An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Dawn-to-dusk dry fasting decreases circulating inflammatory cytokines in subjects with increased body mass index.

Background: The circadian rhythm involves numerous metabolic processes, including sleep/awakening, body temperature regulation, hormone secretion, hepatic function, cellular plasticity, and cytokine release (inflammation), that appear to have a dynamic relationship with all the processes above. Studies have linked various cytokines to the chronic state of low-grade inflammation and oxidative stress in obesity. Dawn-to-dusk dry fasting (DDDF) could alleviate the adverse effects of obesity by decreasing inflammation. This study examined the effects of DDDF on circulating inflammatory cytokines in subjects with increased body mass index (BMI). Methods: The current observational prospective study included adult subjects with a BMI equal to or greater than 25 kg/m2 who practiced the annual religious 30-day DDDF. Individuals with significant underlying medical conditions were excluded to limit confounding factors. All subjects were evaluated within two weeks before 30-day DDDF, within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF, and within two weeks after 30-day DDDF. Multiple cytokines and clinical health indicators were measured at each evaluation. Results: Thirteen subjects (10 men and three women) with a mean age of 32.9 years (SD = 9.7 years) and a mean BMI of 32 kg/m2 (SD = 4.6 kg/m2) were included. An overall associated decrease in the levels of multiple cytokines with DDDF was observed. A significant decrease in the mean interleukin 1 beta level was observed within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF (P = 0.045), which persisted even after the fasting period (P = 0.024). There was also a significant decrease in the mean levels of interleukin 15 (IL-15) (P = 0.014), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (P = 0.041), macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC) (P = 0.013), and monokine induced by interferon gamma/chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 9 (P = 0.027) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and in the mean levels of fibroblast growth factor 2 (P = 0.010), interleukin 12 p40 subunit (P = 0.038), interleukin 22 (P = 0.025) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (P = 0.046) within two weeks after 30-DDDF. In terms of anthropometric parameters, there was a decrease in mean body weight (P = 0.032), BMI (P = 0.028), and hip circumference (P = 0.007) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and a decrease in mean weight (P = 0.026), BMI (P = 0.033) and hip circumference (P = 0.016) within two weeks after 30-day DDDF compared with the levels measured within two weeks before 30-day DDDF. Although there was no significant correlation between changes in weight and changes in circulating inflammatory cytokines, there was a significant positive correlation between changes in waist circumference and changes in specific inflammatory cytokines (e.g., IL-15, MDC, platelet-derived growth factor, soluble CD40L, vascular endothelial growth factor A) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and/or two weeks after 30-day DDDF. A significant decrease in mean average resting heart rate within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF was also observed (P = 0.023), and changes between average resting heart rate and changes in interleukin-8 levels within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF compared with baseline levels were positively correlated (r = 0.57, P = 0.042). Conclusion: DDDF appears to be a unique and potent treatment to reduce low-grade chronic inflammation caused by obesity and visceral adiposity. Further studies with more extended follow-up periods are warranted to investigate the long-term anti-inflammatory benefits of DDDF in individuals with increased BMI.

