Herd immunity drives the epidemic fadeout of avian cholera in Arctic-nesting seabirds.

Avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, is a common and important infectious disease of wild birds in North America. Between 2005 and 2012, avian cholera caused annual mortality of widely varying magnitudes in Northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis) breeding at the largest colony in the Canadian Arctic, Mitivik Island, Nunavut. Although herd immunity, in which a large proportion of the population acquires immunity to the disease, has been suggested to play a role in epidemic fadeout, immunological studies exploring this hypothesis have been missing. We investigated the role of three potential drivers of fadeout of avian cholera in eiders, including immunity, prevalence of infection, and colony size. Each potential driver was examined in relation to the annual real-time reproductive number (Rt) of P. multocida, previously calculated for eiders at Mitivik Island. Each year, colony size was estimated and eiders were closely monitored, and evaluated for infection and serological status. We demonstrate that acquired immunity approximated using antibody titers to P. multocida in both sexes was likely a key driver for the epidemic fadeout. This study exemplifies the importance of herd immunity in influencing the dynamics and fadeout of epidemics in a wildlife population.

Multicentury perspective assessing the sustainability of the historical harvest of seaducks.

Where available, census data on seabirds often do not extend beyond a few years or decades, challenging our ability to identify drivers of population change and to develop conservation policies. Here, we reconstruct long-term population dynamics of northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis). We analyzed sterols together with stable nitrogen isotopes in dated pond sediment cores to show that eiders underwent broadscale population declines over the 20th century at Canadian subarctic breeding sites. Likely, a rapidly growing Greenland population, combined with relocation of Inuit to larger Arctic communities and associated increases in the availability of firearms and motors during the early to mid-20th century, generated more efficient hunting practices, which in turn reduced the number of adult eiders breeding at Canadian nesting islands. Our paleolimnological approach highlights that current and local monitoring windows for many sensitive seabird species may be inadequate for making key conservation decisions.

Modelling demographic impacts of a growing Arctic fishery on a seabird population in Canada and Greenland.

In Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, reports indicate that Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) are vulnerable to bycatch in the fisheries for Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). We modeled the potential current and future impacts the expanding halibut fishery may have on fulmar populations in the region using population viability analysis. By varying age-specific bycatch vulnerability, detectability, and the size of the at-risk population, we tested how different scenarios may influence population trajectories. From 2011 to 2015, the bycatch rate of fulmars was approximately 212 (SD ±â€¯111) individuals per year. This could cause declines (-12%) over three generations (66 years) at the three colonies closest to the fishing grounds. However, declines could be as high as -33% over this same period if unobservable bycatch is considered, and as low as -0.4% if bycatch is distributed among a larger population. Several uncertainties we modeled could be reduced by improving how bycatch data are recorded by at-sea observer programs.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems.

Injecting epidemiology into population viability analysis: avian cholera transmission dynamics at an arctic seabird colony.

Infectious diseases have the potential to spread rapidly and cause high mortality within populations of immunologically naïve hosts. The recent appearance of avian cholera, a highly virulent disease of birds caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, at remote Arctic seabird colonies is an emerging conservation concern. Determining disease risk to population viability requires a quantitative understanding of transmission potential and the factors that regulate epidemic persistence. Estimates of the basic (R0 ) and real-time (Rt ) reproductive number are critical in this regard - enumerating the number of secondary infections caused by each primary infection in a newly invaded host population and the decline in transmission rate as susceptible individuals are removed via mortality or immunized recovery. Here, we use data collected at a closely monitored common eider (Somateria mollissima) breeding colony located in the Canadian Arctic to examine transmission and host population dynamics. Specifically, we infer epidemic curves from daily mortality observations and use a likelihood-based procedure to estimate changes in the reproductive number over a series of annual outbreaks. These data are interpreted in relation to concurrent changes in host numbers to assess local extinction risk. Consistent with expectations for a novel pathogen invasion, case incidence increased exponentially during the initial wave of exposure (R0  = 2·5; generation time = 6·5 days ± 1·1 SD). Disease conditions gradually abated, but only after several years of smouldering infection (Rt  ≈ 1). In total, 6194 eider deaths were recorded during outbreaks spanning eight consecutive breeding seasons. Breeding pair abundance declined by 56% from the pre-outbreak peak; however, a robust population of >4000 pairs remained intact upon epidemic fade-out. Overall, outbreak patterns were consistent with herd immunity acting as a mitigating factor governing in the extent and duration of mortality. Disease mortality is frequently modelled as a form of stochastic catastrophe in wildlife population assessments, whereas our approach gives shape to the functional response between transmission and host population dynamics. We conclude that increased emphasis on integrating epidemiological and population processes is essential to predicting the conservation impact of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife.

