Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions.

Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.

Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate.

To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for 36Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured 36Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30-75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.

Near-field fault slip of the 2016 Vettore Mw 6.6 earthquake (Central Italy) measured using low-cost GNSS.

The temporal evolution of slip on surface ruptures during an earthquake is important for assessing fault displacement, defining seismic hazard and for predicting ground motion. However, measurements of near-field surface displacement at high temporal resolution are elusive. We present a novel record of near-field co-seismic displacement, measured with 1-second temporal resolution during the 30th October 2016 Mw 6.6 Vettore earthquake (Central Italy), using low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers located in the footwall and hangingwall of the Mt. Vettore - Mt. Bove fault system, close to new surface ruptures. We observe a clear temporal and spatial link between our near-field record and InSAR, far-field GPS data, regional measurements from the Italian Strong Motion and National Seismic networks, and field measurements of surface ruptures. Comparison of these datasets illustrates that the observed surface ruptures are the propagation of slip from depth on a surface rupturing (i.e. capable) fault array, as a direct and immediate response to the 30th October earthquake. Large near-field displacement ceased within 6-8 seconds of the origin time, implying that shaking induced gravitational processes were not the primary driving mechanism. We demonstrate that low-cost GNSS is an accurate monitoring tool when installed as custom-made, short-baseline networks.