Difficult Toddler Temperament - Prevalence and Associated Factors at 18-Month Follow-Up of a Birth Cohort.

Purpose: Difficult temperament coupled with other risk factors may lead to mental health problems in childhood and have long-lasting effects in adolescence and adulthood. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of parental perception of difficult temperament in toddlers and identify significant factors associated with individual and family-level sociodemographic risk factors. Patients and Methods: The prevalence of parental perception of difficult temperament was derived from items in the 18-month follow-up questionnaire within the Watch Me Grow (WMG) longitudinal birth cohort study in a multicultural and socioeconomically disadvantaged community in Sydney, Australia. Data was available for 500 children and their parents. Descriptive analysis was used to calculate the participant characteristics and the prevalence of parental perception of difficult temperament, whereas multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess significant risk factors associated with a difficult temperament. Results: Parental perception of difficult temperament in the cohort was 7.3% (n = 492). Findings of the multivariable logistic regression showed that screen time >2 hours a day (AOR 2.43, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.9), child not being read to (AOR 3.92, 95% CI: 1.8, 8.5), and family history of mental health problems (AOR 2.69, 95% CI: 1.1, 6.5) significantly increased the odds of having a difficult temperament. Conclusion: Toddlers with difficult temperament were less likely to have received stimulatory experiences, and their families were more likely to be under greater stress. The findings emphasize the importance of parental support and anticipatory guidance in promoting nurturing care to facilitate child health and development, particularly in disadvantaged communities.

Outcomes of atypical (B3) core biopsy lesions diagnosed across BreastScreen NSW, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Atypical or B3 lesions comprise a heterogeneous group of uncertain malignant potential. B3 lesions diagnosed on core biopsy are usually recommended for diagnostic open biopsy. Identifying factors which could allow conservative management of B3 lesions would be helpful in avoiding unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the upgrade rate to malignancy for B3 core biopsy lesions and to compare characteristics of lesions which were malignant and benign at excision. METHOD: This retrospective study used data from BreastScreen New South Wales (NSW), Australia, of women who were diagnosed with B3 lesions on needle biopsy from 2011 to 2019. RESULTS: During the study period, 1927 B3 lesions were included. The upgrade rate to malignancy was 26.4%. Of the malignant lesions on excision, 29.6% were invasive and 69.2% were in situ. The rates of upgrade to invasive cancer and DCIS varied substantially with the core biopsy lesion type. Lesions with atypia on core biopsy had significantly higher upgrade rates to malignancy at 34.7% compared to 13.6% for lesions without atypia (p < 0.0001). Lesions with malignant pathology were significantly larger than those with benign pathology (difference = 5.1 mm (95% CI 2.7-7.5 mm), p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The overall upgrade rate of B3 lesions to malignancy was 26.4%. The majority of the lesions were upgraded to DCIS instead of invasive cancer. Upgrade rates varied by lesion type. Lesions with atypia had significantly higher upgrade rates to cancer compared to lesions without atypia. Malignant lesions were significantly larger than benign lesions.

Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5).

