EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.

Development of disturbance of consciousness is associated with increased severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Disturbance of consciousness (DOC) may develop in acute pancreatitis (AP). In clinical practice, it is known that DOC may worsen the patient's condition, but we have no exact data on how DOC affects the outcome of AP. METHODS: From the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Groups' AP registry, 1220 prospectively collected cases were analyzed, which contained exact data on DOC, included patients with confusion, delirium, convulsion, and alcohol withdrawal, answering a post hoc defined research question. Patients were separated to Non-DOC and DOC, whereas DOC was further divided into non-alcohol related DOC (Non-ALC DOC) and ALC DOC groups. For statistical analysis, independent sample t-test, Mann-Whitney, Chi-squared, or Fisher exact test were used. RESULTS: From the 1220 patients, 47 (3.9%) developed DOC, 23 (48.9%) cases were ALC DOC vs. 24 (51.1%) Non-ALC DOC. Analysis between the DOC and Non-DOC groups showed a higher incidence of severe AP (19.2% vs. 5.3%, p < 0.001), higher mortality (14.9% vs. 1.7%, p < 0.001), and a longer length of hospitalization (LOH) (Me = 11; IQR: 8-17 days vs. Me = 9; IQR: 6-13 days, p = 0.049) respectively. Patients with ALC DOC developed more frequently moderate AP vs. Non-ALC DOC (43.5% vs. 12.5%), while the incidence of severe AP was higher in Non-ALC vs. ALC DOC group (33.3% vs. 4.4%) (p < 0.001). LOH showed a tendency to be longer in Non-ALC DOC compared to ALC DOC, respectively (Me:13; IQR:7-20 days vs. Me:9.5; IQR:8-15.5 days, p = 0.119). CONCLUSION: DOC during AP is associated with a higher rate of moderate and severe AP and increases the risk of mortality.

Baveno Criteria Safely Identify Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Who Can Avoid Variceal Screening Endoscopy: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Meta-Analysis.

Background: The Baveno VI Consensus Workshop defined criteria (liver stiffness measured by transient elastography <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 109 cells/L) to identify those patients with compensated advanced chronic liver diseases (cACLD) who are unlikely to have varices needing treatment (VNTs) and can safely avoid variceal screening endoscopy. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the safety and efficacy of these criteria in suspected cACLD with liver stiffness >10 kPa and in compensated chronic liver diseases (cCLD) irrespective of liver stiffness. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in nine databases for studies discussed cACLD or cCLD and tested Baveno criteria against variceal screening endoscopy. The main safety and efficacy endpoints were missed VNT rate and spared endoscopy rate (SER), respectively; calculated with the random effect model. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated with the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model. For all outcome measures, 95% confidence intervals were computed. Heterogeneity was tested with I 2-statistics. Results: The search yielded 13 studies including 4,464 patients which reported on suspected cACLD. Pooled missed VNT rate was 0.3% (0.1-0.6%; I 2 = 45.5%), pooled SER was 32.8% (24.8-41.4%; I 2 = 97.0%). Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of Baveno criteria were 97% (95-98%), 41% (27-57%), and 96% (94-97%), respectively. In the subgroups of cACLD from hepatitis C and B viruses, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis, or alcohol, missed VNT rates were 0.0% (0.0-0.3%), 1.2% (0.4-2.2%), 0.0% (0.0-1.3%), or 0.0% (0.0-0.4%), while SERs were 24.2% (20.5-28.1%), 24.9% (21.7-28.4%), 38.6% (10.9-70.8%), or 27.0% (16.9-38.4%), respectively. If we expanded the study population to cCLD, 27 studies included 7,534 patients. Missed VNT rate was 0.2% (0.1-0.5%; I 2 = 39.8%) with a SER of 30.5% (25.2-36.2%; I 2 = 96.1%) while Se, Sp, and AUC were 97% (93-99%), 35% (27-44%), and 80% (77-84%), respectively. Conclusions: The application of Baveno criteria significantly reduces the number of unnecessary variceal screening endoscopies while being safe: cACLD patients with liver stiffness <20 kPa and platelet count > 150 × 109 cells/L carry a very low chance (i.e., 0.3%) of having VNTs. The criteria preserve low missed VNT rate with lower diagnostic performance among cCLD patients.

