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1.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf ; 278: 116379, 2024 Jun 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38714082

RESUMO

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) estimated by fitting a statistical distribution to ecotoxicity data are indispensable tools used to derive the hazardous concentration for 5 % of species (HC5) and thereby a predicted no-effect concentration in environmental risk assessment. Whereas various statistical distributions are available for SSD estimation, the fundamental question of which statistical distribution should be used has received limited systematic analysis. We aimed to address this knowledge gap by applying four frequently used statistical distributions (log-normal, log-logistic, Burr type III, and Weibull distributions) to acute and chronic SSD estimation using aquatic toxicity data for 191 and 31 chemicals, respectively. Based on the differences in the corrected Akaike's information criterion (AICc) as well as visual inspection of the fitting of the lower tails of SSD curves, the log-normal SSD was generally better or equally good for the majority of chemicals examined. Together with the fact that the ratios of HC5 values of other alternative SSDs to those of log-normal SSDs generally fell within the range 0.1-10, our findings indicate that the log-normal distribution can be a reasonable first candidate for SSD derivation, which does not contest the existing widespread use of log-normal SSDs.


Assuntos
Poluentes Químicos da Água , Medição de Risco , Animais , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade , Ecotoxicologia , Especificidade da Espécie , Testes de Toxicidade Aguda , Organismos Aquáticos/efeitos dos fármacos , Testes de Toxicidade Crônica , Modelos Estatísticos
2.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(19): 28538-28548, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38561531

RESUMO

Biomonitoring with bioindicators such as river macroinvertebrates is fundamental for assessing the status of freshwater ecosystems. In Japan, water quality and biomonitoring surveys are conducted separately, leading to a lack of nationwide information on their relationships and the biological status of water quality monitoring (WQM) sites. To understand the biological status of WQM sites across Japan, we developed a multiple linear regression model to estimate the average score per taxon (ASPT) using river macroinvertebrate data surveyed at a total of 237 "aligned" sites based on the co-occurrence of biomonitoring and WQM sites. The resulting regression model with eight predictors, such as biological oxygen demand, the proportion of urban areas in the catchment, could predict ASPT with reasonable accuracy (e.g., an error of ±1 for 96% of the aligned data). Using this model, we estimated ASPT values at 2925 WQM sites in rivers nationwide, categorizing them into four levels of river environment quality: "very good" (29% of WQM sites), "good" (50%), "fairly good" (14%), and "not good" (8%). Furthermore, we observed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05; 0.4 ≤ r ≤ 0.7) between ASPT and all eight macroinvertebrate metrics examined, such as mayfly and stonefly richness, providing ecological implications of changes in ASPT.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Invertebrados , Rios , Qualidade da Água , Animais , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Japão , Rios/química
3.
Arch Orthop Trauma Surg ; 144(1): 73-79, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37639045

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Open-wedge high tibial osteotomy (OWHTO) is the standard and safe procedure for medial compartment osteoarthritis. Although hardware removal (HWR) is performed after post-OWHTO bone union, the effects of HWR on OWHTO have been rarely reported. We hypothesised that HWR would improve range of motion (ROM) and implant-related complications. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the effects of HWR on postoperative ROM, the Japan Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score/visual analogue scale (VAS) score and hardware-related complications after OWHTO. METHODS: Patients who underwent OWHTO between January 2016 and June 2018 and HWR were retrospectively reviewed. To perform OWHTO, locking plates and prosthetic bone were used to achieve optimal stabilisation of biplanar osteotomy. HWR was performed after a second-look arthroscopy through the previous skin incision. For clinical evaluation, the JOA score, VAS score, and ROM were assessed before and 1 year after HWR using the Wilcoxon rank test. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of post-HWR improvement. RESULTS: Of 98 knees examined (91 patients), 80 (73 patients; 39 men and 34 women) were included. At the time of OWHTO, mean age was 64.0 ± 9.7 years and body mass index, 25.5 ± 3.1 kg/m2; Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 1 was seen in 20 cases, KL-2 in 46, and KL-3 in 14. Mean periods between OWHTO and HWR were 13.4 ± 2.0 months, and 11.9 ± 1.2 months between HWR and evaluation. The JOA score and flexion angle significantly improved after HWR (The JOA score: p = 0.026 flexion angle: p < 0.001); however, the VAS score and extension angle did not (VAS score: p = 0.162, extension angle: p = 0.934). Hardware irritation was observed in four cases (5%), which improved after HWR. Logistic regression analysis revealed that lower preoperative KL grade and flexion angle were predictors of improvement after HWR [KL grade: p = 0.008; odds ratio 3.244, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.350-7.794; flexion angle: p < 0.001; odds ratio 1.150, 95% CI 1.062-1.245]. CONCLUSION: HWR improves flexion angle, clinical outcomes and hardware-related complications after OWHTO. Preoperative KL grade and flexion angle are predictors of improvement after HWR in patients who have undergone OWHTO.


