Reviewing the epidemiology of head and neck cancer: definitions, trends and risk factors.

Introduction Head and neck cancer appears to be increasing in incidence, with potential changes in aetiology proposed. This paper aims to provide a narrative overview of the epidemiological literature to describe the disease burden and trends in terms of incidence and mortality both in the UK and globally and to review the evidence on current risk factors.Methods A search was performed on multiple databases (PubMed and Epistemonikos), applying filters to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses which investigated head and neck cancer incidence, mortality and risk factors. International and UK cancer registries and sources were searched for incidence and mortality data.Results Multiple definitions of head and neck cancer are employed in epidemiology. Globally, incidence rates have increased in recent decades, largely driven by oropharyngeal cancer. Mortality rates over the last decade have also started to rise, reflecting the disease incidence and static survival rates. Major risk factors include tobacco smoking alone and in combination with alcohol consumption, betel chewing (particularly in Southeast Asian populations) and the human papillomavirus in oropharyngeal cancer.Conclusions These epidemiological data can inform clinical and preventive service planning for head and neck cancer.

Fulvestrant plus capivasertib versus placebo after relapse or progression on an aromatase inhibitor in metastatic, oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer (FAKTION): overall survival, updated progression-free survival, and expanded biomarker analysis from a randomised, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Capivasertib, an AKT inhibitor, added to fulvestrant, was previously reported to improve progression-free survival in women with aromatase inhibitor-resistant oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. The benefit appeared to be independent of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT/phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) pathway alteration status of tumours, as ascertained using assays available at the time. Here, we report updated progression-free survival and overall survival results, and a prespecified examination of the effect of PI3K/AKT/PTEN pathway alterations identified by an expanded genetic testing panel on treatment outcomes. METHODS: This randomised, multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial recruited postmenopausal adult women aged at least 18 years with ER-positive, HER2-negative, metastatic or locally advanced inoperable breast cancer and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, who had relapsed or progressed on an aromatase inhibitor, from across 19 hospitals in the UK. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intramuscular fulvestrant 500 mg (day 1) every 28 days (plus a 500 mg loading dose on day 15 of cycle 1) with either capivasertib 400 mg or matching placebo, orally twice daily on an intermittent weekly schedule of 4 days on and 3 days off, starting on cycle 1 day 15. Treatment continued until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, loss to follow-up, or withdrawal of consent. Treatment was allocated by an interactive web-response system using a minimisation method (with a 20% random element) and the following minimisation factors: measurable or non-measurable disease, primary or secondary aromatase inhibitor resistance, PIK3CA status, and PTEN status. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary endpoints shown in this Article were overall survival and safety in the intention-to-treat population, and the effect of tumour PI3K/AKT/PTEN pathway status identified by an expanded testing panel that included next-generation sequencing assays. Recruitment is complete. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01992952. FINDINGS: Between March 16, 2015, and March 6, 2018, 183 participants were screened for eligibility and 140 (77%) were randomly assigned to receive fulvestrant plus capivasertib (n=69) or fulvestrant plus placebo (n=71). Median follow-up at the data cut-off of Nov 25, 2021, was 58·5 months (IQR 45·9-64·1) for participants treated with fulvestrant plus capivasertib and 62·3 months (IQR 62·1-70·3) for fulvestrant plus placebo. Updated median progression-free survival was 10·3 months (95% CI 5·0-13·4) in the group receiving fulvestrant plus capivasertib compared with 4·8 months (3·1-7·9) for fulvestrant plus placebo (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·56 [95% CI 0·38-0·81]; two-sided p=0·0023). Median overall survival in the capivasertib versus placebo groups was 29·3 months (95% CI 23·7-39·0) versus 23·4 months (18·7-32·7; adjusted HR 0·66 [95% CI 0·45-0·97]; two-sided p=0·035). The expanded biomarker panel identified an expanded pathway-altered subgroup that contained 76 participants (54% of the intention-to-treat population). Median progression-free survival in the expanded pathway-altered subgroup for participants receiving capivasertib (n=39) was 12·8 months (95% CI 6·6-18·8) compared with 4·6 months (2·8-7·9) in the placebo group (n=37; adjusted HR 0·44 [95% CI 0·26-0·72]; two-sided p=0·0014). Median overall survival for the expanded pathway-altered subgroup receiving capivasertib was 38·9 months (95% CI 23·3-50·7) compared with 20·0 months (14·8-31·4) for those receiving placebo (adjusted HR 0·46 [95% CI 0·27-0·79]; two-sided p=0·0047). By contrast, there were no statistically significant differences in progression-free or overall survival in the expanded pathway non-altered subgroup treated with capivasertib (n=30) versus placebo (n=34). One additional serious adverse event (pneumonia) in the capivasertib group had occurred subsequent to the primary analysis. One death, due to atypical pulmonary infection, was assessed as possibly related to capivasertib treatment. INTERPRETATION: Updated FAKTION data showed that capivasertib addition to fulvestrant extends the survival of participants with aromatase inhibitor-resistant ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. The expanded biomarker testing suggested that capivasertib predominantly benefits patients with PI3K/AKT/PTEN pathway-altered tumours. Phase 3 data are needed to substantiate the results, including in patients with previous CDK4/6 inhibitor exposure who were not included in the FAKTION trial. FUNDING: AstraZeneca and Cancer Research UK.

