Is the diet cyclic phase-dependent in boreal vole populations?

Herbivorous rodents in boreal, alpine and arctic ecosystems are renowned for their multi-annual population cycles. Researchers have hypothesised that these cycles may result from herbivore-plant interactions in various ways. For instance, if the biomass of preferred food plants is reduced after a peak phase of a cycle, rodent diets can be expected to become dominated by less preferred food plants, leading the population to a crash. It could also be expected that the taxonomic diversity of rodent diets increases from the peak to the crash phase of a cycle. The present study is the first to use DNA metabarcoding to quantify the diets of two functionally important boreal rodent species (bank vole and tundra vole) to assess whether their diet changed systematically in the expected cyclic phase-dependent manner. We found the taxonomic diet spectrum broad in both vole species but with little interspecific overlap. There was no evidence of systematic shifts in diet diversity metrics between the phases of the population cycle in either species. While both species' diet composition changed moderately between cycle phases and seasons, these changes were small compared to other sources of diet variation-especially differences between individuals. Thus, the variation in diet that could be attributed to cyclic phases is marginal relative to the overall diet flexibility. Based on general consumer-resource theory, we suggest that the broad diets with little interspecific overlap render it unlikely that herbivore-plant interactions generate their synchronous population cycles. We propose that determining dietary niche width should be the first step in scientific inquiries about the role of herbivore-plant interactions in cyclic vole populations.

Predator co-occurrence in alpine and Arctic tundra in relation to fluctuating prey.

Large carnivores influence ecosystem dynamics in multiple ways, for example, by suppressing meso-carnivores and providing carrions for smaller scavengers. Loss of large carnivores is suggested to cause meso-carnivore increase and expansion. Moreover, competition between meso-carnivores may be modified by the presence of larger carnivores. In tundra ecosystems, the smallest meso-carnivore, the Arctic fox, has experienced regional declines, whereas its larger and competitively superior congener, the red fox, has increased, potentially due to changes in the abundance of apex predators. We explored if variation in the occurrence of wolverine and golden eagle impacted the occurrence and co-occurrence of the Arctic fox and red fox in relation to varying abundances of small rodents within the Scandinavian tundra. We applied multi-species occupancy models to an extensive wildlife camera dataset from 2011-2020 covering 98 sites. Daily detection/non-detection of each species per camera trap site and study period (late winter; March-May) was stacked across years, and species occupancy was related to small rodent abundance while accounting for time of the year and status of simulated carcass. The Arctic fox was more likely to co-occur with the red fox when the wolverine was present and less likely to co-occur with the red fox when golden eagles were present and the wolverine was absent. Red foxes increased in occupancy when co-occurring with the larger predators. The Arctic fox responded more strongly to small rodent abundance than the red fox and co-occurred more often with the other species at carcasses when rodent abundance was low. Our findings suggest that the interspecific interactions within this tundra predator guild appear to be surprisingly intricate, driven by facets of fear of predation, interspecific mediation and facilitation, and food resource dynamics. These dynamics of intraguild interactions may dictate where and when conservation actions targeted towards the Arctic fox should be implemented.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrid outbreaks.

We highlight recent developments and avenues for advancement, which can improve insight into the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (hereafter 'geometrids'). Some forest geometrids possess fundamental biological traits, which make them particularly liable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts mitigated by climate change. Indeed, recently observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics represent both new research opportunities and challenges for empirically testing drivers of intra- and interspecific spatial synchrony, including the role of trophic interactions and biological traits (e.g. dispersal ability). We advocate that the emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting holds promise for studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrids and could be tailored to give both accurate predictions at management-relevant timescales and new insights into the mechanisms that underlie spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony.

Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention. Here, we present a widely applicable analytical protocol that allows us to account for both season and geographic context-specific density dependence to better elucidate the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic sources of population synchrony, including the renowned Moran effect. We exemplify our protocol by analyzing time series of seasonal (spring and fall) abundance estimates of cyclic rodent populations, revealing that season-specific density dependence is a major component of population synchrony. By accounting for deterministic sources of synchrony (in particular season-specific density dependence), we are able to identify stochastic components. These stochastic components include mild winter weather events, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate warming in boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Interestingly, these weather effects act both directly and delayed on the vole populations, thus enhancing the Moran effect. Our study demonstrates how different drivers of population synchrony, presently altered by climate warming, can be disentangled based on seasonally sampled population time-series data and adequate population models.

Climate variability and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple High Arctic ecosystem.

Ecologists are still puzzled by the diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals that range from high-amplitude, multiannual cycles to stable dynamics. Theory predicts that this diversity results from combinations of climatic seasonality, weather stochasticity, and density-dependent food web interactions. The almost ubiquitous 3- to 5-y cycles in boreal and arctic climates may theoretically result from bottom-up (plant-herbivore) and top-down (predator-prey) interactions. Assessing, empirically, the roles of such interactions and how they are influenced by environmental stochasticity has been hampered by food web complexity. Here, we take advantage of a uniquely simple High Arctic food web, which allowed us to analyze the dynamics of a graminivorous vole population not subjected to top-down regulation. This population exhibited high-amplitude, noncyclic fluctuations-partly driven by weather stochasticity. However, the predominant driver of the dynamics was overcompensatory density dependence in winter that caused the population to frequently crash. Model simulations showed that the seasonal pattern of density dependence would yield regular 2-y cycles in the absence of stochasticity. While such short cycles have not yet been observed in mammals, they are theoretically plausible if graminivorous vole populations are deterministically bottom-up regulated. When incorporating weather stochasticity in the model simulations, cyclicity became disrupted and the amplitude was increased-akin to the observed dynamics. Our findings contrast with the 3- to 5-y population cycles that are typical of graminivorous small mammals in more complex food webs, suggesting that top-down regulation is normally an important component of such dynamics.

Issues of under-representation in quantitative DNA metabarcoding weaken the inference about diet of the tundra vole Microtus oeconomus.

During the last decade, methods based on high-throughput sequencing such as DNA metabarcoding have opened up for a range of new questions in animal dietary studies. One of the major advantages of dietary metabarcoding resides in the potential to infer a quantitative relationship between sequence read proportions and biomass of ingested food. However, this relationship's robustness is highly dependent on the system under study, calling for case-specific assessments. Herbivorous small rodents often play important roles in the ecosystem, and the use of DNA metabarcoding for analyses of rodent diets is increasing. However, there has been no direct validation of the quantitative reliability of DNA metabarcoding for small rodents. Therefore, we used an experimental approach to assess the relationship between input plant biomass and sequence reads proportions from DNA metabarcoding in the tundra vole Microtus oeconomus. We found a weakly positive relationship between the number of high-throughput DNA sequences and the expected biomass proportions of food plants. The weak relationship was possibly caused by a systematic under-amplification of one of the three plant taxa fed. Generally, our results add to the growing evidence that case-specific validation studies are required to reliably make use of sequence read abundance as a proxy of relative food proportions in the diet.

Effect of scavenging on predation in a food web.

Scavenging can have important consequences for food web dynamics, for example, it may support additional consumer species and affect predation on live prey. Still, few food web models include scavenging. We develop a dynamic model that includes two facultative scavenger species, which we refer to as the predator or scavenger species according to their natural scavenging propensity, as well as live prey, and a carrion pool to show ramifications of scavenging for predation in simple food webs. Our modeling suggests that the presence of scavengers can both increase and decrease predator kill rates and overall predation in model food webs and the impact varies (in magnitude and direction) with context. In particular, we explore the impact of the amount of dynamics (exploitative competition) allowed in the predator, scavenger, and prey populations as well as the direction and magnitude of interference competition between predators and scavengers. One fundamental prediction is that scavengers most likely increase predator kill rates, especially if there are exploitative feedback effects on the prey or carrion resources like is normally observed in natural systems. Scavengers only have minimal effects on predator kill rate when predator, scavenger, and prey abundances are kept constant by management. In such controlled systems, interference competition can greatly affect the interactions in contrast to more natural systems, with an increase in interference competition leading to a decrease in predator kill rate. Our study adds to studies that show that the presence of predators affects scavenger behavior, vital rates, and food web structure, by showing that scavengers impact predator kill rates through multiple mechanisms, and therefore indicating that scavenging and predation patterns are tightly intertwined. We provide a road map to the different theoretical outcomes and their support from different empirical studies on vertebrate guilds to provide guidance in wildlife management.

Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture-recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.We designed a capture-recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long-term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability.Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple-year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long-living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change.

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point transect distance sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: (1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and (2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved nonlinearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers.

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction.

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends.

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3-6 years and long 9-12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

Dietary variation in Icelandic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) over a period of 30 years assessed through stable isotopes.

Identifying resources driving long-term trends in predators is important to understand ecosystem changes and to manage populations in the context of conservation or control. The arctic fox population in Iceland has increased steadily over a period of 30 years, an increase that has been attributed to an overall increase in food abundance. We hypothesized that increasing populations of geese or seabirds were driving this growth. We analyzed stable isotopes in a long-term series of collagen samples to determine the role of these different resources. The isotopic signatures of arctic foxes differed consistently between coastal and inland habitats. While δ15N displayed a non-linear change over time with a slight increase in the first part of the period followed by a decline in both habitats, δ13C was stable. Stable isotope mixing models suggested that marine resources and rock ptarmigan were the most important dietary sources, with marine resources dominating in coastal habitats and rock ptarmigan being more important inland. Our results suggest that seabirds may have been driving the arctic fox population increase. The rapidly increasing populations of breeding geese seem to have played a minor role in arctic fox population growth, as rock ptarmigan was the most important terrestrial resource despite a considerable decrease in their abundance during recent decades. This study shows that a long-term population trend in a generalist predator may have occurred without a pronounced change in main dietary resources, despite ongoing structural changes in the food web, where one species of herbivorous birds increased and another decreased.

Rodent population cycle as a determinant of gastrointestinal nematode abundance in a low-arctic population of the red fox.

We analyzed an 11-year time series (2005-2015) of parasite abundance for three intestinal nematode species in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) as a function of the multi-annual rodent population cycle in low-arctic Norway, while correcting for other potential covariates that could influence prevalence and abundance. Rodents are paratenic and facultative intermediate hosts for the two Ascarididae species Toxascaris leonina and Toxocara canis, respectively and key prey for the red fox. Still the relative importance of indirect transmission through rodents and direct transmission through free-living stages is unclear. Abundance of these Ascarididae species in individual red foxes (N = 612) exhibited strongly cyclic dynamics that closely mirrored the 4-year rodent cycle. Negative binomial models provided evidence for a direct proportional increase in Ascarididae abundance with rodent density suggesting that predator functional response to rodent prey is the key transmission mechanism. In contrast, no cycles and constantly very low abundance were apparent for Uncinaria stenocephala - a third nematode species recorded without paratenic or intermediate stages.

Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.

Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.

Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant-rodent relationships is poor.

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.e., peak-phase abundances) has been hypothesized to be determined by vegetation properties in tundra ecosystems. We assessed the spatial and temporal predictability of food and shelter plants effects on peak-phase small rodent abundance during two consecutive rodent population peaks. Rodent abundance was related to both food and shelter biomass during the first peak, and spatial transferability was mostly good. Yet, the temporal transferability of our models to the next population peak was poorer. Plant-rodent interactions are thus temporally variable and likely more complex than simple one-directional (bottom-up) relationships or variably overruled by other biotic interactions and abiotic factors. We propose that parametrizing a more complete set of functional links within food webs across abiotic and biotic contexts would improve transferability of biotic interaction models. Such attempts are currently constrained by the lack of data with replicated estimates of key players in food webs. Enhanced collaboration between researchers whose main research interests lay in different parts of the food web could ameliorate this.

