Synergistic effects of family history of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatitis B virus infection on risk for incident hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the effects of family history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on hepatitis B progression or risk of HCC. We examined how family HCC history and presence or stage of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affect risk for HCC. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort study of 22,472 participants from 7 townships in Taiwan who underwent evaluation for liver disease from 1991 through 1992. Those who received a first diagnosis of HCC from January 1, 1991, to December 31, 2008, were identified from the Taiwanese cancer registry. RESULTS: There were 374 cases of incident HCC over 362,268 person-years of follow-up evaluation. The cumulative risk of HCC in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seronegative patients without a family history of HCC was 0.62%, in those with a family history of HCC the cumulative risk was 0.65%, in HBsAg-seropositive patients without a family history of HCC the cumulative risk was 7.5%, and in HBsAg-seropositive patients with a family history of HCC the cumulative risk was 15.8% (P < .001). The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio for HBsAg-seropositive individuals with family history, compared with HBsAg-seronegative individuals without a family history of HCC, was 32.33 (95% confidence interval, 20.8-50.3; P < .001). The relative excess risk owing to interaction was 19, the attributable proportion was 0.59, and the synergy index value was 2.54. These findings indicate synergy between family HCC history and HBsAg serostatus. The synergy between these factors remained significant in stratification analyses by HBeAg serostatus and serum level of HBV DNA. CONCLUSIONS: Family history of HCC multiplies the risk of HCC at each stage of HBV infection. Patients with a family history of HCC require more intensive management of HBV infection and surveillance for liver cancer.

Prediction models of long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients: risk scores integrating host and virus profiles.

UNLABELLED: Integrating host and HBV characteristics, this study aimed to develop models for predicting long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. This analysis included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seropositive and anti-HCV-seronegative participants from the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer in HBV (R.E.V.E.A.L.-HBV) cohort. Newly developed cirrhosis and HCC were ascertained through regular follow-up ultrasonography, computerized linkage with national health databases, and medical chart reviews. Two-thirds of the participants were allocated for risk model derivation and another one-third for model validation. The risk prediction model included age, gender, HBV e antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum levels of HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), quantitative serum HBsAg levels, and HBV genotypes. Additionally, the family history was included in the prediction model for HCC. Cox's proportional hazards regression coefficients for cirrhosis and HCC predictors were converted into risk scores. The areas under receiver operating curve (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the performance of risk models. Elder age, male, HBeAg, genotype C, and increasing levels of ALT, HBV DNA, and HBsAg were all significantly associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. The risk scores estimated from the derivation set could accurately categorize participants with low, medium, and high cirrhosis and HCC risk in the validation set (P<0.001). The AUROCs for predicting 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year cirrhosis risk ranged 0.83-0.86 and 0.79-0.82 for the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The AUROC for predicting 5-year, 10-year, 15-year risk of HCC ranged 0.86-0.89 and 0.84-0.87 in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk prediction models of cirrhosis and HCC by integrating host and HBV profiles have excellent prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability. They may be used for clinical management of chronic hepatitis B patients.

A predictive scoring system for the seroclearance of HBsAg in HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B patients with genotype B or C infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss. METHODS: This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared. RESULTS: Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance.

Natural history of chronic hepatitis B: what exactly has REVEAL revealed?

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious public health problem because of its worldwide prevalence and potential to cause adverse consequences. The Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV) study carried out in Taiwan was used to investigate the natural history of chronic hepatitis B. The REVEAL-HBV study has established an HBV viral load paradigm in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Serum HBV DNA level has been shown to be significantly and independently associated with incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis and liver-related mortality across a biological gradient. It is also a major predictor of HBsAg seroclearance. Genetic features including HBV genotype and basal core promoter A1762T/G1764A mutant, and precore G1896A mutant were documented as predictors of HCC risk. Inactive HBV carriers still had an increased risk on HCC development and liver-related mortality compared with HBsAg -seronegatives. Nomograms focusing on facilitating risk communication between patients and clinicians were developed incorporating non-invasive clinical parameters to predict long-term HCC risk. These will hopefully contribute to evidence-based decisions in the clinical management of CHB patients. A somewhat provocative and novel finding from the REVEAL-HBV study is the association of chronic HBV infection in active replication with an increased pancreatic cancer risk especially in women less than 50 years old. This finding will hopefully spur further research in this area seeking confirmatory evidence. Finally, we hope that the REVEAL-HBV study will continue to be a source of data to answer other important questions in chronic hepatitis B research going forward.

