Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world.

The industrialization of agriculture has led to an increasing dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Hence, shocks in the availability of agricultural inputs can be devastating to food crop production. There is also a pressure to decrease the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in many areas. However, the combined impact of the agricultural input shocks on crop yields has not yet been systematically assessed globally. Here we modelled the effects of agricultural input shocks using a random forest machine learning algorithm. We show that shocks in fertilizers cause the most drastic yield losses. Under the scenario of 50% shock in all studied agricultural inputs, global maize production could decrease up to 26%, and global wheat production up to 21%, impacting particularly the high-yielding 'breadbasket' areas of the world. Our study provides insights into global food system resilience and can be useful for preparing for potential future shocks or agricultural input availability decreases at local and global scales.

Decreasing dietary nitrogen consumption improves wastewater treatment efficiency and carbon footprint.

This article aimed to connect protein consumption with the nitrogen load to wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Finland. The influence of the changes in nitrogen consumption on the WWTP environmental footprint was estimated using process simulation. As the main result, a connection was found between nitrogen loads from food consumption and the incoming load to a WWTP. This was done by analysing protein consumption data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and incoming nitrogen load data from the Finnish environmental institute, SYKE. The impact of nitrogen consumption was estimated using different diet scenarios. Decreasing dietary nitrogen consumption by 16-24% could decrease nitrous oxide emissions by 16-24% and aeration energy (AE) consumption by 6-11%. An increase in dietary nitrogen consumption of 6-42% could increase AE consumption by 2-14% when effluent requirements were met. When considering the environmental impact of this increased aeration, it corresponds to an increase of 2-16%. Furthermore, nitrous oxide emissions could rise by 6-42% This information can be valuable to WWTPs and even consumers for influencing incoming nitrogen loads.

Global trends in grassland carrying capacity and relative stocking density of livestock.

Although the role of livestock in future food systems is debated, animal proteins are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands are a key source of primary productivity for livestock, and feed-food competition is often limited on such land. Previous research on the potential for sustainable grazing has focused on restricted geographical areas or does not consider inter-annual changes in grazing opportunities. Here, we developed a robust method to estimate trends and interannual variability (IV) in global livestock carrying capacity (number of grazing animals a piece of land can support) over 2001-2015, as well as relative stocking density (the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity [CC]) in 2010. We first estimated the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on global grasslands based on the MODIS Net Primary Production product. This was then used to calculate livestock carrying capacities using slopes, forest cover, and animal forage requirements as restrictions. We found that globally, CC decreased on 27% of total grasslands area, mostly in Europe and southeastern Brazil, while it increased on 15% of grasslands, particularly in Sudano-Sahel and some parts of South America. In 2010, livestock forage requirements exceeded forage availability in northwestern Europe, and southern and eastern Asia. Although our findings imply some opportunities to increase grazing pressures in cold regions, Central Africa, and Australia, the high IV or low biomass supply might prevent considerable increases in stocking densities. The approach and derived open access data sets can feed into global food system modelling, support conservation efforts to reduce land degradation associated with overgrazing, and help identify undergrazed areas for targeted sustainable intensification efforts or rewilding purposes.

Food system by-products upcycled in livestock and aquaculture feeds can increase global food supply.

Many livestock and aquaculture feeds compete for resources with food production. Increasing the use of food system by-products and residues as feed could reduce this competition. We gathered data on global food system material flows for crop, livestock and aquaculture production, focusing on feed use and the availability of by-products and residues. We then analysed the potential of replacing food-competing feedstuff-here cereals, whole fish, vegetable oils and pulses that account for 15% of total feed use-with food system by-products and residues. Considering the nutritional requirements of food-producing animals, including farmed aquatic species, this replacement could increase the current global food supply by up to 13% (10-16%) in terms of kcal and 15% (12-19%) in terms of protein content. Increasing the use of food system by-products as feed has considerable potential, particularly when combined with other measures, in the much-needed transition towards circular food systems.

Incorporation of novel foods in European diets can reduce global warming potential, water use and land use by over 80.

Global food systems face the challenge of providing healthy and adequate nutrition through sustainable means, which is exacerbated by climate change and increasing protein demand by the world's growing population. Recent advances in novel food production technologies demonstrate potential solutions for improving the sustainability of food systems. Yet, diet-level comparisons are lacking and are needed to fully understand the environmental impacts of incorporating novel foods in diets. Here we estimate the possible reductions in global warming potential, water use and land use by replacing animal-source foods with novel or plant-based foods in European diets. Using a linear programming model, we optimized omnivore, vegan and novel food diets for minimum environmental impacts with nutrition and feasible consumption constraints. Replacing animal-source foods in current diets with novel foods reduced all environmental impacts by over 80% and still met nutrition and feasible consumption constraints.

Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis.

In spite of the high importance of forests, global forest loss has remained alarmingly high during the last decades. Forest loss at a global scale has been unveiled with increasingly finer spatial resolution, but the forest extent and loss in protected areas (PAs) and in large intact forest landscapes (IFLs) have not so far been systematically assessed. Moreover, the impact of protection on preserving the IFLs is not well understood. In this study we conducted a consistent assessment of the global forest loss in PAs and IFLs over the period 2000-2012. We used recently published global remote sensing based spatial forest cover change data, being a uniform and consistent dataset over space and time, together with global datasets on PAs' and IFLs' locations. Our analyses revealed that on a global scale 3% of the protected forest, 2.5% of the intact forest, and 1.5% of the protected intact forest were lost during the study period. These forest loss rates are relatively high compared to global total forest loss of 5% for the same time period. The variation in forest losses and in protection effect was large among geographical regions and countries. In some regions the loss in protected forests exceeded 5% (e.g. in Australia and Oceania, and North America) and the relative forest loss was higher inside protected areas than outside those areas (e.g. in Mongolia and parts of Africa, Central Asia, and Europe). At the same time, protection was found to prevent forest loss in several countries (e.g. in South America and Southeast Asia). Globally, high area-weighted forest loss rates of protected and intact forests were associated with high gross domestic product and in the case of protected forests also with high proportions of agricultural land. Our findings reinforce the need for improved understanding of the reasons for the high forest losses in PAs and IFLs and strategies to prevent further losses.