[A diagnostic challenge: paraduodenal pancreatitis. Two case reports]. / Egy diagnosztikus kihívás: paraduodenalis pancreatitis. Két eset bemutatása.

The paraduodenal, or groove pancreatitis is a lesser-known type of chronic pancreatitis, often mimicking malignancy, hence resulting in serious differential diagnostic challenges. Herein we report two cases of this entity. Both required analysis of the surgical specimen in order to ensure the diagnosis due to inadequate preoperative histological sampling and a vague clinical presentation. In the first case, strong suspicion of malignancy following imaging, while in the second, severe gastric outlet stenosis indicated the resection. In our report, we give a clinicopathological summary from the literature of this entity, including its epidemiology, clinical presentation and applicable diagnostic methods as well as macroscopic and microscopic pathomorphology. The pathogenesis of this disease is complex. Beside the role of alcohol, anatomic variations of the pancreatic ductal system, pancreatic islets in duodenal wall resulting from incomplete involution of dorsal pancreas, or Brunner gland hyperplasia (often observed as part of the lesion) can all play a role in the disturbance of pancreatic fluid discharge in the minor papilla area, eventually leading to this specific localised inflammation. In addition, recent investigations revealed a susceptible role of genetic polymorphism in the persistent inflammatory disorders of the pancreas. Besides summarizing the differential diagnostic aspects, we also discuss therapeutic possibilities, underlining the conservative methods, which can be used with good efficacy after a successful identification of this entity. Orv Hetil. 2019; 160(22): 873-879.

Classical celiac disease is more frequent with a double dose of HLA-DQB1*02: A systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Experimental data suggest that the HLA-DQ2 gene dose has a strong quantitative effect on clinical outcomes and severity of celiac disease (CD). We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis with systematic review to investigate the association between HLA-DQB1*02 gene doses and the characteristics of CD. METHODS: We searched seven medical databases for studies discussing HLA-DQB1 gene dose in CD and various disease characteristics, such as clinical presentation, histology, age at diagnosis, and comorbidities. Odds ratios (OR, for categorical variables) and weighted mean differences (for age) were calculated to compare patients with a double dose of HLA-DQB1*02 versus those with single and zero doses. Heterogeneity was tested with I2-statistics and explored by study subgroups (children and adults). RESULTS: Twenty-four publications were eligible for meta-analysis. Classical CD was more frequent with a double versus single dose of the HLA-DQB1*02 allele (OR = 1.758, 95%CI: 1.148-2.692, I2 = 0.0%). In pediatric studies, gene dose effect was more prominent (OR = 2.082, 95%CI: 1.189-3.646, I2 = 0.0% and OR = 3.139, 95%CI: 1.142-8.630, I2 = 0.0% for the comparisons of double versus single and double versus zero dose, respectively). Atrophic histology was more prevalent with a double versus zero dose (OR = 2.626, CI: 1.060-6.505, I2 = 21.3%). We observed no gene dose effect regarding diarrhea, age at diagnosis, the severity of villous atrophy, and the association with type 1 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: A double dose of HLA-DQB1*02 gene seems to predispose patients to developing classical CD and villous atrophy. Risk stratification by HLA-DQB1*02 gene dose requires further clarification due to the limited available evidence.