Incidence and determinants of spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen and DNA in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are important markers of progression of chronic HBV infection. We performed a long-term cohort study to elucidate the incidence and determinants of HBeAg and HBV DNA seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: A total of 1289 participants with a serum HBV DNA level of 10,000 copies/mL or more and without cirrhosis when the study began (1991-1992) were followed up until June 2004. A subset of patients that tested positive for HBeAg at baseline (n = 439) was included in the analysis of HBeAg seroclearance. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate seroclearance rate ratios for various determinants associated with the outcomes. RESULTS: After 3161.2 person-years of follow-up evaluation, HBeAg seroclearance occurred in 187 participants (incidence rate, 5.9 per 100 person-years). The cumulative lifetime incidence of HBeAg seroclearance among patients who were 30 to 40, or 50, 60, 70, or 74 years old was 38.8%, 69.4%, 81.9%, 89.1%, and 95.5%, respectively. Major predictors of HBeAg seroclearance included female sex, genotype B, the precore 1896 mutant, increased serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, and low baseline serum levels of HBV DNA. The median (interquartile range) serum level of HBV DNA at the time of HBeAg seroclearance was 177,801 copies/mL (4941-3,247,560 copies/mL). HBV DNA seroclearance occurred in 199 participants (15.4%) during the mean follow-up period of 7.8 years (incidence rate, 1.97 per 100 person-years). The cumulative lifetime incidence of HBV DNA seroclearance at 40, 50, 60, 70, and 77 years old was 10.0%, 25.0%, 38.8%, 54.2%, and 82.8%, respectively. Lower levels of HBV DNA at study entry and among those with the precore 1896 wild-type variant were associated with an increased rate of HBV DNA seroclearance. Among individuals who were HBeAg-seropositive at study entry and cleared serum HBV DNA during the follow-up period, 89% had cleared HBeAg by the time they had an undetectable serum level of HBV DNA. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of HBV DNA is the most important predictor of seroclearance of HBeAg and HBV DNA. This finding supports current clinical guidelines for antiviral treatments of chronic hepatitis B.

Absenteeism and productivity among employees being treated for hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: To compare productivity, absence days, and absence costs for treated (HCV-Tx) and untreated (HCV-NoTx) US employees with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective database study. METHODS: Employee records from multiple large employers in the United States with data about demographics, jobs, and healthcare use in the Human Capital Management Services database were assessed. HCV subjects were identified by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes. To test differences between cohorts, t tests and χ2 tests were used. Regression modeling was used to compare absence days, costs,and objectively measured productivity, while controlling for confounding factors. For HCV-Tx employees, the index date was the date of the first treatment with interferon, peginterferon, and/or ribavirin. For HCV-NoTx employees, the index date was the average date by company among HCV-Tx employees. Absence and productivity were measured from each employee's index date to the last date the employee was enrolled in health benefits coverage. RESULTS: A total of 441 HCV-Tx and 1223 HCV-NoTx employees were evaluated. HCV-Tx workers had 0.52 more total monthly absence days and $31.31 in additional monthly absence payments per employee than untreated employees. Treated employees' productivity was lower, with treated subjects processing 11.7% fewer units per hour and 17.4% fewer units per month than untreated employees. CONCLUSIONS: This study quantified the substantial indirect burden of illness associated with use of current HCV treatments. New treatments are needed with improved adverse effect profiles that result in reduced absence from work and improved productivity among HCV-infected persons.

Lifetime risk and sex difference of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with chronic hepatitis B and C.