Habitats and movement patterns of white whales Delphinapterus leucas in Svalbard, Norway in a changing climate.

BACKGROUND: The Arctic is experiencing rapid reductions in sea ice and in some areas tidal glaciers are melting and retracting onto land. These changes are occurring at extremely rapid rates in the Northeast Atlantic Arctic. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of these environmental changes on space use by white whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in Svalbard, Norway. Using a unique biotelemetry data set involving 34 animals, spanning two decades, habitat use and movement patterns were compared before (1995-2001) and after (2013-2016) a dramatic change in the regional sea ice regime that began in 2006. RESULTS: White whales were extremely coastal in both study periods, remaining near the islands within the Svalbard Archipelago, even when winter sea ice formation pushed them offshore somewhat (later in the year in the recent period), into areas with drifting sea ice (concentrations up to 90%). In both periods, the whales followed the same basic patterns seasonally; they occupied the west coast in summer and shifted to the east coast as winter approached. However, space use did change between the two periods, with the whales spending less time close to tidal glacier fronts in the second period compared to the first (2nd-36% vs 1st-51%), a habitat characterized by low swimming speeds and high turning angles, and more time out in the fjords (2nd-26% vs1st-10%). Use of coastal transit corridors remained the same in both periods; the whales appear to minimize time spent moving between fjords. CONCLUSIONS: Glacier fronts have previously been shown to be important foraging areas for white whales in Svalbard and the movement metrics documented in this study confirms that this is still the case. However, use of the Fjords habitat in summer and fall (frequency of occupancy and movement metrics) seen in the recent period suggests that the white whales might now also be feeding on Atlantic prey that is increasingly common in the fjords, concomitant with influxes of Atlantic Water along the west coast of Svalbard. Such behavioural flexibility, if confirmed by further diet studies, would likely be important for white whales in adapting to new conditions in Svalbard.

Rangifer management controls a climate-sensitive tundra state transition.

Rangifer (caribou/reindeer) management has been suggested to mitigate the temperature-driven transition of Arctic tundra into a shrubland state, yet how this happens is uncertain. Here we study this much focused ecosystem state transition in riparian areas, where palatable willows (Salix) are dominant tall shrubs and highly responsive to climate change. For the state transition to take place, small life stages must become tall and abundant. Therefore we predicted that the performance of small life stages (potential recruits) of the tall shrubs were instrumental to the focal transition, where Rangifer managed at high population density would keep the small-stage shrubs in a "browse trap" independent of summer temperature. We used a large-scale quasi-experimental study design that included real management units that spanned a wide range of Rangifer population densities and summer temperatures in order to assess the relative importance of these two driving variables. Ground surveys provided data on density and height of the small shrub life stages, while the distributional limit (shrubline) of established shrublands (the tall shrub life stage) was derived from aerial photographs. Where Rangifer densities were above a threshold of approximately 5 animals/km2 , we found, in accordance with the expectation of a "browse trap," that the small life stages of shrubs in grasslands were at low height and low abundance. At Rangifer densities below this threshold, the small life stages of shrubs were taller and more abundant indicating Rangifer were no longer in control of the grassland state. For the established shrubland state, we found that the shrubline was at a 100-m lower elevation in the management units where Rangifer had been browsing in summer as opposed to the migratory ranges with no browsing in summer. In both seasonal ranges, the shrubline increased 100 m per 1°C increment in temperature. Our study supports the proposal that Rangifer management within a sustainable range of animal densities can mitigate the much-focused transition from grassland to shrubland in a warming Arctic.

An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.

Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological interactions are likely to become more widespread in many ecosystems as both predators and prey respond to changing environmental conditions induced by global warming, highlighting the importance of multi-species studies.