Genome-wide association study identifies high-impact susceptibility loci for HCC in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the substantial impact of environmental factors, individuals with a family history of liver cancer have an increased risk for HCC. However, genetic factors have not been studied systematically by genome-wide approaches in large numbers of individuals from European descent populations (EDP). APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a 2-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) on HCC not affected by HBV infections. A total of 1872 HCC cases and 2907 controls were included in the discovery stage, and 1200 HCC cases and 1832 controls in the validation. We analyzed the discovery and validation samples separately and then conducted a meta-analysis. All analyses were conducted in the presence and absence of HCV. The liability-scale heritability was 24.4% for overall HCC. Five regions with significant ORs (95% CI) were identified for nonviral HCC: 3p22.1, MOBP , rs9842969, (0.51, [0.40-0.65]); 5p15.33, TERT , rs2242652, (0.70, (0.62-0.79]); 19q13.11, TM6SF2 , rs58542926, (1.49, [1.29-1.72]); 19p13.11 MAU2 , rs58489806, (1.53, (1.33-1.75]); and 22q13.31, PNPLA3 , rs738409, (1.66, [1.51-1.83]). One region was identified for HCV-induced HCC: 6p21.31, human leukocyte antigen DQ beta 1, rs9275224, (0.79, [0.74-0.84]). A combination of homozygous variants of PNPLA3 and TERT showing a 6.5-fold higher risk for nonviral-related HCC compared to individuals lacking these genotypes. This observation suggests that gene-gene interactions may identify individuals at elevated risk for developing HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Our GWAS highlights novel genetic susceptibility of nonviral HCC among European descent populations from North America with substantial heritability. Selected genetic influences were observed for HCV-positive HCC. Our findings indicate the importance of genetic susceptibility to HCC development.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Independent of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Cirrhosis, Early Adulthood Obesity Is Associated with Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that 6% to 20% of all cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) diagnoses are explained by primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), but the underlying risk factors in the absence of PSC are unclear. We examined associations of different risk factors with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC) in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 121 patients with ECC and 308 patients with ICC treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between May 2014 and March 2020, compared with 1,061 healthy controls. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate the adjusted OR (AOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each risk factor. RESULTS: Being Asian, diabetes mellitus, family history of cancer, and gallbladder stones were associated with higher odds of developing ICC and ECC. Each 1-unit increase in body mass index in early adulthood (ages 20-40 years) was associated with a decrease in age at diagnosis of CCA (6.7 months, P < 0.001; 6.1 months for ICC, P = 0.001; 8.2 months for ECC, P = 0.007). A family history of cancer was significantly associated with the risk of ICC and ECC development; the AORs (95% CI) were 1.11 (1.06-1.48) and 1.32 (1.01-2.00) for ICC and ECC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, early adulthood onset of obesity was significantly associated with CCA and may predict early diagnosis at younger age than normal weight individuals. IMPACT: The study highlights the association between obesity and CCA, independent of PSC. There is a need to consider the mechanistic pathways of obesity in the absence of fatty liver and cirrhosis.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt with or without variceal embolization to prevent variceal rebleeding: an updated meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an established treatment for portal hypertension complications. Still, the role of adjuvant variceal embolization is a matter of debate. Thus, we aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TIPS with variceal embolization versus TIPS alone to prevent variceal rebleeding. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used PubMed, CENTRAL, and OVID to search for all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and comparative observational studies up to 17 June 20221117 June 2022. We pooled binary outcomes using risk ratios (RRs) presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using RevMan 5.4. RESULTS: We included 11 studies (two RCTs and nine observational studies) with 1024 patients. Pooled RR favored TIPS with embolization in preventing variceal rebleeding (RR 0.58, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.76); however, there was no difference between the two groups regarding shunt dysfunction (RR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68, 1.23), encephalopathy (RR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.70, 1.11), and death (RR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77, 1.22). CONCLUSIONS: TIPS with embolization can be an effective strategy for preventing variceal rebleeding; however, our results should be interpreted cautiously as most data were observational and the technical quality of the embolization is questionable. Further RCTs are required using the proper techniques of embolization and comparing TIPS with embolization with other treatment modalities such as endoscopic ligation, and balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration.

The novel SALT-M score predicts 1-year post-transplant mortality in patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Twenty-eight-day mortality ranges from 30-90% in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grades 2/3 (severe ACLF). Though liver transplantation (LT) has demonstrated a survival benefit, the scarcity of donor organs and uncertainty regarding post-LT mortality among patients with severe ACLF may cause hesitancy. We developed and externally validated a model to predict 1-year post-LT mortality in severe ACLF, called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality (SALT-M) score, and estimated the median length of stay (LoS) after LT (ACLF-LT-LoS). METHODS: In 15 LT centers in the US, we retrospectively identified a cohort of patients with severe ACLF transplanted between 2014-2019, followed up to Jan'2022. Candidate predictors included demographics, clinical and laboratory values, and organ failures. We selected predictors in the final model using clinical criteria and externally validated them in two French cohorts. We provided measures of overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. We used multivariable median regression to estimate LoS after adjusting for clinically relevant factors. RESULTS: We included 735 patients, of whom 521 (70.8%) had severe ACLF (120 ACLF-3, external cohort). The median age was 55 years, and 104 with severe ACLF (19.9%) died within 1-year post-LT. Our final model included age >50 years, use of 1/≥2 inotropes, presence of respiratory failure, diabetes mellitus, and BMI (continuous). The c-statistic was 0.72 (derivation) and 0.80 (validation), indicating adequate discrimination and calibration based on the observed/expected probability plots. Age, respiratory failure, BMI, and presence of infection independently predicted median LoS. CONCLUSIONS: The SALT-M score predicts mortality within 1-year after LT in patients with ACLF. The ACLF-LT-LoS score predicted median post-LT stay. Future studies using these scores could assist in determining transplant benefits. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver transplantation (LT) may be the only life-saving procedure available to patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but clinically instability can augment the perceived risk of post-transplant mortality at 1 year. We developed a parsimonious score with clinically and readily available parameters to objectively assess 1-year post-LT survival and predict median length of stay after LT. We developed and externally validated a clinical model called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality score in 521 US patients with ACLF with 2 or ≥3 organ failure(s) and 120 French patients with ACLF grade 3. The c-statistic was 0.72 in the development cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort. We also provided an estimation of the median length of stay after LT in these patients. Our models can be used in discussions on the risks/benefits of LT in patients listed with severe ACLF. Nevertheless, the score is far from perfect and other factors, such as patient's preference and center-specific factors, need to be considered when using these tools.

