Mechanistic modeling projections of antibody persistence after homologous booster regimens of COVID-19 vaccine Ad26.COV2.S in humans.

Mechanistic model-based simulations can be deployed to project the persistence of humoral immune response following vaccination. We used this approach to project the antibody persistence through 24 months from the data pooled across five clinical trials in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-seronegative participants following vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 1010 viral particles), given either as a single-dose or a homologous booster regimen at an interval of 2, 3, or 6 months. Antibody persistence was quantified as the percentage of participants with detectable anti-spike binding and wild-type virus neutralizing antibodies. The projected overall 24-month persistence after single-dose Ad26.COV2.S was 70.5% for binding antibodies and 55.2% for neutralizing antibodies, and increased after any homologous booster regimen to greater than or equal to 89.9% for binding and greater than or equal to 80.0% for neutralizing antibodies. The estimated model parameters quantifying the rates of antibody production attributed to short-lived and long-lived plasma cells decreased with increasing age, whereas the rate of antibody production mediated by long-lived plasma cells was higher in women relative to men. Accordingly, a more pronounced waning of antibody responses was predicted in men aged greater than or equal to 60 years and was markedly attenuated following any homologous boosting regimen. The findings suggest that homologous boosting might be a viable strategy for maintaining protective effects of Ad26.COV2.S for up to 24 months following prime vaccination. The estimation of mechanistic modeling parameters identified the long-lived plasma cell pathway as a key contributor mediating antibody persistence following single-dose and homologous booster vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S in different subgroups of recipients stratified by age and sex.

Efficacy and safety of emapalumab in macrophage activation syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) is a severe, life-threatening complication of systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) and adult-onset Still's disease (AOSD). The objective of this study was to confirm the adequacy of an emapalumab dosing regimen in relation to interferon-γ (IFNγ) activity by assessing efficacy and safety. The efficacy outcome was MAS remission by week 8, based on clinical and laboratory criteria. METHODS: We studied emapalumab, a human anti-IFNγ antibody, administered with background glucocorticoids, in a prospective single-arm trial involving patients who had MAS secondary to sJIA or AOSD and had previously failed high-dose glucocorticoids, with or without anakinra and/or ciclosporin. The study foresaw 4-week treatment that could be shortened or prolonged based on investigator's assessment of response. Patients entered a long-term (12 months) follow-up study. RESULTS: Fourteen patients received emapalumab. All patients completed the trial, entered the long-term follow-up and were alive at the end of follow-up. The investigated dosing regimen, based on an initial loading dose followed by maintenance doses, was appropriate, as shown by rapid neutralisation of IFNγ activity, demonstrated by a prompt decrease in serum C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 9 (CXCL9) levels. By week 8, MAS remission was achieved in 13 of the 14 patients at a median time of 25 days. Viral infections and positive viral tests were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Neutralisation of IFNγ with emapalumab was efficacious in inducing remission of MAS secondary to sJIA or AOSD in patients who had failed high-dose glucocorticoids. Screening for viral infections should be performed, particularly for cytomegalovirus. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02069899 and NCT03311854.

Emapalumab in primary haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis and the pathogenic role of interferon gamma: A pharmacometric model-based approach.