BACKGROUND: The acute health effects of short-term (hours to days) exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5) have been well documented; however, the global mortality burden attributable to this exposure has not been estimated. We aimed to estimate the global, regional, and urban mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM2·5 and the spatiotemporal variations in this burden from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: We combined estimated global daily PM2·5 concentrations, annual population counts, country-level mortality rates, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions to estimate the mortality attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure from 2000 to 2019, in the continental regions and in 13 189 urban centres worldwide at a spatial resolution of 0·1°â€ˆ× 0·1°. We tested the robustness of our mortality estimates with different theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, lag effects, and exposure-response functions. FINDINGS: Approximately 1 million (95% CI 690 000-1·3 million) premature deaths per year from 2000 to 2019 were attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure, representing 2·08% (1·41-2·75) of total global deaths or 17 (11-22) premature deaths per 100 000 population. Annually, 0·23 million (0·15 million-0·30 million) deaths attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure were in urban areas, constituting 22·74% of the total global deaths attributable to this cause and accounting for 2·30% (1·56-3·05) of total global deaths in urban areas. The sensitivity analyses showed that our worldwide estimates of mortality attributed to short-term PM2·5 exposure were robust. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to PM2·5 contributes a substantial global mortality burden, particularly in Asia and Africa, as well as in global urban areas. Our results highlight the importance of mitigation strategies to reduce short-term exposure to air pollution and its adverse effects on human health. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Outdoor artificial light at night and incident cardiovascular disease in adults: A national cohort study across China.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) become a major public health concern. Evidence concerning the effects of outdoor artificial light at night (ALAN) on CVD in adults is scarce. We aimed to investigate the extent to which outdoor ALAN could affect the risk of CVD over a exposure range. Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, a population-based longitudinal study, launched in 2011-2012 and follow up till 2018, covering 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across mainland China. This study included 14,097 adults aged ≥45 years. Outdoor ALAN exposure (in nanowatts per centimeters squared per steradian) within 500 m of each participant's baseline residence was obtained from satellite image data. CVD was defined from medical diagnosis. The population was divided into three groups based on outdoor ALAN exposure from low to high. Cox regression model was used to estimate the association between outdoor ALAN exposure and incident CVD with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 57.6 (9.1) years old and 49.3 % were males. Outdoor ALAN exposure of study participants ranged from 0.02 to 39.79 nW/cm2/sr. During 83,033 person-years of follow-up, 2190 (15.5 %) cases of CVD were identified. Both low (HR: 1.21; 95 % CI: 1.02-1.43) and high (HR: 1.23; 95 % CI: 1.04-1.46) levels of outdoor ALAN exposure group were associated with higher risk of CVD compared with intermediate levels of outdoor ALAN exposure group. Body mass index was a significant effect modifier in the association between outdoor ALAN and risk of CVD, with stronger effects among those who was overweight or obese. The findings of this study suggest that low and high outdoor ALAN exposure were associated with a higher risk for CVD. More attention should be given to the cardiovascular effects associated with outdoor ALAN exposure.

Visit-to-Visit Blood Pressure Variability in Cardiovascular Disease.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), independently of mean blood pressure (BP). However, in real world clinical practice, this phenomenon is frequently considered as random fluctuation. This review aimed to investigate the differences among studies investigating visit-to-visit BPV and CVD using electronic health record (EHR) and clinical trial data. Our review suggests that BP values in clinical trial data are derived using a stricter protocol compared to EHR data. Furthermore, there was no consensus on metrics used in estimation of BPV.

Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to ambient PM2.5 from 1990 to 2019: An analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

Information on the spatio-temporal patterns of the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) caused by ambient ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the global level is needed to prioritize the control of ambient air pollution and prevent the burden of IHD. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 provides data on IHD attributable to ambient PM2.5. The IHD burden and mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5 were analyzed by year, age, gender, socio-demographic index (SDI) level, geographical region and country. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to estimate the temporal trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the ASMR and ASDR for ambient PM2.5-related IHD tended to level off generally, with EAPC of -0.03 (95% CI: -0.06, 0.12) and 0.3 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.37), respectively. In the past 30 years, there were obvious differences in the trend of burden change among different regions. A highest increased burden was estimated in low-middle SDI region (EAPC of ASMR: 3.73 [95% CI: 3.56, 3.9], EAPC of ASDR: 3.83 [95% CI: 3.64, 4.02]). In contrast, the burden in high SDI region (EAPC of ASMR: -4.48 [95% CI: -4.6, -4.35], EAPC of ASDR: -3.98 [95% CI: -4.12, -3.85]) has declined most significantly. Moreover, this burden was higher among men and older populations. EAPCs of the ASMR (R = -0.776, p < 0.001) and ASDR (R = -0.781, p < 0.001) of this burden had significant negative correlations with the countries' SDI level. In summary, although trends in the global burden of IHD attributable to ambient PM2.5 are stabilizing, but this burden has shifted from high SDI countries to middle and low SDI countries, especially among men and elderly populations. To reduce this burden, the air pollution management prevention need to be further strengthened, especially among males, older populations, and middle and low SDI countries.