Radiological-histopathological discordance in patients transplanted for HCC and its impact on post-transplant outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Contrast-enhanced cross-sectional imaging is the cornerstone in the diagnosis, staging, and management of HCC, including eligibility for liver transplantation (LT). Radiological-histopathological discordance may lead to improper staging and may impact patient outcomes. We aimed to assess the radiological-histopathological discordance at the time of LT in HCC patients and its impact on the post-LT outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed further the effect of 6-month waiting policy on the discordance. Using United Network for Organ Sharing-Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (UNOS-OPTN) database, we examined the discordance between pre-LT imaging and explant histopathology for all adult HCC patients who received liver transplants from deceased donors between April 2012 and December 2017. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the impact of discordance on 3-year HCC recurrence and mortality. RESULTS: Of 6842 patients included in the study, 66.7% were within Milan criteria on both imaging and explant histopathology, and 33.3% were within the Milan based on imaging but extended beyond Milan on explant histopathology. Male gender, increasing numbers of tumors, bilobar distribution, larger tumor size, and increasing AFP are associated with increased discordance. Post-LT HCC recurrence and death were significantly higher in patients who were discordant, with histopathology beyond Milan (adj HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.32-2.63 for mortality and 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.70 for recurrence). Graft allocation policy with 6-month waiting time led to increased discordance (OR 1.19, CI 1.01-1.41), although it did not impact post-LT outcome. CONCLUSION: Current practice for staging of HCC based on radiological imaging features alone results in underestimation of HCC burden in one out of three patients with HCC. This discordance is associated with a higher risk of post-LT HCC recurrence and mortality. These patients will need enhanced surveillance to optimize patient selection and aggressive LRT to reduce post-LT recurrence and increase survival.

Gallbladder Wall Thickness as a Non-Invasive Marker for Esophageal Varices: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: The early detection of esophageal varices (EV) is important in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). Non-invasive diagnostic markers are preferred to avoid the cost and potential complications associated with endoscopy. The gallbladder venous blood is drained via small veins which terminate in the portal venous circulation. Therefore, the gallbladder wall thickness (GBWT) can be affected by portal hypertension. We conducted the present study to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive utility of ultrasound GBWT measurement in patients with EV. Methods: We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase for relevant studies up to March 15, 2022, using the keywords "varix", "varices", and "gallbladder" to search the databases by title and abstract. Our meta-analysis was performed using the "meta" package of R software version 4.1.0 and meta-disc for diagnostic test accuracy (DTA). Results: We included 12 studies in our review (N = 1343 participants). The gallbladder thickness was significantly larger in patients with EV compared with the control group (MD = 1.86 mm; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36). The DTA analysis and summary ROC plot showed an AUC of 86% and Q∗ = 0.80. The pooled sensitivity was 73% and the specificity was 86. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that GBWT measurement is a promising predictor of esophageal varices in chronic liver disease patients.

Current Status of Biomarkers and Molecular Diagnostic Tools for Rejection in Liver Transplantation: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Strategies to minimize immune-suppressive medications after liver transplantation are limited by allograft rejection. Biopsy of liver is the current standard of care in diagnosing rejection. However, it adds to physical and economic burden to the patient and has diagnostic limitations. In this review, we aim to highlight the different biomarkers to predict and diagnose acute rejection. We also aim to explore recent advances in molecular diagnostics to improve the diagnostic yield of liver biopsies.

Dawn-to-dusk dry fasting induces anti-atherosclerotic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-tumorigenic proteome in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in subjects with metabolic syndrome.