Assuntos
Articulação do Joelho , Osteoartrite do Joelho , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Articulação do Joelho/cirurgia , Osteoartrite do Joelho/cirurgia , Osteoartrite do Joelho/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Artroscopia/efeitos adversos , Tíbia/cirurgia , Osteotomia/efeitos adversos , Osteotomia/métodos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia
4.
Heliyon ; 9(11): e20943, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37920512

RESUMO

Improving sewage disposal rates is an important policy for maintaining the health of aquatic organisms in river environments. In Japan, the rate is not yet 100 %. Two measures are necessary to eliminate the discharge of untreated greywater: (1) increase the number of households connected to sewage lines in areas with sewage systems, and (2) replace single-type household onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) with combined-type systems. To estimate the effect of improving the disposal rate on river water quality, we developed a hydrology-based organic pollution assessment model with a gridded spatial resolution of 250 m to estimate the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in rivers in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. We considered three scenarios based on the sewage disposal rate of 70.5 % in 2015. In Scenario A, the disposal rate is increased to 75.2 % in 2030 by increasing the connection rate to sewage lines. In Scenario B, the rate is increased to 88.2 % in 2030 through additional progress in converting from single-to combined-type OWTSs. In Scenario C, the rate reaches 100 % by 2040. The ecological status of rivers was evaluated using taxon richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera estimated from its reported relationship to BOD. The number of sites in Gunma Prefecture polluted by organic waste classified as III (poor) and IV (very poor) was estimated to be 1610 under the present state (2015) and decreased to 1212 (25 % reduction) in Scenario A, 619 (62 % reduction) in Scenario B, and 50 (97 % reduction) in Scenario C, with the improvements mainly in small branch rivers. The effects of improved disposal rates were mainly evident in areas with relative high population densities using single-type OWTSs outside of areas with a sewage system, and measures taken in these areas were shown to be effective.

5.
Arch Orthop Trauma Surg ; 143(1): 149-158, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34213576

RESUMO

PURPOSE: To evaluate the mid-term results of medial open-wedge high tibial osteotomy (OWHTO) based on Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated clinical and radiographic outcomes of 93 patients (mean age 61.4 years, mean follow-up 64.2 months, 109 consecutive knees) who underwent OWHTO for medial compartment osteoarthritis (OA). KL grade was used to evaluate knee OA (KL-1 22 cases; KL-2, 51 cases; KL-3, 36 cases). The clinical outcomes were assessed using Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) and Lysholm scores. Radiographic outcomes were assessed using pre- and post-operative mechanical axis percentage, femorotibial angle, medial proximal tibial angle, and joint line convergence angle. Hinge fracture frequency and OA progression were also evaluated based on KL grades. RESULTS: The JOA score improved significantly from 70.3 ± 14.9 to 96.2 ± 4.4, 64.1 ± 12.5 to 95.1 ± 5.1, and 68.6 ± 11.4 to 92.1 ± 6.1 in the KL-1, KL-2, and KL-3 groups, respectively. The JOA score in the KL-3 group was significantly lower than in the other groups. The Lysholm score improved significantly from 62.6 ± 8.8 to 97.7 ± 4.7, 62.1 ± 8.1 to 96.7 ± 4.2, and 59.2 ± 9.2 to 95.8 ± 4.6 in the KL-1, KL-2, and KL-3 groups, respectively. The post-operative Lysholm scores were not significantly different among the groups. There were significant differences in radiographic parameters pre-operatively, but not post-operatively, among the groups. Although there were no significant differences in hinge fracture frequency and OA progression, the KL-3 grade predicted OA progression on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Mid-term results of OWHTO significantly improved. However, clinical score in the KL-3 group was lower than that in the KL-1 and KL-2 groups; radiological OA progression was a risk factor in KL-3.