Using individual approach to examine the association between urban heat island and preterm birth: A nationwide cohort study in China.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that maternal exposure to heat might increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), but no study has investigated the effect from urban heat island (UHI) at individual level. AIMS: Our study aimed to investigate the association between individual UHI exposure and PTB. METHODS: We utilized data from the ongoing China Birth Cohort Study (CBCS), encompassing 103,040 birth records up to December 2020. UHI exposure was estimated for each participant using a novel individual assessment method based on temperature data and satellite-derived land cover data. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate the association between UHI exposure and PTB, adjusting for potential confounders including maternal characteristics and environmental factors. RESULTS: Consistent and statistically significant associations between UHI exposure and PTB were observed up to 21 days before birth. A 5 °C increment in UHI exposure was associated with 27 % higher risk (OR = 1.27, 95 % confident interval: 1.20, 1.34) of preterm birth in lagged day 1. Stratified analysis indicated that the associations were more pronounced in participants who were older, had higher pre-pregnancy body mass index level, of higher socioeconomic status and living in greener areas. CONCLUSION: Maternal exposure to UHI was associated with increased risk of PTB. These findings have implications for developing targeted interventions for susceptible subgroups of pregnant women. More research is needed to validate our findings of increased risk of preterm birth due to UHI exposure among pregnant women.

Prioritizing a research agenda on built environments and physical activity: a twin panel Delphi consensus process with researchers and knowledge users.

BACKGROUND: The growth of urban dwelling populations globally has led to rapid increases of research and policy initiatives addressing associations between the built environment and physical activity (PA). Given this rapid proliferation, it is important to identify priority areas and research questions for moving the field forward. The objective of this study was to identify and compare research priorities on the built environment and PA among researchers and knowledge users (e.g., policy makers, practitioners). METHODS: Between September 2022 and April 2023, a three-round, modified Delphi survey was conducted among two independent panels of international researchers (n = 38) and knowledge users (n = 23) to identify similarities and differences in perceived research priorities on the built environment and PA and generate twin 'top 10' lists of the most important research needs. RESULTS: From a broad range of self-identified issues, both panels ranked in common the most pressing research priorities including stronger study designs such as natural experiments, research that examines inequalities and inequities, establishing the cost effectiveness of interventions, safety and injuries related to engagement in active transportation (AT), and considerations for climate change and climate adaptation. Additional priorities identified by researchers included: implementation science, research that incorporates Indigenous perspectives, land-use policies, built environments that support active aging, and participatory research. Additional priorities identified by knowledge users included: built environments and PA among people living with disabilities and a need for national data on trip chaining, multi-modal travel, and non-work or school-related AT. CONCLUSIONS: Five common research priorities between the two groups emerged, including (1) to better understand causality, (2) interactions with the natural environment, (3) economic evaluations, (4) social disparities, and (5) preventable AT-related injuries. The findings may help set directions for future research, interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaborations, and funding opportunities.

Heat illness presentations to emergency departments in Western Sydney: surveillance for environmental, personal and behavioural risk factors.

OBJECTIVE: To pilot surveillance to describe environmental, personal and behavioural risk factors for people presenting to hospital emergency departments (EDs) with heat illness. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case series and telephone interview study of people presenting to EDs across South Western Sydney, Western Sydney and Nepean Blue Mountains Local Health Districts with heat illness over the 2017/18 and 2018/19 summer periods (1 December to 28 February). We used the Public Health Rapid Emergency Disease Syndromic Surveillance (PHREDSS) 'heat problems' syndrome to identify people with heat illness and medical records to find contact details. We developed a detailed questionnaire instrument to guide the telephone interview. RESULTS: A total of 129 individuals presented with 'heat problems' (57 in 2017/18 and 72 in 2018/19). The median age was 44 years (range 1-89 years). Most attended hospitals via the NSW Ambulance Service (58%) or private car (40%). Of the total, 53% were classified as triage category 3 (potentially life-threatening), 27% as category 4 (potentially serious) and 16% as category 2 (imminently life-threatening). The main supplementary codes were heat exhaustion (35%), heat syncope (39%), and heat stroke (30%). The majority were discharged from the emergency department after completing treatment (73%), with 21% requiring admission. A total of 38 follow-up interviews were completed (29% response rate). Almost all individuals were exposed to heat outside their home environment: 11 (29%) were engaged in paid work, 5 (13%) in outdoor housework, and 10 (26%) in outdoor recreational activities. CONCLUSION: Our pilot surveillance study successfully collected home, local environment and behavioural risk factors on a small cohort presenting with 'heat problems' to EDs in Western Sydney during the summer months. Most were exposed to heat outdoors while engaged in work or recreation outside the home, and were preventable.

Acute air pollution and temperature exposure as independent and joint triggers of spontaneous preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia: a time-to-event analysis.

