High five-year mortality rates of ischemic stroke subtypes: A prospective cohort study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Studies regarding long-term outcomes of ischemic stroke subtypes are scarce in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to measure the five-year prognosis of ischemic stroke subtypes in Joinville, Brazil. METHODS: All first-ever ischemic strokes that occurred in Joinville in 2010 were followed-up for five years. RESULTS: We included 334 ischemic stroke patients. Over five years, 156 died, 51 had a recurrent stroke, and 128 were free of recurrent stroke. The overall cumulative risk of death was 17% (95% CI, 13% to 22%) at 30 days and 47% (95% CI, 41% to 52%) after five years. Undetermined with incomplete investigation ischemic stroke had a significantly worse survival probability (ß -4.91; 95% CI, -6.31 to -3.50; p < 0.001), followed by cardioembolic ischemic stroke (ß -3.07; 95% CI, -4.32 to -1.83; p < 0.001) and large artery disease ischemic stroke (ß -1.95; 95% CI, -3.30 to -0.60; p = 0.005). The survival probability of undetermined with negative investigation or cryptogenic ischemic stroke did not differ significantly from small artery disease ischemic stroke (ß -1.022; 95% CI, -3.37 to -1.43; p = 0.414). The five-year mortality for small artery disease ischemic stroke was 30% (95% CI, 22% to 39%) and 47% (95% CI, 35% to 60%) for large artery ischemic stroke. The risk of stroke recurrence was 2% in the first year and 5% in the second year. The proportion of disability among survivors in the first month ranged from 8% (95% CI, 3-15) for small artery disease ischemic stroke to 40% (95% CI, 30-52) for cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cardioembolic and undetermined with incomplete investigation ischemic stroke sub-types have a poor long-term prognosis. An alarming finding was that our patients with both small and large artery ischemic stroke had higher five-year mortality rates compared with subjects from high-income countries.

Five-year survival, disability, and recurrence after first-ever stroke in a middle-income country: A population-based study in Joinvile, Brazil.

Background Information about long-term outcomes after stroke in developing countries provided by population-based methodologies is scarce. Aim This study aimed to know outcomes five years after a first-ever stroke in Joinville, Brazil. Methods Data were extracted from the Joinville Stroke Registry about all patients who had strokes in Joinville in 2010 and were followed up to 2015. Stroke recurrence, Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities, functional outcomes, and causes of death were ascertained at 30 days, six months, one and five years. Results A total of 399 strokes were studied. The mean age was 64 (standard deviation 16) years. After five years, 52% (95% confidence interval: 47-57%) survived and 20% (95% confidence interval: 15-26%) of the survivors had modified Rankin scale scores >2. More than half of these patients were institutionalized in nursing or home care settings. The average risk of death per year was ≈7%. Survival rates were significantly lower for subarachnoid hemorrhage and primary intracerebral hemorrhage than for ischemic stroke. The five-year recurrence rate was 12% (95% confidence interval: 9-15%). The index stroke was the cause of death in three quarters of the patients. Conclusions The results showed that 68% of the patients with stroke were either dead or disabled five years after first-ever stroke. This percentage is similar to proportions of other recent cohorts from developed countries, despite the lower age of the patients in this study.