Gender difference in the effects of interleukin-6 on grip strength - a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aging sarcopenia characterized by low muscle mass with low muscle strength affects men and women differently. The contribution of interleukin-6 (IL-6) to sarcopenia has been suggested based on a negative correlation between plasma IL-6 and muscle function described by some studies. However, no consensus regarding clinically relevant cut-off criteria has been reached. Another question arises whether pooling male and female data is an accurate way to determine the predictive value of IL-6 in sarcopenia. The present meta-analysis was designed to assess: (1) whether plasma IL-6 in aged populations in fact correlates negatively to muscle strength; (2) whether such a correlation exists both in men and in women; and (3) whether plasma IL-6 shows a gender difference in old age. METHODS: We applied the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA). We searched PubMed and Embase for papers that reported data on individuals over 65 without inflammatory diseases. We extracted either separate male and female data on plasma IL-6 along with at least one muscle parameter or correlation coefficient between plasma IL-6 and these parameters. Random effect models calculated with DerSimonian and Laird weighting methods were applied to analyze correlation coefficients and gender difference in plasma IL-6. Egger's test was used to assess the small study effect. RESULTS: Twenty articles out of 468 records identified were suitable for analyses. Plasma IL-6 correlates negatively with grip strength in mixed populations and also separately in men [- 0.25 with 95% confidence interval (CI): - 0.48, - 0.02] and in women (- 0.14 with 95% CI: - 0.24, - 0.03). However, contrary to expectations, men with better muscle condition have higher plasma IL-6 than women of similar age with worse muscle condition (plasma IL-6 male-female difference: 0.25 pg/mL with 95% CI: 0.15, 0.35). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to demonstrate that a higher predictive IL-6 cut-off level should be determined for aging sarcopenia in men than in women.

Presence and Effects of Pituitary Adenylate Cyclase Activating Polypeptide Under Physiological and Pathological Conditions in the Stomach.

Pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide (PACAP) is a multifunctional neuropeptide with widespread occurrence throughout the body including the gastrointestinal system. In the small and large intestine, effects of PACAP on cell proliferation, secretion, motility, gut immunology and blood flow, as well as its importance in bowel inflammatory reactions and cancer development have been shown and reviewed earlier. However, no current review is available on the actions of PACAP in the stomach in spite of numerous data published on the gastric presence and actions of the peptide. Therefore, the aim of the present review is to summarize currently available data on the distribution and effects of PACAP in the stomach. We review data on the localization of PACAP and its receptors in the stomach wall of various mammalian and non-mammalian species, we then give an overview on PACAP's effects on secretion of gastric acid and various hormones. Effects on cell proliferation, differentiation, blood flow and gastric motility are also reviewed. Finally, we outline PACAP's involvement and changes in various human pathological conditions.

Steroid but not Biological Therapy Elevates the risk of Venous Thromboembolic Events in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] is associated with a 1.5- to 3-fold increased risk of venous thromboembolism [VTE] events. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of VTE in IBD as a complication of systemic corticosteroids and anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha [TNFα] therapies. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted, which conforms to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses [PRISMA] statement. PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched for English-language studies published from inception inclusive of 15 April 2017. The population-intervention-comparison-outcome [PICO] format and statistically the random-effects and fixed-effect models were used to compare VTE risk during steroid and anti-TNFα treatment. Quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The PROSPERO registration number is 42017070084. RESULTS: We identified 817 records, of which eight observational studies, involving 58518 IBD patients, were eligible for quantitative synthesis. In total, 3260 thromboembolic events occurred. Systemic corticosteroids were associated with a significantly higher rate of VTE complication in IBD patients as compared to IBD patients without steroid medication (odds ratio [OR]: 2.202; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.698-2.856, p < 0.001). In contrast, treatment with anti-TNFα agents resulted in a 5-fold decreased risk of VTE compared to steroid medication [OR: 0.267; 95% CI: 0.106-0.674, p = 0.005]. CONCLUSION: VTE risk should be carefully assessed and considered when deciding between anti-TNFα and steroids in the management of severe flare-ups. Thromboprophylaxis guidelines should be followed, no matter the therapy choice.