The READ-IT study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial of using a support worker/family carer mediated online reading programme to teach early reading skills to adults with intellectual disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have not learnt basic reading skills by the time that they reach adulthood, potentially limiting their access to critical information. READ-IT is an online reading programme developed from the Headsprout® Early Reading (HER®) intervention and supplemented by support strategies tailored for adults with ID. HER® has been successfully used to teach adults with ID to read in a forensic setting by trained staff. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of delivering READ-IT to adults with ID by family carers/support workers and will assess whether it would be feasible to conduct a later definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the effectiveness of the programme. The study will aim to contribute to the evidence base on improving outcomes for adults with ID and their caregivers. METHODS: This study is a feasibility RCT, with embedded process evaluation. Forty-eight adults with ID will be recruited and allocated to intervention: control on a 1:1 basis. Intervention families will be offered the READ-IT programme immediately, continuing to receive usual practice and control participants will be offered the opportunity to receive READ-IT at the end of the trial follow-up period and will continue to receive usual practice. Data will be collected at baseline and 6 months post-randomisation. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will inform a potential future definitive trial, to evaluate the effectiveness of READ-IT to improve reading skills. Such a trial would have significant scientific impact internationally in the intellectual disability field. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11409097.

Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. RESULTS: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069). CONCLUSION: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

Inequality in survival of people with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000 cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Explanations for socioeconomic inequalities in survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients have had limited attention and are not well understood. METHODS: The UK Head and Neck 5000 prospective clinical cohort study was analyzed. Survival relating to measures of socioeconomic status was explored including area-based and individual factors. Three-year overall survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. All-cause mortality was investigated via adjusted Cox Proportional Hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 3440 people were included. Three-year overall survival was 76.3% (95% CI 74.9, 77.7). Inequality in survival by deprivation category, highest education level, and financial concerns was explained by age, sex, health, and behavioral factors. None of the potential explanatory factors fully explained the inequality associated with annual household income or the proportion of income of benefits. CONCLUSION: These results support the interventions to address the financial issues within the wider care and support provided to HNC patients.