Assuntos
Articulação do Joelho , Osteoartrite do Joelho , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Articulação do Joelho/cirurgia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Osteoartrite do Joelho/diagnóstico por imagem , Osteoartrite do Joelho/cirurgia , Osteotomia/métodos , Tíbia/diagnóstico por imagem , Tíbia/cirurgia
7.
Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc ; 31(4): 1220-1229, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34050769

RESUMO

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate preoperative sports participation and postoperative clinical outcomes including a return to sports (RTS) after hybrid closed-wedge high tibial osteotomy (CWHTO) for medial compartment osteoarthritis of the knee. Characteristic of Hybrid CWHTO was defined as extra-articular lateral closed and medial open wedge osteotomy. METHODS: The patients who underwent hybrid CWHTO from January 2016 to December 2018 were retrospectively reviewed and divided them into sports and non-sports groups. The preoperative demographic and radiographic characteristics were compared in both groups. And the clinical outcomes including the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score, visual analogue scale (VAS), Lysholm score, University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) activity score, and RTS in the sports group were also investigated. Statistical analysis was performed for comparisons among the preoperative factors between the two groups. Influence of sports impact and bone union of fibular osteotomy was also statistically investigated for RTS. RESULTS: Of the 161 knees (129 patients; 46 males, 83 females), 20 knees (16 patients; 13 males, 3 females; 12.3%) belonged to sports group. Although there were no significant differences regarding the age and radiographic parameters, there were significant differences in the body mass index and proportion of males between both groups. The JOA, VAS, Lysholm, and UCLA activity scores significantly improved after surgery. RTS was 80% at a mean duration of 7.2 ± 3.1 months. RTS in the high-impact sports group was significantly lower than that in the low-impact sports group (high-impact 60% vs. low-impact 100%, p = 0.043). There was no significant difference in RTS regarding bone union after fibular osteotomy. CONCLUSION: The clinical outcomes including RTS were satisfactory in patients with hybrid CWHTO. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.


Assuntos
Osteoartrite do Joelho , Volta ao Esporte , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Osteoartrite do Joelho/cirurgia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Articulação do Joelho/diagnóstico por imagem , Articulação do Joelho/cirurgia , Tíbia/cirurgia , Osteotomia
8.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf ; 246: 114170, 2022 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36242822

RESUMO

To use species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for ecological risk assessment, there are various uncertainties, which require applying assessment factors (AFs) accordingly. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of estimating statistical distributions. Given a management goal of protecting 95% of species, the concentration that affects 5% of the species (HC5) is estimated. Since the true concentration affecting 5% of the species (population HC5) is unknown, the estimated HC5 is divided by an AF to derive the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC), which is set as the protection goal, to compensate for the deviation in the estimated HC5 from the population HC5. Although the deviation between these two HC5 values depends on the sample size and the variation in sensitivity (standard deviation of the distribution) among species, there has been little discussion of how to quantify the degree of uncertainty. By assuming that toxicity values are a random sample from a lognormal distribution, we mathematically analyzed the SSD to derive the magnitude of AF needed to achieve a given protection goal (as an example, the protection of 95% of species with a probability of 95%). We successfully derived an equation that explicitly relates the magnitude of AF to the sample size and the variation in species sensitivity, providing a new basis to statistically determine the magnitude of AF for ecological risk assessments.