PPIs Prevent Aspirin-Induced Gastrointestinal Bleeding Better than H2RAs. A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Aspirin is one of the most widely used medication for its analgesic and anti-platelet properties and thus a major cause for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. This study compared the preventive effect of histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) against chronic low-dose aspirin (LDA)-related GI bleeding and ulcer formation. METHODS: Electronic databases of Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for human observations (randomised controlled trials and observational studies) comparing the long term effects of PPIs and H2RAs treatment in the prevention of GI bleeding or ulcer formation in patients on chronic LDA treatment listed up till September 30, 2016. Two independent authors searched databases using PICO questions (aspirin, H2RA, PPI, GI bleeding or ulcer), and reviewed abstracts and articles for comprehensive studies keeping adequate study quality. Data of weighted odds ratios were statistically evaluated using Comprehensive Metaanalysis (Biostat, Inc., Engelwood, MJ, USA), potential bias was checked. RESULTS: Nine studies for GI bleeding and eight studies for ulcer formation were found meeting inclusion criteria, altogether 1,879 patients were included into review. The H2RAs prevented less effectively LDA-related GI bleeding (OR= 2.102, 95% CI: 1.008-4.385, p<0.048) and ulcer formation (OR= 2.257, 95% CI: 1.277-3.989, p<0.005) than PPIs. CONCLUSION: The meta-analysis showed that H2RAs were less effective in the prevention of LDA-related GI bleeding and ulcer formation suggesting the preferable usage of PPIs in case of tolerance.

Intestinal Microbiota Changes in Mice Lacking Pituitary Adenylate Cyclase Activating Polypeptide (PACAP) - Bifidobacteria Make the Difference.

Pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypetide (PACAP) constitutes a neuropeptide that is widely distributed in the host exerting essential cytoprotective properties, whereas PACAP-/- mice display increased susceptibility to distinct immunopathological conditions. The orchestrated interplay between the gut microbiota and the host is pivotal in immune homeostasis and resistance to disease. Potential pertubations of the intestinal microbiota in PACAP-/- mice, however, have not been addressed so far. For the first time, we performed a comprehensive survey of the intestinal microbiota composition in PACAP-/- and wildtype (WT) mice starting 2 weeks postpartum until 18 months of age applying quantitative culture-independent techniques. Fecal enterobacteria and enterococci were lower in PACAP-/- than WT mice aged 1 month and ≥6 months, respectively. Whereas Mouse Intestinal Bacteroides were slightly higher in PACAP-/- versus WT mice aged 1 and 6 months, this later in life held true for Bacteroides/Prevotella spp. (≥12 months) and lactobacilli (>15 months of age). Strikingly, health-beneficial bifidobacteria were virtually absent in the intestines of PACAP-/- mice, even when still breastfed. In conclusion, PACAP deficiency is accompanied by distinct changes in fecal microbiota composition with virtually absent bifidobacteria as a major hallmark that might be linked to increased susceptibility to disease.

In middle-aged and old obese patients, training intervention reduces leptin level: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leptin is one of the major adipokines in obesity that indicates the severity of fat accumulation. It is also an important etiological factor of consequent cardiometabolic and autoimmune disorders. Aging has been demonstrated to aggravate obesity and to induce leptin resistance and hyperleptinemia. Hyperleptinemia, on the other hand, may promote the development of age-related abnormalities. While major weight loss has been demonstrated to ameliorate hyperleptinemia, obese people show a poor tendency to achieve lasting success in this field. The question arises whether training intervention per se is able to reduce the level of this adipokine. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to review the literature on the effects of training intervention on peripheral leptin level in obesity during aging, in order to evaluate the independent efficacy of this method. In the studies that were included in our analysis, changes of adiponectin levels (when present) were also evaluated. DATA SOURCES: 3481 records were identified through searching of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library Database. Altogether 19 articles were suitable for analyses. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Empirical research papers were eligible provided that they reported data of middle-aged or older (above 45 years of age) overweight or obese (body mass index above 25) individuals and included physical training intervention or at least fitness status of groups together with corresponding blood leptin values. STATISTICAL METHODS: We used random effect models in each of the meta-analyses calculating with the DerSimonian and Laird weighting methods. I-squared indicator and Q test were performed to assess heterogeneity. To assess publication bias Egger's test was applied. In case of significant publication bias, the Duval and Tweedie's trim and fill algorithm was used. RESULTS: Training intervention leads to a decrease in leptin level of middle-aged or older, overweight or obese male and female groups, even without major weight loss, indicated by unchanged serum adiponectin levels. Resistance training appears to be more efficient in reducing blood leptin level than aerobic training alone. CONCLUSIONS: Physical training, especially resistance training successfully reduces hyperleptinemia even without diet or major weight loss.

