Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems.

OBJECTIVES: Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies. METHODS: We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019). RESULTS: Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]). CONCLUSION: We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.

Viral Etiology, Clinical Features and Antibiotic Use in Children <5 Years of Age in the Gambia Presenting With Influenza-like Illness.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge regarding the prevalence, clinical features and etiology of pediatric influenza-like illness (ILI) remains limited in African settings. Furthermore, it is likely that many children presenting with ILI receive antibiotics unnecessarily. More data are required to develop antimicrobial stewardship practice and guide effective vaccine strategies. We undertook a 1-year prospective study of ILI in the Gambia. METHODS: Children <5 years of age presenting with ILI from March 2018 to March 2019 were recruited. Clinical and antibiotic prescribing data were collected. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected and analyzed for 12 respiratory viruses using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: From a total of 735 ILI episodes, 530 (72.1%) nasopharyngeal swabs were positive for ≥1 virus. Of these, 36.7% were positive for rhinovirus, 14.7% for respiratory syncytial virus, 8.4% for influenza and 7.2% for human metapneumovirus. Compared with children <6 months of age, influenza was more common in 6- to 23-month-old children [odd ratio (OR): 5.68; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.72-18.76; P = 0.004]. Respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus were associated with low peripheral oxygen saturations (OR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.23-3.69; P = 0.007; and OR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.13-5.27; P = 0.023, respectively). Antibiotics were prescribed in 78.3% of all ILI cases. CONCLUSIONS: A broad range of viruses are responsible for pediatric ILI in the Gambia. Refined treatment guidelines, improved diagnostic capacity and vaccines to prevent respiratory viruses will all play a role in reducing antimicrobial use for these cases.

Prevalence of rickets-like bone deformities in rural Gambian children.

The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of childhood rickets-like bone deformity in a rural region of West Africa where rickets has been reported in association with a low calcium intake. A population-based survey of children aged 0.5-17.9 years living in the province of West Kiang, The Gambia was conducted in 2007. 6221 children, 92% of those recorded in a recent census, were screened for physical signs of rickets by a trained survey team with clinical referral of suspected cases. Several objective measures were tested as potential screening tools. The prevalence of bone deformity in children <18.0 years was 3.3%. The prevalence was greater in males (M = 4.3%, F = 2.3%, p < 0.001) and in children <5.0 years (5.7%, M = 8.3%, F = 2.9%). Knock-knee was more common (58%) than bow-leg (31%) or windswept deformity (9%). Of the 196 examined clinically, 36 were confirmed to have a deformity outside normal variation (47% knock-knee, 53% bow-leg), resulting in more conservative prevalence estimates of bone deformity: 0.6% for children <18.0 years (M = 0.9%, F = 0.2%), 1.5% for children < 5.0 years (M = 2.3%, F = 0.6%). Three of these children (9% of those with clinically-confirmed deformity, 0.05% of those screened) had active rickets on X-ray at the time of medical examination. This emphasises the difficulties in comparing prevalence estimates of rickets-like bone deformities from population surveys and clinic-based studies. Interpopliteal distance showed promise as an objective screening measure for bow-leg deformity. In conclusion, this population survey in a rural region of West Africa with a low calcium diet has demonstrated a significant burden of rickets-like bone deformity, whether based on physical signs under survey conditions or after clinical examination, especially in boys < 5.0 years.