Identifying epigenetic biomarkers of established prognostic factors and survival in a clinical cohort of individuals with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Smoking status, alcohol consumption and HPV infection (acquired through sexual activity) are the predominant risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and are thought to alter the prognosis of the disease. Here, we conducted single-site and differentially methylated region (DMR) epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of these factors, in addition to ∼ 3-year survival, using Illumina Methylation EPIC DNA methylation profiles from whole blood in 409 individuals as part of the Head and Neck 5000 (HN5000) study. Overlapping sites between each factor and survival were then assessed using two-step Mendelian randomization to assess whether methylation at these positions causally affected survival. RESULTS: Using the MethylationEPIC array in an OPC dataset, we found novel CpG associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and ~ 3-year survival. We found no CpG associations below our multiple testing threshold associated with HPV16 E6 serological response (used as a proxy for HPV infection). CpG site associations below our multiple-testing threshold (PBonferroni < 0.05) for both a prognostic factor and survival were observed at four gene regions: SPEG (smoking), GFI1 (smoking), PPT2 (smoking) and KHDC3L (alcohol consumption). Evidence for a causal effect of DNA methylation on survival was only observed in the SPEG gene region (HR per SD increase in methylation score 1.28, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.43, P 2.12 × 10-05). CONCLUSIONS: Part of the effect of smoking on survival in those with oropharyngeal cancer may be mediated by methylation at the SPEG gene locus. Replication in data from independent datasets and data from HN5000 with longer follow-up times is needed to confirm these findings.

HPV driven squamous cell head and neck cancer of unknown primary is likely to be HPV driven squamous cell oropharyngeal cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To compare risk factors and survival in people with oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and cancer unknown primary (CUP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We recruited 5511 people with head and neck cancer between 2011 and 2014. We collected data on age, gender, smoking, sexual behaviour, treatment intent, stage, co-morbidity, p16 protein overexpression and biological samples. We assessed human papillomavirus (HPV) status using serological response and p16 immunohistochemistry. We followed up participants to identify those who had died. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate survival and adjust for confounders. RESULTS: Of the 4843 people with squamous cell cancer 196 had CUP - a prevalence of 4.0% (95% CI 3.5% to 4.6%). Of those people with OPC and CUP 69% (1150/1668) and 60% (106/178) respectively had HPV driven tumours. People with HPV driven tumours were likely to be younger, male, non-smokers, with higher stage disease, a history of oral sex and less co-morbidity. People with HPV negative CUP and HPV driven CUP had the survival of people with a stage II/III HPV negative OPC and a stage I/II HPV driven OPC respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for HPV driven OPC and CUP compared with HPV negative OPC and CUP was 0.46 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.59) and 0.34 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.82) respectively. CONCLUSION: HPV driven CUP is likely to be HPV driven OPC. Identifying effective methods of detecting occult OPC could improve CUP management and allow the detection of early lesions in high risk groups.

Epigenetic prediction of complex traits and mortality in a cohort of individuals with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm) variation is an established predictor for several traits. In the context of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), where 5-year survival is ~ 65%, DNA methylation may act as a prognostic biomarker. We examined the accuracy of DNA methylation biomarkers of 4 complex exposure traits (alcohol consumption, body mass index [BMI], educational attainment and smoking status) in predicting all-cause mortality in people with OPC. RESULTS: DNAm predictors of alcohol consumption, BMI, educational attainment and smoking status were applied to 364 individuals with OPC in the Head and Neck 5000 cohort (HN5000; 19.6% of total OPC cases in the study), followed up for median 3.9 years; inter-quartile range (IQR) 3.3 to 5.2 years (time-to-event-death or censor). The proportion of phenotypic variance explained in each trait was as follows: 16.5% for alcohol consumption, 22.7% for BMI, 0.4% for educational attainment and 51.1% for smoking. We then assessed the relationship between each DNAm predictor and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis. DNAm prediction of smoking was most consistently associated with mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.38 per standard deviation (SD) increase in smoking DNAm score; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04 to 1.83; P 0.025, in a model adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, health and biological variables). Finally, we examined the accuracy of each DNAm predictor of mortality. DNAm predictors explained similar levels of variance in mortality to self-reported phenotypes. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the DNAm predictors showed a moderate discrimination of alcohol consumption (area under the curve [AUC] 0.63), BMI (AUC 0.61) and smoking (AUC 0.70) when predicting mortality. The DNAm predictor for education showed poor discrimination (AUC 0.57). Z tests comparing AUCs between self-reported phenotype ROC curves and DNAm score ROC curves did not show evidence for difference between the two (alcohol consumption P 0.41, BMI P 0.62, educational attainment P 0.49, smoking P 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of a clinical cohort of individuals with OPC, DNAm predictors for smoking, alcohol consumption, educational attainment and BMI exhibit similar predictive values for all-cause mortality compared to self-reported data. These findings may have translational utility in prognostic model development, particularly where phenotypic data are not available.

