Outbreak of Oropouche virus in frontier regions in western Amazon.

Oropouche virus (OROV) is characterized as a re-emerging arbovirus of great concern for public health, being responsible for several outbreaks of acute fever identified in Latin American countries, registering more than half a million reported cases. The incidence of reports of this virus is intrinsically favored by environmental conditions, in which such characteristics are related to the increase and distribution of the vector population to areas of human traffic. Moreover, there is a problem regarding the lack of diagnosis in Brazil that aggregates the success of the etiologic agent. Thus, by means of molecular techniques, we identified 27 positive cases of the OROV circulating in border locations in western Amazon, with 44.44% (12/27) of the cohort characterized as infected individuals with reported symptoms, mainly ranging from fever, myalgia, and back pain. Among the positive samples, it was possible to obtain a total of 48.14% (13/27) samples to analyze the S and M segments of Oropouche, which showed similarities among the Brazilian sequences. Thus, it was possible to verify the circulation of the OROV in Rondonia and border areas, in which the tracking of neglected arboviruses is necessary for the genomic surveillance of emerging and re-emerging viruses.IMPORTANCEThe western Amazon region is known for outbreaks of acute febrile illnesses, to which the lack of specific diagnostics for different pathogens hinders the management of patients in healthcare units. The Oropouche virus has already been recorded in the region in the 1990s. However, this is the first study, after this record, to perform the detection of individuals with acute febrile illness using a screening test to exclude Zika, dengue, and chikungunya, confirmed by sequencing the circulation of the virus in the state of Rondonia and border areas. We emphasize the importance of including diagnostics for viruses such as Oropouche, which suffers underreporting for years and is related to seasonal periods in Western Amazon locations, a factor that has a direct influence on public health in the region. In addition, we emphasize the importance of genomic surveillance in the elucidation of outbreaks that affect the resident population of these locations.

The emergence of Omicron VOC and its rapid spread and persistence in the Western Amazon.

Genomic surveillance represents a strategy to understanding the evolutionary mechanisms, transmission, and infectivity of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. We evaluated 603 individuals positive for SARS-CoV-2 from 34 municipalities of Rondônia between December 2021 to December 2022. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected, RNA was extracted and screened using RT-qPCR for VOCs. RNA of the samples were sequenced and further analyzed for phylogeny, mutations, and lineages, totaling 96.19% of samples positive for Omicron VOC in this cohort. We observed that most individuals had at least two doses, however 18.97% were not vaccinated with any dose. 554 sequences were amenable to analysis for alignment and phylogenetic characterization; this group corresponded to the 27 subvariants of the Omicron VOC; a total of 100 mutations were identified, 48% of which were found in the S gene. In conclusion, the data demonstrated the rapid spread and persistence of Omicron VOC in Rondônia during the 12-month study period. Although high frequency of mutations was found in the analyzed samples, there were no individuals with a severe clinical profile, demonstrating that vaccination had a positive effect in those cases.

Experience of Definitive Chemoradiation for Oesophageal Cancer Within a Large Regional Cancer Treatment Centre: Improving Outcomes and Tolerability.

AIMS: To review delivery of definitive chemoradiation (dCRT) for patients with oesophageal cancer within a large regional cancer centre. To assess toxicity, tolerability and outcomes and compare with published data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review of patients undergoing dCRT between November 2009 and November 2014 was carried out. Data were collected regarding treatment completion, radiotherapy plans, toxicity, failure and death. Kaplan-Meier survival curves with a Log-rank test for significance were used for survival analysis. RESULTS: In total, 179 patients were analysed. The median age at diagnosis was 70 years. Forty-four (24.6%) patients had T1 or T2 tumours, 113 (63.1%) T3 and 18 (10.1%) T4; 117 (65.4%) patients were node positive on initial staging. One hundred and forty patients were treated before 2012 with CRT and two adjuvant cycles of cisplatin and capecitabine. Of these, only 50% completed both adjuvant cycles of chemotherapy. Thirty-nine patients were treated after 2012 with neoadjuvant cisplatin and capecitabine followed by CRT. Of these, 92% completed all planned chemotherapy. Ninety-five per cent of patients completed radiotherapy without interruption, but only 46% completed concurrent capecitabine. The mean planning target volume (PTV) length was 13 cm (range 6.9-22.2 cm) and 27 (15%) patients had a PTV length greater than 16 cm. After a median follow-up of 19.6 months (range 3.0-71.9), 83 patients (46%) had relapsed, with 43 (24%) patients having isolated locoregional recurrence. The median overall survival was 26 months (95% confidence interval 20.2-31.8) with a 5 year overall survival rate of 19.7% (95% confidence interval 10.4-31.2). CONCLUSIONS: Our series shows comparable survival rates with published data despite an unselected population. The transition to neoadjuvant chemotherapy before CRT has improved tolerability and increased rates of completion of treatment. The locoregional failure rate remains significant and strategies for improving this, such as changing the chemotherapy back bone and radiation dose escalation, are eagerly awaited within the SCOPE-2 study.