Introduction: Exposure to high ambient temperatures and air pollution has been shown to increase the risk of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). Less clear are the effects of cold and the joint effects of air pollution and temperature. Methods: Using a Cox proportional hazard regression model, we assessed the risk of independent and combined short-term exposure to ambient daily mean temperature and PM2.5 associated with sPTB in the last week before delivery on overall sPTB (weeks 23-36) and three subtypes: extremely sPTB, very sPTB, and moderate-to-late sPTB for a birth cohort of 1,318,570 births from Australia (Jan 2001-Dec 2019), while controlling for chronic exposure (i.e., throughout pregnancy except the last week before delivery) to PM2.5 and temperature. The temperature was modeled as a natural cubic spline, PM2.5 as a linear term, and the interaction effect was estimated using a multiplicative term. For short-term exposure to temperature hazard ratios reported are relative to the median temperature (18.1°C). Results: Hazard ratios at low temperature [5th percentile(11.5°C)] were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.00), 1.08 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.4), 0.87 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.06), and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.06) and greater for high temperature [95th percentile (24.5°C)]: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.28), 1.27 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.5) and 1.05 (1.00, 1.11), respectively, for overall, extremely, very, and moderate-to-late sPTBs. While chronic exposure to PM2.5 had adverse effects on sPTB, short-term exposure to PM2.5 appeared to have a negative association with all types of sPTB, with hazard ratios ranging from 0.86 (95th CI: 0.80, 0.94) to 0.98 (95th CI: 0.97, 1.00) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5. Discussion: The risk of sPTB was found to increase following acute exposure to hot and cold ambient temperatures. Earlier sPTB subtypes seemed to be the most vulnerable. This study adds to the evidence that short-term exposure to ambient cold and heat and longer term gestational exposure to ambient PM2.5 are associated with an elevated risk of sPTB.

Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia: challenges, adaptation strategies, and policy gaps.

Climate change presents a major public health concern in Australia, marked by unprecedented wildfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Despite these challenges, Australia's response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. This study illustrates the spatiotemporal patterns of selected climate-related environmental extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts) across Australia during the past two decades, and summarizes climate adaptation measures and actions that have been taken by the national, state/territory, and local governments. Our findings reveal significant impacts of climate-related environmental extremes on the health and well-being of Australians. While governments have implemented various adaptation strategies, these plans must be further developed to yield concrete actions. Moreover, Indigenous Australians should not be left out in these adaptation efforts. A collaborative, comprehensive approach involving all levels of government is urgently needed to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the health impacts of climate change.

General practitioners' perspectives regarding early developmental surveillance for autism within the australian primary healthcare setting: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Significant challenges remain in the early identification of child developmental disabilities in the community. Implementing supports and services early in the life course has been shown to promote positive developmental outcomes for children at high likelihood of developmental disabilities, including autism. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, this study seeks to examine and compare the perspectives and experiences of Australian general practitioners (GPs) in relation to a digital developmental surveillance program for autism and usual care pathway, in general practice clinics. METHODS: A qualitative research methodology with semi-structured interviews and thematic inductive analysis underpinned by grounded theory was utilised. All GPs from South Western Sydney (NSW) and Melbourne (Victoria) who participated in the main program ("GP Surveillance for Autism") were invited to the interview. GPs who provided consent were interviewed either over online or in-person meeting. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and coded using NVivo12 software. Inductive interpretive approach was adopted and data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Twenty-three GPs across the two sites (NSW: n = 11; Victoria: n = 12) agreed to be interviewed; data saturation had reached following this number of participants. Inductive thematic coding and analysis yielded eight major themes and highlighted common enablers such as the role of GPs in early identification and subsequent supports, enhanced communication between clinicians/professionals, relationship-building with patients, and having standardised screening tools. Specific facilitators to the feasibility and acceptability of a digital screening program for the early identification of developmental disabilities, including the early signs of autism, and encouraging research and education for GPs. However, several practical and socioeconomic barriers were identified, in addition to limited knowledge and uptake of child developmental screening tools as well as COVID-19 lockdown impacts. Common and specific recommendations involve supporting GPs in developmental/paediatrics training, streamlined screening process, and funding and resources in the primary healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted the need for practice and policy changes, including further training of GPs alongside sufficient time to complete developmental checks and appropriate financial remuneration through a Medicare billing item. Further research is needed on implementation and scale up of a national surveillance program for early identification of developmental disabilities, including autism.

