Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 13 de 13
Filtrar
1.
J Am Acad Orthop Surg ; 31(17): e619-e632, 2023 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37432977

RESUMO

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and effective management is necessary to improve clinical outcomes. Many long-standing therapies including early reduction and spinal cord decompression, methylprednisolone administration, and optimization of spinal cord perfusion have been around for decades; however, their efficacy has remained controversial because of limited high-quality data. This review article highlights studies surrounding the role of early surgical decompression and its role in relieving mechanical pressure on the microvascular circulation thereby reducing intraspinal pressure. Furthermore, the article touches on the current role of methylprednisolone and identifies promising studies evaluating neuroprotective and neuroregenerative agents. Finally, this article outlines the expanding body of literature evaluating mean arterial pressure goals, cerebrospinal fluid drainage, and expansive duroplasty to further optimize vascularization to the spinal cord. Overall, this review aims to highlight evidence for SCI treatments and ongoing trials that may markedly affect SCI care in the near future.


Assuntos
Traumatismos da Medula Espinal , Humanos , Traumatismos da Medula Espinal/cirurgia , Descompressão Cirúrgica , Metilprednisolona/uso terapêutico , Pressão , Medula Espinal/cirurgia
2.
World Neurosurg ; 2023 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37343675

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine if dexamethasone administration reduced narcotic consumption during hospitalization and to evaluate if patients who received dexamethasone refilled fewer opioid prescriptions postoperatively. METHODS: All adult patients who underwent primary elective 1- to 4-level anterior cervical discectomy and fusion at a single center were retrospectively identified. Prescription opioid use was collected from governmental online prescription drug monitoring programs, and in-hospital opioid use was collected from each patient's medication administration record and recorded as morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs). Patients were categorized by whether or not intravenous dexamethasone was administered perioperatively. Dexamethasone protocols were considered high dose if weight-based dosing was >0.20 mg/kg and low dose if <0.20 mg/kg. Multivariable linear regression was conducted to assess the relationship between dexamethasone administration and MMEs prescribed at each time point while accounting for confounders. RESULTS: Of 249 included patients, 167 (67%) were administered dexamethasone. Patients in both groups used a similar quantity of opioids while hospitalized (no dexamethasone: 56.7 MMEs/day vs. dexamethasone: 39.4 MMEs/day, P = 0.350). Patients in both groups refilled a similar quantity of opioids in all postoperative time periods: 0-3 weeks (3.38 vs. 4.07 MMEs/day, P = 0.528), 3-6 weeks (0.36 vs. 0.75 MMEs/day, P = 0.198), 6-12 weeks (0.53 vs. 0.75 MMEs/day, P = 0.900), and 3 months to 1 year (0.28 vs. 0.43 MMEs/day, P = 0.531). On multivariable linear regression, dexamethasone was not associated with a reduction in opioid volume at any time point (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Administration of perioperative dexamethasone does not reduce in-hospital or home opioid usage regardless of weight-based dose. Analgesia should not be the primary driver of dexamethasone administration for anterior cervical discectomy and fusion.

3.
World Neurosurg ; 175: e861-e875, 2023 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37075895

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: In a retrospective cohort study, we compared the outcomes among clinical and radiographic degenerative spondylolisthesis (CARDS) subtypes for patients undergoing posterior lumbar decompression and fusion (PLDF) or transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) and evaluated the CARDS system as a tool to guide clinical decisions regarding the treatment of degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS). METHODS: Patients undergoing PLDF or TLIF for DS from 2010 to 2020 were identified. The patients were grouped by the preoperative CARDS classification. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the effects of the treatment approach on the 1-year patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and 90-day surgical outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1056 patients were included: 148 patients with type A DS, 323 with type B, 525 with type C, and 60 with type D. Patients with CARDS types A and C who underwent PLDF experienced a longer length of stay and were less likely to be discharged home. No differences were found in the incidence of revisions, complications, or readmissions between the surgical approaches. Patients with CARDS type A undergoing PLDF were less likely to achieve a minimal clinically important difference for back pain (36.8% vs. 76.7%; P = 0.013). No other significant differences were found in the PROMs among the CARDS subtypes. TLIF independently predicted for better leg pain improvement using the visual analog scale at 1 year of follow-up (ß = -2.92; P = 0.017) for patients with CARDS type A. Multivariable analysis demonstrated no significant differences in PROMs by surgical approach among the other CARDS subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with disc space collapse and endplate apposition (CARDS type A) appear to benefit from TLIF. However, patients with lumbar spondylolisthesis without disc space collapse or kyphotic angulation (CARDS types B and C) showed no benefit from additional interbody placement.