Longer ice-free seasons increase the risk of nest depredation by polar bears for colonial breeding birds in the Canadian Arctic.

Northern polar regions have warmed more than other parts of the globe potentially amplifying the effects of climate change on biological communities. Ice-free seasons are becoming longer in many areas, which has reduced the time available to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to hunt for seals and hampered bears' ability to meet their energetic demands. In this study, we examined polar bears' use of an ancillary prey resource, eggs of colonial nesting birds, in relation to diminishing sea ice coverage in a low latitude region of the Canadian Arctic. Long-term monitoring reveals that bear incursions onto common eider (Somateria mollissima) and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) nesting colonies have increased greater than sevenfold since the 1980s and that there is an inverse correlation between ice season length and bear presence. In surveys encompassing more than 1000 km of coastline during years of record low ice coverage (2010-2012), we encountered bears or bear sign on 34% of eider colonies and estimated greater egg loss as a consequence of depredation by bears than by more customary nest predators, such as foxes and gulls. Our findings demonstrate how changes in abiotic conditions caused by climate change have altered predator-prey dynamics and are leading to cascading ecological impacts in Arctic ecosystems.

Characterizing the interface between wild ducks and poultry to evaluate the potential of transmission of avian pathogens.

BACKGROUND: Characterizing the interface between wild and domestic animal populations is increasingly recognized as essential in the context of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that are transmitted by wildlife. More specifically, the spatial and temporal distribution of contact rates between wild and domestic hosts is a key parameter for modeling EIDs transmission dynamics. We integrated satellite telemetry, remote sensing and ground-based surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of indirect contacts between wild and domestic birds to estimate the risk that avian pathogens such as avian influenza and Newcastle viruses will be transmitted between wildlife to poultry. We monitored comb ducks (Sarkidiornis melanotos melanotos) with satellite transmitters for seven months in an extensive Afro-tropical wetland (the Inner Niger Delta) in Mali and characterise the spatial distribution of backyard poultry in villages. We modelled the spatial distribution of wild ducks using 250-meter spatial resolution and 8-days temporal resolution remotely-sensed environmental indicators based on a Maxent niche modelling method. RESULTS: Our results show a strong seasonal variation in potential contact rate between wild ducks and poultry. We found that the exposure of poultry to wild birds was greatest at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season, when comb ducks disperse from natural water bodies to irrigated areas near villages. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides at a local scale a quantitative evidence of the seasonal variability of contact rate between wild and domestic bird populations. It illustrates a GIS-based methodology for estimating epidemiological contact rates at the wildlife and livestock interface integrating high-resolution satellite telemetry and remote sensing data.

Rapid diagnosis of avian influenza virus in wild birds: use of a portable rRT-PCR and freeze-dried reagents in the field.

