Current trends in the application of causal inference methods to pooled longitudinal non-randomised data: a protocol for a methodological systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Causal methods have been adopted and adapted across health disciplines, particularly for the analysis of single studies. However, the sample sizes necessary to best inform decision-making are often not attainable with single studies, making pooled individual-level data analysis invaluable for public health efforts. Researchers commonly implement causal methods prevailing in their home disciplines, and how these are selected, evaluated, implemented and reported may vary widely. To our knowledge, no article has yet evaluated trends in the implementation and reporting of causal methods in studies leveraging individual-level data pooled from several studies. We undertake this review to uncover patterns in the implementation and reporting of causal methods used across disciplines in research focused on health outcomes. We will investigate variations in methods to infer causality used across disciplines, time and geography and identify gaps in reporting of methods to inform the development of reporting standards and the conversation required to effect change. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search four databases (EBSCO, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science) using a search strategy developed with librarians from three universities (Heidelberg University, Harvard University, and University of California, San Francisco). The search strategy includes terms such as 'pool*', 'harmoniz*', 'cohort*', 'observational', variations on 'individual-level data'. Four reviewers will independently screen articles using Covidence and extract data from included articles. The extracted data will be analysed descriptively in tables and graphically to reveal the pattern in methods implementation and reporting. This protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020143148). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval was required as only publicly available data were used. The results will be submitted as a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal, disseminated in conferences if relevant, and published as part of doctoral dissertations in Global Health at the Heidelberg University Hospital.

Schistosomiasis in European Travelers and Migrants: Analysis of 14 Years TropNet Surveillance Data.

Schistosomiasis remains one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases worldwide and the infection is frequently found in travelers and migrants. The European Network for Tropical Medicine and Travel Health conducted a sentinel surveillance study on imported schistosomiasis between 1997 and 2010. This report summarizes epidemiological and clinical data from 1,465 cases of imported schistosomiasis. Direct pathogen detection and serology were the main diagnostic tools applied. Of these, 486 (33%) cases were identified among European travelers, 231 (16%) among long-term expatriates, and 748 (51%) among non-European immigrants. Overall, only 18.6% of travelers had received pretravel advice; 95% of infections were acquired in the African region. On species level, Schistosoma mansoni was identified in 570 (39%) and Schistosoma haematobium in 318 (22%) cases; 57.5% of patients were symptomatic. Acute symptoms were reported in 27% of patients leading to earlier presentation within 3 months. Praziquantel was used in all patients to treat schistosomiasis. Many infections were detected in asymptomatic patients. In 47.4% of asymptomatic patients infection was detected by microscopy and in 39% by serology or antigen testing. Schistosomiasis remains a frequent infection in travelers and migrants to Europe. Travelers should be made aware of the risk of schistosomiasis infection when traveling to sub-Saharan Africa. Posttravel consultations particularly for returning expatriates are useful given the high potential for detecting asymptomatic infections.

Generation of monoclonal antibodies against native viral proteins using antigen-expressing mammalian cells for mouse immunization.

BACKGROUND: Due to their rising incidence and progressive geographical spread, infections with mosquito-borne viruses, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya and zika virus, have developed into major public health challenges. Since all of these viruses may cause similar symptoms and can occur in concurrent epidemics, tools for their differential diagnosis and epidemiological monitoring are of urgent need. RESULTS: Here we report the application of a novel strategy to rapidly generate monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against native viral antigens, exemplified for the DENV nonstructural glycoprotein 1 (NS1). The described system is based on the immunization of mice with transfected mammalian cells expressing the target antigens in multiple displays on their cell surface and thereby presenting them efficiently to the host immune system in their native conformation. By applying this cell-based approach to the DENV NS1 protein of serotypes 1 (D1NS1) and 4 (D4NS1), we were able to rapidly generate panels of DENV NS1 serotype cross-reactive, as well as D1NS1- and D4NS1 serotype-specific mAbs. Our data show that the generated mAbs were capable of recognizing the endogenous NS1 protein in DENV-containing biological samples. CONCLUSION: The use of this novel immunization strategy, allows for a fast and efficient generation of hybridoma cell lines, producing mAbs against native viral antigens. Envisaged applications of the mAbs include the development of test platforms enabling a differentiation of the DENV serotypes and high resolution immunotyping for epidemiological studies.