AIM: Primary haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare, life-threatening, hyperinflammatory syndrome generally occurring in early childhood. The monoclonal antibody emapalumab binds and neutralises interferon γ (IFNγ). This study aimed to determine an emapalumab dosing regimen when traditional dose-finding approaches are not applicable, using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic analyses to further clarify HLH pathogenesis and confirm IFNγ neutralisation as the relevant therapeutic target in pHLH. METHODS: Initial emapalumab dosing (1 mg/kg) for pHLH patients participating in a pivotal multicentre, open-label, single-arm, phase 2/3 study was based on anticipated IFNγ levels and allometrically scaled pharmacokinetic parameters estimated in healthy volunteers. Emapalumab dosing was adjusted based on estimated IFNγ-mediated clearance and HLH clinical and laboratory criteria. Frequent dosing and emapalumab dose adaptation were used to account for highly variable IFNγ levels and potential target-mediated drug disposition. RESULTS: High inter- and intra-individual variability in IFNγ production (assessed by total IFNγ levels, range: 102 -106  pg/mL) was observed in pHLH patients. Administering emapalumab reduced IFNγ activity, resulting in significant improvements in clinical and laboratory parameters and a reduced risk of adverse events, mainly related to pHLH. Modelled outcomes supported dose titration starting from 1 mg/kg, with possible increases to 3, 6 or 10 mg/kg based on re-evaluation of parameters of disease activity every 3 days. CONCLUSIONS: The variable and unanticipated extremely high IFNγ concentrations in patients with pHLH are reflected in parameters of disease activity. Improved outcomes can be achieved by neutralising IFNγ using frequent emapalumab dosing and dose adaptation guided by clinical and laboratory observations.

Quantification of Radiation Injury on Neutropenia and the Link between Absolute Neutrophil Count Time Course and Overall Survival in Nonhuman Primates Treated with G-CSF.

PURPOSE: To model absolute neutrophil count (ANC) suppression in response to acute radiation (AR) exposure and evaluate ANC time course as a predictor of overall survival (OS) in response to AR exposure with or without treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in nonhuman primates. METHODS: Source data were obtained from two pivotal studies conducted in rhesus macaques exposed to 750 cGy of whole body irradiation on day 0 that received either placebo, daily filgrastim, or pegfilgrastim (days 1 and 8 after irradiation). Animals were observed for 60 days with ANC measured every 1 to 2 days. The population model of ANC response to AR and the link between observed ANC time course and OS consisted of three submodels characterizing injury due to radiation, granulopoiesis, and a time-to-event model of OS. RESULTS: The ANC response model accurately described the effects of AR exposure on the duration of neutropenia. ANC was a valid surrogate for survival because it explained 76% (95% CI, 41%-97%) and 73.2% (95% CI, 38.7%-99.9%) of the treatment effect for filgrastim and pegfilgrastim, respectively. CONCLUSION: The current model linking radiation injury to neutropenia and ANC time course to OS can be used as a basis for translating these effects to humans.

Clustering and Kernel Density Estimation for Assessment of Measurable Residual Disease by Flow Cytometry.

Standardization, data mining techniques, and comparison to normality are changing the landscape of multiparameter flow cytometry in clinical hematology. On the basis of these principles, a strategy was developed for measurable residual disease (MRD) assessment. Herein, suspicious cell clusters are first identified at diagnosis using a clustering algorithm. Subsequently, automated multidimensional spaces, named "Clouds", are created around these clusters on the basis of density calculations. This step identifies the immunophenotypic pattern of the suspicious cell clusters. Thereafter, using reference samples, the "Abnormality Ratio" (AR) of each Cloud is calculated, and major malignant Clouds are retained, known as "Leukemic Clouds" (L-Clouds). In follow-up samples, MRD is identified when more cells fall into a patient's L-Cloud compared to reference samples (AR concept). This workflow was applied on simulated data and real-life leukemia flow cytometry data. On simulated data, strong patient-dependent positive correlation (R2 = 1) was observed between the AR and spiked-in leukemia cells. On real patient data, AR kinetics was in line with the clinical evolution for five out of six patients. In conclusion, we present a convenient flow cytometry data analysis approach for the follow-up of hematological malignancies. Further evaluation and validation on more patient samples and different flow cytometry panels is required before implementation in clinical practice.

Emapalumab in Children with Primary Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis.