PURPOSE: Both hepatitis B (HBV) and C viruses (HCV) are causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but lifetime risk and sex difference remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the lifetime risk and sex difference of HCC among patients with chronic HBV and/or HCV. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 23,820 residents of Taiwan age 30 to 65 years were enrolled from 1991 to 1992, with 477 instances of HCC occurring subsequently. Serum samples collected at enrollment were tested for seromarkers and viral load of HBV and HCV. Newly developed HCC was ascertained through computerized data linkage with national cancer registry and death certification systems. RESULTS: The cumulative lifetime (age 30 to 75 years) incidences of HCC for men and women positive for both HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV) were 38.35% and 27.40%; for those positive for HBsAg only, 27.38% and 7.99%; for those positive for anti-HCV only, 23.73% and 16.71%; and for those positive for neither, 1.55% and 1.03%, respectively. There was a significant male predominance in incidence of HCC for chronic HBV carriers but not for chronic carriers of HCV or both. Multivariate adjusted hazard ratio of developing HCC decreased with age in HBsAg-seropositive men but increased with age in anti-HCV-seropositive women. Among dual-infected participants, there was an inverse association between HBV and HCV viral load. Risk of HCC increased significantly with increasing viral load of HBV and HCV. CONCLUSION: There exists a suppressive effect of HCV on HBV viral load. Individual and combined effects of the two viruses on HCC vary with sex and age.

Changes in serum levels of HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase determine risk for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is not clear whether risk for hepatocellular carcinoma can be accurately determined from long-term changes in serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA or alanine aminotransferase (ALT). METHODS: We measured serum levels of HBV DNA and ALT at enrollment and during follow-up analysis of 3160 participants in the REVEAL-HBV study. Development of hepatocellular carcinoma was determined from follow-up examinations and computerized linkage with National Cancer Registry and National Death Certification profiles. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: During 38,330 person-years of follow-up, 81 participants developed hepatocellular carcinoma (incidence rate, 211.3/100,000 person-years). The risk for hepatocellular carcinoma was only slightly higher for participants whose follow-up levels of HBV DNA spontaneously decreased to <10,000 copies/mL compared with those with baseline levels of HBV DNA<10,000 copies/mL (control group; HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 0.68-7.37). Compared with the control group, the HRs (95% CI) for long-term levels of HBV DNA that persisted at 10,000 to 100,000 copies/mL, decreased to/persisted at 100,000 to 1,000,000 copies/mL, or decreased to/persisted at 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 copies/mL were 3.12 (1.09-8.89), 8.85 (3.85-20.35), and 16.78 (7.33-38.39), respectively. A gradient in ALT level was significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma risk: from all low-normal, to ever high-normal, to transient abnormal, to persistent abnormal (Ptrend<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term changes in serum levels of HBV DNA and ALT are independent predictors of risk for hepatocellular carcinoma. Regular monitoring of levels of HBV DNA and ALT is important in clinical management of chronic carriers of HBV.

Incidence and determinants of spontaneous hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance: a community-based follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is one of the most important clinical outcomes for chronic hepatitis B treatment trials. Few studies have explored the incidence and determinants of spontaneous seroclearance using a long-term follow-up study. This study aimed to examine the natural history and predictors of HBsAg seroclearance. METHODS: A total of 3087 individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus infection were enrolled between 1991 and 1992 in this community-based study. Serum samples collected at baseline and follow-up examinations were tested for HBsAg, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), serum hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA levels, and anti-hepatitis C virus serostatus. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate HBsAg seroclearance rate ratios associated with various determinants. RESULTS: HBsAg seroclearance occurred in 562 participants during 24,829 person-years of follow-up evaluation, giving a 2.26% annual seroclearance rate. HBV-DNA levels at baseline and follow-up evaluation were the most significant predictor of seroclearance. Higher HBV viral loads conferred lower HBsAg seroclearance rates (P<.001). A spontaneous decrease in follow-up HBV-DNA level (>or=3 log) was associated significantly with seroclearance, showing an adjusted odds ratio of 4.17 (95% confidence interval, 2.55-6.82). Among those with seroclearance, 95.8% had undetectable HBV-DNA levels before seroclearance. Cumulative incidence of HBsAg seroclearance at 60 and 100 months after serum HBV-DNA level decreased to undetectable was 25.8% and 51.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals determinants of HBsAg seroclearance, and suggests that a low viral load is an important factor affecting the natural seroclearance of HBsAg, indicating significant clinical implications for the treatment of chronic HBV.