Assuntos
Fusão Vertebral , Espondilolistese , Humanos , Espondilolistese/diagnóstico por imagem , Espondilolistese/cirurgia , Espondilolistese/complicações , Fusão Vertebral/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Vértebras Lombares/diagnóstico por imagem , Vértebras Lombares/cirurgia , Dor nas Costas/etiologia , Descompressão , Resultado do Tratamento , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Minimamente Invasivos/efeitos adversos
4.
J Am Acad Orthop Surg ; 31(20): e890-e897, 2023 10 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36727887

RESUMO

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) assign objective measures to patient's subjective experiences of health, pain, disability, function, and quality of life. PROMs can be useful for providers in shared decision making, outcome assessment, and indicating patients for surgery. In this article, we provide an overview of the legacy PROMs used in spinal care, recent advancements in patient-reported outcomes, and future directions in PROMs. Recent advances in patient-reported outcome assessments have included standardization of measurement tools, integration of data collection into workflow, and applications of outcome measures in predictive models and decision-making tools. Continual appraisal of instruments and incorporation into artificial intelligence and machine learning analytics will continue to augment the delivery of high-value spinal care.


Assuntos
Inteligência Artificial , Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Coluna Vertebral , Medidas de Resultados Relatados pelo Paciente , Avaliação de Resultados da Assistência ao Paciente
5.
J Am Acad Orthop Surg ; 31(8): e435-e444, 2023 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36689642

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the relationship between spinal fusion and its effects on relative spinopelvic alignment in patients with prior total hip arthroplasty (THA) is critical. However, limited data exist on the effects of long spinal fusions on hip alignment in patients with a prior THA. Our objective was to compare clinical outcomes and changes in hip alignment between patients undergoing long fusion to the sacrum versus to the pelvis in the setting of prior THA. METHODS: Patients with a prior THA who underwent elective thoracolumbar spinal fusion starting at L2 or above were retrospectively identified. Patients were placed into one of two groups: fusion to the sacrum or pelvis. Preoperative, six-month postoperative, one-year postoperative, and delta spinopelvic and acetabular measurements were measured from standing lumbar radiographs. RESULTS: A total of 112 patients (55 sacral fusions, 57 pelvic fusions) were included. Patients who underwent fusion to the pelvis experienced longer length of stay (LOS) (8.31 vs. 4.21, P < 0.001) and less frequent home discharges (30.8% vs. 61.9%, P = 0.010), but fewer spinal revisions (12.3% vs. 30.9%, P = 0.030). No difference was observed in hip dislocation rates (3.51% vs. 1.82%, P = 1.000) or hip revisions (5.26% vs. 3.64%, P = 1.000) based on fusion construct. Fusion to the sacrum alone was an independent predictor of an increased spine revision rate (odds ratio: 3.56, P = 0.023). Patients in the pelvic fusion group had lower baseline lumbar lordosis (LL) (29.2 vs. 42.9, P < 0.001), six-month postoperative LL (38.7 vs. 47.3, P = 0.038), and greater 1-year ∆ pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (-7.98 vs. 0.21, P = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Patients with prior THA undergoing long fusion to the pelvis experienced longer LOS, more surgical complications, and lower rate of spinal revisions. Patients with instrumentation to the pelvis had lower LL preoperatively with greater changes in LL and pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis postoperatively. No differences were observed in acetabular positioning, hip dislocations, or THA revision rates between groups.


Assuntos
Artroplastia de Quadril , Luxação do Quadril , Lordose , Fusão Vertebral , Humanos , Artroplastia de Quadril/efeitos adversos , Lordose/etiologia , Lordose/cirurgia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Vértebras Lombares/cirurgia , Luxação do Quadril/etiologia , Fusão Vertebral/efeitos adversos
6.
Neurosurg Focus ; 54(1): E7, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36587401

