and seven variants associated with biomarkers (all, p ≤ 4.5 × 10-8 ). Colocalization analysis identified rs4449583 (from TERT locus) as the shared causal variant for OC and seborrheic keratosis. CONCLUSIONS: OC is associated with digestive and respiratory comorbidities. Several variants affecting OC risk were associated with other diseases and biomarkers, with this study identifying a novel genetic locus shared between OC and skin conditions.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality-a linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Many observational studies support light-to-moderate alcohol intake as potentially protective against premature death. We used a genetic approach to evaluate the linear and nonlinear relationships between alcohol consumption and mortality from different underlying causes. METHODS: We used data from 278 093 white-British UK Biobank participants, aged 37-73 years at recruitment and with data on alcohol intake, genetic variants, and mortality. Habitual alcohol consumption was instrumented by 94 variants. Linear Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted using five complementary approaches, and nonlinear MR analyses by the doubly-ranked method. RESULTS: There were 20 834 deaths during the follow-up (median 12.6 years). In conventional analysis, the association between alcohol consumption and mortality outcomes was 'J-shaped'. In contrast, MR analyses supported a positive linear association with premature mortality, with no evidence for curvature (Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21 for all outcomes). The odds ratio [OR] for each standard unit increase in alcohol intake was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.39) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI 1.10-1.53) for cardiovascular disease, 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.33) for cancer, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.12) for digestive disease mortality. These results were consistent across pleiotropy-robust methods. There was no clear evidence for an association between alcohol consumption and mortality from respiratory diseases or COVID-19 (1.32, 95% CI 0.96-1.83 and 1.46, 95% CI 0.99-2.16, respectively; Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21). CONCLUSION: Higher levels of genetically predicted alcohol consumption had a strong linear association with an increased risk of premature mortality with no evidence for any protective benefit at modest intake levels.

Cross-ancestry genetic architecture and prediction for cholesterol traits.

While cholesterol is essential, a high level of cholesterol is associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proven successful in identifying genetic variants that are linked to cholesterol levels, predominantly in white European populations. However, the extent to which genetic effects on cholesterol vary across different ancestries remains largely unexplored. Here, we estimate cross-ancestry genetic correlation to address questions on how genetic effects are shared across ancestries. We find significant genetic heterogeneity between ancestries for cholesterol traits. Furthermore, we demonstrate that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with concordant effects across ancestries for cholesterol are more frequently found in regulatory regions compared to other genomic regions. Indeed, the positive genetic covariance between ancestries is mostly driven by the effects of the concordant SNPs, whereas the genetic heterogeneity is attributed to the discordant SNPs. We also show that the predictive ability of the concordant SNPs is significantly higher than the discordant SNPs in the cross-ancestry polygenic prediction. The list of concordant SNPs for cholesterol is available in GWAS Catalog. These findings have relevance for the understanding of shared genetic architecture across ancestries, contributing to the development of clinical strategies for polygenic prediction of cholesterol in cross-ancestral settings.

A Metabolome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Study Identifies Dysregulated Arachidonic Acid Synthesis as a Potential Causal Risk Factor for Bipolar Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a debilitating mood disorder with an unclear etiology. A better understanding of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms will help to identify novel targets for improved treatment options and prevention strategies. In this metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization study, we screened for metabolites that may have a causal role in BPD. METHODS: We tested a total of 913 circulating metabolite exposures assessed in 14,296 Europeans using a mass spectrometry-based platform. For the BPD outcome, we used summary data from the largest and most recent genome-wide association study reported to date, including 41,917 BPD cases. RESULTS: We identified 33 metabolites associated with BPD (padjusted < 5.48 × 10-5). Most of them were lipids, including arachidonic acid (ß = -0.154, SE = 0.023, p = 3.30 × 10-11), a polyunsaturated omega-6 fatty acid, along with several complex lipids containing either an arachidonic or a linoleic fatty acid side chain. These associations did not extend to other closely related psychiatric disorders like schizophrenia or depression, although they may be involved in the regulation of lithium response. These lipid associations were driven by genetic variants within the FADS1/2/3 gene cluster, which is a robust BPD risk locus encoding a family of fatty acid desaturase enzymes that are responsible for catalyzing the conversion of linoleic acid into arachidonic acid. Statistical colocalization analyses indicated that 27 of the 33 metabolites shared the same genetic etiology with BPD at the FADS1/2/3 cluster, demonstrating that our findings are not confounded by linkage disequilibrium. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings support the notion that arachidonic acid and other polyunsaturated fatty acids may represent potential targets for BPD.

Mitigating type 1 error inflation and power loss in GxE PRS: Genotype-environment interaction in polygenic risk score models.

The use of polygenic risk score (PRS) models has transformed the field of genetics by enabling the prediction of complex traits and diseases based on an individual's genetic profile. However, the impact of genotype-environment interaction (GxE) on the performance and applicability of PRS models remains a crucial aspect to be explored. Currently, existing genotype-environment interaction polygenic risk score (GxE PRS) models are often inappropriately used, which can result in inflated type 1 error rates and compromised results. In this study, we propose novel GxE PRS models that jointly incorporate additive and interaction genetic effects although also including an additional quadratic term for nongenetic covariates, enhancing their robustness against model misspecification. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our proposed models outperform existing models in terms of controlling type 1 error rates and enhancing statistical power. Furthermore, we apply the proposed models to real data, and report significant GxE effects. Specifically, we highlight the impact of our models on both quantitative and binary traits. For quantitative traits, we uncover the GxE modulation of genetic effects on body mass index by alcohol intake frequency. In the case of binary traits, we identify the GxE modulation of genetic effects on hypertension by waist-to-hip ratio. These findings underscore the importance of employing a robust model that effectively controls type 1 error rates, thus preventing the occurrence of spurious GxE signals. To facilitate the implementation of our approach, we have developed an innovative R software package called GxEprs, specifically designed to detect and estimate GxE effects. Overall, our study highlights the importance of accurate GxE modeling and its implications for genetic risk prediction, although providing a practical tool to support further research in this area.