BACKGROUND: Primary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis is a rare syndrome characterized by immune dysregulation and hyperinflammation. It typically manifests in infancy and is associated with high mortality. METHODS: We investigated the efficacy and safety of emapalumab (a human anti-interferon-γ antibody), administered with dexamethasone, in an open-label, single-group, phase 2-3 study involving patients who had received conventional therapy before enrollment (previously treated patients) and previously untreated patients who were 18 years of age or younger and had primary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. The patients could enter a long-term follow-up study until 1 year after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation or until 1 year after the last dose of emapalumab, if transplantation was not performed. The planned 8-week treatment period could be shortened or extended if needed according to the timing of transplantation. The primary efficacy end point was the overall response, which was assessed in the previously treated patients according to objective clinical and laboratory criteria. RESULTS: At the cutoff date of July 20, 2017, a total of 34 patients (27 previously treated patients and 7 previously untreated patients) had received emapalumab; 26 patients completed the study. A total of 63% of the previously treated patients and 65% of the patients who received an emapalumab infusion had a response; these percentages were significantly higher than the prespecified null hypothesis of 40% (P = 0.02 and P = 0.005, respectively). In the previously treated group, 70% of the patients were able to proceed to transplantation, as were 65% of the patients who received emapalumab. At the last observation, 74% of the previously treated patients and 71% of the patients who received emapalumab were alive. Emapalumab was not associated with any organ toxicity. Severe infections developed in 10 patients during emapalumab treatment. Emapalumab was discontinued in 1 patient because of disseminated histoplasmosis. CONCLUSIONS: Emapalumab was an efficacious targeted therapy for patients with primary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. (Funded by NovImmune and the European Commission; NI-0501-04 and NI-0501-05 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01818492 and NCT02069899.).

Prediction of Survival Benefit of Filgrastim in Adult and Pediatric Patients With Acute Radiation Syndrome.

Acute exposure to high doses of radiation leads to severe myelosuppression, but few treatments are currently available to treat hematopoietic syndrome of acute radiation syndrome. Granulocyte colony stimulating factors (e.g., filgrastim) stimulate proliferation of neutrophil precursors and enhance mature neutrophil function. Owing to ethical constraints on conducting clinical research in lethally irradiated humans, we developed a model-based strategy to integrate preclinical experience in irradiated nonhuman primates (NHPs) and other clinical myelosuppressive conditions to inform filgrastim dosing to treat hematopoietic syndrome of acute radiation syndrome. Models predicting neutrophil counts and overall survival based on drug exposures were calibrated and scaled from NHPs to adult and pediatric human subjects. Several scenarios were examined investigating variations in filgrastim doses, dose frequency, treatment initiation, and duration, as well as the effect of age and radiation dose rate. Model-based simulations and established safety profiles supported that a subcutaneous filgrastim dose of 10 µg/kg once daily provides a significant survival benefit (50%) over placebo in both adults and children, provided that the treatment is initiated within 1-14 days after radiation exposure and lasts 2-3 weeks. For treatment durations of longer than 3 weeks, filgrastim treatment is not expected to provide significantly greater benefit. This survival benefit is expected to hold for the wide range of radiation doses and dose rates (0.01-1,000 Gy/hours) examined.

Efficacy and safety of NI-0101, an anti-toll-like receptor 4 monoclonal antibody, in patients with rheumatoid arthritis after inadequate response to methotrexate: a phase II study.

OBJECTIVES: Anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPAs) form immune complexes with citrullinated proteins binding toll-like receptor (TLR) 4, which has been proposed as a mediator of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). NI-0101 is a first-in-class humanised monoclonal antibody blocking TLR4, as confirmed by inhibition of in vivo lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release in healthy volunteers. This study was design to confirm preclinical investigations supporting a biomarker-driven approach for treatment of patients with RA who present positive for these immune complexes. METHODS: Placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomised (2:1) trial of the tolerability and efficacy of NI-0101 (5 mg/kg, every 2 weeks for 12 weeks) versus placebo in ACPA-positive RA patients with inadequate response to methotrexate. Efficacy measures included Disease Activity Score (28-joint count) with C reactive protein (DAS28-CRP), European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) good and moderate responses, and American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20, ACR50 and ACR70 responses. Subgroup analyses defined on biomarkers were conducted. Pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety were reported. RESULTS: 90 patients were randomised (NI-0101 (61) and placebo (29)); 86 completed the study. No significant between-group difference was observed for any of the efficacy endpoints. Subgroup analyses using baseline parameters as covariants did not reveal any population responding to NI-0101. Treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 51.7% of patients who received placebo versus 52.5% for NI-0101. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate for the first time that in RA, a human immune-mediated inflammatory disease, blocking the TLR4 pathway alone does not improve disease parameters. Successful targeting of innate immune pathways in RA may require broader and/or earlier inhibitory approaches.