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate patient and surgical factors that predict increased overall lumbar lordosis (LL) and segmental lordosis correction following a minimally invasive lateral lumbar interbody fusion (LLIF) procedure. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted of all patients who underwent one- or two-level LLIF. Preoperative, initial postoperative, and 6-month postoperative measurements of LL, segmental lordosis, anterior disc height, and posterior disc height were collected from standing lateral radiographs for each patient. Cage placement was measured utilizing the center point ratio (CPR) on immediate postoperative radiographs. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between cage lordosis and radiographic parameters. Multivariate linear regression was performed to assess independent predictors of outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 106 levels in 78 unique patients were included. Most procedures involved fusion of one level (n = 50, 64.1%), most commonly L3-4 (46.2%). Despite no differences in baseline segmental lordosis, patients with anteriorly or centrally placed cages experienced the greatest segmental lordosis correction immediately (mean anterior 4.81° and central 4.46° vs posterior 2.47°, p = 0.0315) and at 6 months postoperatively, and patients with anteriorly placed cages had greater overall lordosis correction postoperatively (mean 6.30°, p = 0.0338). At the 6-month follow-up, patients with anteriorly placed cages experienced the greatest increase in anterior disc height (mean anterior 6.24 mm vs posterior 3.69 mm, p = 0.0122). Cages placed more posteriorly increased the change in posterior disc height postoperatively (mean posterior 4.91 mm vs anterior 1.80 mm, p = 0.0001) and at 6 months (mean posterior 4.18 mm vs anterior 2.06 mm, p = 0.0255). There were no correlations between cage lordotic angle and outcomes. On multivariate regression, anterior cage placement predicted greater 6-month improvement in segmental lordosis, while posterior placement predicted greater 6-month improvement in posterior disc height. Percutaneous screw placement, cage lordotic angle, and cage height did not independently predict any radiographic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: LLIF procedures reliably improve LL and increase intervertebral disc space. Anterior cage placement improves the lordosis angle greater than posterior placement, which better corrects sagittal alignment, but there is still a significant improvement in lordosis even with a posteriorly placed cage. Posterior cage placement provides greater restoration in posterior disc space height, maximizing indirect decompression, but even the anteriorly placed cages provided indirect decompression. Cage parameters including cage height, lordosis angle, and material do not impact radiographic improvement.


Assuntos
Lordose , Fusão Vertebral , Humanos , Lordose/diagnóstico por imagem , Lordose/cirurgia , Vértebras Lombares/diagnóstico por imagem , Vértebras Lombares/cirurgia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fusão Vertebral/métodos , Radiografia , Resultado do Tratamento
7.
J Am Acad Orthop Surg ; 31(3): 155-165, 2023 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36525566

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Demographic factors contribute markedly to orthopaedic surgery outcomes. However, women and minorities have been historically excluded from clinical trials. The United States passed the Safety and Innovation Act (Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act [FDA-SIA]) in 2012 to increase study diversity and mandate reporting of certain demographics. The purpose of this study was to investigate demographic reporting and analysis among high-risk orthopaedic medical device trials and evaluate the effectiveness of the FDA-SIA in increasing diversity of study enrollment. METHODS: The premarket approval database was queried for all original submissions approved by the Orthopedic Advisory Committee from January 1, 2003, to July 1, 2022. Study demographics were recorded. Weighted means of race, ethnicity, and sex were compared before and after FDA-SIA implementation with the US population. RESULTS: We identified 51 orthopaedic trials with unique study data. Most Food and Drug Administration device trials reported age (98.0%) and sex (96.1%), but only 49.0% and 37.3% reported race and ethnicity, respectively. Only 23 studies analyzed sex, six analyzed race, and two analyzed ethnicity. Compared with the US population, participants were overwhelmingly White (91.36% vs. 61.63%, P < 0.001) with a significant underrepresentation of Black (3.65% vs. 12.41%, P = 0.008), Asian (0.86% vs. 4.8%, P = 0.030), and Hispanic participants (3.02% vs. 18.73%, P < 0.001) before 2013. The FDA-SIA increased female patient enrollment (58.99% vs. 47.96%, P = 0.021) but did not increase the enrollment of racial or ethnic minorities. CONCLUSION: Despite efforts to increase the generalizability of studies within the FDA-SIA, orthopaedic medical devices still fail to enroll diverse populations and provide demographic subgroup analysis. The study populations within these trials do not represent the populations for whom these devices will be indicated in the community. The federal government must play a stronger role in mandating study diversity, enforcing appropriate statistical analysis of the demographic subgroups, and executing measures to ensure compliance. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Procedimentos Ortopédicos , Humanos , Feminino , Estados Unidos , United States Food and Drug Administration , Grupos Minoritários , Projetos de Pesquisa
8.
Spine J ; 23(5): 642-650, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36400397