Efficacy and tolerability of limited field radiotherapy with concurrent capecitabine in locally advanced pancreatic cancer.

AIMS: Patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) are most commonly managed with chemotherapy or concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT), which may or may not include non-involved regional lymph nodes in the clinical target volume. We present our results of CRT for LAPC using capecitabine and delivering radiotherapy to a limited radiation field that excluded non-involved regional lymph nodes from the clinical target volume. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty patients were studied. Patients received 50.4 Gy external beam radiotherapy in 28 fractions, delivered to a planning target volume expanded from the primary tumour and involved nodes only. Capecitabine (500-600 mg/m2) was given twice daily continuously during radiotherapy. Toxicity and efficacy data were prospectively collected. RESULTS: Nausea, vomiting and tumour pain were the most common grade 2 toxicities. One patient developed grade 3 nausea. The median time to progression was 8.8 months, with 20% remaining progression free at 1 year. The median overall survival was 9.7 months with a 1 year survival of 30%. Of 21 patients with imaged progression, 13 (62%) progressed systemically, three (14%) had local progression, two (10%) had locoregional progression and three (14%) progressed with both local/locoregional and systemic disease. CONCLUSION: CRT using capecitabine and limited field radiotherapy is a well-tolerated, relatively efficacious treatment for LAPC. The low toxicity and low regional progression rates support the use of limited field radiotherapy, allowing evaluation of this regimen with other anti-cancer agents.

Is mechanical embolectomy performed in nonanesthetized patients effective?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In centers performing endovascular treatment for patients with AIS, there is variability in placing patients under general anesthesia. Nonanesthetized patients might move during the procedure leading to complications and prolonging the time to revascularization due to lack of cooperation. However, general anesthesia can lead to a delay of the procedure, an inability to assess the patient during the procedure, and fluctuations of blood pressure. Our center does not routinely either use general anesthesia or sedate patients. We report our experience with nonanesthetized patients undergoing emergent mechanical embolectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 66 consecutive patients enrolled in the MERCI Registry at our center from June 2007 to June 2009. A univariate statistical analysis was performed by using the Fisher exact test for categoric variables and the Student t test for continuous variables in comparing use of general anesthesia with nonanesthetized patient demographics, procedural times, procedural complications, good outcome, and mortality. RESULTS: Nine patients (13.6%) were placed under general anesthesia, and 57 (86.4%) were awake. Higher baseline NIHSS scores and older age were statistically associated with general anesthesia. No significant difference occurred between groups in the time to groin puncture or procedural times. Revascularization rates were 77% for general anesthesia patients and 70% for nonanesthetized patients (P = .331). The nonanesthetized group had better outcomes, but we did not control these outcomes for other factors. Complications were much more frequent in the general anesthesia patients (22%) than in the nonanesthetized patients (3.5%) (P = .0288). CONCLUSIONS: Performing mechanical embolectomy in nonanesthetized patients at our institution does not prolong procedure time, decrease revascularization rates, increase complication rates, or decrease good outcome. Mechanical embolectomy in nonanesthetized patients is effective and should be considered an option in the treatment of the patient with AIS.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI for prostate cancer localization.