Low fermentable oligosaccharides, disaccharides, monosaccharides and polyols (FODMAP) diet improves symptoms in adults suffering from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) compared to standard IBS diet: A meta-analysis of clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and functional digestive tract disorders, e.g. functional bloating, carbohydrate maldigestion and intolerances, are very common disorders frequently causing significant symptoms that challenge health care systems. A low Fermentable Oligosaccharides, Disaccharides, Monosaccharides and Polyols (FODMAP) diet is one of the possible therapeutic approaches for decreasing abdominal symptoms and improving quality of life. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to meta-analyze data on the therapeutic effect of a low-FODMAP diet on symptoms of IBS and quality of life and compare its effectiveness to a regular, standard IBS diet with high FODMAP content, using a common scoring system, the IBS Symptom Severity Score (IBS-SSS). METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library as well as in the references in a recent meta-analysis. Adult patients diagnosed with IBS according to the Rome II, Rome III, Rome IV or NICE criteria were included in the analysis. STATISTICAL METHODS: Mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated from studies that contained means, standard deviation (SD) or mean differences and SD of differences and p-values. A random effect model was used because of the heterogeneity (Q test (χ2) and I2 indicator). A p-value of less than 0.05 was chosen to indicate a significant difference. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 902 publications, but only 10 were eligible for our meta-analysis. Both regular and low-FODMAP diets proved to be effective in IBS, but post-diet IBS-SSS values were significantly lower (p = 0.002) in the low-FODMAP group. The low-FODMAP diet showed a correlation with the improvement of general symptoms (by IBS-SSS) in patients with IBS. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides high-grade evidence of an improved general symptom score among patients with irritable bowel syndrome who have maintained a low-FODMAP diet compared to those on a traditional IBS diet, therefore showing its superiority to regular IBS dietary therapy. These data suggest that a low-FODMAP diet with dietitian control can be a candidate for first-line therapeutic modality in IBS. Because of a lack of data, well-planned randomized controlled studies are needed to ascertain the correlation between improvement of separate key IBS symptoms and the effect of a low-FODMAP diet.

Is Heller myotomy better than balloon dilation? A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Endoscopic balloon dilation (EBD) and laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) are the most commonly performed treatment options for achalasia. Decision between these treatment options is difficult. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy of EBD compared to LHM. METHODS: The electronic databases PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry were systematically searched for the period between January 1, 1976 and December 31, 2015. Meta-analysis was performed using the PICOS (problem, intervention, comparison, outcome, study design) format. Efficacy and safety of EBD were compared to LHM. Forest plot analyses were used to illustrate the success rate, perforation rate and post-procedural gastroesophageal reflux. RESULTS: Using the search strategy, eight studies met the selection criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The total number of patients included was 749 (360 in the EBD group and 389 in the LHM group). The success rate was lower in the EBD group than in the LHM group (OR=0.486; CI: 0.304-0.779; p=0.003). The rate of perforation did not differ significantly between the EBD and LHM group (RR= 0.635, CI: 0.340-1.186, p=0.154). The incidence of post-procedural symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux did not differ between the two treatment groups (RR=0.663, CI: 0.328-1.343, p=0.254). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the efficacy of LHM is superior to that of EBD, while there is no difference in safety between the two treatment groups.

Transpancreatic sphincterotomy has a higher cannulation success rate than needle-knife precut papillotomy - a meta-analysis.