Epstein-Barr virus and human papillomavirus serum antibodies define the viral status of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a low endemic country.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) causes nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in endemic regions, where almost every tumor is EBV-positive. In Western populations, NPC is rare, and human papillomavirus infection (HPV) has been suggested as another viral cause. We validated multiplex serology with molecular tumor markers, to define EBV-positive, HPV-positive and EBV-/HPV-negative NPCs in the United Kingdom, and analyzed survival differences between those groups. Sera from NPC cases (n = 98) and age- and sex-matched controls (n = 142) from the Head and Neck 5000 clinical cohort study were analyzed. IgA and IgG serum antibodies against 13 EBV antigens were measured and compared with EBER in situ hybridization (EBER-ISH) data of 41 NPC tumors (29 EBER-ISH positive, 12 negative). IgG antibodies to EBV LF2 correctly diagnosed EBV-positive NPCs in 28 of 29 cases, while all EBER-ISH negative NPCs were seronegative to LF2 IgG (specificity = 100%, sensitivity = 97%). HPV early antigen serology was compared to HPV molecular markers (p16 expression, HPV DNA and RNA) available for 41 NPCs (13 positive, 28 negative). Serology matched molecular HPV markers in all but one case (specificity = 100%, sensitivity = 92%). EBV and HPV infections were mutually exclusive. Overall, 67% of the analyzed NPCs were defined as EBV-positive, 18% as HPV-positive and 14% as EBV/HPV-negative. There was no statistical evidence of a difference in survival between the three groups. These data provide evidence that both, EBV-positive and HPV-positive NPCs are present in a low incidence country, and that EBV and HPV serum antibodies correlate with the viral status of the tumor.

Patient-reported swallowing function after treatment for early-stage oropharyngeal carcinoma: Population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Single-modality treatment (surgery or radiotherapy [RT]) is a curative treatment option for early-stage oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) with comparable (excellent) oncological outcomes. This study aimed to compare self-reported swallowing function. METHODS: Participants with a T1-2N0-2bM0 OPC who were offered single-modality treatment and were recruited to the Head and Neck 5000 study were included. Prospectively collected self-reported swallowing function was compared between surgery and RT. RESULTS: Those offered RT (n = 150) had less favorable baseline characteristics than those offered surgery (n = 150). At 12-month follow up, RT participants reported more swallowing problems (35% vs 23%, RR 1.3; 95% CI 0.8-2.3, P = .277) in models adjusted for baseline characteristics. In those allocated to surgery who received adjuvant therapy (n = 78, 52%), the proportion with swallowing problems was similar to those allocated to RT alone. CONCLUSIONS: Participants offered surgery alone had similar mortality but improved swallowing, although this was not statistically significant. However, over half of participants offered surgery alone received surgery and adjuvant therapy.

Disease trajectories, place and mode of death in people with head and neck cancer: Findings from the 'Head and Neck 5000' population-based prospective clinical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Few large studies describe initial disease trajectories and subsequent mortality in people with head and neck cancer. This is a necessary first step to identify the need for palliative care and associated services. AIM: To analyse data from the Head and Neck 5000 study to present mortality, place and mode of death within 12 months of diagnosis. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 5402 people with a new diagnosis of head and neck cancer were recruited from 76 cancer centres in the United Kingdom between April 2011 and December 2014. RESULTS: Initially, 161/5402 (3%) and 5241/5402 (97%) of participants were treated with 'non-curative' and 'curative' intent, respectively. Within 12 months, 109/161 (68%) in the 'non-curative' group died compared with 482/5241 (9%) in the 'curative' group. Catastrophic bleed was the terminal event for 10.4% and 9.8% of people in 'non-curative' and 'curative' groups, respectively; terminal airway obstruction was recorded for 7.5% and 6.3% of people in the same corresponding groups. Similar proportions of people in both groups died in a hospice (22.9% 'non-curative'; 23.5% 'curative') and 45.7% of the 'curative' group died in hospital. CONCLUSION: In addition to those with incurable head and neck cancer, there is a small but significant 'curative' subgroup of people who may have palliative needs shortly following diagnosis. Given the high mortality, risk of acute catastrophic event and frequent hospital death, clarifying the level and timing of palliative care services engagement would help provide assurance as to whether palliative care needs are being met.

