Mid-late Holocene vegetation history of the Argive Plain (Peloponnese, Greece) as inferred from a pollen record from ancient Lake Lerna.

This study provides a high-resolution reconstruction of the vegetation of the Argive Plain (Peloponnese, Greece) covering 5000 years from the Early Bronze Age onwards. The well dated pollen record from ancient Lake Lerna has been interpreted in the light of archaeological and historical sources, climatic data from the same core and other regional proxies. Our results demonstrate a significant degree of human impact on the environments of the Argive Plain throughout the study period. During the Early Bronze Age evidence of a thermophilous vegetation is seen in the pollen record, representing the mixed deciduous oak woodland of the Peloponnesian uplands. The plain was mainly used for the cultivation of cereals, whereas local fen conditions prevailed at the coring site. Towards the end of this period an increasing water table is recorded and the fen turns into a lake, despite more arid conditions. In the Late Bronze Age, the presence of important palatial centres modified the landscape resulting in decrease of mixed deciduous oak woodland and increase in open land, partly used for grazing. Possibly, the human management produced a permanent hydrological change at Lake Lerna. From the Archaic period onwards the increasing human pressure in association with local drier conditions caused landscape instability, as attested by a dramatic alluvial event recorded in the Pinus curve at the end of the Hellenistic Age. Wet conditions coincided with Roman times and favoured a forest regeneration pattern in the area, at the same time as we see the most intensive olive cultivation in the pollen record. The establishment of an economic landscape primarily based on pastures is recorded in the Byzantine period and continues until modern times. Overgrazing and fires in combination with arid conditions likely caused degradation of the vegetation into garrigue, as seen in the area of the Argive Plain today.

Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano's miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity.

Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x.

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change.

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

Lessons from the past, policies for the future: resilience and sustainability in past crises.

This article surveys some examples of the ways past societies have responded to environmental stressors such as famine, war, and pandemic. We show that people in the past did think about system recovery, but only on a sectoral scale. They did perceive challenges and respond appropriately, but within cultural constraints and resource limitations. Risk mitigation was generally limited in scope, localized, and again determined by cultural logic that may not necessarily have been aware of more than symptoms, rather than actual causes. We also show that risk-managing and risk-mitigating arrangements often favored the vested interests of elites rather than the population more widely, an issue policy makers today still face.

The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

The Social Burden of Resilience: A Historical Perspective.

We examine the social burden associated with resilience to environmental shocks in pre-modern societies. We argue that analyses of state-level interventions to mitigate the consequences of catastrophic events tend to isolate these measures from their larger social contexts and thereby overlook the uneven distribution of their burden across different groups. We use three cases of pre-modern societies in the northeastern Mediterranean - the sixth century Roman Empire, the tenth century Byzantine Empire, and the sixteenth century Ottoman Empire. We demonstrate how the adaptive processes that reinforced resilience at the state level incurred different burdens for those at lower levels of the social hierarchy. We found that some groups sustained losses while others gained unexpected benefits in the context of temporary systemic instability. We also found that although elites enjoyed enhanced buffers against the adverse effects in comparison with non-elites, this did not consistently guarantee them a better outcome. We conclude that the differentiated burden of resilience could in some cases entrench existing political or economic configurations, and in other cases, overturn them. Our case studies indirectly address the pressing issue of environmental justice.

Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium.

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095-1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260-1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580-1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

History meets palaeoscience: Consilience and collaboration in studying past societal responses to environmental change.

History and archaeology have a well-established engagement with issues of premodern societal development and the interaction between physical and cultural environments; together, they offer a holistic view that can generate insights into the nature of cultural resilience and adaptation, as well as responses to catastrophe. Grasping the challenges that climate change presents and evolving appropriate policies that promote and support mitigation and adaptation requires not only an understanding of the science and the contemporary politics, but also an understanding of the history of the societies affected and in particular of their cultural logic. But whereas archaeologists have developed productive links with the paleosciences, historians have, on the whole, remained muted voices in the debate until recently. Here, we suggest several ways in which a consilience between the historical sciences and the natural sciences, including attention to even distant historical pasts, can deepen contemporary understanding of environmental change and its effects on human societies.

Evaluating the cross-cultural validity of the Polish version of the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) using differential item functioning (DIF) analysis.

BACKGROUND: The original Dutch Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ), which measures distress, depression, anxiety and somatization, has been translated into Polish with the aim of providing primary health care with a good screening instrument for the detection of the most prevalent mental health problems (anxiety, somatization, depression and distress). AIM: To check if the Polish version is cross-culturally valid so that the scores of Polish subjects can be compared with the scores of Dutch subjects and the Dutch cut-off points can be used in Polish subjects. METHOD: 4DSQ data were collected from a mixed sample of students and primary care attendees. The Polish data were compared with the 4DSQ data of a matched sample of Dutch students and primary care attendees. Two methods of differential item functioning (DIF) analysis, ordinal logistic regression and generalized Mantel-Haenszel, were used to detect items with DIF, and linear regression analysis was used to estimate the scale-level impact of DIF. RESULTS: Four items showing DIF were detected in the distress scale, one in the somatization scale and one in the anxiety scale. The DIF in distress caused Polish subjects with moderate scores to score circa 1 point less than their Dutch counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the DIF analyses suggest that the Polish 4DSQ measures the same constructs as the Dutch 4DSQ and that the Dutch norms can be used for the Polish subjects, except for distress: the first cut-off point should be one point lower.