Background and aim While many studies have discussed the different cannulation techniques used in patients with difficult biliary access, no previous meta-analyses have compared transpancreatic sphincterotomy (TPS) to other advanced techniques. Therefore, we aimed to identify all studies comparing the efficacy and adverse event rates of TPS with needle-knife precut papillotomy (NKPP), the most commonly used technique, and to perform a meta-analysis. Methods The Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane databases were searched for trials comparing the outcomes of TPS with NKPP up till December 2016. A meta-analysis focusing on outcome (cannulation success, post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP), post-procedural bleeding, and total adverse events) was performed. The population, intervention, comparison, outcome (PICO) format was used to compare these cannulation approaches. Five prospective and eight retrospective studies were included in our meta-analysis. Results NKPP has a significantly lower success rate (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, P = 0.046; relative risk [RR] 0.92, P = 0.03) and a higher rate of bleeding complications (OR 2.24, P = 0.02; RR 2.18, P = 0.02) than TPS. However, no significant differences were found in PEP (OR 0.79, P = 0.24; RR 0.80, P = 0.19), perforation (risk difference [RD] 0.01, P = 0.23), or total complication rates (OR 1.22, P = 0.44; RR 1.17, P = 0.47). Conclusion While TPS has a higher success rate in difficult biliary access and causes less bleeding than NKPP, there are no differences in PEP, perforation, or total complication rates between the two approaches. We conclude that TPS, in the hands of expert endoscopists, is a safe procedure, which should be used more widely in patients with difficult biliary access.

Chronic pancreatitis: Multicentre prospective data collection and analysis by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pancreatitis is an inflammatory disease associated with structural and functional damage to the pancreas, causing pain, maldigestion and weight loss and thus worsening the quality of life. AIMS AND METHODS: Our aim was to find correlations from a multicentre database representing the epidemiological traits, diagnosis and treatment of the disease in Hungary. The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group collected data prospectively from 2012 to 2014 on patients suffering from chronic pancreatitis. Statistical analysis was performed on different questions. RESULTS: Data on 229 patients (74% male and 26% female) were uploaded from 14 centres. Daily alcohol consumption was present in the aetiology of 56% of the patients. 66% of the patients were previously treated for acute exacerbation. One third of the patients had had previous endoscopic or surgical interventions. Pain was present in 69% of the cases, endocrine insufficiency in 33%, diarrhoea in 13% and weight loss in 39%. Diagnosis was confirmed with US (80%), CT scan (52%), MRI-MRCP (6%), ERCP (39%), and EUS (7,4%). A functional test was carried out in 5% of the patients. In 31% of the cases, an endoscopic intervention was performed with the need for re-intervention in 5%. Further elective surgical intervention was necessitated in 44% of endoscopies. 20% of the registered patients were primarily treated with surgery. The biliary complication rate for surgery was significantly smaller (2%) than endoscopy (27%); however, pancreatic complications were higher in the patients treated with surgery. Patients who smoked regularly needed significantly more surgical intervention following endoscopy (66.7% vs. 26.9%, p = 0.002) than non-smokers, and the ratio of surgical intervention alone was also significantly higher (27.3% vs. 10.8%, p = 0.004). The ratio of surgery in patients who smoked and drank was significantly higher (30.09% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.012) than in abstinent and non-smoking patients, similarly to the need for further surgical intervention after endoscopic treatment (71.43% vs. 27.78%, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: According to the data analysed, the epidemiological data and the aetiological factors in our cohort differ little from European trends. The study highlighted the overuse of ERCP as a diagnostic modality and the low ratio of use of endoscopic ultrasonography. The results proved that alcohol consumption and smoking represent risk factors for the increased need for surgical intervention. Chronic pancreatitis should be treated by multidisciplinary consensus grounded in evidence-based medicine.

Fever Is Associated with Reduced, Hypothermia with Increased Mortality in Septic Patients: A Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is usually accompanied by changes of body temperature (Tb), but whether fever and hypothermia predict mortality equally or differently is not fully clarified. We aimed to find an association between Tb and mortality in septic patients with meta-analysis of clinical trials. METHODS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry databases (from inception to February 2016). Human studies reporting Tb and mortality of patients with sepsis were included in the analyses. Average Tb with SEM and mortality rate of septic patient groups were extracted by two authors independently. RESULTS: Forty-two studies reported Tb and mortality ratios in septic patients (n = 10,834). Pearson correlation analysis revealed weak negative linear correlation (R2 = 0.2794) between Tb and mortality. With forest plot analysis, we found a 22.2% (CI, 19.2-25.5) mortality rate in septic patients with fever (Tb > 38.0°C), which was higher, 31.2% (CI, 25.7-37.3), in normothermic patients, and it was the highest, 47.3% (CI, 38.9-55.7), in hypothermic patients (Tb < 36.0°C). Meta-regression analysis showed strong negative linear correlation between Tb and mortality rate (regression coefficient: -0.4318; P < 0.001). Mean Tb of the patients was higher in the lowest mortality quartile than in the highest: 38.1°C (CI, 37.9-38.4) vs 37.1°C (CI, 36.7-37.4). CONCLUSIONS: Deep Tb shows negative correlation with the clinical outcome in sepsis. Fever predicts lower, while hypothermia higher mortality rates compared with normal Tb. Septic patients with the lowest (< 25%) chance of mortality have higher Tb than those with the highest chance (> 75%).