Wild birds have been implicated in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype, prompting surveillance along migratory flyways. Sampling of wild birds for avian influenza virus (AIV) is often conducted in remote regions, but results are often delayed because of the need to transport samples to a laboratory equipped for molecular testing. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) is a molecular technique that offers one of the most accurate and sensitive methods for diagnosis of AIV. The previously strict lab protocols needed for rRT-PCR are now being adapted for the field. Development of freeze-dried (lyophilized) reagents that do not require cold chain, with sensitivity at the level of wet reagents has brought on-site remote testing to a practical goal. Here we present a method for the rapid diagnosis of AIV in wild birds using an rRT-PCR unit (Ruggedized Advanced Pathogen Identification Device or RAPID, Idaho Technologies, Salt Lake City, UT) that employs lyophilized reagents (Influenza A Target 1 Taqman; ASAY-ASY-0109, Idaho Technologies). The reagents contain all of the necessary components for testing at appropriate concentrations in a single tube: primers, probes, enzymes, buffers and internal positive controls, eliminating errors associated with improper storage or handling of wet reagents. The portable unit performs a screen for Influenza A by targeting the matrix gene and yields results in 2-3 hours. Genetic subtyping is also possible with H5 and H7 primer sets that target the hemagglutinin gene. The system is suitable for use on cloacal and oropharyngeal samples collected from wild birds, as demonstrated here on the migratory shorebird species, the western sandpiper (Calidrus mauri) captured in Northern California. Animal handling followed protocols approved by the Animal Care and Use Committee of the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center and permits of the U.S. Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory. The primary advantage of this technique is to expedite diagnosis of wild birds, increasing the chances of containing an outbreak in a remote location. On-site diagnosis would also prove useful for identifying and studying infected individuals in wild populations. The opportunity to collect information on host biology (immunological and physiological response to infection) and spatial ecology (migratory performance of infected birds) will provide insights into the extent to which wild birds can act as vectors for AIV over long distances.

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil.

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow's goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (≥ 2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow's goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.

Harlequin Duck population injury and recovery dynamics following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.

The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill caused significant injury to wildlife populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were particularly vulnerable to the spill and have been studied extensively since, leading to one of the most thorough considerations of the consequences of a major oil spill ever undertaken. We compiled demographic and survey data collected since the spill to evaluate the timing and extent of mortality using a population model. During the immediate aftermath of the spill, we estimated a 25% decrease in Harlequin Duck numbers in oiled areas. Survival rates remained depressed in oiled areas 6-9 years after the spill and did not equal those from unoiled areas until at least 11-14 years later. Despite a high degree of site fidelity to wintering sites, immigration was important for recovery dynamics, as the relatively large number of birds from habitats outside the spill zone provided a pool of individuals to facilitate numerical increases. On the basis of these model inputs and assumptions about fecundity rates for the species, we projected a timeline to recovery of 24 years under the most-likely combination of variables, with a range of 16 to 32 years for the best-case and worst-case scenarios, respectively. Our results corroborate assertions from other studies that the effects of spilled oil on wildlife can be expressed over much longer time frames than previously assumed and that the cumulative mortality associated with chronic exposure to residual oil may actually exceed acute mortality, which has been the primary concern following most oil spills.

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of oil exposure in harlequin ducks up to 20 years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

Hydrocarbon-inducible cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) expression was measured, as ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, in livers of wintering harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) captured in areas of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and in birds from nearby unoiled areas, during 2005 to 2009 (up to 20 years following the spill). The present work repeated studies conducted in 1998 that demonstrated that in harlequin ducks using areas that received Exxon Valdez oil, EROD activity was elevated nearly a decade after the spill. The present findings strongly supported the conclusion that average levels of hepatic EROD activity were higher in ducks from oiled areas than those from unoiled areas during 2005 to 2009. This result was consistent across four sampling periods; furthermore, results generated from two independent laboratories using paired liver samples from one of the sampling periods were similar. The EROD activity did not vary in relation to age, sex, or body mass of individuals, nor did it vary strongly by season in birds collected early and late in the winter of 2006 to 2007, indicating that these factors did not confound inferences about observed differences between oiled and unoiled areas. We interpret these results to indicate that harlequin ducks continued to be exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil up to 20 years after the original spill. This adds to a growing body of literature suggesting that oil spills have the potential to affect wildlife for much longer time frames than previously assumed.

