Measurement and Modeling of Ship-Related Ultrafine Particles and Secondary Organic Aerosols in a Mediterranean Port City.

Maritime transport emerges as a major source of ultrafine particle (UFP) pollution in coastal regions with consequences for the health of people living in port cities. Inhalation of UFPs can cause inflammation and oxidative stress, which are starting points for further diseases. In addition to primary particles, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) may form through the photo-oxidation of volatile organic compounds emitted in ship exhaust. The characterization of size-segregated and chemical properties of particles is essential for assessing the health implications related to shipping. We applied a coupled regional-local chemistry transport modeling system to study the effects of ship emissions on atmospheric concentrations of UFP and SOA in the Mediterranean port city Marseille (France), which is characterized by the combination of high port activity, industrialized emissions, and active photochemistry in summer. Our results show that the average potential impact from local shipping in the port area was 6-9% for SOA and 27-51% for total particle number concentration in July 2020. The estimated oxidative potential of daily mean particulate organic matter related to shipping was lower than the oxidative potential reported for heavy fuel oil (HFO). The lower oxidative potential in this study is very likely due to the low share of ships using HFO during stopover.

Cumulative environmental risk assessment of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from ship activities in ports.

Marine environmental risk assessments rarely consider the cumulative risk from multiple contaminants and sources. Ships give rise to a range of contaminants, originating from different onboard sources, resulting in contaminant loads to the marine environment. Here, the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM), in combination with the hydrodynamic and chemical fate model MAMPEC, was used to calculate loads and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, in four ports. PECs were compared to the predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) to assess environmental risk from the different onboard sources, both separately and cumulatively. The results show that three out of four ports were subject to unacceptable risk. This study highlights the importance of accounting for multiple contaminant sources when assessing the marine environmental risks of shipping and challenges the suitability of the proposed new international guidelines on how to assess risk of scrubber water discharge.

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol.

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses1. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction2, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties3. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions4. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks5,6. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

Underwater noise emissions from ships during 2014-2020.

This paper reports trends in the input of underwater noise source energy emission from global shipping, based on bottom-up modeling of individual ships. In terms of energy, we predict the doubling of global shipping noise emissions every 11.5 years, on average, but there are large regional differences. Shipping noise emissions increase rapidly in Arctic areas and the Norwegian Sea. The largest contributors are the containerships, dry bulk and liquid tanker vessels which emit 75% of the underwater shipping noise source energy. The COVID-19 pandemic changed vessel traffic patterns and our modeling indicates a reduction of -6% in global shipping noise source energy in the 63 Hz ⅓ octave band. This reduction was largest in the Greenland Sea, the Coastal Waters of Southeast Alaska and British Columbia as well as the Gulf of California, temporarily disrupting the increasing pre-pandemic noise emission trend. However, in some sea areas, such as the Indian Ocean, Yellow Sea and Eastern China Sea the emitted noise source energy was only slightly reduced. In global scale, COVID-19 pandemic reduced the underwater shipping noise emissions close to 2017 levels, but it is expected that the increasing trend of underwater noise emissions will continue when the global economy recovers.

Metal and PAH loads from ships and boats, relative other sources, in the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sea is a sensitive environment that is affected by chemical pollution derived from multiple natural and anthropogenic sources. The overall aim of this study was to estimate the load of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from shipping and leisure boating, relative other sources, to the Baltic Sea and to identify possible measures that could lead to major reductions in the loads of hazardous substances from maritime shipping and leisure boating. The use of copper-based antifouling paints, and operation of scrubbers in open loop mode, were the two most dominant identified sources of hazardous substances to the Baltic Sea. Open loop scrubbers accounted for 8.5 % of the total input of anthracene to the sea. More than a third of the total load of copper can be reduced if copper-free antifouling paints or other biocide-free antifouling strategies are used on ships and leisure boats.

Real-world particle emissions and secondary aerosol formation from a diesel oxidation catalyst and scrubber equipped ship operating with two fuels in a SECA area.

SOx Emissions Control Areas (SECAs) have been established to reduce harmful effects of atmospheric sulfur. Typical technological changes for ships to conform with these regulations have included the combustion of low-sulfur fuels or installment of SOx scrubbers. This paper presents experimental findings from high-end real-time measurements of gaseous and particulate pollutants onboard a Roll-on/Roll-off Passenger ship sailing inside a SECA equipped with a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) and a scrubber as the exhaust aftertreatment. The ship operates between two ports and switched off the SOx scrubbing when approaching one of the ports and used low-sulfur fuel instead. Measurement results showed that the scrubber effectively reduced SO2 concentrations with over 99% rate. In terms of fuel, the engine-out PM was higher for heavy fuel oil than for marine gas oil. During open sea cruising (65% load) the major chemical components in PM having emission factor of 1.7 g kgfuel-1 were sulfate (66%) and organics (30%) whereas the contribution of black carbon (BC) in PM was low (∼4%). Decreased engine load on the other hand increased exhaust concentrations of BC by a factor exceeding four. As a novel finding, the secondary aerosol formation potential of the emitted exhaust measured with an oxidation flow reactor and an aerosol mass spectrometer was found negligible. Thus, it seems that either DOC, scrubber, or their combination is efficient in eliminating SOA precursors. Overall, results indicate that in addition to targeting sulfur and NOx emissions from shipping, future work should focus on mitigating harmful particle emissions.

Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping.

Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.

Modelling spatial dispersion of contaminants from shipping lanes in the Baltic Sea.

Major sources of pollution from shipping to marine environments are antifouling paint residues and discharges of bilge, black, grey and ballast water and scrubber discharge water. The dispersion of copper, zinc, naphthalene, pyrene, and dibromochloromethane have been studied using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model, the General Estuarine Transport Model, and the Eulerian tracer transport model in the Baltic Sea in 2012. Annual loads of the contaminants ranged from 10-2 tons for pyrene to 100 s of tons for copper. The dispersion of the contaminants is determined by the surface kinetic energy and vertical stratification at the location of the discharge. The elevated concentration of the contaminants at the surface persists for about two-days and the contaminants are dispersed over the spatial scale of 10-60 km. The Danish Sounds, the southwestern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland are under the heaviest pressure of shipborne contaminants in the Baltic Sea.

Evaluation of Methane Emissions Originating from LNG Ships Based on the Measurements at a Remote Marine Station.

We analyzed pollution plumes originating from ships using liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel. Measurements were performed at a station located on the Utö island in the Baltic Sea during 2015-2021 when vessels passed the station along an adjacent shipping lane and the wind direction allowed the measurements. The ratio of the measured concentration peaks ΔCH4/ΔCO2 ranged from 1% to 9% and from 0.1% to 0.5% for low and high pressure dual fuel engines, respectively. The ratio of the measured concentration peaks of ΔNOx/ΔCO2 varied between 0.5‰ and 8.7‰, which was not explained by engine type. The results were consistent with previously measured on-board or test-bed values for the corresponding ratios of emissions. While the methane emissions from high pressure dual fuel engines were found to fulfill the goal of reducing the climatic impacts of shipping, the emissions originating from low pressure dual fuel engines were found to be substantially high, with a potential for increased climatic impacts compared with using traditional marine fuels. Taking only the global warming potential into account, we can suggest a limit value for the methane emissions; the ratio of the emissions ΔCH4/ΔCO2 originating from LNG powered ships should not exceed 1.4%.

Estimating the health and economic burden of shipping related air pollution in the Iberian Peninsula.

Air pollution is the leading cause of the global burden of disease from the environment, entailing substantial economic consequences. International shipping is a significant source of NOx, SO2, CO and PM, which can cause known negative health impacts. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the health impacts and the associated external costs of ship-related air pollution in the Iberian Peninsula for 2015. Moreover, the impact of CAP2020 regulations on 2015 emissions was studied. Log-linear functions based on WHO-HRAPIE relative risks for PM2.5 and NO2 all-cause mortality and morbidity health end-points, and integrated exposure-response functions for PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, were used to calculate the excess burden of disease. The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to NO2 ship-related emissions was similar to those of PM2.5 ship-related emissions. Estimated all-cause premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 ship-related emissions represented an average increase of 7.7% for the Iberian Peninsula when compared to the scenario without shipping contribution. Costs of around 9 100 million € yr-1 (for value of statistical life approach - VSL) and 1 825 million € yr-1 (for value of life year approach - VOLY) were estimated for PM and NO2 all-cause burden of disease. For PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, a cost of around 3 475 million € yr-1 (for VSL approach) and 851 million € yr-1 (for VOLY approach) were estimated. Costs due to PM and NO2 all-cause burden represented around 0.72% and 0.15% of the Iberian Peninsula gross domestic product in 2015, respectively for VSL and VOLY approaches. For PM2.5 cause-specific mortality, costs represented around 0.28% and 0.06%, respectively, for VSL and VOLY approaches. If CAP2020 regulations had been applied in 2015, around 50% and 30% respectively of PM2.5 and NO2 ship-related mortality would been avoided. These results show that air pollution from ships has a considerable impact on health and associated costs affecting the Iberian Peninsula.

Assessing the costs and environmental benefits of IMO regulations of ship-originated SOx and NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea.