Prospective, Multicentre, Nationwide Clinical Data from 600 Cases of Acute Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyse the clinical characteristics of acute pancreatitis (AP) in a prospectively collected, large, multicentre cohort and to validate the major recommendations in the IAP/APA evidence-based guidelines for the management of AP. DESIGN: Eighty-six different clinical parameters were collected using an electronic clinical research form designed by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. PATIENTS: 600 adult patients diagnosed with AP were prospectively enrolled from 17 Hungarian centres over a two-year period from 1 January 2013. MAIN RESULTS: With respect to aetiology, biliary and alcoholic pancreatitis represented the two most common forms of AP. The prevalence of biliary AP was higher in women, whereas alcoholic AP was more common in men. Hyperlipidaemia was a risk factor for severity, lack of serum enzyme elevation posed a risk for severe AP, and lack of abdominal pain at admission demonstrated a risk for mortality. Abdominal tenderness developed in all the patients with severe AP, while lack of abdominal tenderness was a favourable sign for mortality. Importantly, lung injury at admission was associated with mortality. With regard to laboratory parameters, white blood cell count and CRP were the two most sensitive indicators for severe AP. The most common local complication was peripancreatic fluid, whereas the most common distant organ failure in severe AP was lung injury. Deviation from the recommendations in the IAP/APA evidence-based guidelines on fluid replacement, enteral nutrition and timing of interventions increased severity and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of a large, nationwide, prospective cohort of AP cases allowed for the identification of important determinants of severity and mortality. Evidence-based guidelines should be observed rigorously to improve outcomes in AP.

Meta-Analysis of Early Nutrition: The Benefits of Enteral Feeding Compared to a Nil Per Os Diet Not Only in Severe, but Also in Mild and Moderate Acute Pancreatitis.

The recently published guidelines for acute pancreatitis (AP) suggest that enteral nutrition (EN) should be the primary therapy in patients suffering from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP); however, none of the guidelines have recommendations on mild and moderate AP (MAP). A meta-analysis was performed using the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P). The following PICO (problem, intervention, comparison, outcome) was applied: P: nutrition in AP; I: enteral nutrition (EN); C: nil per os diet (NPO); and O: outcome. There were 717 articles found in Embase, 831 in PubMed, and 10 in the Cochrane database. Altogether, seven SAP and six MAP articles were suitable for analyses. In SAP, forest plots were used to illustrate three primary endpoints (mortality, multiorgan failure, and intervention). In MAP, 14 additional secondary endpoints were analyzed (such as CRP (C-reactive protein), WCC (white cell count), complications, etc.). After pooling the data, the Mann-Whitney U test was used to detect significant differences. Funnel plots were created for testing heterogeneity. All of the primary endpoints investigated showed that EN is beneficial vs. NPO in SAP. In MAP, all of the six articles found merit in EN. Analyses of the primary endpoints did not show significant differences between the groups; however, analyzing the 17 endpoints together showed a significant difference in favor of EN vs. NPO. EN is beneficial compared to a nil per os diet not only in severe, but also in mild and moderate AP.