Radiotherapy dose escalation improves tumour control in prostate cancer but with increased toxicity. Boosting focal tumour only may allow dose escalation with acceptable toxicity. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy can deliver this, but visualization of the tumour remains limiting. CT or conventional MRI techniques are poor at localizing tumour, but dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) may be superior. 18 patients with prostate cancer had T(2) weighted (T2W) and DCE-MRI prior to prostatectomy. The prostate was sectioned meticulously so as to achieve accurate correlation between imaging and pathology. The accuracy of DCE-MRI for cancer detection was calculated by a pixel-by-pixel correlation of quantitative DCE-MRI parameter maps and pathology. In addition, a radiologist interpreted the DCE-MRI and T2W images. The location of tumour on imaging was compared with histology, and the accuracy of DCE-MRI and T2W images was then compared. Pixel-by-pixel comparison of quantitative parameter maps showed a significant difference between the benign peripheral zone and tumour for the parameters K(trans), v(e) and k(ep). Calculation of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the pharmacokinetic parameters were only "fair" discriminators between cancer and benign gland. Interpretation of DCE-MRI and T2W images by a radiologist showed DCE-MRI to be more sensitive than T2W images for tumour localization (50% vs 21%; p = 0.006) and similarly specific (85% vs 81%; p = 0.593). The superior sensitivity of DCE-MRI compared with T2W images, together with its high specificity, is arguably sufficient for its use in guiding radiotherapy boosts in prostate cancer.

Can we use the Jackson and Pollock equations to predict body density/fat of obese individuals in the 21st century?

OBJECTIVE: Jackson and Pollock's (JP) ground-breaking research reporting generalized body density equations to estimate body fat was carried out in the late 1970s. Since then we have experienced an 'obesity epidemic'. Our aim was to examine whether the original quadratic equations established by Jackson and co-workers are valid in the 21st century. METHODS: Reanalyzing the original JP data, an alternative, more biologically sound exponential power-function model for body density is proposed that declines monotonically, and hence predicts body fat to rise monotonically, with increasing skin-fold thicknesses. The model also remains positive irrespective of the subjects' sum-of-skinfold thicknesses or age. RESULTS: Compared to the original quadratic model proposed by JP, our alternative exponential power-function model is theoretically and empirically more accurate when predicting body fat of obese subjects (sums of skinfolds >120mm). A cross-validation study on 14 obese subjects confirmed these observations, when the JP quadratic equations under estimated body fat predicted using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) by 2.1% whereas our exponential power-function model was found to underestimate body fat by less than 1.0%. Otherwise, the agreement between the DXA fat (%) and the two models were found to be almost identical, with both coefficients of variation being 10.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Caution should be exercised when predicting body fat using the JP quadratic equations for subjects with sums of skinfolds>120 mm. For these subjects, we recommend estimating body fat using the tables reported in the present manuscript, based on the more biologically sound and empirically valid exponential power-function model.

Distortion-corrected T2 weighted MRI: a novel approach to prostate radiotherapy planning.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate distortion-corrected MRI as a radiotherapy planning tool for prostate cancer and the resultant implications for dose sparing of organs at risk. 11 men who were to be treated with radical conformal radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer had an MRI scan under radiotherapy planning conditions, which was corrected for geometric distortion. Radiotherapy plans were created for planning target volumes derived from the MRI- and CT-defined prostate. Dose volume histograms were produced for the rectum, bladder and penile bulb. The mean volume of the prostate as defined on CT and MRI was 41 cm3 and 36 cm3, respectively (p = 0.009). The predicted percentage of the rectum treated to dose levels of 45-65 Gy was significantly lower for plans delineating the prostate with MRI than for those with CT. The rectal-sparing effect was confined to the lowermost 4 cm of the rectum (anal canal). There were no differences between the predicted doses to bladder or penile bulb (as defined using MRI) between plans. In conclusion, prostate radiotherapy planning based on distortion-corrected MRI is feasible and results in a smaller target volume than does CT. This leads to a lower predicted proportion of the rectum, in particular the lower rectum (anal canal), treated to a given dose than with CT.

Genetic variation and decreased risk for obesity in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

AIM: To investigate the effects of variation in the leptin [LEP (19A>G)] and melanocortin-4 receptor [MC4R (V103I)] genes on obesity-related traits in 13 405 African-American (AA) and white participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. METHODS: We tested the association between the single-locus and multilocus genotypes and obesity-related measures [body mass index (BMI), body weight (BW), waist-hip ratio, waist circumference and leptin levels], adjusted for age, physical activity level, smoking status, diabetic status, prevalence of coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke or transient ischaemic attack. RESULTS: AA and white female carriers of the MC4R I103 allele exhibited significantly lower BW than non-carriers of this allele (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01 respectively). AA female carriers of both the LEP A19 allele and the MC4R I103 allele were 63% [odds ratio (OR) = 0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.18-0.78)] less likely to be obese, and white female carriers of the same two alleles were 46% [OR = 0.54, 95% CI (0.32-0.91)] less likely to be obese, than non-carriers of the variant alleles. Female carriers of both the LEP A19 and MC4R I103 alleles had significantly lower BW (p < 0.05), BMI (p < 0.05) and plasma leptin (p < 0.01) than the non-carriers of both the alleles. Carriers of the two variant alleles had lower BMI over the 9-year course of the ARIC study and significantly lower weight gain from age 25 years. No significant joint effect of these two variants was observed in males. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that variation within the LEP and MC4R genes is associated with reduced risk for obesity in females.

