Applicability of the universal thermal climate index for predicting the outbreaks of respiratory tract infections: a mathematical modeling approach.

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are one of the most frequent reasons for medical consultations. As air temperature decreases, but also in connection with other meteorological parameters, evident seasonal fluctuations in the number of consultations for RTI can be observed. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a complex meteorological index derived from an analysis of human thermal balance that depends on air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed. Our aims were to check if this index, although never used before for that purpose, is an adequate tool for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI prevalence. This study is a retrospective analysis of patients' consultations with general practitioners in the period of 2012-2015 (453,674 records) recorded in the city of Olsztyn (Poland), which is characterized by a cold climate type (Dfb). The values of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, wind speed, and UTCI were used for a statistical analysis and a mathematical analysis of curve fitting in order to determine correlations between analyzed meteorological parameters and a number of medical consultations for RTI. Analysis of the number of medical consultations for RTI revealed an evident seasonal pattern in a 4-year observation period, with a strong inverse correlation between the number of patients with RTI and the UTCI. A statistically significant increase in the number of patients with RTI appeared when the UTCI decreased, especially when it reached the classes of strong cold stress and very strong cold stress. In conclusion, the UTCI is a valuable predictive parameter for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI cases. Its decrease may initiate a seasonal increased prevalence. This effect is strongest about the 10th day following a change in the thermal climate conditions and is not continuous. A larger number of consultations for RTI after weekends and holidays (the Monday effect) may blur the results of statistical analyses.

Centipede (Chilopoda) richness and diversity in the Bug River valley (Eastern Poland).

The main aim of the survey was to describe the diversity and richness of Chilopoda in the selected area of the Bug River valley. The study sites were located in two regions differing in the shape of the valley, the presence of thermophilous habitats and the size of riparian forests. Pitfall traps were used as a sampling method. As a result, 444 specimens belonging to 12 centipede species of two orders - Geophilomorpha (four species) and Lithobiomorpha (eight species) were caught. Lithobius (Monotarsobius) curtipes C.L.Koch, 1847, Pachymeriumferrugineum (C.L.Koch, 1835), Lamyctes (Lamyctes) emarginatus (Newport, 1844) and Lithobius (Monotarsobius) dudichi Loksa, 1947 were the most common and the most numerous species. Of particular note is Lithobiusdudichi found in Poland for the first time and previously known based on a single specimen. Two to 10 Chilopoda species were found in each habitat under investigation. The greatest species richness was found in thermophilous thickets (10 species), sandy grasslands (eight), xerothermic grasslands (eight) and mesic meadows (six). The fewest number of species (two) was found in rushes at oxbows and in wet meadows. We found differences in the species composition and the number of Chilopoda between the lower (102 specimens, six species) and the middle (324 specimens, 11 species) section of the river valley. Our results confirm the need to protect xerothermic habitats, unique almost throughout entire Central Europe, which due to their distribution and their small area covered are fairly easily subject to the process of destruction.