Nomograms for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

PURPOSE: Counseling patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) on their individual risk of liver disease progression is challenging. This study aimed to develop nomograms for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two thirds of the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV) study cohort was allocated for model derivation (n = 2,435), and the remaining third was allocated for model validation (n = 1,218). Previously confirmed independent risk predictors included in three Cox proportional hazards regression models were sex, age, family history of hepatocellular carcinoma, alcohol consumption habit, serum ALT level, hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum HBV DNA level, and HBV genotype. Regression coefficients were rounded into integer risk scores, and predicted risk over 5- and 10-year periods for each risk score was calculated and depicted in nomograms. The predictive accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the correlation between predicted and observed hepatocellular carcinoma risk. RESULTS: All selected risk predictors were statistically significant in all models. In each model, either HBeAg seropositivity or HBeAg seronegativity with high viral load (HBV DNA level >or= 100,000 copies/mL) and genotype C infection had the highest risk scores. All AUROCs for risk prediction nomogram were >or= 0.82 in both model derivation and validation sets. The correlation coefficients between the observed hepatocellular carcinoma risk and the nomogram-predicted risk were greater than 0.90 in all model derivation and validation sets. CONCLUSION: These easy-to-use nomograms based on noninvasive clinical characteristics can accurately predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B. They may facilitate risk communication between patients and clinicians.

Carriers of inactive hepatitis B virus are still at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk and the predictors of liver disease progression in carriers of inactive hepatitis B virus (HBV) are unclear. METHODS: Participants in the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV) study who were seronegative for hepatitis B e antigen; had serum levels of HBV DNA <10,000 copies/mL; and did not have cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or increased serum levels of alanine aminotransferase were classified as carriers of inactive HBV (n = 1932). Study participants who were seronegative for HB surface antigen and antibodies against hepatitis C virus, yet had similar clinical liver features, were the controls (n = 18,137). Liver-related death and new cases of hepatocellular carcinoma were ascertained through computerized data linkage with National Cancer Registry and Death Certification profiles. The disease progression rates were estimated. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for risk predictors were derived from Cox regression models. RESULTS: There were 20,069 participants, contributing a total of 262,122 person-years, with a mean follow-up of 13.1 years. Annual incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death were 0.06% and 0.04%, respectively, for inactive HBV carriers; rates were 0.02%, and 0.02% for controls, respectively. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for carriers of inactive HBV, compared to controls, were 4.6 (95% confidence interval: 2.5-8.3) for hepatocellular carcinoma and 2.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.1-4.1) for liver-related death. Older age and alcohol drinking habits were independent predictors of risk for carriers of inactive HBV to develop hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Carriers of inactive HBV have a substantial risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death compared with individuals not infected with HBV.

96-week efficacy and safety of atazanavir, with and without ritonavir, in a HAART regimen in treatment-naive patients.

This study assesses virologic response, safety, tolerability, and changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in antiretroviral (ARV)-naive patients treated with 2 atazanavir (ATV)-based regimens over 96 weeks. Treatment-naive adult patients (n = 200) were randomized to receive either ATV 300 mg with ritonavir (RTV) 100 mg (ATV300/r, n = 95) or ATV 400 mg (ATV400; n = 105). At week 96, 75% of ATV300/r-treated and 70% of ATV400-treated patients achieved viral loads <400 copies/mL (difference estimate [95% confidence interval, CI] = 5.1 [-7.1 to 17.2]). Five and 20 patients, respectively, experienced virologic failure. Adverse event-related discontinuations occurred among 8% receiving ATV300/r and 3% receiving ATV400. Plasma lipid elevations were generally low. Both regimens were well tolerated and associated with sustained improvements in HRQoL. These findings demonstrate long-term efficacy, tolerability, and safety of both ATV300/r and ATV400 in ARV-naive patients through 96 weeks with improvements in HRQoL.