Substantial increase in mutations in the genes pfdhfr and pfdhps puts sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine-based intermittent preventive treatment for malaria at risk in Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVE: Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is widely used as intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) for malaria in pregnant women in Sub-Saharan Africa. There are reports of wide-spread SP resistance in countries where SP had once been used as a first-line treatment. It is unclear whether the development of SP resistance also affects countries where SP is mainly used in the context of IPT, as is the case in Burkina Faso. To assess the efficacy of SP-based IPT, we monitored the prevalence of SP conferring genetic mutations in the genes dhfr and dhps in Plasmodium falciparum populations in a rural area of Burkina Faso over a period of 13 years. METHODS: Molecular epidemiological study consisted of six consecutive cross-sectional surveys of rainy and dry seasons (2009-2012). Data from the rainy season in 2000 served as a baseline. Mutations in dhfr and dhps associated with SP resistance were analysed by pyrosequencing in 861 parasite-positive samples. RESULTS: The prevalence of the SP resistance conferring triple dhfr mutation 51I, 59R, 108N increased from 1.3% in the rainy season of 2000 to 35.3% in 2009, and 54.3% in 2011 (P ≤ 0.001). Comparing rainy and dry seasons, we observed an increasing step-like pattern with higher prevalence of the dhfr triple mutant in the respective dry season compared with the preceding rainy season. The proportion of the dhps 437Gly mutation in the rainy season of 2000 was 53.2% and subsequently increased to 77.6% in 2009 (P ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: The increase in molecular markers linked with SP resistance jeopardises the efficacy of IPTp and the planned IPTi interventions in Burkina Faso, calling for careful monitoring of genotypic resistance markers and in vivo validation of IPT efficacy.

Declining malaria parasite prevalence and trends of asymptomatic parasitaemia in a seasonal transmission setting in North-Western Burkina Faso between 2000 and 2009-2012.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission was reported to have declined in some East African countries. However, a comparable trend has not been confirmed for West Africa. This study aims to assess the dynamics of parasite prevalence and malaria species distribution over time in an area of highly seasonal transmission in Burkina Faso. The aim was also to compare frequency of asymptomatic parasitaemia between wet and dry season by parasite density status and age group. METHODS: During the years 2009-2012, six cross-sectional studies were performed in the rural village Bourasso in the Nouna Health District in north-west Burkina Faso. In subsequent rainy and dry seasons blood samples were collected to assess the parasite prevalence, species, density and clinical parameters. In total, 1,767 children and adults were examined and compared to a baseline collected in 2000. RESULTS: The microscopical parasite prevalence (mainly P. falciparum) measured over the rainy seasons decreased significantly from 78.9% (2000) to 58.4%, 55.9% and 49.3%, respectively (2009-2011; p <0.001). The frequency of Plasmodium malariae infections (mono- and co-infections) decreased parallel to the overall parasite prevalence from 13.4% in 2000 to 2.1%, 4.1% and 4.7% in 2009-2011 (p <0.001). Comparing parasite-positive subjects from the rainy season versus dry season, the risk of fever was significantly reduced in the dry season adjusting for parasite density (grouped) and age group. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest a decline of malaria transmission over the rainy seasons between 2000 and 2009-2011 in the region of Nouna, Burkina Faso. The decreased transmission intensity was associated with lower prevalence of P. malariae infections (both mono-infections and co-infections). Asymptomatic parasitaemia was more frequent in the dry season even adjusting for parasite density and age group in a multivariate regression. Possible reasons for this observation include the existence of less pathogenic Plasmodium falciparum genotypes prevailing in the dry season, or the effect of a reduced incidence density during the dry season.

Communicable diseases prioritized for surveillance and epidemiological research: results of a standardized prioritization procedure in Germany, 2011.