Distribution of lymph nodes in men with prostatic adenocarcinoma and lymphadenopathy at presentation: a retrospective radiological review and implications for prostate and pelvis radiotherapy.

AIMS: To describe the distribution of enlarged lymph nodes by nodal group found radiologically in patients presenting with adenocarcinoma of the prostate. This will help to define which nodal groups should be treated during the pelvic radiotherapy of patients with less advanced disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The scans of 55 men presenting with prostate cancer and metastases to lymph nodes only were reviewed. Lymph nodes of 8 mm or more in size were considered to be enlarged. RESULTS: The medial external iliac (obturator) nodes were most commonly enlarged (75% of patients) followed by nodes in the para-aortic region (26%) and anterior internal iliac region (24%). Para-aortic lymph-node enlargement was uncommon in the absence of pelvic lymphadenopathy. Midline pre-sacral lymph-node enlargement was not observed. Incidence of enlarged lymph nodes in the lateral external iliac group was 18%, an area which may not be routinely included during radiotherapy. CONCLUSION: There is a case for studying further the role of including lateral external iliac lymph nodes in the pelvic radiotherapy volume, as there may be an appreciable risk of lymph-node spread to this area.

Tumour staging using magnetic resonance imaging in clinically localised prostate cancer: relationship to biochemical outcome after neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy.

AIMS: To evaluate the prognostic significance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) tumour stage in clinically localised prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 1988 and 1999, 199 men with clinically localised prostate cancer (T -T4, N0/Nx, M0) were treated with neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy, and were staged using MRI. Concordance between clinical tumour (cT) stage, as determined by digital rectal examination, and MRI tumour (mT) stage was assessed. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model were used to study the prognostic role of cT stage and mT stage in addition to established prognostic factors. RESULTS: Of these 199 patients, 103 (52%) were upstaged on MRI, seven (3%) were downstaged, and in 89 (45%) cT and mT stages were concordant. With median follow-up of 3.8 years, 5-year freedom from prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure was 48% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39-56%). On univariate analysis, freedom from PSA failure was associated with mT stage (P = 0.009) as well as Gleason score (P < 0.001) and initial PSA (P < 0.001), but not cT stage (P = 0.449). On multivariate analysis, Gleason score (P = 0.001), initial PSA (P < 0.001), but not mT stage (P = 0.112) remained independent determinants of freedom from PSA failure. For the subgroup of 149 patients with cT1-2 disease, mT stage was a significant predictor of increased risk of PSA failure on univariate analysis (P = 0.005), but not multivariate analysis (P = 0.19). CONCLUSION: Freedom from PSA failure was more closely associated with mT stage than cT stage. Future studies are warranted to determine whether mT stage is an independent determinant of treatment outcome.

Pineal parenchymal tumours: I. Pineocytoma: a tumour responsive to platinum-based chemotherapy.

Pineocytoma and pineoblastoma are now recognised as a spectrum of the same disease. Three cases of pineocytoma (grade I-II) are presented, in which platinum-based chemotherapy was used with some success, either as part of primary therapy or at the time of relapse. With the recent reclassification of pineal parenchymal tumours into a grade I-IV continuum, the place of chemotherapy, previously only well-established in pineoblastoma, is discussed.

