A worldwide perspective on large carnivore attacks on humans.

Large carnivores have long fascinated human societies and have profound influences on ecosystems. However, their conservation represents one of the greatest challenges of our time, particularly where attacks on humans occur. Where human recreational and/or livelihood activities overlap with large carnivore ranges, conflicts can become particularly serious. Two different scenarios are responsible for such overlap: In some regions of the world, increasing human populations lead to extended encroachment into large carnivore ranges, which are subject to increasing contraction, fragmentation, and degradation. In other regions, human and large carnivore populations are expanding, thus exacerbating conflicts, especially in those areas where these species were extirpated and are now returning. We thus face the problem of learning how to live with species that can pose serious threats to humans. We collected a total of 5,440 large carnivore (Felidae, Canidae, and Ursidae; 12 species) attacks worldwide between 1950 and 2019. The number of reported attacks increased over time, especially in lower-income countries. Most attacks (68%) resulted in human injuries, whereas 32% were fatal. Although attack scenarios varied greatly within and among species, as well as in different areas of the world, factors triggering large carnivore attacks on humans largely depend on the socioeconomic context, with people being at risk mainly during recreational activities in high-income countries and during livelihood activities in low-income countries. The specific combination of local socioeconomic and ecological factors is thus a risky mix triggering large carnivore attacks on humans, whose circumstances and frequencies cannot only be ascribed to the animal species. This also implies that effective measures to reduce large carnivore attacks must also consider the diverse local ecological and social contexts.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe.

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Widespread, long-term admixture between grey wolves and domestic dogs across Eurasia and its implications for the conservation status of hybrids.

Hybridisation between a domesticated species and its wild ancestor is an important conservation problem, especially if it results in the introgression of domestic gene variants into wild species. Nevertheless, the legal status of hybrids remains unregulated, partially because of the limited understanding of the hybridisation process and its consequences. The occurrence of hybridisation between grey wolves and domestic dogs is well documented from different parts of the wolf geographic range, but little is known about the frequency of hybridisation events, their causes and the genetic impact on wolf populations. We analysed 61K SNPs spanning the canid genome in wolves from across Eurasia and North America and compared that data to similar data from dogs to identify signatures of admixture. The haplotype block analysis, which included 38 autosomes and the X chromosome, indicated the presence of individuals of mixed wolf-dog ancestry in most Eurasian wolf populations, but less admixture was present in North American populations. We found evidence for male-biased introgression of dog alleles into wolf populations, but also identified a first-generation hybrid resulting from mating between a female dog and a male wolf. We found small blocks of dog ancestry in the genomes of 62% Eurasian wolves studied and melanistic individuals with no signs of recent admixed ancestry, but with a dog-derived allele at a locus linked to melanism. Consequently, these results suggest that hybridisation has been occurring in different parts of Eurasia on multiple timescales and is not solely a recent phenomenon. Nevertheless, wolf populations have maintained genetic differentiation from dogs, suggesting that hybridisation at a low frequency does not diminish distinctiveness of the wolf gene pool. However, increased hybridisation frequency may be detrimental for wolf populations, stressing the need for genetic monitoring to assess the frequency and distribution of individuals resulting from recent admixture.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution - Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca).

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.

Using spatial patterns in illegal wildlife uses to reveal connections between subsistence hunting and trade.

Although most often considered independently, subsistence hunting, domestic trade, and international trade as components of illegal wildlife use (IWU) may be spatially correlated. Understanding how and where subsistence and commercial uses may co-occur has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We analyzed patterns in the joint geographical distribution of illegal commercial and subsistence use of multiple wildlife species in Venezuela and evaluated whether available data were sufficient to provide accurate estimates of the magnitude, scope, and detectability of IWU. We compiled records of illegal subsistence hunting and trade from several sources and fitted a random-forest classification model to predict the spatial distribution of IWUs. From 1969 to 2014, 404 species and 8,340,921 specimens were involved in IWU, for a mean extraction rate of 185,354 individuals/year. Birds were the most speciose group involved (248 spp.), but reptiles had the highest extraction rates (126,414 individuals/year vs. 3,133 individuals/year for birds). Eighty-eight percent of international trade records spatially overlapped with domestic trade, especially in the north and along the coast but also in western inland areas. The distribution of domestic trade was broadly distributed along roads, suggesting that domestic trade does not depend on large markets in cities. Seventeen percent of domestic trade records overlapped with subsistence hunting, but the spatial distribution of this overlap covered a much larger area than between commercial uses. Domestic trade seems to respond to demand from rural more than urban communities. Our approach will be useful for understanding how IWU works at national scales in other parts of the world.

Dietary differentiation and the evolution of population genetic structure in a highly mobile carnivore.