Genetic analysis of the bicarbonate secreting anion exchanger SLC26A6 in chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal HCO3(-) secretion is critically dependent on the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator chloride channel (CFTR) and the solute-linked carrier 26 member 6 anion transporter (SLC26A6). Deterioration of HCO3(-) secretion is observed in chronic pancreatitis (CP), and CFTR mutations increase CP risk. Therefore, SLC26A6 is a reasonable candidate for a CP susceptibility gene, which has not been investigated in CP patients so far. METHODS: As a first screening cohort, 106 subjects with CP and 99 control subjects with no pancreatic disease were recruited from the Hungarian National Pancreas Registry. In 60 non-alcoholic CP cases the entire SLC26A6 coding region was sequenced. In the Hungarian cohort variants c.616G > A (p.V206M) and c.1191C > A (p.P397=) were further genotyped by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. In a German replication cohort all exons were sequenced in 40 non-alcoholic CP cases and variant c.616G > A (p.V206M) was further analyzed by sequencing in 321 CP cases and 171 controls. RESULTS: Sequencing of the entire coding region revealed four common variants: intronic variants c.23 + 78_110del, c.183-4C > A, c.1134 + 32C > A, and missense variant c.616G > A (p.V206M) which were found in linkage disequilibrium indicating a conserved haplotype. The distribution of the haplotype did not show a significant difference between patients and controls in the two cohorts. A synonymous variant c.1191C > A (p.P397=) and two intronic variants c.1248 + 9_20del and c.-10C > T were detected in single cases. CONCLUSION: Our data show that SLC26A6 variants do not alter the risk for the development of CP.

[Transient elastography as a predictor of oesophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis]. / Tranziens elasztográfia mint a nyelocso-varicositas prediktora májcirrhosisban szenvedo betegekben.

INTRODUCTION: One of the most serious complications of liver cirrhosis is variceal bleeding. Early recognition of the oesophageal varices is of primary importance in the prevention of variceal bleeding. Endoscopy is the only means to directly visualize varices and measure their size, as one of the most important predictor of the risk of bleeding. During the course of cirrhosis repeated oesophago-gastro-bulboscopic examinations are recommended. As these interventions are expensive and often poorly accepted by patients who may refuse further follow-up, there is a need for non-invasive methods to predict the progression of portal hypertension as well as the presence and the size of oesophageal varices. After several combinations of biological and ultrasonographical parameters proposed for the detection of advanced fibrosis, it was suggested that liver stiffness measured by transient elastography, a novel non-invasive technology may reflect not only fibrosis and portal pressure but it may even predict the presence or absence of large oesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis. AIM: The aim of the authors was to study the diagnostic accuracy of transient elastography using FibroScan for selecting patients who are at risk of bearing large (Paquet-grade ≥ II) oesophageal varices and high risk of bleeding. METHOD: The authors performed upper tract endoscopy and transient elastography in 74 patients with chronic liver disease (27 patients with chronic hepatitis and 47 patients with liver cirrhosis). The relationships between the presence of oesophageal varices (Paquet-grade 0-IV) and liver stiffness (kPa), as well as the hematological and biochemical laboratory parameters (prothrombine international normalized ratio, platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index) were investigated. The predictive role of liver stiffness for screening patients with varices and those who are at high risk of variceal bleeding was also analysed. RESULTS: Liver stiffness values significantly correlated with the grade of oesophageal varices (Paquet-grade) (r = 0.67, p<0.0001). The liver stiffness value of 19.2 kPa was highly predictive for the presence of oesophageal varices (AUROC: 0.885, 95% CI: 0.81-0.96) and for the presence of high grade varices (P≥II) (AUROC: 0.850, 95% CI: 0.754-0.94). Using the cut-off value of 19.2 kPa, the sensitivity of transient elastography was 85%, specificity was 87%, positive predictive value was 85%, negative predictive value was 87% and validity was 86% for the detection of varices. Liver stiffness values less than 19.2 kPa were highly predicitive for the absence of large (P≥II) varices (sensitivity, 95%; specificity, 70%; positive predictive value, 54%; negative predictive value, 97%). CONCLUSIONS: Transient elastography may help to screen patients who are at high risk of bearing large (P≥II) oesophageal varices which predict variceal bleeding and, therefore, need endoscopic screening. Lives stiffness values higher than 19.2 kPa indicate the need for oesophageal-gastro-bulboscopy, while liver stiffness values lower than 19.2 kPa make the presence of large oesophageal varices unlikely.