INTRODUCTION: To establish strategic priorities for the German national public health institute (RKI) and guide the institute's mid-term strategic decisions, we prioritized infectious pathogens in accordance with their importance for national surveillance and epidemiological research. METHODS: We used the Delphi process with internal (RKI) and external experts and a metric-consensus approach to score pathogens according to ten three-tiered criteria. Additional experts were invited to weight each criterion, leading to the calculation of a median weight by which each score was multiplied. We ranked the pathogens according to the total weighted score and divided them into four priority groups. RESULTS: 127 pathogens were scored. Eighty-six experts participated in the weighting; "Case fatality rate" was rated as the most important criterion. Twenty-six pathogens were ranked in the highest priority group; among those were pathogens with internationally recognised importance (e.g., Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Influenza virus, Hepatitis C virus, Neisseria meningitides), pathogens frequently causing large outbreaks (e.g., Campylobacter spp.), and nosocomial pathogens associated with antimicrobial resistance. Other pathogens in the highest priority group included Helicobacter pylori, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Varicella zoster virus and Hantavirus. DISCUSSION: While several pathogens from the highest priority group already have a high profile in national and international health policy documents, high scores for other pathogens (e.g., Helicobacter pylori, Respiratory syncytial virus or Hantavirus) indicate a possible under-recognised importance within the current German public health framework. A process to strengthen respective surveillance systems and research has been started. The prioritization methodology has worked well; its modular structure makes it potentially useful for other settings.

Multicentre prospective study on dengue classification in four South-east Asian and three Latin American countries.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the existing WHO dengue classification across all age groups and a wide geographical range and to develop a revised evidence-based classification that would better reflect clinical severity. METHODS: We followed suspected dengue cases daily in seven countries across South-east Asia and Latin America and then categorised them into one of three intervention groups describing disease severity according to the overall level of medical and nursing support required. Using a pre-defined analysis plan, we explored the clinical and laboratory profiles characteristic of these intervention categories and presented the most promising options for a revised classification scheme to an independent group of WHO dengue experts for consideration. Potential warning signs were also evaluated by comparing contemporaneous data of patients who progressed to severe disease with the data of those who did not. RESULTS: A total of 2259 patients were recruited during 2006-2007 and 230 (13%) of the 1734 laboratory-confirmed patients required major intervention. Applying the existing WHO system, 47/210 (22%) of patients with shock did not fulfil all the criteria for dengue haemorrhagic fever. However, no three-tier revision adequately described the different severity groups either. Inclusion of readily discernible complications (shock/severe vascular leakage and/or severe bleeding and/or severe organ dysfunction) was necessary to devise a system that identified patients requiring major intervention with sufficient sensitivity and specificity to be practically useful. Only a small number of subjects (5%) progressed to severe disease while under observation; several warning signs were identified, but much larger studies are necessary to fully characterize features associated with disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these results, a revised classification system comprised of two entities, 'Dengue' and 'Severe Dengue', was proposed and has now been incorporated into the new WHO guidelines.

The incidence of malaria in travellers to South-East Asia: is local malaria transmission a useful risk indicator?

BACKGROUND: The presence of ongoing local malaria transmission, identified though local surveillance and reported to regional WHO offices, by S-E Asian countries, forms the basis of national and international chemoprophylaxis recommendations in western countries. The study was designed to examine whether the strategy of using malaria transmission in a local population was an accurate estimate of the malaria threat faced by travellers and a correlate of malaria in returning travellers. METHODS: Malaria endemicity was described from distribution and intensity in the local populations of ten S-E Asian destination countries over the period 2003-2008 from regionally reported cases to WHO offices. Travel acquired malaria was collated from malaria surveillance reports from the USA and 12 European countries over the same period. The numbers of travellers visiting the destination countries was based on immigration and tourism statistics collected on entry of tourists to the destination countries. RESULTS: In the destination countries, mean malaria rates in endemic countries ranged between 0.01 in Korea to 4:1000 population per year in Lao PDR, with higher regional rates in a number of countries. Malaria cases imported into the 13 countries declined by 47% from 140 cases in 2003 to 66 in 2008. A total of 608 cases (27.3% Plasmodium falciparum (Pf)) were reported over the six years, the largest number acquired in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Four countries had an incidence > 1 case per 100,000 traveller visits; Burma (Myanmar), Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos (range 1 to 11.8-case per 100,000 visits). The remaining six countries rates were < 1 case per 100,000 visits. The number of visitors arriving from source countries increased by 60% from 8.5 Million to 13.6 million over the 6 years. CONCLUSION: The intensity of malaria transmission particularly sub-national activity did not correlate with the risk of travellers acquiring malaria in the large numbers of arriving visitors. It is proposed to use a threshold incidence of > 1 case per 100,000 visits to consider targeted malaria prophylaxis recommendations to minimize use of chemoprophylaxis for low risk exposure during visits to S-E Asia. Policy needs to be adjusted regularly to reflect the changing risk.