RESUMO

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Demographic factors contribute significantly to spine surgery outcomes. Although race and ethnicity are not proxies for disease states, the intersection between these patient characteristics and socioeconomic status significantly impact patient outcomes. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to investigate the frequency of demographic reporting and analysis in randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) published in the three highest impact spine journals. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. PATIENT SAMPLE: We analyzed 278 randomized control trials published in The Spine Journal, Spine, and Journal of Neurosurgery: Spine between January 2012 - January 2022. OUTCOME MEASURES: Extracted manuscript characteristics included the frequency of demographic reporting, sample size, and demographic composition of studies. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of RCTs published between January 2012 - January 2022 in the three highest impact factor spine journals in 2021: The Spine Journal, Spine, and Journal of Neurosurgery: Spine. We determined if age, gender, BMI, race, and ethnicity were reported and analyzed for each study. The overall frequency of demographic reporting was assessed, and the reporting trends were analyzed for each individual year and journal. Among studies that did report demographics, the populations were analyzed in comparison to the national population per United States (US) census reports. Studies were evaluated for bias using Cochrane risk-of-bias. RESULTS: Our search identified 278 RCTs for inclusion. 166 were published in Spine, 65 in The Spine Journal, and 47 in Journal of Neurosurgery: Spine. Only 9.35% (N=26) and 3.9% (N=11) of studies reported race and ethnicity, respectively. Demographic reporting frequency did not vary based on the publishing journal. Reporting of age and BMI increased over time, but reporting of race and ethnicity did not. Among RCTs that reported race, 88% were conducted in the US, and 85.71% of the patients in these US studies were White. White subjects were overly represented compared to the US population (85.71% vs. 61.63%, p<.001), and non-White or Black patients were most underrepresented (2.89% vs. 25.96%, p<.001). CONCLUSIONS: RCTs published in the three highest impact factor spine journals failed to frequently report patient race or ethnicity. Among studies published in the US, study populations are increasingly represented by non-Hispanic White patients. As we strive to care for an increasingly diverse population and reduce disparities to care, spine surgeons must do a better job reporting these variables to increase the external validity and generalizability of RCTs.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Neurocirurgia , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Coluna Vertebral/cirurgia , População Negra , Procedimentos Neurocirúrgicos
9.
Global Spine J ; 13(3): 873-896, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36222735

RESUMO

STUDY DESIGN: Systematic Literature Review. OBJECTIVE: To propose a systematic imaging algorithm for diagnosing posterior ligamentous complex (PLC) injury in computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to improve the reliability of PLC assessment. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. The Scopus database was searched from its inception until July 21, 2022, for studies evaluating CT or MRI assessment of the PLC injury following thoracolumbar trauma. The studies extracted key findings, objectives, injury definitions, and radiographic modalities. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies were included in this systematic review, encompassing 2021 patients. Five studies evaluated the accuracy of MRI in detecting thoracolumbar PLC injury using intraoperative findings as a reference. These studies indicate that black stripe discontinuity due to supraspinous or ligamentum flavum rupture is a more specific criterion of PLC injury than high-signal intensity. Thirteen papers evaluated the accuracy or reliability of CT in detecting thoracolumbar PLC injury using MRI or intraoperative findings as a reference. The overall accuracy rate of CT in detecting PLC injury was 68-90%. Two studies evaluate the accuracy of combined CT findings, showing that ≥2 CT findings are associated with a positive predictive value of 88-91 %. Vertebral translation, facet joint malalignment, spinous process fracture, horizontal laminar fracture, and interspinous widening were independent predictors of PLC injury. CONCLUSION: We provided a comprehensive imaging algorithm for diagnosing PLC in CT and MRI based on available literature and our experience. The algorithm will potentially improve the accuracy and reliability of PLC assessment, however it needs multicentre prospective validation.