To assess the value of the environmental benefits of the Sulphur Emission regulation (SECA) that came into force in 2015, changes in depositions of SOx and NOx from ship exhaust gas emissions were modelled and monetized for the Baltic Sea region for the years 2014 and 2016. During this period, the total deposition of SOx in the study area decreased by 7.3%. The decrease in ship-originated SOx deposition from 38 kt to 3.4 kt (by over 88%) was translated into a monetary value for the ecosystem impacts of nearly 130 million USD, according to the EcoValue08 model. This is less than the modelled health benefits, but it is not insignificant. For NOx, there was no decreasing trend. The exceedance of the critical loads of SOx and NOx was also estimated. The effect of Baltic shipping on the exceedance of critical loads of acidification after SECA is very small, but Baltic shipping still has a considerable effect on the exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication.

Shipping Remains a Globally Significant Source of Anthropogenic PN Emissions Even after 2020 Sulfur Regulation.

Shipping is the main source of anthropogenic particle emissions in large areas of the globe, influencing climate, air quality, and human health in open seas and coast lines. Here, we determined, by laboratory and on-board measurements of ship engine exhaust, fuel-specific particle number (PN) emissions for different fuels and desulfurization applied in shipping. The emission factors were compared to ship exhaust plume observations and, furthermore, exploited in the assessment of global PN emissions from shipping, utilizing the STEAM ship emission model. The results indicate that most particles in the fresh ship engine exhaust are in ultrafine particle size range. Shipping PN emissions are localized, especially close to coastal lines, but significant emissions also exist on open seas and oceans. The global annual PN produced by marine shipping was 1.2 × 1028 (±0.34 × 1028) particles in 2016, thus being of the same magnitude with total anthropogenic PN emissions in continental areas. The reduction potential of PN from shipping strongly depends on the adopted technology mix, and except wide adoption of natural gas or scrubbers, no significant decrease in global PN is expected if heavy fuel oil is mainly replaced by low sulfur residual fuels. The results imply that shipping remains as a significant source of anthropogenic PN emissions that should be considered in future climate and health impact models.

Health Impact of Air Pollution from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Effects of Different Spatial Resolutions in Sweden.

In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM2.5) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden's 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM2.5 exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure-response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM2.5 exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m3) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m3) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM2.5 dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM2.5 from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.

Environmental impacts of grey water discharge from ships in the Baltic Sea.

Discharge of grey water from ships is today unregulated in most sea areas, including the Baltic Sea. Annually, an estimated 5.5 million m3 grey water is emitted to the Baltic Sea with largest contribution from RoPax (4.25 million m3) and cruise ships (0.65 million m3). In total 44 different contaminants in grey water was identified and sorted into the sub categories organic compounds (28) and metals (16). Zinc and copper had the highest average concentrations with yearly inputs of 2.8 tons (zinc) and 1.5 tons (copper). 159 tons of nitrogen and 26.4 tons of phosphorus were estimated to be discharged to the Baltic Sea annually. An environmental risk assessment of contaminants, performed at a shipping lane in the Baltic Sea, showed the risk for adverse effects from grey water to be low. Nitrogen and phosphorus input from grey water contributes to 0.25% of the exceedance of, for the Baltic Sea set, eutrophication target.

Modeling of the Concentrations of Ultrafine Particles in the Plumes of Ships in the Vicinity of Major Harbors.

Marine traffic in harbors can be responsible for significant atmospheric concentrations of ultrafine particles (UFPs), which have widely recognized negative effects on human health. It is therefore essential to model and measure the time evolution of the number size distributions and chemical composition of UFPs in ship exhaust to assess the resulting exposure in the vicinity of shipping routes. In this study, a sequential modelling chain was developed and applied, in combination with the data measured and collected in major harbor areas in the cities of Helsinki and Turku in Finland, during winter and summer in 2010-2011. The models described ship emissions, atmospheric dispersion, and aerosol dynamics, complemented with a time-microenvironment-activity model to estimate the short-term UFP exposure. We estimated the dilution ratio during the initial fast expansion of the exhaust plume to be approximately equal to eight. This dispersion regime resulted in a fully formed nucleation mode (denoted as Nuc2). Different selected modelling assumptions about the chemical composition of Nuc2 did not have an effect on the formation of nucleation mode particles. Aerosol model simulations of the dispersing ship plume also revealed a partially formed nucleation mode (Nuc1; peaking at 1.5 nm), consisting of freshly nucleated sulfate particles and condensed organics that were produced within the first few seconds. However, subsequent growth of the new particles was limited, due to efficient scavenging by the larger particles originating from the ship exhaust. The transport of UFPs downwind of the ship track increased the hourly mean UFP concentrations in the neighboring residential areas by a factor of two or more up to a distance of 3600 m, compared with the corresponding UFP concentrations in the urban background. The substantially increased UFP concentrations due to ship traffic significantly affected the daily mean exposures in residential areas located in the vicinity of the harbors.