Background: Metabolic syndrome characterized by abdominal obesity, high blood pressure, elevated fasting glucose and triglyceride levels and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level is associated with pro-inflammatory state, increased risk for atherosclerosis, and multiple cancers. Our previous results on subjects with metabolic syndrome showed that 4-week dawn-to-dusk (sunset) dry fasting resulted in significant changes in the serum proteome and improvement in several metabolic risk factors. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) proteomics is a powerful tool that can provide mechanistic insights into how dawn-to-dusk dry fasting affects protein expression in metabolic pathways at cellular level. In this study, we determined whether dawn-to-dusk dry fasting would induce favorable changes in PBMC proteome in subjects with metabolic syndrome, similar to the changes induced by dawn-to-dusk dry fasting in the same subjects' serum proteome. Methods: We conducted a prospective study on subjects with metabolic syndrome and collected blood specimens before 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting, at the end of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting, and one week after 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting. We performed untargeted proteomics using nano ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to assess the impact of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting on PBMC proteome. Results: There were 14 subjects with metabolic syndrome with a mean age of 59 who fasted from dawn to dusk (strict dry fasting without any liquid or food intake) for more than 14 h daily for 29 days. The quantitative proteome analysis showed that apolipoprotein B (APOB) gene protein products (GP) levels were downregulated and had the most statistical significance of the observed difference at the end of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting (P = 0.008) and one week after 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting (P = 0.0004) compared with the levels before 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting. The comparison between GP levels before and at the end of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting showed an alteration in the expression of genes associated with lipid and atherosclerosis pathway (P = 6.014e-4) and C-type lectin receptor signaling pathway (P = 1.064e-5). The genes that were differentially expressed in the lipid and atherosclerosis pathway were APOB (P = 0.008), CD36 (P = 0.040), CALM1, CALM2, CALM3 (P = 0.015), and HSPA8 (P = 0.047). One of the differentially expressed genes in the C-type lectin receptor signaling pathway was lymphocyte-specific protein 1 (LSP1), which showed an average of 19-fold increase at the end of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting compared with the GP levels before fasting (P = 0.004). Several GPs associated with tumor-suppressor effect (TUBB4B, LSP1, ACTR3B) were upregulated, and GPs associated with tumor-promoter effect (CD36, CALM1, CALM2, CALM3, FLOT2, PPIF) were downregulated at the end of 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting or one week after 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting compared with the GP levels before 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting. Conclusion: Based on our results, we conclude that in subjects with metabolic syndrome, 4-week dawn-to-dusk dry fasting induced anti-atherosclerotic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-tumorigenic PMBC proteome. Randomized, controlled clinical trials are needed to further investigate the effect of dawn-to-dusk dry fasting on subjects with chronic metabolic diseases and metabolic syndrome-induced cancers.

Survival and Causes of Death among Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma in the United States from 2000 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) has shown a substantial increase in mortality globally. On the contrary, perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and distal cholangiocarcinoma have been decreasing. We aim to evaluate the causes of death after iCCA diagnosis. METHODS: We studied 8,962 patients with iCCA diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 in the United States. The standardized mortality ratio for each cause of death was calculated. We used R software version 3.5 to perform Kaplan-Meier survival tests and covariate-adjusted Cox models. RESULTS: Of the 8,962 patients diagnosed with iCCA, 7,335 (81.8%) died during the follow-up period with a mean age of death of 67.88 years. The highest number of deaths (4,786; 65.2%) occurred within the first year following iCCA diagnosis. 4,832 (66%) were from iCCA, 2,063 (28%) were from other cancers, and 440 (6%) were from non-cancer causes mainly cardiovascular disease. The overall mean survival after 1 year of diagnosis was 40.8% (39.8-41.9); however, the overall mean survival was 9.8% (9-10.5) after 5 years of diagnosis. The multivariable analysis showed that age, sex, stage, and management of iCCA have a statistically significant impact on survival. CONCLUSIONS: Following iCCA diagnosis, about 34% died from non-iCCA causes. The most common non-iCCA cancer cause was liver cancer, and cardiovascular disease represents a substantial percentage of non-cancer deaths. Our findings provide insights into how iCCA survivors should be followed up regarding future risks. IMPACT: The management and follow-up should be tailored to the needs of each patient with iCCA.