Assuntos
Poluentes Químicos da Água , Tamanho da Amostra , Medição de Risco , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Probabilidade , Especificidade da Espécie , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
9.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 41(8): 2021-2027, 2022 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35502940

RESUMO

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) play an important role in ecological risk assessment. Estimating SSDs requires toxicity data for many species, but reports on saltwater species are often limited compared to freshwater species. This limitation can constrain informed management of saltwater quality for the protection of marine ecosystems. We investigated the relationships between the parameters (i.e., mean and standard deviation [SD]) of freshwater and saltwater log-normal SSDs to determine how accurately saltwater toxicity could be estimated from freshwater toxicity test data. We estimated freshwater and saltwater SSDs for 104 chemicals with reported acute toxicity data for five or more species and compared their means, SDs, and hazardous concentrations for 5% of the species (HC5) derived from the acute SSDs. Standard major axis regression analyses generally showed that log-log relationships between freshwater and saltwater SSD means, SDs, and HC5 values were nearly 1:1. In addition, the ratios of freshwater-to-saltwater SSD means and HC5 values for most of the 104 chemicals fell within the range 0.1-10. Although such a strong correlation was not observed for SSD SDs (r2 < 0.5), differences between freshwater and saltwater SSD SDs were relatively small. These results indicate that saltwater acute SSDs can be reasonably estimated using freshwater acute SSDs. Because the differences of the means and SDs between freshwater and saltwater SSDs were larger when the number of test species used for SSD estimation was lower (i.e., five to seven species in the present study), obtaining toxicity data for an adequate number of species will be key to better approximation of a saltwater acute SSD from a freshwater acute SSD for a given chemical. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:2021-2027. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Ecotoxicologia , Água Doce , Medição de Risco , Especificidade da Espécie , Testes de Toxicidade , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade
10.
Microb Risk Anal ; 21: 100215, 2022 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35382415

RESUMO

There is a need to evaluate and minimize the risk of novel coronavirus infections at mass gathering events, such as sports. In particular, to consider how to hold mass gathering events, it is important to clarify how the local infection prevalence, the number of spectators, the capacity proportion, and the implementation of preventions affect the infection risk. In this study, we used an environmental exposure model to analyze the relationship between infection risk and infection prevalence, the number of spectators, and the capacity proportion at mass gathering events in football and baseball games. In addition to assessing risk reduction through the implementation of various preventive measures, we assessed how face-mask-wearing proportion affects infection risk. Furthermore, the model was applied to estimate the number of infectors who entered the stadium and the number of newly infected individuals, and to compare them with actual reported cases. The model analysis revealed an 86-95% reduction in the infection risk due to the implementation of face-mask wearing and hand washing. Under conditions in which vaccine effectiveness was 20% and 80%, the risk reduction rates of infection among vaccinated spectators were 36% and 96%, respectively. Among the individual measures, face-mask wearing was particularly effective, and the infection risk increased as the face-mask-wearing proportion decreased. A linear relationship was observed between infection risk at mass gathering events and the infection prevalence. Furthermore, the number of newly infected individuals was also dependent on the number of spectators and the capacity proportion independent of the infection prevalence, confirming the importance of considering spectator capacity in infection risk management. These results highlight that it is beneficial for organisers to ensure prevention compliance and to mitigate or limit the number of spectators according to the prevalence of local infection. Both the estimated and reported numbers of newly infected individuals after the events were small, below 10 per 3-4 million spectators, despite a small gap between these numbers.

11.
Arthrosc Tech ; 11(2): e115-e119, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35155101

RESUMO

Patellar tendon ruptures are severe but uncommon injuries that require surgical treatment. Primary repair for acute patellar tendon ruptures using augmentation techniques has shown good results in terms of biomechanical and clinical outcomes. This Technical Note details patellar tendon repair with suture tape augmentation for proximal patellar tendon rupture. Because this surgical technique does not require harvesting of the hamstring tendon and hardware removal, it is minimally invasive. In addition, it is simple and quick to perform.

12.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 41(5): 1304-1310, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35156224