10.
World Neurosurg ; 169: e214-e220, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36323348

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of operative duration on the rate of postoperative symptomatic venous thromboembolic (VTE) events in patients undergoing thoracolumbar spine fusion. METHODS: We identified all thoracolumbar spine fusion patients between 2012 and 2021. Operative duration was defined as time from skin incision to skin closure. A 1:1 propensity match was conducted incorporating patient and surgical characteristics. Logistic regression was performed to assess predictors of postoperative symptomatic VTE events. A receiver operating characteristic curve was created to determine a cutoff time for increased likelihood of VTE. RESULTS: We identified 101 patients with VTE and 1108 patients without VTE. Seventy-five patients with VTE were matched to 75 patients without VTE. Operative duration (339 vs. 262 minutes, P = 0.010) and length of stay (5.00 vs. 3.54 days, P = 0.008) were significantly longer in patients with a VTE event. Operative duration was an independent predictor of VTE on multivariate regression (odds ratio: 1.003, 95% confidence interval: 1.001-1.01, P = 0.021). For each additional hour of operative duration, the risk of VTE increased by 18%. A cutoff time of 218 minutes was identified (area under the curve [95% confidence interval] = 0.622 [0.533-0.712]) as an optimal predictor of increased risk for a VTE event. CONCLUSIONS: Operative duration significantly predicted symptomatic VTE, especially after surgical time cutoff of 218 minutes. Each additional hour of operative duration was found to increase VTE risk by 18%. We also identify the impact of VTE on 90-day readmission rates, suggesting significantly higher costs and opportunity for hospital acquired conditions, in line with prior literature.


Assuntos
Embolia Pulmonar , Tromboembolia Venosa , Trombose Venosa , Humanos , Tromboembolia Venosa/etiologia , Tromboembolia Venosa/complicações , Fatores de Risco , Trombose Venosa/etiologia , Modelos Logísticos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Embolia Pulmonar/etiologia
11.
World Neurosurg ; 166: e443-e450, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35840090

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the effect of tranexamic acid (TXA) on reducing perioperative blood loss and length of stay after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF). Spine surgery is associated with the potential for significant blood loss, and adequate hemostasis is essential to visualizing crucial structures during the approach and procedure. Although TXA use has been extensively studied in the pediatric and adult spinal deformity literature, there is a dearth of literature on its efficacy in reducing blood loss for patients who undergo 1- to 3-level TLIF. METHODS: All patients requiring 1- to 3-level TLIF who received a preoperative loading dose of TXA were grouped and compared with patients who didn't receive TXA. Demographic, surgical, and laboratory values were collected and analyzed. Continuous and categorical variables were analyzed with χ2, Kruskal-Wallis, or analysis of variance tests, depending on normality and data type. Multiple linear regressions were developed to determine independent predictors of the estimated blood loss (EBL), total blood loss, drain output, and length of stay. Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS: Patients who received preoperative TXA had more comorbidities (P = 0.006), longer surgery length (P < 0.001), and longer length of stay (P = 0.004). TXA was independently associated with a decreased day 0, 1, 2, and total drain output (P < 0.001, P = 0.001, P = 0.007, P < 0.001, respectively), but was not associated with a change in EBL, total blood loss, or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The application of preoperative TXA for patients undergoing 1- to 3-level TLIF reduced drain output in the first 2 postoperative days, but it did not affect hospital length of stay, total blood loss, or EBL.


Assuntos
Fusão Vertebral , Ácido Tranexâmico , Adulto , Perda Sanguínea Cirúrgica/prevenção & controle , Criança , Humanos , Vértebras Lombares/cirurgia , Hemorragia Pós-Operatória/prevenção & controle , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fusão Vertebral/métodos , Ácido Tranexâmico/uso terapêutico
12.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(11): e24248, 2020 11 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33211026