Risk of pancreatic cancer in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: data from the REVEAL-HBV cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The relationship between the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and pancreatic cancer remains unclear. Because HBV has been isolated from pancreatic tissue, we hypothesized that HBV may play a role in the development of pancreatic carcinoma. METHODS: This cohort was recruited between 1991 and 1992. Serum samples obtained at enrolment were tested for HBsAg and HBeAg by radioimmunoassay. Pancreatic cancer diagnosis was ascertained through data linkage with profiles of the National Cancer Registry and Death Certification System in Taiwan from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2007. Multivariate-adjusted hazards ratios (HR(adj)) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were derived using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In total 22 471 subjects were followed up for 342 186 person-years and 48 had pancreatic cancer. Chronic carriers of HBsAg had a significantly increased risk of pancreatic cancer showing an HR(adj) (95% CI) of 1.95 (1.01-3.78). This association was most striking in females, individuals < or =50 years, non-smokers and non-drinkers. The HR(adj) (95% CI) of developing pancreatic cancer was 5.73 (1.73-19.05) for HBeAg-seropositive carriers and 1.64 (0.79-3.42) for HBeAg-seronegative carriers compared with HBsAg-seronegative non-carriers. An increased risk of pancreatic cancer was observed for HBsAg-seropositives with HBV DNA > or =300 copies/ml (HR(adj), 2.44; 95% CI, 1.20-4.95), but not for HBsAg-seropositives with HBV DNA <300 copies/ml (HR(adj), 0.64; 95% CI, 0.09-4.67). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to the well-established risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, chronic HBV infection may be associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer.

Hepatitis B virus DNA levels and outcomes in chronic hepatitis B.

Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels can fluctuate markedly during the course of chronic HBV infection. Both case-control and cohort studies have shown a significant, dose-response association between serum HBV DNA levels measured at the time of initial evaluation and the subsequent risk of cirrhosis. A similar direct relationship has been shown for the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies. Interventional studies have shown a strong correlation between the indices of disease activity seen on liver biopsy and levels of serum HBV DNA. These studies have also shown that reduction in HBV DNA levels correlate strongly with improvements in liver histology. For patients with HCC, prognosis (including risk of death, metastasis, and recurrence following surgery) is worse with higher serum HBV DNA levels. The preponderance of the evidence in the published literature demonstrates that serum HBV DNA level is an important and independent risk factor for disease progression in chronic hepatitis B. The relative importance of serial HBV DNA measurements, the loss of hepatitis B e and surface antigens, as well as the emergence of HBV mutants in the progression of chronic hepatitis B, especially in young patients, is an important need for future research.