Individual and joint associations of long-term exposure to air pollutants and cardiopulmonary mortality: a 22-year cohort study in Northern China.

Background: Evidence on the associations between long-term exposure to multiple air pollutants and cardiopulmonary mortality is limited, especially for developing regions with higher pollutant levels. We aimed to characterise the individual and joint (multi-pollutant) associations of long-term exposure to air pollutants with cardiopulmonary mortality, and to identify air pollutant that primarily contributes to the mortality risk. Methods: We followed 37,442 participants with a mean age of 43.5 years in four cities in northern China (Tianjin, Shenyang, Taiyuan, and Rizhao) from January 1998 to December 2019. Annual particulate matter (PM) with diameters ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), ≤10 µm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using daily average values from satellite-derived machine learning models and monitoring stations. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the individual association between air pollutants and mortality from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), non-malignant respiratory diseases (RDs) and lung cancer, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. Effect modifications by age, sex, income and education level were also examined. Quantile-based g-Computation integrated with time-to-event data was additionally applied to evaluate the co-effects and the relative weight of contributions for air pollutants. Findings: During 785,807 person-years of follow-up, 5812 (15.5%) died from non-accidental causes, among which 2932 (7.8%) were from all CVDs, 479 (1.3%) from non-malignant RDs, and 552 (1.4%) from lung cancer. Long-term exposure to PM10 (mean [baseline]: 136.5 µg/m3), PM2.5 (mean [baseline]: 70.2 µg/m3), SO2 (mean [baseline]: 113.0 µg/m3) and NO2 (mean [baseline]: 39.2 µg/m3) were adversely and consistently associated with all mortality outcomes. A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with higher mortality from non-accidental causes (hazard ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.23), CVDs (1.23; 1.19-1.28), non-malignant RDs (1.37; 1.25-1.49) and lung cancer (1.14; 1.05-1.23). A monotonically increasing curve with linear or supra-linear shape with no evidence of a threshold was observed for the exposure-response relationship of mortality with individual or joint exposure to air pollutants. PM2.5 consistently contributed most to the elevated mortality risks related to air pollutant mixture, followed by SO2 or PM10. Interpretation: There was a strong and positive association of long-term individual and joint exposure to PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 with mortalities from non-accidental causes, CVDs, non-malignant RDs and lung cancer in high-exposure settings, with PM2.5 potentially being the main contributor. The shapes of associations were consistent with a linear or supra-linear exposure-response relationship, with no lower threshold observed within the range of concentrations in this study. Funding: National Key Research and Development Program of China, the China Scholarship Council, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province.

Association between Residential Greenness and Human Microbiota: Evidence from Multiple Countries.

BACKGROUND: Greenness, referring to a measurement of the density of vegetated land (e.g., gardens, parks, grasslands), has been linked with many human health outcomes. However, the evidence on greenness exposure and human microbiota remains limited, inconclusive, drawn from specific regions, and based on only modest sample size. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to study the association between greenness exposure and human microbial diversity and composition in a large sample across 34 countries and regions. METHODS: We explored associations between residential greenness and human microbial alpha-diversity, composition, and genus abundance using data from 34 countries. Greenness exposure was assessed using the normalized difference vegetation index and the enhanced vegetation index mean values in the month before sampling. We used linear regression models to estimate the association between greenness and microbial alpha-diversity and tested the effect modification of age, sex, climate zone, and pet ownership of participants. Differences in microbial composition were tested by permutational multivariate analysis of variance based on Bray-Curtis distance and differential taxa were detected using the DESeq2 R package between two greenness exposure groups split by median values of greenness. RESULTS: We found that higher greenness was significantly associated with greater richness levels in the palm and gut microbiota but decreased evenness in the gut microbiota. Pet ownership and climate zone modified some associations between greenness and alpha-diversity. Palm and gut microbial composition at the genus level also varied by greenness. Higher abundances of the genera Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium, and lower abundances of the genera Anaerotruncus and Streptococcus, were observed in people with higher greenness levels. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest that residential greenness was associated with microbial richness and composition in the human skin and gut samples, collected across different geographic contexts. Future studies may validate the observed associations and determine whether they correspond to improvements in human health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12186.

A Research Translation, Implementation and Impact Strategy for the Australian Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) Research Network.