RESUMO

Although the concept and modeling of metal bioavailability and toxicity have been well developed based largely on laboratory experiments with standard test species, additional evidence is required to demonstrate their applicability for macroinvertebrates typically found in natural lotic ecosystems. We conducted 10-day stream mesocosm experiments to test the hypothesis that increased water hardness (in the present study, the calcium [Ca] concentration was increased by adding CaCl2 ) would mitigate the effects of copper (Cu) on natural benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Exposure of macroinvertebrate communities to 25 µg/L Cu for 10 days in stream mesocosm experiments resulted in significant decreases in total abundance, in number of taxa, and in abundance of many macroinvertebrate taxa. However, the addition of Ca to stream mesocosms and the associated increase in water hardness up to 250 mg/L CaCO3 did not mitigate these effects of Cu on macroinvertebrate communities. The results showed that the hardness-based water quality criteria for Cu of the US Environmental Protection Agency were not protective under the conditions of relatively high hardness, low alkalinity, and circumneutral pH. In contrast, the water quality criteria based on the biotic ligand model predicted little protective effects of Ca on Cu toxicity, which is consistent with our results. Additional experiments are required to understand the influence of modifying factors on the toxicity of metals to macroinvertebrate communities. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:1304-1310. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.


Assuntos
Rios , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Cálcio , Cobre/toxicidade , Ecossistema , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade
13.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 41(4): 954-960, 2022 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35226391

RESUMO

Environmental contamination with nano- and microplastic (NMP) particles is an emerging global concern. The derivation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) is an essential step in estimating a hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5), and this HC5 value is often used as a "safe" concentration in ecological risk assessment, that is, predicted-no-effect concentration. Although properties of plastics such as particle size can affect toxic effect concentrations, such influences have not yet been quantitatively considered in estimating SSDs for NMP particles. We illustrate a log-normal SSD using chronic lowest-observed-effect concentrations (LOECs) of NMP particles from readily available toxicity data sets, considering the influence of particle size, polymer type, and freshwater or marine test media by adopting Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques. Results of the hierarchical SSD modeling suggest that the SSD mean was negatively associated with particle size and was lower in marine media than in freshwater media. The posterior medians of the HC5 estimated from the LOEC-based SSD varied by a factor of 10 depending on these factors (e.g., 1.8-20 µg/L for the particle size range of 0.1-5000 µm in the marine environment). Hierarchical SSD modeling allows us to clarify the influences of important factors such as NMP properties on effect concentrations, thereby helping to guide more relevant ecological risk assessments for NMP. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:954-960. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.


Assuntos
Microplásticos , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Teorema de Bayes , Ecotoxicologia , Microplásticos/toxicidade , Plásticos , Medição de Risco , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade
14.
Environ Toxicol Chem ; 41(2): 462-473, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34913527

RESUMO

Equilibrium partitioning (EqP) theory and spiked-sediment toxicity tests are useful methods to develop sediment quality benchmarks. However, neither approach has been directly compared based on species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) to date. In the present study, we compared SSDs for 10 nonionic hydrophobic chemicals (e.g., pyrethroid insecticides, other insecticides, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) based on 10-14-day spiked-sediment toxicity test data with those based on EqP theory using acute water-only tests. Because the exposure periods were different between the two tests, effective concentrations (i.e., median effective/lethal concentration) were corrected to compare SSDs. Accordingly, we found that hazardous concentrations for 50% and 5% of species (HC50 and HC5, respectively) differed by up to a factor of 100 and 129 between the two approaches, respectively. However, when five or more species were used for SSD estimation, their differences were reduced to a factor of 1.7 and 5.1 for HC50 and HC5, respectively, and the 95% confidence intervals of HC50 values overlapped considerably between the two approaches. These results suggest that when the number of test species is adequate, SSDs based on EqP theory and spiked-sediment tests are comparable in sediment risk assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:462-473. © 2021 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.


Assuntos
Inseticidas , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Animais , Sedimentos Geológicos/química , Inseticidas/toxicidade , Invertebrados , Compostos Orgânicos/toxicidade , Testes de Toxicidade , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
15.
Environ Int ; 157: 106774, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34332303

RESUMO

To identify potential countermeasures for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we determined the air exchange rates in stationary and moving train cars under various conditions in July, August, and December 2020 in Japan. When the doors were closed, the air exchange rates in both stationary and moving trains increased with increasing area of window-opening (0.23-0.78/h at 0 m2, windows closed to 2.1-10/h at 2.86 m2, fully open). The air exchange rates were one order of magnitude higher when doors were open than when closed. With doors closed, the air exchange rates were higher when the centralized air conditioning (AC) and crossflow fan systems (fan) were on than when off. The air exchange rates in moving trains increased as train speed increased, from 10/h at 20 km/h to 42/h at 57 km/h. Air exchange rates did not differ significantly between empty cars and those filled with 230 mannequins representing commuters. The air exchange rates were lower during aboveground operation than during underground. Assuming that 30-300 passengers travel in a train car for 7-60 min and that the community infection rate is 0.0050-0.30%, we estimated that commuters' infection risk on trains was reduced by 91-94% when all 12 windows were opened (to a height of 10 cm) and the AC/fan was on compared with that when windows were closed and the AC/fan was off.