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Since the novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, the scientific and public health community around the world have sought to better understand, surveil, treat, and prevent the disease, COVID-19. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), many countries responded aggressively and decisively with lockdown measures and border closures. Such actions may have helped prevent large outbreaks throughout much of the region, though there is substantial variation in caseloads and mortality between nations. Additionally, the health system infrastructure remains a concern throughout much of SSA, and the lockdown measures threaten to increase poverty and food insecurity for the subcontinent's poorest residents. The lack of sufficient testing, asymptomatic infections, and poor reporting practices in many countries limit our understanding of the virus's impact, creating a need for better and more accurate surveillance metrics that account for underreporting and data contamination. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to improve infectious disease surveillance by complementing standardized metrics with new and decomposable surveillance metrics of COVID-19 that overcome data limitations and contamination inherent in public health surveillance systems. In addition to prevalence of observed daily and cumulative testing, testing positivity rates, morbidity, and mortality, we derived COVID-19 transmission in terms of speed, acceleration or deceleration, change in acceleration or deceleration (jerk), and 7-day transmission rate persistence, which explains where and how rapidly COVID-19 is transmitting and quantifies shifts in the rate of acceleration or deceleration to inform policies to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 and food insecurity in SSA. METHODS: We extracted 60 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries and employed an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers in 47 sub-Saharan countries as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa have the most observed cases of COVID-19, and the Seychelles, Eritrea, Mauritius, Comoros, and Burundi have the fewest. In contrast, the speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence indicate rates of COVID-19 transmissions differ from observed cases. In September 2020, Cape Verde, Namibia, Eswatini, and South Africa had the highest speed of COVID-19 transmissions at 13.1, 7.1, 3.6, and 3 infections per 100,0000, respectively; Zimbabwe had an acceleration rate of transmission, while Zambia had the largest rate of deceleration this week compared to last week, referred to as a jerk. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate indicates the number of cases on September 15, 2020, which are a function of new infections from September 8, 2020, decreased in South Africa from 216.7 to 173.2 and Ethiopia from 136.7 to 106.3 per 100,000. The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results; they determined recent changes in the pattern of infection, and during the weeks of September 1-8 and September 9-15, there were substantial country differences in the evolution of the SSA pandemic. This change represents a decrease in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a de-escalation in the pandemic for the sub-Saharan African continent in general. CONCLUSIONS: Standard surveillance metrics such as daily observed new COVID-19 cases or deaths are necessary but insufficient to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 transmission. Public health leaders also need to know where COVID-19 transmission rates are accelerating or decelerating, whether those rates increase or decrease over short time frames because the pandemic can quickly escalate, and how many cases today are a function of new infections 7 days ago. Even though SSA is home to some of the poorest countries in the world, development and population size are not necessarily predictive of COVID-19 transmission, meaning higher income countries like the United States can learn from African countries on how best to implement mitigation and prevention efforts. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/21955.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Política de Saúde , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , África Subsaariana/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Sistema de Registros , SARS-CoV-2
13.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(12): e24286, 2020 12 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33216726

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has led to a global pandemic. The United States has been severely affected, accounting for the most COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Without a coordinated national public health plan informed by surveillance with actionable metrics, the United States has been ineffective at preventing and mitigating the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance has incomplete ascertainment and is limited by the use of standard surveillance metrics. Although many COVID-19 data sources track infection rates, informing prevention requires capturing the relevant dynamics of the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop dynamic metrics for public health surveillance that can inform worldwide COVID-19 prevention efforts. Advanced surveillance techniques are essential to inform public health decision making and to identify where and when corrective action is required to prevent outbreaks. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted COVID-19 data from global public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers for our use case in 50 US states and the District of Colombia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Examination of the United States and state data demonstrated that most US states are experiencing outbreaks as measured by these new metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Larger US states have high COVID-19 caseloads as a function of population size, density, and deficits in adherence to public health guidelines early in the epidemic, and other states have alarming rates of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence in novel infections. North and South Dakota have had the highest rates of COVID-19 transmission combined with positive acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence. Wisconsin and Illinois also have alarming indicators and already lead the nation in daily new COVID-19 infections. As the United States enters its third wave of COVID-19, all 50 states and the District of Colombia have positive rates of speed between 7.58 (Hawaii) and 175.01 (North Dakota), and persistence, ranging from 4.44 (Vermont) to 195.35 (North Dakota) new infections per 100,000 people. CONCLUSIONS: Standard surveillance techniques such as daily and cumulative infections and deaths are helpful but only provide a static view of what has already occurred in the pandemic and are less helpful in prevention. Public health policy that is informed by dynamic surveillance can shift the country from reacting to COVID-19 transmissions to being proactive and taking corrective action when indicators of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence remain positive week over week. Implicit within our dynamic surveillance is an early warning system that indicates when there is problematic growth in COVID-19 transmissions as well as signals when growth will become explosive without action. A public health approach that focuses on prevention can prevent major outbreaks in addition to endorsing effective public health policies. Moreover, subnational analyses on the dynamics of the pandemic allow us to zero in on where transmissions are increasing, meaning corrective action can be applied with precision in problematic areas. Dynamic public health surveillance can inform specific geographies where quarantines are necessary while preserving the economy in other US areas.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública , Sistema de Registros , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...