Prospective Study of Risk Factors for Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: To examine risk factors for new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. METHODS: Patients enrolled in the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network multicenter, randomized trial of rate control versus rhythm control for POAF were included. Predictors of POAF were determined using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the 2104 patients who were enrolled preoperatively, 695 developed POAF (33.0%). Rates of POAF were 28.1% after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 33.7% after isolated valve repair or replacement, and 47.3% after CABG plus valve repair or replacement. Baseline characteristics associated with an increased risk of POAF identified on multivariable analysis included older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.73, per 10 y), White race or non-Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.52; CI: 1.11-2.07), history of heart failure (OR 1.55; CI: 1.16-2.08), and history of hypothyroidism (OR 1.42; CI 1.04-1.94). The type of cardiac procedure was associated with an increased risk of POAF with both isolated valve repair or replacement (OR 1.33, CI 1.08-1.64) and combined CABG plus valve repair or replacement (OR 1.64, CI 1.24-2.17) having increased risk of POAF compared to isolated CABG. No preoperative cardiac medication was associated with POAF. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort of patients, older age, a history of hypothyroidism, a history of heart failure, and valve repair or replacement, with or without CABG, and White non-Hispanic race were associated with an increased risk of POAF.

Evaluating treatment effects in group sequential multivariate longitudinal studies with covariate adjustment.

Jeffries et al. (2018) investigated testing for a treatment difference in the setting of a randomized clinical trial with a single outcome measured longitudinally over a series of common follow-up times while adjusting for covariates. That paper examined the null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative of a difference for at least one follow-up time. We extend those results here by considering multivariate outcome measurements, where each individual outcome is examined at common follow-up times. We consider the case where there is interest in first testing for a treatment difference in a global function of the outcomes (e.g., weighted average or sum) with subsequent interest in examining the individual outcomes, should the global function show a treatment difference. Testing is conducted for each follow-up time and may be performed in the setting of a group sequential trial. Testing procedures are developed to determine follow-up times for which a global treatment difference exists and which individual combinations of outcome and follow-up time show evidence of a difference while controlling for multiplicity in outcomes, follow-up, and interim analyses. These approaches are examined in a study evaluating the effects of tissue plasminogen activator on longitudinally obtained stroke severity measurements.

Concomitant Tricuspid Repair in Patients with Degenerative Mitral Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: Tricuspid regurgitation is common in patients with severe degenerative mitral regurgitation. However, the evidence base is insufficient to inform a decision about whether to perform tricuspid-valve repair during mitral-valve surgery in patients who have moderate tricuspid regurgitation or less-than-moderate regurgitation with annular dilatation. METHODS: We randomly assigned 401 patients who were undergoing mitral-valve surgery for degenerative mitral regurgitation to receive a procedure with or without tricuspid annuloplasty (TA). The primary 2-year end point was a composite of reoperation for tricuspid regurgitation, progression of tricuspid regurgitation by two grades from baseline or the presence of severe tricuspid regurgitation, or death. RESULTS: Patients who underwent mitral-valve surgery plus TA had fewer primary-end-point events than those who underwent mitral-valve surgery alone (3.9% vs. 10.2%) (relative risk, 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.86; P = 0.02). Two-year mortality was 3.2% in the surgery-plus-TA group and 4.5% in the surgery-alone group (relative risk, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.25 to 1.88). The 2-year prevalence of progression of tricuspid regurgitation was lower in the surgery-plus-TA group than in the surgery-alone group (0.6% vs. 6.1%; relative risk, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.69). The frequencies of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, functional status, and quality of life were similar in the two groups at 2 years, although the incidence of permanent pacemaker implantation was higher in the surgery-plus-TA group than in the surgery-alone group (14.1% vs. 2.5%; rate ratio, 5.75; 95% CI, 2.27 to 14.60). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients undergoing mitral-valve surgery, those who also received TA had a lower incidence of a primary-end-point event than those who underwent mitral-valve surgery alone at 2 years, a reduction that was driven by less frequent progression to severe tricuspid regurgitation. Tricuspid repair resulted in more frequent permanent pacemaker implantation. Whether reduced progression of tricuspid regurgitation results in long-term clinical benefit can be determined only with longer follow-up. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the German Center for Cardiovascular Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02675244.).

Pacemaker implantation associated with tricuspid repair in the setting of mitral valve surgery: Insights from a Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: In a recent trial, tricuspid annuloplasty (TA) during mitral valve surgery (MVS) for degenerative mitral regurgitation and moderate or less tricuspid regurgitation (TR) reduced the composite rate of death, reoperation for TR, or TR progression at 2 years. However, this benefit was counterbalanced by an increase in implantation of permanent pacemakers (PPMs). In this study, we analyzed the timing, indications, and risk factors for these implantations. METHODS: We randomized 401 patients (MVS alone = 203; MVS + TA = 198). Potential risk factors for PPMs were assessed using multivariable time-to-event models with death and PPM implantation for heart failure indications as competing risks. RESULTS: A PPM was implanted in 36 patients (9.6; 95% CI, 6.8-13.0) within 2 years of randomization, with 30/187 (16.0%) in the MVS + TA and 6/188 (3.2%) in the MVS groups (rate ratio, 5.08; 95% CI, 2.16-11.94; P < .001). Most (29/36; 80.6%) implantations occurred within 30 days postoperatively. Independent risk factors for PPM implantation within 2 years were TA (hazard ratio [HR], 5.94; 95% CI, 2.27-15.53; P < .001), increasing age (5 years, HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.01-1.52; P = .04), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-0.99; P = .02). In the subset of TA recipients (n = 197), age (5 years, HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.00-1.10; P = .04) and LVEF (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99; P = .01) were associated with PPM within 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant TA, age, and baseline LVEF were risk factors for PPM implantation in patients who underwent MVS for degenerative mitral regurgitation. Although TA was effective in preventing progression of TR, innovation is needed to identify ways to decrease PPM implantation rates.