Assuntos
Microbiologia do Ar , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados , COVID-19 , Ferrovias , Ventilação , Ar Condicionado , COVID-19/transmissão , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Microb Risk Anal ; 19: 100162, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33778137

RESUMO

The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source-environment-receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5-1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009-0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10-5. Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10-5 as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event.

17.
Arthrosc Tech ; 10(2): e269-e274, 2021 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33680755

RESUMO

A medial collateral ligament (MCL) tear is common in cases of isolated injury or in those combined with anterior cruciate ligament injury. Although conservative treatment for an MCL tear is popular, some cases result in residual instability. Thus, the treatment approach of grade III MCL injury remains controversial. In this Technical Note, we present the technique of arthroscopic primary MCL repair with suture anchor. With this technique, proximal MCL injuries can be repaired with minimal invasion. This technique improves valgus stability and enables early rehabilitation, including range of motion and weight-bearing exercise.

18.
PeerJ ; 9: e10981, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33717703

RESUMO

Estimation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) is a crucial approach to predicting ecological risks and water quality benchmarks, but the amount of data required to implement this approach is a serious constraint on the application of SSDs to chemicals for which there are few or no toxicity data. The development of statistical models to directly estimate the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the logarithms of log-normally distributed SSDs has recently been proposed to overcome this problem. To predict these two parameters, we developed multiple linear regression models that included, in addition to readily obtainable descriptors, the mean and SD of the logarithms of the concentrations that are acutely toxic to one algal, one crustacean, and one fish species, as predictors. We hypothesized that use of the three species' mean and SD would improve the accuracy of the predicted means and SDs of the logarithms of the SSDs. We derived SSDs for 60 chemicals based on quality-assured acute toxicity data. Forty-five of the chemicals were used for model fitting, and 15 for external validation. Our results supported previous findings that models developed on the basis of only descriptors such as log K OW had limited ability to predict the mean and SD of SSD (e.g., r 2 = 0.62 and 0.49, respectively). Inclusion of the three species' mean and SD, in addition to the descriptors, in the models markedly improved the predictions of the means and SDs of SSDs (e.g., r 2 = 0.96 and 0.75, respectively). We conclude that use of the three species' mean and SD is promising for more accurately estimating an SSD and thus the hazardous concentration for 5% of species in cases where limited ecotoxicity data are available.

19.
PeerJ ; 9: e10808, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33569256

RESUMO

Researchers have long assessed the ecological impacts of metals in running waters, but few such studies investigated multiple biological groups. Our goals in this study were to assess the ecological impacts of metal contamination on macroinvertebrates and fishes in a northern Japanese river receiving treated mine discharge and to evaluate whether there was any difference between the metrics based on macroinvertebrates and those based on fishes in assessing these impacts. Macroinvertebrate communities and fish populations were little affected at the downstream contaminated sites where concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd were 0.1-1.5 times higher than water-quality criteria established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We detected a significant reduction in a few macroinvertebrate metrics such as mayfly abundance and the abundance of heptageniid mayflies at the two most upstream contaminated sites with metal concentrations 0.8-3.7 times higher than the water-quality criteria. There were, however, no remarkable effects on the abundance or condition factor of the four dominant fishes, including masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou). These results suggest that the richness and abundance of macroinvertebrates are more sensitive to metal contamination than abundance and condition factor of fishes in the studied river. Because the sensitivity to metal contamination can depend on the biological metrics used, and fish-based metrics in this study were limited, it would be valuable to accumulate empirical evidence for ecological indicators sensitive to metal contamination within and among biological groups to help in choosing which groups to survey for general environmental impact assessments in metal-contaminated rivers.

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