Recent studies on highly mobile carnivores revealed cryptic population genetic structures correlated to transitions in habitat types and prey species composition. This led to the hypothesis that natal-habitat-biased dispersal may be responsible for generating population genetic structure. However, direct evidence for the concordant ecological and genetic differentiation between populations of highly mobile mammals is rare. To address this we analyzed stable isotope profiles (δ(13)C and δ(15)N values) for Eastern European wolves (Canis lupus) as a quantifiable proxy measure of diet for individuals that had been genotyped in an earlier study (showing cryptic genetic structure), to provide a quantitative assessment of the relationship between individual foraging behavior and genotype. We found a significant correlation between genetic distances and dietary differentiation (explaining 46% of the variation) in both the marginal test and crucially, when geographic distance was accounted for as a co-variable. These results, interpreted in the context of other possible mechanisms such as allopatry and isolation by distance, reinforce earlier studies suggesting that diet and associated habitat choice are influencing the structuring of populations in highly mobile carnivores.

A genome-wide perspective on the evolutionary history of enigmatic wolf-like canids.

High-throughput genotyping technologies developed for model species can potentially increase the resolution of demographic history and ancestry in wild relatives. We use a SNP genotyping microarray developed for the domestic dog to assay variation in over 48K loci in wolf-like species worldwide. Despite the high mobility of these large carnivores, we find distinct hierarchical population units within gray wolves and coyotes that correspond with geographic and ecologic differences among populations. Further, we test controversial theories about the ancestry of the Great Lakes wolf and red wolf using an analysis of haplotype blocks across all 38 canid autosomes. We find that these enigmatic canids are highly admixed varieties derived from gray wolves and coyotes, respectively. This divergent genomic history suggests that they do not have a shared recent ancestry as proposed by previous researchers. Interspecific hybridization, as well as the process of evolutionary divergence, may be responsible for the observed phenotypic distinction of both forms. Such admixture complicates decisions regarding endangered species restoration and protection.

Analyses of least cost paths for determining effects of habitat types on landscape permeability: wolves in Poland.

Determining ecological corridors is crucial for conservation efforts in fragmented habitats. Commonly employed least cost path (LCP) analysis relies on the underlying cost matrix. By using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, we minimized the problems connected with subjective cost assessment or the use of presence/absence data. We used data on the wolf presence/absence in Poland to identify LCPs connecting patches of suitable wolf habitat, factors that influence patch occupancy, and compare LCPs between different genetic subpopulations. We found that a lower proportion of cities and roads surrounds the most densely populated patches. Least cost paths between areas where little dispersal takes place (i.e., leading to unpopulated patches or between different genetic subpopulations) ran through a higher proportion of roads and human settlements. They also crossed larger maximal distances over deforested areas. We propose that, apart from supplying the basis for direct conservation efforts, LCPs can be used to determine what factors might facilitate or hinder dispersal by comparing different subsets of LCPs. The methods employed can be widely applicable to gain more in-depth information on potential dispersal barriers for large carnivores.

Phylogeographic history of grey wolves in Europe.

BACKGROUND: While it is generally accepted that patterns of intra-specific genetic differentiation are substantially affected by glacial history, population genetic processes occurring during Pleistocene glaciations are still poorly understood. In this study, we address the question of the genetic consequences of Pleistocene glaciations for European grey wolves. Combining our data with data from published studies, we analysed phylogenetic relationships and geographic distribution of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes for 947 contemporary European wolves. We also compared the contemporary wolf sequences with published sequences of 24 ancient European wolves. RESULTS: We found that haplotypes representing two haplogroups, 1 and 2, overlap geographically, but substantially differ in frequency between populations from south-western and eastern Europe. A comparison between haplotypes from Europe and other continents showed that both haplogroups are spread throughout Eurasia, while only haplogroup 1 occurs in contemporary North American wolves. All ancient wolf samples from western Europe that dated from between 44,000 and 1,200 years B.P. belonged to haplogroup 2, suggesting the long-term predominance of this haplogroup in this region. Moreover, a comparison of current and past frequencies and distributions of the two haplogroups in Europe suggested that haplogroup 2 became outnumbered by haplogroup 1 during the last several thousand years. CONCLUSIONS: Parallel haplogroup replacement, with haplogroup 2 being totally replaced by haplogroup 1, has been reported for North American grey wolves. Taking into account the similarity of diets reported for the late Pleistocene wolves from Europe and North America, the correspondence between these haplogroup frequency changes may suggest that they were associated with ecological changes occurring after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Genome-wide SNP and haplotype analyses reveal a rich history underlying dog domestication.