Healthy Environments And Lives (HEAL) is the Australian national research network established to support improvements to health, the Australian health system, and the environment in response to the unfolding climate crisis. The HEAL Network comprises researchers, community members and organisations, policymakers, practitioners, service providers, and other stakeholders from diverse backgrounds and sectors. HEAL seeks to protect and improve public health, reduce health inequities and inequalities, and strengthen health system sustainability and resilience in the face of environmental and climate change, all with a commitment to building on the strengths, knowledge, wisdom, and experience of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, culture, and communities. Supporting applied research that can inform policy and practice, and effective research translation, implementation, and impact are important goals across the HEAL Network and essential to achieve its intended outcomes. To aid translation approaches, a research translation, implementation, and impact strategy for the HEAL Network was developed. The strategy has been created to inform and guide research translation across HEAL, emphasising communication, trust, partnerships, and co-design with communities and community organisations as well as the decision-makers responsible for public policies and programs. Development of the strategy was guided by research translation theory and practice and the Health in All Policies and Environment in All Policies frameworks. As described in this paper, the strategy is underpinned by a set of principles and outlines preliminary actions which will be further expanded over the course of the HEAL Network's activities. Through these actions, the HEAL Network is well-positioned to ensure successful research translation and implementation across its program of work.

Association between long-term green space exposure and mortality in China: A difference-in-differences analysis of national data in 2000, 2010 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Effects of green space on human health have been well-documented in western, high-income countries. Evidence for similar effects in China is limited. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms linking green space and mortality are yet to be established. We therefore conducted a nation-wide study to assess the association between green space and mortality in China using a difference-in-difference approach, which applied a causal framework and well controlled unmeasured confounding. In addition, we explored whether air pollution and air temperature could mediate the association. METHODS: In this analysis, we collected data on all-cause mortality and sociodemographic characteristics for each county in China from the 2000 and 2010 censuses and the 2020 Statistical Yearbook. Green space exposure was assessed using county-level normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the percentage of green space (forest, grasslands, shrub land and wetland). We applied a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the association between green space and mortality. We also performed mediation analysis (by air pollution and air temperature). RESULTS: Our sample consisted of 2726 counties in 2000 and 2010 as well as 1432 counties in 2019. In the 2000 versus 2019 comparison, a 0.1 unit increase in NDVI was associated with a 2.4 % reduction in mortality [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.4-4.3 %], and a 10 % increase in percentage of green space was associated with a 4.7 % reduction (95 % CI 0-9.2 %) in mortality. PM2.5 and air temperature mediated 0.3 % to 12.3 % of the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Living in greener counties may be associated with lower risk of mortality in China. These findings could indicate the potential of a population-level intervention to reduce mortality in China, which has important public health implications at the county level.

Using machine learning to predict cardiovascular risk using self-reported questionnaires: Findings from the 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning has been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods for risk prediction model development. We aimed to develop machine learning-based risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality and hospitalisation for ischemic heart disease (IHD) using self-reported questionnaire data. METHODS: The 45 and Up Study was a retrospective population-based study in New South Wales, Australia (2005-2009). Self-reported healthcare survey data on 187,268 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease was linked to hospitalisation and mortality data. We compared different machine learning algorithms, including traditional classification methods (support vector machine (SVM), neural network, random forest and logistic regression) and survival methods (fast survival SVM, Cox regression and random survival forest). RESULTS: A total of 3687 participants experienced cardiovascular mortality and 12,841 participants had IHD-related hospitalisation over a median follow-up of 10.4 years and 11.6 years respectively. The best model for cardiovascular mortality was a Cox survival regression with L1 penalty at a re-sampled case/non-case ratio of 0.3 achieved by under-sampling of the non-cases. This model had the Uno's and Harrel's concordance indexes of 0.898 and 0.900 respectively. The best model for IHD hospitalisation was a Cox survival regression with L1 penalty at a re-sampled case/non-case ratio of 1.0 with Uno's and Harrel's concordance indexes of 0.711 and 0.718 respectively. CONCLUSION: Machine learning-based risk prediction models developed using self-reported questionnaire data had good prediction performance. These models may have the potential to be used in initial screening tests to identify high-risk individuals before undergoing costly investigation.

Effect of extreme temperatures on asthma hospital visits: Modification by event characteristics and healthy behaviors.