Generalized abdominal visceral fat prediction models for black and white adults aged 17-65 y: the HERITAGE Family Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the relationship between abdominal visceral fat (AVF) and measures of adiposity are different between Black and White subjects and to develop valid field prediction models that accurately identify those individuals with AVF levels associated with high risk for chronic disease. DESIGN: Cross-sectional measurements obtained from 91 Black men, 137 Black women, 227 White men, and 237 White women subjects, ages 17-65 y, who were participants in the HERITAGE Family Study, both at baseline and following 20 weeks of endurance training. MEASUREMENTS: AVF, abdominal subcutaneous fat (ASF), abdominal total fat (ATF), and sagittal diameter (SagD) were measured by computed tomography (CT). Body density was determined by hydrostatic weighing and was used to estimate relative body fat. Arm, waist (WC), and hip circumferences and skinfold thickness measures were taken, and BMI was calculated from weight (kg) and height (m(2)). Since CT abdominal fat variables were skewed, a natural log transformation (Ln) was used to produce a normal distribution. The General Linear Model (GLM) procedure was used to test the relationship between AVF and two different groups of variables-CT and anthropometric. RESULTS: The AVF of White men and women was significantly higher than that of Black men and women, independent of BMI, WHR, WC, and age, and was greater for men than for women. The CT model showed that the combination of SagD, Ln (ASF), age, and race accounted for 84 and 75% of the variance in AVF in men and women, respectively. The anthropometric model provided two valid generalized field AVF prediction equations. The Field-I equation, which included BMI, WHR, age and race, had an r(2) of 0.78 and 0.73 for men and women, respectively. The Field-II equation, which included BMI (women only), WC, age, and race, had an r(2) of 0.78 and 0.72 for men and women, respectively. The field model equations became less accurate as the estimated AVF increased. CONCLUSIONS: (1) At the same age and level of adiposity, Black men and women have less AVF than White men and women. These differences are greater in men than in women. (2) The field regression equations can be generalized to the diverse group of adults studied, both in an untrained and trained state. However, their accuracy decreases with increasing levels of AVF.

Generalized equations for predicting body density of men. 1978.

1. Skinfold thickness, body circumferences and body density were measured in samples of 308 and ninety-five adult men ranging in age from 18 to 61 years. 2. Using the sample of 308 men, multiple regression equations were calculated to estimate body density using either the quadratic or log form of the sum of skinfolds, in combination with age, waist and forearm circumference. 3. The multiple correlations for the equations exceeded 0.90 with standard errors of approximately +/-0.0073 g/ml. 4. The regression equations were cross validated on the second sample of ninety-five men. The correlations between predicted and laboratory-determined body density exceeded 0.90 with standard errors of approximately 0.0077 g/ml. 5. The regression equations were shown to be valid for adult men varying in age and fatness.

Measuring aerobic fitness of Hispanic youth 10 to 12 years of age.

Obesity is a major health problem in the U.S., especially for Hispanic youth. Because maximal/peak oxygen consumption (V.O (2)peak) is one predictor of future weight gain in children, valid field-based methods for determining V.O (2)peak in Hispanic children are needed. The purpose of this study was to validate a field-based aerobic fitness test, the 20-m shuttle test (20-MST), in Hispanic boys (n = 58) and girls (n = 67), 10 - 12 years old (mean age +/- SD, 10.7 +/- 0.6 y). Measured V.O (2)peak was determined during a maximal, graded treadmill test using the Bruce protocol. The 20-MST was administered per a standard protocol. Maximal speed attained on the 20-MST and age were used to estimate V.O (2)peak. An intraclass coefficient of 0.82 was obtained on 35 students (16 boys; r = 0.85 and 19 girls; r = 0.79) who completed the 20-MST twice, 1-wk apart. Estimated (44.3 ml x kg (-1) x min (-1) ) and measured (45.1 ml x kg (-1) x min (-1)) V.O (2)peak were not significantly different (p = 0.33). The correlation between the two V.O (2)peak parameters was r = 0.62; p < 0.001, the standard error of the estimate (SEE) was 3.91 ml x kg (-1) x min (-1), and 85.5 % of the measured V.O (2)peak values fell within 5.9 ml x kg (-1) x min (-1) of estimated V.O (2)peak. The weight status of the child did not significantly change these results. The 20-MST combined with the Leger et al. equation is a valid method for predicting V.O (2)peak in Hispanic youth. The test can be used to provide valuable information for intervention design and disease prevention.

Stereotactic radiosurgery. XVII: Recurrent intrasellar craniopharyngioma.

Stereotactic radiosurgery for craniopharyngioma is usually a high risk procedure due to the intimate relationship of the tumour to the optic chiasm and conservative dosing has been advocated to reduce complication rates. In 2002, in a publication from Karolinska Hospital, Sweden, 13 out of 21 patients received only a marginal dose of 6 Gy (not considered a radical dose) and 11 out of 13 tumours progressed. This recent report must argue against single dose stereotactic radiosurgery as the primary radiation therapy modality in most cases. However, where the disease is 'away' from the optic apparatus, such constraints do not apply. We here report the successful treatment of three consecutive patients whose craniopharyngioma was confined to the pituitary fossa, and a finite distance from the optic pathways and in whom optimal dosing was employed.

The effect of sex, age and race on estimating percentage body fat from body mass index: The Heritage Family Study.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effects of sex, age and race on the relation between body mass index (BMI) and measured percent body fat (%fat). DESIGN: Cross-sectional validation study of sedentary individuals. SUBJECTS: The Heritage Family Study cohort of 665 black and white men and women who ranged in age from 17 to 65 y. MEASUREMENTS: Body density determined from hydrostatic weighing. Percentage body fat determined with gender and race-specific, two-compartment models. BMI determined from height and weight, and sex and race in dummy coded form. RESULTS: Polynomial regression showed that the relationship between %fat and BMI was quadratic for both men and women. A natural log transformation of BMI adjusted for the non-linearity. Test for homogeneity of log transformed BMI and gender showed that the male-female slopes were within random variance, but the intercepts differed. For the same BMI, the %fat of females was 10.4% higher than that of males. General linear models analysis of the women's data showed that age, race and race-by-BMI interaction were independently related to %fat. The same analysis applied to the men's data showed that %fat was not just a function of BMI, but also age and age-by-BMI interaction. Multiple regression analyses provided models that defined the bias. CONCLUSIONS: These data and results published in the literature show that BMI and %fat relationship are not independent of age and gender. These data showed a race effect for women, but not men. The failure to adjust for these sources of bias resulted in substantial differences in the proportion of subjects defined as obese by measured %fat.

Predicting physical therapy visits needed to achieve minimal functional goals after arthroscopic knee surgery.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional regression modeling. OBJECTIVE: To predict physical therapy visits following arthroscopic knee surgery. BACKGROUND: The number of physical therapy visits required to achieve a set of specific minimal-level goals (full knee extension, straight leg raise, normalized gait pattern, bicycle pedaling, and independent home exercises) that are related to decreased complication rates has not previously been modeled. METHODS AND MEASURES: A multiple regression model to predict postoperative physical therapy visits was developed using subject demographics and 2 simple clinical measures, degree of straight leg raise lag and total range of motion. All data were collected from 148 patient charts. Model validity was examined by the predicted residual sum of squares technique and a second independent sample of 157 charts. RESULTS: Diagnosis group, surgery group, and range of motion were the significant variables predicting visits in the final model (R2 = 0.384). Results of model validation analyses using predicted residual sum of squares technique (R2 = 0.346) and the second set of data (R2 = 0.282) were satisfactory. Analysis of residuals (difference of observed and predicted visits) showed prediction of the number of physical therapy visits within 3 visits for approximately 75% of the cases in both sets of data. CONCLUSIONS: Using the model to predict physical therapy visits following arthroscopic knee surgery was more accurate than using diagnosis alone, except for lateral retinacular release. This study demonstrates how regression models could be used to explain variance in physical therapy visits for a given set of minimal functional goals.

Determining the amount of physical activity needed for long-term weight control.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate prospectively the influence of habitual physical activity on body weight of men and women and to develop a model that defines the role of physical activity on longitudinal weight change. DESIGN AND SETTING: Occupational cohort study conducted for a mean of 5.5 y. SUBJECTS: A total of 496 (341 male and 155 female) NASA/Johnson Space Center employees who completed the 3 month education component of the employee health-related fitness program and remained involved for a minimum of 2 y. MEASUREMENTS: Body weights were measured at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2), and habitual physical activity was obtained from the mean of multiple ratings of the 11-point (0-10) NASA Activity Scale (NAS) recorded quarterly between T1 and T2. Other measures included age, gender, VO(2 max) obtained from maximal treadmill testing, body mass index (BMI), and body fat percentage. RESULTS: Multiple regression demonstrated that mean NAS, T1 weight, aging and gender all influence long-term T2 weight. T1 age was significant for the men only. Independently, each increase in mean NAS significantly (P<0.01) reduced T2 weight in men (b=-0.91 kg; 95% CI:-1.4 to-0.42 kg) and women (b=-2.14 kg; 95% CI:-2.93 to-1.35 kg). Mean NAS had a greater effect on T2 weight as T1 weight increased, and the relationship was dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Habitual physical activity is a significant source of long-term weight change. The use of self-reported activity level is helpful in predicting long-term weight changes and may be used by health care professionals when counseling patients about the value of physical activity for weight control.