Associations between hepatitis B virus genotype and mutants and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) increases with increasing level of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in serum (viral load). However, it is unclear whether genetic characteristics of HBV, including HBV genotype and specific genetic mutations, contribute to the risk of HCC. We examined the HCC risk associated with HBV genotypes and common variants in the precore and basal core promoter (BCP) regions. METHODS: From January 5, 1991, to December 21, 1992, baseline blood samples were collected from 2762 Taiwanese men and women who were seropositive for HBV surface antigen but had not been diagnosed with HCC; the samples were tested for HBV viral load by real-time polymerase chain reaction and genotyped by melting curve analysis. Participants who had a baseline serum HBV DNA level greater than 10(4) copies/mL (n = 1526) were tested for the precore G1896A and BCP A1762T/G1764A mutants by direct sequencing. Incident cases of HCC were ascertained through follow-up examinations and computerized linkage to the National Cancer Registry and death certification profiles. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of HCC associated with HBV genotype and precore and BCP mutants after adjustment for other risk factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A total of 153 HCC cases occurred during 33 847 person-years of follow-up. The HCC incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for participants infected with HBV genotype B or C were 305.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 236.9 to 388.1) and 785.8 (95% CI = 626.8 to 972.9), respectively. Among participants with a baseline HBV DNA level of at least 10(4) copies/mL, HCC incidence per 100 000 person-years was higher for those with the precore G1896 (wild-type) variant than for those with the G1896A variant (955.5 [95% CI = 749.0 to 1201.4] vs 269.4 [95% CI = 172.6 to 400.9]) and for those with the BCP A1762T/G1764A double mutant than for those with BCP A1762/G1764 (wild-type) variant (1149.2 [95% CI = 872.6 to 1485.6] vs 358.7 [95% CI = 255.1 to 490.4]). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of developing HCC was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.19 to 2.61) for genotype C vs genotype B, 0.34 (95% CI = 0.21 to 0.57) for precore G1896A vs wild type, and 1.73 (95% CI = 1.13 to 2.67) for BCP A1762T/G1764A vs wild type. Risk was highest among participants infected with genotype C HBV and wild type for the precore 1896 variant and mutant for the BCP 1762/1764 variant (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.99, 95% CI = 1.57 to 5.70, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: HBV genotype C and specific alleles of BCP and precore were associated with risk of HCC. These associations were independent of serum HBV DNA level.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of entecavir versus lamivudine in hepatitis BeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: As new treatment options for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) become available, evaluations of cost-effectiveness become important. Entecavir is a deoxyguanine nucleoside analogue approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in March 2005 for HBV infection in adults with evidence of active viral replication and either evidence of persistent elevations in serum aminotransferases (alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase) or histologically active disease. Entecavir has demonstrated greater suppression of viral replication compared with lamivudine, but also has a relatively higher drug acquisition cost in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term health and economic impact of treating HBV with entecavir versus lamivudine in patients who are positive for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) based on the efficacy and safety results of the Phase 3, double-blind, randomized controlled trial, Benefits of Entecavir for Hepatitis B Liver Disease (BEHoLD). METHODS: A decision tree model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of entecavir compared with lamuvidine in suppressing HBV DNA to an undetectable level. Risks for compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DC), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were derived from the published Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV, 2006) study, a longitudinal (mean follow-up: 11.4 years) cohort study of community residents who were seropositive for the hepatitis B surface antigen; 85% of REVEAL-HBV participants were HBeAg-negative. To estimate future risks of CC, DC, and HCC, the REVEAL-HBV study's multivariate-adjusted relative risks of CC, DC, and HCC for 5 HBV DNA (viral load level) categories were applied to posttreatment HBV DNA levels obtained from the BEHoLD trial of 709 HBeAg-positive HBV patients treated with entecavir (n = 354) or lamivudine (n = 355). Entecavir and lamivudine were assigned annual costs of $7,365 and $2,604, respectively, based on the wholesale acquisition cost. Life expectancy for DC and HCC was estimated by the declining exponential approximation of life expectancy method. Other model parameter values, such as utilities and event medical costs, were derived from published sources. The joint uncertainty of projected event time distribution and treatment failure rates beyond the trial period were considered using probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) with 1,000 replicates. The analytic perspective was that of a U.S. third-party payer responsible for all direct health care expenditures. RESULTS: In the BEHoLD clinical trial (AI463022), subjects were predominantly male (75%), Asian (57%), or white (40%) with a mean age of 35 years. Entecavir was superior to lamivudine in the proportion of subjects who achieved undetectable HBV DNA (< 300 copies per mL) by polymerase- chain reaction assay at week 48 (69.1% vs. 39.8%, respectively) (P < 0.001). In the REVEAL-HBV study after statistical adjustment for age, gender, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption, rates of CC, DC, and HCC were associated with higher HBV DNA levels (e.g., compared with the reference category [< 300 copies per mL], adjusted hazard ratios for HCC were 1.2, 2.9, 9.5, and 15.2 for serum HBV DNA levels of 300-9,999, 10,000-99,999, 100,000-999,999, and e > or = 1 million copies per mL, respectively). In the reference case, for a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 HBV patients aged 35 years, 52 weeks of entecavir treatment compared with lamivudine treatment avoided 71 cases of CC, 8 DC cases, and 42 HCC cases within 10 years, resulting in a 0.728 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain at an incremental cost of $2,350, with a 3% annual discount. The incremental cost of using entecavir was $3,230 per QALY gained (95% confidence interval [CI], $2,312-$4,528), with 99.3% of PSA-derived estimates below $5,000 per QALY. Results were robust and most sensitive to efficacy, drug cost, and treatment duration. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming that (1) the efficacy of entecavir after 1 year is sustainable and (2) liver disease risk levels from the REVEAL-HBV study population (a primarily HBeAg-negative group) adequately represent risk for a treated HBeAg-positive patient group, entecavir given for up to 10 years would be highly cost-effective in HBeAg-positive patients.

Long-term outcomes in hepatitis B: the REVEAL-HBV study.

This article reviews results from the REVEAL-HBV study, which found that hepatitis B virus DNA across a biologic gradient is very strongly predictive of the risk of disease progression and remains a strong predictor of risk after accounting for other important factors.