Mathematical Disease Progression Modeling in Type 2/3 Spinal Muscular Atrophy.

INTRODUCTION: We propose a mathematical model to empirically describe spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) progression assessed by the 3 domains of the motor function measure (MFM) scale. The model implements development and deterioration of muscle function. METHODS: Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was applied to data from 2 observational studies and 1 prospective clinical efficacy study comprising 190 healthy participants and 277 patients with type 2/3 SMA. RESULTS: The model evidenced correlations between parameter estimates for different MFM domains. Slower development in MFM domain D1 (standing and transfers) was associated with faster deterioration for MFM domains D2 (proximal and axial motricity) and D3 (distal motor function). DISCUSSION: The model describes all individual data well, although sparseness and variability of observational data prevented numerically stable estimation of parameters. Treatment duration in clinical studies was too limited to determine a proper drug-effect model that could differentiate between symptomatic and disease modifying effects. Muscle Nerve 58: 528-535, 2018.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of neutrophil response to G-CSF in healthy subjects and patients with chemotherapy-induced neutropenia.

AIM: The objective of the present study was to use pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling to characterize the effects of chemotherapy on the granulopoietic system and to predict the absolute neutrophil counts (ANCs) for patients with chemotherapy-induced neutropenia treated with filgrastim and pegfilgrastim. METHODS: Data were extracted from 10 phase I-III studies conducted in 110 healthy adults, and 618 adult and 52 paediatric patients on chemotherapy following administration of filgrastim or pegfilgrastim. The structural model accounted for ANC dynamics and the effects of filgrastim and pegfilgrastim, chemotherapy and corticosteroids. The impact of neutrophils on drug disposition was based on a drug receptor-binding model that assumed quasi-equilibrium and stimulation of the production and maturation of neutrophils upon treatment. The chemotherapy and corticosteroid effects were represented by kinetic-pharmacodynamic-type models, where chemotherapy stimulated elimination of neutrophil precursors at the mitotic stage, and corticosteroids stimulated neutrophil production. RESULTS: The systemic half-lives of filgrastim (2.6 h) and pegfilgrastim (10.1 h) were as expected. The effective half-life of chemotherapy was 9.6 h, with a 2-day killing effect. The rate of receptor elimination from mitotic compartments exhibited extreme interindividual variability (% coefficient of variation >200), suggesting marked differences in sensitivity to chemotherapy effects on ANCs. The stimulatory effects of pegfilgrastim were significantly greater than those of filgrastim. Model qualification confirmed the predictive capability of this model. CONCLUSION: This qualified model simulates the time course of ANC in the absence or presence of chemotherapy and predicts nadir, time to nadir and time of recovery from different grades of neutropenia upon treatment with filgrastim and pegfilgrastim.

Population pharmacokinetic evaluation of ADV6209, an innovative oral solution of midazolam containing cyclodextrin.