Advances in genome technology have facilitated a new understanding of the historical and genetic processes crucial to rapid phenotypic evolution under domestication. To understand the process of dog diversification better, we conducted an extensive genome-wide survey of more than 48,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in dogs and their wild progenitor, the grey wolf. Here we show that dog breeds share a higher proportion of multi-locus haplotypes unique to grey wolves from the Middle East, indicating that they are a dominant source of genetic diversity for dogs rather than wolves from east Asia, as suggested by mitochondrial DNA sequence data. Furthermore, we find a surprising correspondence between genetic and phenotypic/functional breed groupings but there are exceptions that suggest phenotypic diversification depended in part on the repeated crossing of individuals with novel phenotypes. Our results show that Middle Eastern wolves were a critical source of genome diversity, although interbreeding with local wolf populations clearly occurred elsewhere in the early history of specific lineages. More recently, the evolution of modern dog breeds seems to have been an iterative process that drew on a limited genetic toolkit to create remarkable phenotypic diversity.

A heuristic two-dimensional presentation of microsatellite-based data applied to dogs and wolves.

Methods based on genetic distance matrices usually lose information during the process of tree-building by converting a multi-dimensional matrix into a phylogenetic tree. We applied a heuristic method of two-dimensional presentation to achieve a better resolution of the relationship between breeds and individuals investigated. Four hundred and nine individuals from nine German dog breed populations and one free-living wolf population were analysed with a marker set of 23 microsatellites. The result of the two-dimensional presentation was partly comparable with and complemented a model-based analysis that uses genotype patterns. The assignment test and the neighbour-joining tree based on allele sharing estimate allocated 99% and 97% of the individuals according to their breed, respectively. The application of the two-dimensional presentation to distances on the basis of the proportion of shared alleles resulted in comparable and further complementary insight into inferred population structure by multilocus genotype data. We expect that the inference of population structure in domesticated species with complex breeding histories can be strongly supported by the two-dimensional presentation based on the described heuristic method.

Ecological factors influence population genetic structure of European grey wolves.

Although the mechanisms controlling gene flow among populations are particularly important for evolutionary processes, they are still poorly understood, especially in the case of large carnivoran mammals with extensive continuous distributions. We studied the question of factors affecting population genetic structure in the grey wolf, Canis lupus, one of the most mobile terrestrial carnivores. We analysed variability in mitochondrial DNA and 14 microsatellite loci for a sample of 643 individuals from 59 localities representing most of the continuous wolf range in Eastern Europe. We tested an array of geographical, historical and ecological factors to check whether they may explain genetic differentiation among local wolf populations. We showed that wolf populations in Eastern Europe displayed nonrandom spatial genetic structure in the absence of obvious physical barriers to movement. Neither topographic barriers nor past fragmentation could explain spatial genetic structure. However, we found that the genetic differentiation among local populations was correlated with climate, habitat types, and wolf diet composition. This result shows that ecological processes may strongly influence the amount of gene flow among populations. We suggest natal-habitat-biased dispersal as an underlying mechanism linking population ecology with population genetic structure.

Wolf predation and snow cover as mortality factors in the ungulate community of the Bialowieza National Park, Poland.

Wolf-ungulate interactions were studied in the pristine deciduous and mixed forests of the Bialowieza National Park in 1985-1989. The study period included two severe and two mild winters. The community of ungulates inhabiting Bialowieza National Park consisted of red deer Cervus elaphus, 55% of all ungulates; wild boar Sus scrofa, 42%; and roe deer Capreolus capreolus, moose Alces alces, and European bison Bison bonasus, about 1% each. The average size of red deer groups increased from 2.7 (SD 2.35) in spring and summer to 6.9 (SD 6.84) in autumn and winter. In winter the group size of red deer was positively correlated with the depth of snow cover and negatively correlated with the mean daily temperature. Average group size of wild boar did not change significantly between seasons; it was 6.8 (SD 5.16) in spring and summer and 5.7 (SD 4.67) in autumn and winter. Analysis of 144 wolf scats showed that wolves preyed selectively on red deer. In October-April, Cervidae (mostly red deer) constituted 91% of biomass consumed by wolves, while wild boar made up only 8%. In May-September deer formed 77% of prey biomass, and the share of wild boar increased to 22%. In all seasons of the year wolves selected juveniles from deer and boar populations: 61% of red deer and 94% of wild boar of determined age recovered from wolves' scats were young <1 year old. Analysis of 117 carcasses of ungulates found in Bialowieza National Park showed that predation was the predominant mortality factor for red deer (40 killed, 10 dead from causes other than predation) and roe deer (4 killed, none dead). Wild boar suffered most from severe winter conditions (8 killed, 56 dead). The percentage of ungulates that had died from undernutrition and starvation in the total mortality was proportional to the severity of winter.