Risk and predictors of mortality associated with chronic hepatitis B infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study objective was to determine the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality as well as to examine the predictors of mortality in chronic hepatitis B infection. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of 23,820 persons (age, 30-65 y) recruited between 1991 and 1992 and followed up through 2004 from 7 townships in Taiwan. The main outcomes were all-cause and liver-related mortality rates. Mortality analyses used time-to-events methods, and survival curves were derived by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: There were 1814 deaths during a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years (282,323.7 person-years of follow-up evaluation). Persons positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) had significantly (P < .01) higher adjusted hazard ratios for all causes of mortality (1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-1.9), liver cancer mortality (22.4; 95% CI, 15.2-32.9), and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis mortality (5.4; 95% CI, 3.5-8.4). When compared with HBsAg-negative persons, hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected persons with HBV DNA levels less than 10(4) had a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality (4.4; 95% CI, 2.4-8.2). In HBsAg-positive persons, the mortality rate increased with cohort entry serum HBV DNA level. Liver cancer mortality ranged from 72.8 per 100,000 person-years for subjects with HBV DNA levels less than 300 copies/mL to 815.6 per 100,000 person-years for those with HBV DNA levels of 1 million copies/mL or greater. Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis deaths ranged from 9.1 to 267.4 per 100,000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic HBV infection is associated with significant preventable excess mortality risk. This mortality risk is correlated strongly with the level of viral replication among other factors.

Past HBV viral load as predictor of mortality and morbidity from HCC and chronic liver disease in a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In a prospective cohort study with 11 yr of follow-up, we assessed the relationship between past hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load and mortality. Surviving cohort members were evaluated for current liver disease. METHODS: We measured HBV viral load by real-time polymerase chain reaction on stored samples from cohort entry (1992-1993) in 2,763 hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive adults. Major end points were death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or chronic liver disease (CLD). There were 447 deaths. In the 1,683 survivors, we assessed severity of liver disease on a return visit in 2003. Viral load was divided into three categories: undetected (<1.6 x 10(3) copies/mL); low titer (<10(5) copies/mL); and high titer (> or =10(5) copies/mL). RESULTS: For HCC, there was a significant increase in mortality across viral load categories (p(trend) < 0.001). Compared to the HBV undetected category, the relative risk (RR) for HCC mortality in the low viral load group was 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-5.7) and 11.2 (3.6-35.0) in the high viral load group. For CLD mortality, the RRs were 1.5 (0.2-12.1) and 15.2 (2.1-109.8), respectively (p(trend) < 0.001). The RR associated with high viral load did not change with increased follow-up time. In surviving cohort members evaluated for liver disease in 2003, there was also a significant association of viral load with disease severity. CONCLUSION: In this prospective study, viral load is associated with increased mortality from HCC and CLD in HBV-infected subjects. Viral load may be a useful prognostic tool in HBV infection, and interventions aimed at its reduction should be explored.

Predicting cirrhosis risk based on the level of circulating hepatitis B viral load.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis develops as a result of hepatic inflammation and subsequent fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B infection. We report on the relationship between hepatitis B viremia and progression to cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B infection. METHODS: This was a population-based prospective cohort study of 3582 untreated hepatitis B-infected patients established in Taiwan from 1991 to 1992. Serum samples were tested for HBV DNA on cohort entry serum samples and the diagnosis of cirrhosis was by ultrasound. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 11 years, the 3582 patients contributed 40,038 person-years of follow-up evaluation and 365 patients were newly diagnosed with cirrhosis. The cumulative incidence of cirrhosis increased with the HBV-DNA level and ranged from 4.5% to 36.2% for patients with a hepatitis B viral load of less than 300 copies/mL and 10(6) copies/mL or more, respectively (P < .001). In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for hepatitis B e-antigen status and serum alanine transaminase level among other variables, hepatitis B viral load was the strongest predictor of progression to cirrhosis relative risk [95% confidence interval] was 2.5 [1.6-3.8]; 5.6 [3.7-8.5]; and 6.5 [4.1-10.2] for HBV-DNA levels >/=10(4) - <10(5); >/=10(5) - <10(6); >/=10(6) copies/mL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that progression to cirrhosis in hepatitis B-infected persons is correlated strongly with the level of circulating virus. The risk for cirrhosis increases significantly with increasing HBV-DNA levels and is independent of hepatitis B e-antigen status and serum alanine transaminase level.