INTRODUCTION: In the absence of a licensed formulation in many countries worldwide, ADV6209, an innovative 2mg/ml oral solution of midazolam containing cyclodextrin, has been developed for moderate sedation in paediatric patients. Population pharmacokinetics for ADV6209 is reported. METHODS: Plasma concentration data were collected from 37 paediatric patients and 12 healthy adults recruited in a single dose, open-label phase II pharmacokinetic study and in a single dose, randomised, open-label two-period crossover bioavailability study, respectively. Data were analysed using non-linear mixed effect modelling. Plasma concentrations of midazolam were described by a two-compartment model. An additional one-compartment model was added for α- hydroxymidazolam. RESULTS: The body weight covariate was found to have a significant impact on midazolam and α-hydroxymidazolam clearance, and on midazolam volume of distribution. The population pharmacokinetic model indicated that 77% of the midazolam dose was absorbed within 30min after oral administration. Parameter estimations for a subject of 34kg indicated values of midazolam clearance of 34.7l·h-1, a central volume of distribution of 27.9l and a peripheral volume of distribution of 413l. A higher metabolic ratio and a higher midazolam clearance per body weight were observed in the youngest group of subjects, in accordance with literature data. The clearance per body weight of α-hydroxymidazolam remained constant over the different age groups. CONCLUSION: Pharmacokinetic parameters were close to those reported in the literature with midazolam extemporaneous oral solutions or syrups, demonstrating that cyclodextrin had no significant effect on measured parameters.

Using early biomarker data to predict long-term bone mineral density: application of semi-mechanistic bone cycle model on denosumab data.

Osteoporosis is a chronic skeletal disease characterized by low bone strength resulting in increased fracture risk. New treatments for osteoporosis are still an unmet medical need because current available treatments have various limitations. Bone mineral density (BMD) is an important endpoint for evaluating new osteoporosis treatments; however, the BMD response is often slower and less profound than that of bone turnover markers (BTMs). If the relationship between BTMs and BMD can be quantified, the BMD response can be predicted by the changes in BTM after a single dose; therefore, a decision based on BMD changes can be informed early. We have applied a bone cycle model to a phase 2 denosumab dose-ranging study in osteopenic women to quantitatively link serum denosumab pharmacokinetics, BTMs, and lumbar spine (LS) BMD. The data from two phase 3 denosumab studies in patients with low bone mass, FREEDOM and DEFEND, were used for external validation. Both internal and external visual predictive checks demonstrated that the model was capable of predicting LS BMD at the denosumab regimen of 60 mg every 6 months. It has been demonstrated that the model, in combination with the changes in BTMs observed from a single-dose study in men, is capable of predicting long-term BMD outcomes (e.g., LS BMD response in men after 1 year of treatment) in different populations. We propose that this model can be used to inform drug development decisions for osteoporosis treatment early via evaluating LS BMD response when BTM data become available in early trials.

A semi-mechanistic model of bone mineral density and bone turnover based on a circular model of bone remodeling.

Development of novel therapies for bone diseases can benefit from mathematical models that predict drug effect on bone remodeling biomarkers. Therefore, a bone cycle model (BCM) was developed that takes into consideration the concept of the basic multicellular unit and the dynamic equilibrium of bone remodeling. The model is a closed form cyclical model with four compartments representing resorption, formation, primary mineralization, and secondary mineralization. Equations describing the time course of bone turnover biomarkers were developed using the flow rate of bone cycle units (BCU) between the compartments or the amount of BCU in each compartment. A disease progression model representing bone loss in osteoporosis, a vitamin D and calcium supplementation (placebo) model, and a drug model for antiresorptive treatments were added to the model. Initial model parameter values were derived from published bone turnover data. The BCM accurately described biomarker-time profiles in postmenopausal women receiving either placebo or bisphosphonate treatment. The slow continual increase in bone mineral density (BMD) observed after 1 year of treatment was accurately described when changes in bone turnover were combined with increases in mineralization. For this purpose, the secondary mineralization compartment was replaced by three catenary chain compartments representing increasing mineral content. The refined BCM satisfactorily predicted biomarker profiles after long-term (10-year) bisphosphonate treatment. Furthermore, the model successfully described individual bone turnover markers and BMD results following treatment with denosumab in postmenopausal women. Analyses with this model could be used to optimize dosing regimens and to predict effects of novel osteoporotic treatments.