Hepatitis B virus core-related antigen (HBcrAg) as a prognostic marker for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma: A mini systematic review of the literature.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Previous studies showed that elevated levels of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA and HBsAg are associated with increased HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection. Multiple studies showed that high levels of HBV DNA and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen (HBsAg) are associated with higher HCC risk in CHB patients. Patients treated with antiviral therapy may have undetectable or low levels of HBV DNA and HBsAg loss. However, HCC may develop in some patients with low-level HBV DNA and HBsAg seroconversion. In this study, we evaluated the role of HBcrAg in predicting HBV related HCC development. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using keywords (hepatitis B core-related antigen, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver neoplasm, hepatocellular and hepatic cancer, to identify studies assessing serum level of HBcrAg in patients with CHB and HCC. The search resulted in 184 studies. Seven studies were included: Four of which were retrospective cohort studies, and the rest were prospective cohort, case controls. Six of them reported a higher HBcrAg positivity rate in the HCC group when compared with the HBV DNA assay, yet with similar hazard ratio (HR) in predicting the incidence of HCC. However, four studies found that HBcrAg positivity was an independent risk factor for HCC development with a HR ranging from 3.27 to 7.05. HBV-related HCC has many proposed biomarkers in its prediction, yet our findings revealed HBcrAg to may have superiority over other biomarkers. High quality studies with bigger sample size research is needed to understand the potential role of HBcrAg in CHB induced HCC.

Significant improvements, but consistent disparities in survival for African Americans after liver transplantation.

Despite improvements in survival across races in the past 20 years, African Americans have worse liver transplant outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This study aims at quantifying the change in disparities between African Americans and other races in survival after OLT. We retrospectively analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database for patient data for candidates who received a liver transplant between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2017. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression indicated similar decreases in mortality over time for each race with a decrease in mortality for African Americans: 2010-2012 (HR = .930), 2012-2015 (HR = .882), and 2015-2017 (HR = .883) when compared to 2007-2010. Risk of mortality for African Americans compared to Caucasians varied across the 4 eras: 2007-2010 (HR = 1.083), 2010-2012 (HR = 1.090), 2012-2015 (HR = 1.070), and 2015-2017 (HR = 1.125). While African Americans have seen increases in survival in the past decade, a similar increase in survival for other races leaves a significant survival disparity in African Americans.

Association of dietary fat intake and hepatocellular carcinoma among US adults.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of dietary fat consumption in the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. We investigated the associations of total fat and fatty acids with risk of HCC among US adults in a hospital-based case-control study. METHODS: We analyzed data from 641 cases and 1034 controls recruited at MD Anderson Cancer Center during 2001-2018. Cases were new patients with a pathologically or radiologically confirmed diagnosis of HCC; controls were cancer-free spouses of patients with cancers other than gastrointestinal, lung, liver, or head and neck. Cases and controls were frequency-matched by age and sex. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for major HCC risk factors, including hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infection. RESULTS: Monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) intake was inversely associated with HCC risk (highest vs. lowest tertile: OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.33-0.72). Total polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake was directly associated with HCC risk (highest vs. lowest tertile: OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.23-2.70). Omega-6 PUFA was directly associated with HCC risk (highest vs. lowest tertile: OR 2.29; 95% CI, 1.52-3.44). Long-chain omega-3 PUFA (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid) intake was also inversely associated with HCC risk (highest vs. lowest tertile: OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.33-0.70). No association was observed for saturated fat and HCC risk. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a direct association of omega-6 PUFA intake with HCC and an inverse association of MUFA and long-chain omega-3 PUFA intake with HCC.

Dietary Patterns and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk among US Adults.

The objective of this study was to assess the association between dietary patterns and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among US adults in a hospital-based case-control study. We analyzed data from 641 cases and 1002 controls recruited at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center during 2001-2018. Cases were patients with a pathologically or radiologically confirmed new diagnosis of HCC; controls were cancer-free spouses of patients with cancers other than gastrointestinal, lung, liver, or head and neck cancer. Cases and controls were frequency-matched by age and sex. Dietary patterns were identified by principal component analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for major HCC risk factors, including hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infection. A vegetable-based dietary pattern was inversely associated with HCC risk (highest compared with lowest tertile: OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.46-0.94). A Western diet pattern was directly associated with HCC risk (highest compared with lowest tertile: OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.19-2.69). These findings emphasize the potential role of dietary intake in HCC prevention and clinical management.