MR imaging for diagnosing cysto-biliary fistulas in cystic echinococcosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of magnetic resonance imaging (MR imaging) including MR cholangiography for the identification of cysto-biliary fistulas in patients with hepatic hydatid disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 3 groups of patients (20 patients with 51 echinococcal cysts) in a cohort of 103 patients with cystic echinococcosis with different pretest probabilities for cysto-biliary fistulas. Patients who had MR imaging/MR cholangiography with symptoms and signs of biliary obstruction (5 patients with 16 cysts, group I), before surgery for other reasons than biliary obstruction (9 patients with 14 cysts, group II) and for cyst staging (6 patients with 21 cysts, group III). All MR images were evaluated before surgery for the presence of cyst wall defects and hydatid debris in bile ducts. In groups I and II MR results were compared with surgical, parasitological, and biochemical findings of each individual cyst. RESULTS: Based on direct (i.e. defects in the cyst wall and continuity of dilated biliary ducts into adjacent cysts), and indirect MR imaging/MR cholangiography imaging signs (i.e. intraluminal debris) our best estimate of sensitivity and specificity (stage-specific, WHO type CE3 and CE4) for cysto-biliary fistulas was 75% and 95%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MR imaging with MR cholangiography is a valuable non-invasive imaging technique to assess the risk of cysto-biliary fistula-related complications and for planning of surgery.

The role of calcification for staging cystic echinococcosis (CE).

The prevalence of calcified cysts and the significance of calcification as a sign of cyst inactivity in cystic echinococcosis (CE) was evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (36 females, 42 males, mean age 40.8 +/- 16.9 years) with CE, having a total of 137 abdominal cysts (116 hepatic, three splenic, one renal and 17 peritoneal cysts), were diagnosed and followed-up by ultrasound during and after albendazole treatment or as part of the watch-and-wait approach recording changes in the cyst wall and content. In 48 patients with 94 cysts, computed tomography (CT) imaging was additionally available and was correlated with ultrasound findings. Cyst wall calcification was classified into (1) "sprinkled", (2) "eggshell-like", and (3) "circular". Calcification of the cyst wall and/or cyst content was detected in 67 echinococcal cysts (48.9% of all cysts) in 39 patients (15 females, 24 males, mean age 40.8 +/- 14.8 years). Of the total of 67 calcified cysts, only 23 were compatible with WHO type CE5, 18 with WHO type CE4. Judged by cyst content, the remaining 26 were of WHO type CE1, CE2 and CE3 (n = 1, n = 8, and n = 17, respectively). During a mean period of 34.3 months (+/- 21.3 months) the majority of cysts (n = 32) did not exhibit any change in cyst content and wall properties. Fourteen cysts showed signs of progressive involution, five cysts (all of WHO type CE3) of renewed activity defined by recurring fluid collection. In 16 cysts, no follow-up was available due to surgery or drop out. Calcification of the cyst is not restricted to the inactive WHO cyst types CE4 and CE5, but occurs in all stages and in up to 50% of cysts. The completeness and, most importantly, the stability of consolidation of cyst content over time predicts cyst inactivity more reliably.