Population pharmacokinetics of four ß-lactams in critically ill septic patients comedicated with amikacin.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetics (PK) of four ß-lactams (piperacillin, ceftazidime, cefepime, and meropenem) in patients comedicated with amikacin (AMK), and to confirm the predictive performance of AMK data, obtained from therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), on these PK, using a population modeling approach. DESIGN AND METHODS: Serum samples were collected in 88 critically ill septic patients. For each ß-lactam, the covariate model was optimized using renal function. Furthermore, predictive performance of AMK concentrations and PK parameters was assessed on ß-lactam PK. RESULTS: A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best fitted the ß-lactam data. Results supported the superiority of AMK concentrations, over renal function and AMK PK parameters, to assess the ß-lactam PK. CONCLUSION: The study confirmed the significant link between the exposure to AMK and to ß-lactams, and presented population models able to guide ß-lactam dosage adjustments using renal biomarkers or TDM-related aminoglycoside data.

The use of the SAEM algorithm in MONOLIX software for estimation of population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic-viral dynamics parameters of maraviroc in asymptomatic HIV subjects.

Using simulated viral load data for a given maraviroc monotherapy study design, the feasibility of different algorithms to perform parameter estimation for a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic-viral dynamics (PKPD-VD) model was assessed. The assessed algorithms are the first-order conditional estimation method with interaction (FOCEI) implemented in NONMEM VI and the SAEM algorithm implemented in MONOLIX version 2.4. Simulated data were also used to test if an effect compartment and/or a lag time could be distinguished to describe an observed delay in onset of viral inhibition using SAEM. The preferred model was then used to describe the observed maraviroc monotherapy plasma concentration and viral load data using SAEM. In this last step, three modelling approaches were compared; (i) sequential PKPD-VD with fixed individual Empirical Bayesian Estimates (EBE) for PK, (ii) sequential PKPD-VD with fixed population PK parameters and including concentrations, and (iii) simultaneous PKPD-VD. Using FOCEI, many convergence problems (56%) were experienced with fitting the sequential PKPD-VD model to the simulated data. For the sequential modelling approach, SAEM (with default settings) took less time to generate population and individual estimates including diagnostics than with FOCEI without diagnostics. For the given maraviroc monotherapy sampling design, it was difficult to separate the viral dynamics system delay from a pharmacokinetic distributional delay or delay due to receptor binding and subsequent cellular signalling. The preferred model included a viral load lag time without inter-individual variability. Parameter estimates from the SAEM analysis of observed data were comparable among the three modelling approaches. For the sequential methods, computation time is approximately 25% less when fixing individual EBE of PK parameters with omission of the concentration data compared with fixed population PK parameters and retention of concentration data in the PD-VD estimation step. Computation times were similar for the sequential method with fixed population PK parameters and the simultaneous PKPD-VD modelling approach. The current analysis demonstrated that the SAEM algorithm in MONOLIX is useful for fitting complex mechanistic models requiring multiple differential equations. The SAEM algorithm allowed simultaneous estimation of PKPD and viral dynamics parameters, as well as investigation of different model sub-components during the model building process. This was not possible with the FOCEI method (NONMEM version VI or below). SAEM provides a more feasible alternative to FOCEI when facing lengthy computation times and convergence problems with complex models.

An example of optimal phase II design for exposure response modelling.

This paper presents an example of how optimal design methodology was used to help design a phase II clinical study. The planned analysis would relate the clinical endpoint to exposure (measured via the area under the curve (AUC)), rather than dose. Optimal design methodology was used to compare a number of candidate phase II designs, and an algorithm for finding optimal designs was employed. The sigmoidal E(max) with baseline (E0) model was used to relate the clinical endpoint to individual subject AUCs, and the primary metrics were D optimality and the standard error (SE) of the AUC required to yield a clinically relevant change in the clinical endpoint. The performance of the candidate designs were compared across four different 'true' exposure response relationships (determined from the analysis of an earlier proof of concept (PoC) study). The results suggested the total sample size should be increased from the planned 540 individuals, and that the optimal design with 700 individuals would be equivalent to 812 individuals with the reference design (a 16% gain). The performance with this design was considered acceptable, although all designs performed poorly if the true exposure response relationship was very flat. This work allowed a prospective assessment of the likely performance and precision from the exposure response modelling prior to the start of the phase II study, and hence allowed the design to be revised to ensure the subsequent analysis would be of most value.