Squamous cell carcinoma of the nasal cavity: A descriptive analysis of cases from the head and neck 5000 study.

OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to provide contemporary epidemiological data on squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the nasal cavity, which represents a rare type of head and neck cancer. DESIGN, SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A descriptive analysis of people with nasal cavity SCC treated with curative intent from the Head and Neck 5000 study; a multicentre clinical cohort study of people from the UK with head and neck cancer. People with tumours of the nasopharynx, paranasal sinuses and other sub-sites of the head and neck were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic data and treatment details are presented for all participants. The main outcomes were overall survival and survival according to categories of characteristics (eg, smoker vs non-smoker); these were explored using Kaplan-Meier plots. RESULTS: Thirty people with nasal cavity SCC were included in the study, of which most were male (67%) and current or ex-smokers (70%). The majority (70%) presented with early-stage (T1/2, N0) tumours. Cervical lymph node metastases at presentation were rare, occurring in only one person. Nine people died during the follow-up period (30%). Worse survival outcomes were seen in people with moderate or severe co-morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides epidemiological data on nasal cavity SCC in the UK. Patterns of disease and survival outcomes are described, identifying high-risk groups. Further studies should explore whether primary treatment modality alters survival.

Determinants of long-term survival in a population-based cohort study of patients with head and neck cancer from Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We investigated long-term survival from head and neck cancer (HNC) using different survival approaches. METHODS: Patients were followed-up from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Net survival was calculated by the Pohar-Perme method. Mutually adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the predictors of survival. RESULTS: A total of 1820 patients were included in the analyses. Overall survival at 12 years was 26.3% (24.3%, 28.3%). Disease-specific survival at 12 years was 56.9% (54.3%, 59.4%). Net survival at 12 years was 41.4% (37.6%, 45.1%). CONCLUSION: Determinants associated with long-term survival included age, stage, treatment modality, WHO performance status, alcohol consumption, smoking behavior, and anatomical site. We recommend that net survival is used for long-term outcomes for HNC patients-it disentangles other causes of death, which are overestimated in overall survival and underestimated in disease-specific survival.

Inequality in the Survival of Patients With Head and Neck Cancer in Scotland.

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities impact on the survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients, but there is limited understanding of the explanations of the inequality, particularly in long-term survival. Methods: Patients were recruited from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer between 1999 and 2001 and were linked to mortality data as at 30th September 2013. Socioeconomic status was determined using the area-based Carstairs 2001 index. Overall and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method with 95% confidence intervals (CI's) at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Net survival at 1-, 5-, and 12-years was also computed with 95% CIs. Cox proportional hazard models with 95% CIs were used to determine the explanations for the inequality in survival by all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality with 95% CIs. Results: Most patients were from the most deprived group, and were more likely to smoke, drink, have cancer of a higher stage and have a lower WHO Performance Status. A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall and disease-specific survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for patients with HNC. Following the adjustment for multiple patient, tumor and treatment factors, the inequality in survival for patients with HNC had attenuated and was no longer statistically significant at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Conclusion: A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall, disease-specific and net survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for HNC patients in Scotland from 1999 to 2001. This study concludes that explanations for the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC are not straightforward, and that many factors including various patient, tumor and treatment factors play a part in the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC.