Predictive modeling of indoor dust lead concentrations: Sources, risks, and benefits of intervention.

Lead (Pb) contamination continues to contribute to world-wide morbidity in all countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries. Despite its continued widespread adverse effects on global populations, particularly children, accurate prediction of elevated household dust Pb and the potential implications of simple, low-cost household interventions at national and global scales have been lacking. A global dataset (∼40 countries, n = 1951) of community sourced household dust samples were used to predict whether indoor dust was elevated in Pb, expanding on recent work in the United States (U.S.). Binned housing age category alone was a significant (p < 0.01) predictor of elevated dust Pb, but only generated effective predictive accuracy for England and Australia (sensitivity of ∼80%), similar to previous results in the U.S. This likely reflects comparable Pb pollution legacies between these three countries, particularly with residential Pb paint. The heterogeneity associated with Pb pollution at a global scale complicates the predictive accuracy of our model, which is lower for countries outside England, the U.S., and Australia. This is likely due to differing environmental Pb regulations, sources, and the paucity of dust samples available outside of these three countries. In England, the U.S., and Australia, simple, low-cost household intervention strategies such as vacuuming and wet mopping could conservatively save 70 billion USD within a four-year period based on our model. Globally, up to 1.68 trillion USD could be saved with improved predictive modeling and primary intervention to reduce harmful exposure to Pb dust sources.

International Analysis of Sources and Human Health Risk Associated with Trace Metal Contaminants in Residential Indoor Dust.

People spend increasing amounts of time at home, yet the indoor home environment remains understudied in terms of potential exposure to toxic trace metals. We evaluated trace metal (and metalloid) concentrations (As, Cu, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) and health risks in indoor dust from homes from 35 countries, along with a suite of potentially contributory residential characteristics. The objective was to determine trace metal source inputs and home environment conditions associated with increasing exposure risk across a range of international communities. For all countries, enrichments compared to global crustal values were Zn > Pb > Cu > As > Cr > Ni; with the greatest health risk from Cr, followed by As > Pb > Mn > Cu > Ni > Zn. Three main indoor dust sources were identified, with a Pb-Zn-As factor related to legacy Pb sources, a Zn-Cu factor reflecting building materials, and a Mn factor indicative of natural soil sources. Increasing home age was associated with greater Pb and As concentrations (5.0 and 0.48 mg/kg per year of home age, respectively), as were peeling paint and garden access. Therefore, these factors form important considerations for the development of evidence-based management strategies to reduce potential risks posed by indoor house dust. Recent findings indicate neurocognitive effects from low concentrations of metal exposures; hence, an understanding of the home exposome is vital.