Basic PK/PD principles of drug effects in circular/proliferative systems for disease modelling.

Disease progression modelling can provide information about the time course and outcome of pharmacological intervention on the disease. The basic PK/PD principles of proliferative and circular systems within the context of modelling disease progression and the effect of treatment thereupon are illustrated with the goal to better understand/predict eventual clinical outcome. Circular/proliferative systems can be very complex. To facilitate the understanding of how a dosing regimen can be defined in such systems we have shown the derivation of a system parameter named the Reproduction Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (RMIC) which represents the critical concentration at which the system switches from growth to extinction. The RMIC depends on two parameters (RMIC = (R(0) - 1) x IC(50)): the basic reproductive ratio (R(0)) a fundamental parameter of the circular/proliferative system that represents the number of offspring produced by one replicating species during its lifespan, and the IC(50), the potency of the drug to inhibit the proliferation of the system. The RMIC is constant for a given system and a given drug and represents the lowest concentration that needs to be achieved for eradication of the system. When exposure is higher than the RMIC, success can be expected in the long term. Time varying inhibition of replicating species proliferation is a natural consequence of the time varying inhibitor drug concentrations and when combined with the dynamics of the circular/proliferative system makes it difficult to predict the eventual outcome. Time varying inhibition of proliferative/circular systems can be handled by calculating the equivalent effective constant concentration (ECC), the constant plasma concentration that would give rise to the average inhibition at steady state. When ECC is higher than the RMIC, eradication of the system can be expected. In addition, it is shown that scenarios that have the same steady state ECC whatever the dose, dosage schedule or PK parameters have also the same average R (0) in the presence of the inhibitor (i.e. R (0-INH)) and therefore lead to the same outcome. This allows predicting equivalent active doses and dosing schedules in circular and proliferative systems when the IC(50) and pharmacokinetic characteristics of the drugs are known. The results from the simulations performed demonstrate that, for a given system (defined by its RMIC), treatment success depends mainly on the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the drug and the dosing schedule.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling of psychomotor impairment induced by oral clonazepam in healthy volunteers.

This study was undertaken to model the relationship between clonazepam plasma concentrations and a central nervous system adverse effect (impairment of the psychomotor performance) following the oral administration of immediate-release tablets of clonazepam in healthy volunteers. Such a (P)pharmacokinetic/(P)pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) study is important to interpret properly the consequences of determined levels of plasma concentrations of psychoactive therapeutic drugs reported to be involved in road-traffic accidents. Twenty-three male subjects received a single oral dose of 4 mg clonazepam. Plasma concentration, determined by on-line solid phase extraction coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, and psychomotor performance, quantified through the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, were monitored for 72 hours. A 2-compartment open model with first order absorption and lag-time better fitted the plasma clonazepam concentrations. Clonazepam decreased the psychomotor performance by 72 +/- 3.7% (observed maximum effect), 1.5 to 4 hours (25th-75th percentile) after drug administration. A simultaneous population PK/PD model based on a sigmoid Emax model with time-dependent tolerance described well the time course of effect. Such acute tolerance could minimize the risk of accident as a result of impairment of motor skill after a single dose of clonazepam. However, an individual analysis of the data revealed a great interindividual variation in the relationship between clonazepam effect and plasma concentration, indicating that the phenomenon of acute tolerance can be predicted at a population, but not individual, level.

Retrospective population pharmacokinetic analysis of levetiracetam in children and adolescents with epilepsy: dosing recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize levetiracetam pharmacokinetics, identify significant covariate relationships and identify doses in children that achieve blood concentrations similar to those observed in adults. METHODS: Nonlinear mixed-effects modelling was used to analyse pooled data collected from 228 children with epilepsy aged 3 months to 18 years in five trials of adjunctive levetiracetam therapy. Simulations were used to identify dosing regimens achieving levetiracetam steady-state peak and trough plasma concentrations similar to those attained in adults receiving the recommended starting dose for adjunctive therapy (500 mg twice daily). The covariates considered for inclusion in the base model were age, bodyweight, gender, race, body surface area (BSA), body mass index (BMI), creatinine clearance (CL(CR)), levetiracetam dose, concomitant antiepileptic drug (AED) by category (neutral, enzyme inducer, inhibitor, combination of inducer and inhibitor), and benzodiazepines. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best characterized the data. The following significant covariates were identified: (i) age on the absorption rate constant (k(a)); (ii) bodyweight, dose, CL(CR) and concomitant enzyme-inducing AED on plasma oral clearance (CL/F); and (iii) bodyweight on the apparent volume of distribution after oral administration (V(d)/F). The main explanatory covariates were age on k(a), bodyweight on CL/F and V(d)/F, and enzyme-inducing AED on CL/F, of which bodyweight was the most influential covariate. Dosing can be carried out with either 10 mg/kg of oral solution twice daily in children weighing <50 kg and a 500-mg tablet twice daily in those weighing >50 kg or, when patients favour a solid formulation, 10 mg/kg of oral solution twice daily in children weighing <20 kg, a 250-mg tablet twice daily in those weighing 20-40 kg, and a 500-mg tablet twice daily in those weighing >40 kg. All of these doses achieved steady-state peak and trough plasma concentrations similar to those observed in adults following the recommended starting dose for adjunctive therapy (500 mg twice daily). CONCLUSIONS: The most influential covariate of levetiracetam pharmacokinetics in children is bodyweight. A starting dose of levetiracetam 10 mg/kg twice daily ensures the same exposure in children as does 500 mg twice daily in adults.

Population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis of CCR5 receptor occupancy by maraviroc in healthy subjects and HIV-positive patients.

BACKGROUND: Maraviroc, a noncompetitive antagonist of the CCR5 coreceptor, was recently approved in the USA as a treatment of HIV infection. For antiretroviral agents that target the virus, antiviral effect can be related to some extent to plasma drug concentrations. For CCR5 antagonists that target the host cells, receptor occupancy in vivo might be a better predictor of efficacy. AIMS To develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK)-pharmacodynamic (PD) model that describes CCR5 receptor occupancy by maraviroc after oral administration at different doses in healthy volunteers and HIV-positive patients and to assess the relevance of receptor occupancy in predicting the decrease in viral load (HIV-1 RNA copies ml(-1)) in HIV-positive patients. METHODS: Receptor occupancy data from 88 individuals enrolled in two multiple dose trials were included in the population PK-receptor binding model. Out of the 88 individuals, 25 were HIV-1-infected patients and had viral load measurements, whereas the remaining 63 were healthy volunteers. Doses ranged from 3 mg b.i.d. to 600 mg q.d. A previously published PK-PD disease model describing the effect of maraviroc on the viral load was updated by replacing its PD module by the receptor occupancy model. Simulated viral load-time profiles with the updated model were compared with the profiles observed in patients. RESULTS: The majority of measured plasma concentrations were associated with receptor occupancy > or = 50% even at the lowest dose of 3 mg b.i.d. A simple direct E(max) model appeared to describe satisfactorily the PK-receptor occupancy relationship. The estimated K(D) was around 0.0894 ng ml(-1), far below the operational in vivo antiviral IC(50) of 8 ng ml(-1). Accordingly, simulations led to marked overprediction of the decrease in viral load-time profiles. CONCLUSIONS: Maraviroc receptor occupancy close to the maximum is required to induce a significant decrease in viral load, indicating that in vivo CCR5 receptor occupancy by maraviroc is not a direct measure of drug inhibitory activity. Considering the imprecision of the measurement in the upper flat part of the maraviroc concentration vs. percent CCR5 occupancy curve, it can reasonably be concluded that routine monitoring of receptor occupancy as a biomarker for maraviroc efficacy will not be helpful. Based on this analysis, it was decided not to use receptor occupancy as a biomarker of viral load inhibition during the development of CCR5 antagonist compounds.