Field detection of avian influenza virus in wild birds: evaluation of a portable rRT-PCR system and freeze-dried reagents.

Wild birds have been implicated in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIV) of the H5N1 subtype, prompting surveillance along migratory flyways. Sampling of wild birds is often conducted in remote regions, but results are often delayed because of limited local analytical capabilities, difficulties with sample transportation and permitting, or problems keeping samples cold in the field. In response to these challenges, the performance of a portable real-time, reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) unit (RAPID((R)), Idaho Technologies, Salt Lake City, UT) that employed lyophilized reagents (Influenza A Target 1 Taqman; ASAY-ASY-0109, Idaho Technologies) was compared to virus isolation combined with real-time RT-PCR conducted in a laboratory. This study included both field- and experimental-based sampling. Field samples were collected from migratory shorebirds captured in northern California, while experimental samples were prepared by spiking fecal material with an H6N2 AIV isolate. Results indicated that the portable rRT-PCR unit had equivalent specificity to virus isolation with no false positives, but sensitivity was compromised at low viral titers. Use of portable rRT-PCR with lyophilized reagents may expedite surveillance results, paving the way to a better understanding of wild bird involvement in HPAIV H5N1 transmission.

Migration of whooper swans and outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in eastern Asia.

Evaluating the potential involvement of wild avifauna in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (hereafter H5N1) requires detailed analyses of temporal and spatial relationships between wild bird movements and disease emergence. The death of wild swans (Cygnus spp.) has been the first indicator of the presence of H5N1 in various Asian and European countries; however their role in the geographic spread of the disease remains poorly understood. We marked 10 whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) with GPS transmitters in northeastern Mongolia during autumn 2006 and tracked their migratory movements in relation to H5N1 outbreaks. The prevalence of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry in eastern Asia during 2003-2007 peaked during winter, concurrent with whooper swan movements into regions of high poultry density. However outbreaks involving poultry were detected year round, indicating disease perpetuation independent of migratory waterbird presence. In contrast, H5N1 outbreaks involving whooper swans, as well as other migratory waterbirds that succumbed to the disease in eastern Asia, tended to occur during seasons (late spring and summer) and in habitats (areas of natural vegetation) where their potential for contact with poultry is very low to nonexistent. Given what is known about the susceptibility of swans to H5N1, and on the basis of the chronology and rates of whooper swan migration movements, we conclude that although there is broad spatial overlap between whooper swan distributions and H5N1 outbreak locations in eastern Asia, the likelihood of direct transmission between these groups is extremely low. Thus, our data support the hypothesis that swans are best viewed as sentinel species, and moreover, that in eastern Asia, it is most likely that their infections occurred through contact with asymptomatic migratory hosts (e.g., wild ducks) at or near their breeding grounds.

Survival of postfledging Forster's terns in relation to mercury exposure in San Francisco Bay.

We examined factors influencing mercury concentrations in 90 fledgling Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) and evaluated whether mercury influenced postfledging survival in San Francisco Bay, California. Mercury concentrations (+/- SE) in chicks 21-29 days old (just before fledging) were 0.33 +/- 0.01 microg g(-1) ww for blood and 6.44 +/- 0.28 microg g(-1) fw for breast feathers. Colony site had an overriding influence on fledgling contamination, however hatching date and age also affected blood, but not feather, mercury concentrations. Blood mercury concentrations decreased by 28% during the 50-day hatching period and increased with chick age by 30% during the last week prior to fledging. Using radio-telemetry, we calculated that cumulative survival during the 35-day postfledging time period was 0.81 +/- 0.09 (SE). Postfledging survival rates increased with size-adjusted mass, and cumulative survival probability was 61% lower for terns with the lowest, compared to the highest, observed masses. Conversely, survival was not influenced by blood mercury concentration, time since fledging, sex, or hatch date. Mercury concentrations in breast feathers of fledglings found dead at nesting colonies also were no different than those in live chicks. Our results indicate that colony site, hatching date, and age influenced mercury concentrations in fledgling Forster's terns, but that mercury did not influence postfledging survival.