Although ambient temperature has been linked to asthma exacerbation, impacts associated with extreme temperature events remain unclear. This study aims to identify the events characteristics that elevate risk of asthma hospital visits, and to assess whether healthy behavior changes due to the COVID-19 prevention and control policy may modify the relationships. Data of asthma hospital visits from all medical facilities in Shenzhen, China during 2016-2020 were assessed in relation to extreme temperature events using a distributed lag model. Stratified analysis was conducted by gender, age and hospital department to identify susceptible populations. Through events defined by various duration days and temperature thresholds, we explored the modification by events intensity, length, occurrence time and healthy behaviors. The cumulative relative risk of asthma during heat waves compared to other days was 1.06 (95%CI: 1.00-1.13) and for cold spells was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.05-1.30), and that of males and school-aged children were generally higher than other sub-groups. There were significant effects of heat waves and cold spells on asthma hospital visits when the mean temperature was above 90th percentile (30 °C) and below 10th percentile (14 °C) respectively, and the relative risks were higher when events lasted longer, became stronger, occurred in daytime and in early summer or winter. During the healthy behaviors maintaining period, the risk of heat waves increased whilst the risk of cold spells reduced. Extreme temperatures may pose considerable impact on asthma and the health effect can be modified by the event characteristics and anti-epidemic healthy behaviors. Strategies of asthma control should consider the heightened threats of the intense and frequent extreme temperature events in the context of climate change.

Health and economic benefits of meeting WHO air quality guidelines, Western Pacific Region.

Objective: To quantify the number of avoidable annual deaths and associated economic benefits from meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for ambient concentrations for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for Member States of the WHO Western Pacific Region. Methods: Using the AirQ+ software, we performed a quantitative health impact assessment comparing country-level PM2.5 concentrations with the 2005 and 2021 air quality guidelines recommended maximum concentrations of 10 and 5 µg/m3, respectively. We obtained PM2.5 data from the WHO Global Health Observatory (latest available year 2016), and population and mortality estimates from the United Nations World Population Prospects database for the latest 5-year period available (2015-2019), which we averaged to 1-year estimates. A risk estimate for all-cause mortality, based on a meta-analysis, was embedded within AirQ+ software. Our economic assessment used World Bank value of a statistical life adjusted to country-specific gross domestic product (latest available year 2014). Findings: Data were complete for 21 of 27 Member States. If these countries achieved the 2021 guidelines for PM2.5, an estimated 3.1 million deaths would be avoided annually, which are 0.4 million more deaths avoided than meeting the 2005 guidelines. China would avoid the most deaths per 100 000 population (303 deaths) and Brunei Darussalam the least (5 deaths). The annual economic benefit per capita ranged from 5781 United States dollars (US$) in Singapore to US$ 143 in Solomon Islands. Conclusion: Implementing effective measures to reduce PM2.5 emissions would save a substantial number of lives and money across the Region.

Do neighbourhood traffic-related air pollution and socio-economic status moderate the associations of the neighbourhood physical environment with cognitive function? Findings from the AusDiab study.

Characteristics of the neighbourhood environment, including the built and natural environment, area-level socio-economic status (SES) and air pollution, have been linked to cognitive health. However, most studies have focused on single neighbourhood characteristics and have not considered the extent to which the effects of environmental factors may interact. We examined the associations of measures of the neighbourhood built and natural environment, area-level SES and traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) with two cognitive function domains (memory and processing speed), and the extent to which area-level SES and TRAP moderated the associations. We used cross-sectional data from the AusDiab3 study, an Australian cohort study of adults (mean age: 61 years) in 2011-12 (N = 4141) for which geocoded residential addresses were available. Spatial data were used to create composite indices of built environment complexity (population density, intersection density, non-commercial land use mix, commercial land use) and natural environment (parkland and blue spaces). Area-level SES was obtained from national census indices and TRAP was based on estimates of annual average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Confounder-adjusted generalised additive mixed models were used to estimate the independent associations of the environmental measures with cognitive function and the moderating effects of area-level SES and TRAP. The positive associations between built environment complexity and memory were stronger in those living in areas with higher SES and lower NO2 concentrations. A positive association between the natural environment and memory was found only in those living in areas with lower NO2 concentrations and average or below-average SES. Built environment complexity and the natural environment were positively related to processing speed. Complex urban environments and access to nature may benefit cognitive health in ageing populations. For higher-order cognitive abilities, such as memory, these positive effects may be stronger in areas with lower levels of TRAP.