Shipborne nutrient dynamics and impact on the eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sea is a severely eutrophicated sea-area where intense shipping as an additional nutrient source is a potential contributor to changes in the ecosystem. The impact of the two most important shipborne nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, on the overall nutrient-phytoplankton-oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea was determined by using the coupled physical and biogeochemical model system General Estuarine Transport Model-Ecological Regional Ocean Model (GETM-ERGOM) in a cascade with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We compared two nutrient scenarios in the Baltic Sea: with (SHIP) and without nutrient input from ships (NOSHIP). The model uses the combined nutrient input from shipping-related waste streams and atmospheric depositions originating from the ship emission and calculates the effect of excess nutrients on the overall biogeochemical cycle, primary production, detritus formation and nutrient flows. The shipping contribution is about 0.3% of the total phosphorus and 1.25-3.3% of the total nitrogen input to the Baltic Sea, but their impact to the different biogeochemical variables is up to 10%. Excess nitrogen entering the N-limited system of the Baltic Sea slightly alters certain pathways: cyanobacteria growth is compromised due to extra nitrogen available for other functional groups while the biomass of diatoms and especially flagellates increases due to the excess of the limiting nutrient. In terms of the Baltic Sea ecosystem functioning, continuous input of ship-borne nitrogen is compensated by steady decrease of nitrogen fixation and increase of denitrification, which results in stationary level of total nitrogen content in the water. Ship-borne phosphorus input results in a decrease of phosphate content in the water and increase of phosphorus binding to sediments. Oxygen content in the water decreases, but reaches stationary state eventually.

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs.

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Risk assessment of bilge water discharges in two Baltic shipping lanes.

Environmental concentrations and effects of bilge water contaminants in two Baltic Sea areas were estimated from modelling of discharge rates and analytical data on bilge water from seven ships. Biodegradation of bilge water oil was accounted for and annual water concentrations were estimated to peak in late spring, which coincides with the beginning of a period with extensive biological activities in the sea. Concentrations on bilge water metals were calculated both as water concentrations and as the annual contribution of metals to sediments. The predicted bilge water concentrations of oil and metal in the marine environment were estimated to be 4 to 8 orders of magnitude lower than reported toxic concentrations. However, available toxicity data are based on short term exposure and there is to date limited information on toxic effects of the small but chronically elevated contaminant concentrations derived from bilge water discharge and other operational shipping activities.

Costs and benefits of low-sulphur fuel standard for Baltic Sea shipping.

The maximum allowable fuel sulphur content for shipping in the Baltic Sea dropped from 1%S to 0.1%S in 1 January 2015. We provide a cost-benefit analysis of the sulphur reduction policy in the Baltic Sea Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA). We calculated the abatement costs based on shipowners' optimal decision-making in choosing between low-sulphur fuel and a sulphur scrubber, and the benefits were modelled through a high-resolution impact pathway analysis, which took into account the formation and dispersion of the emissions, and considered the positive health impacts resulting from lowered ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Our basic result indicates that for the Baltic Sea only, the latest sulphur regulation is not cost-effective. The expected annual cost is roughly €465 M and benefit 2200 saved Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) or monetized €105 M. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the benefits yet have a potential to exceed the costs. The analysis neither takes into account the acidifying impact of sulphur nor the impact North Sea shipping has on the cost-benefit ratio. Lastly, a similar approach is found highly recommendable to study the implications of the upcoming Tier III NOx standard for shipping.

A comprehensive inventory of the ship traffic exhaust emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009.

This study addresses the exhaust emissions of CO2, NO(x), SO(x), CO, and PM(2.5) originated from Baltic Sea shipping in 2006-2009. Numerical results have been computed using the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model. This model is based on the messages of the automatic identification system (AIS), which enable the positioning of ships with a high spatial resolution. The NO(x) emissions in 2009 were approximately 7 % higher than in 2006, despite the economic recession. However, the SO(x) emissions in 2009 were approximately 14 % lower, when compared to those in 2006, mainly caused by the fuel requirements of the SO(x) emission control area (SECA) which became effective in May 2006, but affected also by changes in ship activity. Results are presented on the differential geographic distribution of shipping emissions before (Jan-April 2006) and after (Jan-April 2009) the SECA regulations. The predicted NO(x) emissions in 2009 substantially exceeded the emissions in 2006 along major ship routes and at numerous harbors, mostly due to the continuous increase in the number of small vessels that use AIS transmitters. Although the SO(x) emissions have been reduced in 2009 in most major ship routes, these have increased in the vicinity of some harbors and on some densely trafficked routes. A seasonal variation of emissions is also presented, as well as the distribution of emissions in terms of vessel flag state, type, and weight.