A blood survey of elements, viral antibodies, and hemoparasites in wintering Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) and Barrow's Goldeneyes (Bucephala islandica).

Twenty-eight Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) and 26 Barrow's Goldeneyes (Bucephala islandica) were captured in Prince William Sound, Alaska, between 1 and 15 March 2005. Blood was collected for quantification of element concentrations, prevalence of antibodies to several viruses, and hemoparasite prevalence and identification. Although we found selenium concentrations that have been associated with selenosis in some birds (>or=2.0 ppm ww), our findings contribute to a growing literature describing relatively high selenium in apparently healthy birds in marine environments. Avian influenza virus antibodies were detected in the plasma of 28% of the ducks. No antibodies against adenovirus, reovirus, or paramyxovirus 1 were detected. Several hemo-parasite species were identified in 7% of ducks. Our findings are similar to those in other free-living marine waterfowl and do not indicate unusual concerns for the health of these species in this area in late winter.

Movements of wintering surf scoters: predator responses to different prey landscapes.

The distribution of predators is widely recognized to be intimately linked to the distribution of their prey. Foraging theory suggests that predators will modify their behaviors, including movements, to optimize net energy intake when faced with variation in prey attributes or abundance. While many studies have documented changes in movement patterns of animals in response to temporal changes in food, very few have contrasted movements of a single predator species naturally occurring in dramatically different prey landscapes. We documented variation in the winter movements, foraging range size, site fidelity, and distribution patterns of a molluscivorous sea duck, the surf scoter (Melanitta perspicillata), in two areas of coastal British Columbia with very different shellfish prey features. Baynes Sound has extensive tidal flats with abundant clams, which are high-quality and temporally stable prey for scoters. Malaspina Inlet is a rocky fjord-like inlet where scoters consume mussels that are superabundant and easily accessible in some patches but are heavily depleted over the course of winter. We used radio telemetry to track surf scoter movements in both areas and found that in the clam habitats of Baynes Sound, surf scoters exhibited limited movement, small winter ranges, strong foraging site fidelity, and very consistent distribution patterns. By contrast, in mussel habitats in the Malaspina Inlet, surf scoters displayed more movement, larger ranges, little fidelity to specific foraging sites, and more variable distribution patterns. We conclude that features associated with the different prey types, particularly the higher depletion rates of mussels, strongly influenced seasonal space use patterns. These findings are consistent with foraging theory and confirm that predator behavior, specifically movements, is environmentally mediated.

Mercury contamination and effects on survival of American avocet and black-necked stilt chicks in San Francisco Bay.

We evaluated whether mercury influenced survival of free-ranging American avocet (Recurvirostra americana) and black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) chicks in San Francisco Bay, California. Using radio telemetry, we radio-marked 158 avocet and 79 stilt chicks at hatching and tracked them daily until their fate was determined. We did not find strong support for an influence of in ovo mercury exposure on chick survival, despite observing a wide range of mercury concentrations in chick down feathers at hatching (0.40-44.31 microg g(-1) fw). We estimated that chick survival rates were reduced by < or =3% over the range of observed mercury concentrations during the 28-day period from hatching to fledging. We also salvaged newly-hatched chicks that were found dead during routine nest monitoring. In contrast to the telemetry results, we found that mercury concentrations in down feathers of dead chicks were higher than those in randomly-sampled live chicks of similar age. However, capture site was the most important variable influencing mercury concentrations, followed by year, species, and hatching date. Although laboratory studies have demonstrated negative effects of environmentally relevant mercury concentrations on chick survival, our results concur with the small number of previous field studies that have not been able to detect reduced survival in the wild.