Initial Invasive or Conservative Strategy for Stable Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, whether clinical outcomes are better in those who receive an invasive intervention plus medical therapy than in those who receive medical therapy alone is uncertain. METHODS: We randomly assigned 5179 patients with moderate or severe ischemia to an initial invasive strategy (angiography and revascularization when feasible) and medical therapy or to an initial conservative strategy of medical therapy alone and angiography if medical therapy failed. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. A key secondary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes or myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Over a median of 3.2 years, 318 primary outcome events occurred in the invasive-strategy group and 352 occurred in the conservative-strategy group. At 6 months, the cumulative event rate was 5.3% in the invasive-strategy group and 3.4% in the conservative-strategy group (difference, 1.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8 to 3.0); at 5 years, the cumulative event rate was 16.4% and 18.2%, respectively (difference, -1.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to 1.0). Results were similar with respect to the key secondary outcome. The incidence of the primary outcome was sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction; a secondary analysis yielded more procedural myocardial infarctions of uncertain clinical importance. There were 145 deaths in the invasive-strategy group and 144 deaths in the conservative-strategy group (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, we did not find evidence that an initial invasive strategy, as compared with an initial conservative strategy, reduced the risk of ischemic cardiovascular events or death from any cause over a median of 3.2 years. The trial findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction that was used. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; ISCHEMIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01471522.).

Ambulatory Advanced Heart Failure in Women: A Report From the REVIVAL Registry.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to explore clinical characteristics and outcomes in women and men with ambulatory advanced heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: Women have been underrepresented in studies of advanced HF and have an increased mortality on the transplant waiting list and early after mechanical circulatory support (MCS). An increased understanding of the differential burden of HF between women and men is required to inform the use of mechanical circulatory support in ambulatory advanced HF patients. METHODS: REVIVAL (Registry Evaluation for Vital Information on Ventricular Assist Devices in Ambulatory Life) is a prospective, observational study of 400 outpatients with chronic systolic HF, New York Heart Association functional class II to IV, and 1 additional high-risk feature. Clinical characteristics, quality of life, and functional capacity were compared between women and men, as was a primary composite endpoint of death, durable MCS, or urgent heart transplantation at 1 year. RESULTS: REVIVAL enrolled 99 women (25% of the cohort) who had similar age, ejection fraction, INTERMACS (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) profiles, medication use, and willingness to consider MCS as the men enrolled; however, women reported significantly greater limitations in quality of life with respect to physical limitation, reduced 6-min walk distance, and more frequent symptoms of depression. Nevertheless, 1-year combined risk of death, durable MCS, or urgent transplantation did not differ between women and men (24% vs. 22%; p = 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the largest report to date of women with ambulatory advanced HF receiving contemporary therapies. Systematic elicitation of patient-reported outcome measures uncovered an added burden of HF in women and may be an appropriate target of augmented support and intervention.

Detecting treatment differences in group sequential longitudinal studies with covariate adjustment.

In longitudinal studies comparing two treatments over a series of common follow-up measurements, there may be interest in determining if there is a treatment difference at any follow-up period when there may be a non-monotone treatment effect over time. To evaluate this question, Jeffries and Geller (2015) examined a number of clinical trial designs that allowed adaptive choice of the follow-up time exhibiting the greatest evidence of treatment difference in a group sequential testing setting with Gaussian data. The methods are applicable when a few measurements were taken at prespecified follow-up periods. Here, we test the intersection null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative that there is a difference for at least one follow-up time. Results of Jeffries and Geller (2015) are extended by considering a broader range of modeled data and the inclusion of covariates using generalized estimating equations. Testing procedures are developed to determine a set of follow-up times that exhibit a treatment difference that accounts for multiplicity in follow-up times and interim analyses.

Effect of Cerebral Embolic Protection Devices on CNS Infarction in Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Stroke is a major complication of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Objective: To determine the efficacy and adverse effects of cerebral embolic protection devices in reducing ischemic central nervous system (CNS) injury during SAVR. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized clinical trial of patients with calcific aortic stenosis undergoing SAVR at 18 North American centers between March 2015 and July 2016. The end of follow-up was December 2016. Interventions: Use of 1 of 2 cerebral embolic protection devices (n = 118 for suction-based extraction and n = 133 for intra-aortic filtration device) vs a standard aortic cannula (control; n = 132) at the time of SAVR. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was freedom from clinical or radiographic CNS infarction at 7 days (± 3 days) after the procedure. Secondary end points included a composite of mortality, clinical ischemic stroke, and acute kidney injury within 30 days after surgery; delirium; mortality; serious adverse events; and neurocognition. Results: Among 383 randomized patients (mean age, 73.9 years; 38.4% women; 368 [96.1%] completed the trial), the rate of freedom from CNS infarction at 7 days was 32.0% with suction-based extraction vs 33.3% with control (between-group difference, -1.3%; 95% CI, -13.8% to 11.2%) and 25.6% with intra-aortic filtration vs 32.4% with control (between-group difference, -6.9%; 95% CI, -17.9% to 4.2%). The 30-day composite end point was not significantly different between suction-based extraction and control (21.4% vs 24.2%, respectively; between-group difference, -2.8% [95% CI, -13.5% to 7.9%]) nor between intra-aortic filtration and control (33.3% vs 23.7%; between-group difference, 9.7% [95% CI, -1.2% to 20.5%]). There were no significant differences in mortality (3.4% for suction-based extraction vs 1.7% for control; and 2.3% for intra-aortic filtration vs 1.5% for control) or clinical stroke (5.1% for suction-based extraction vs 5.8% for control; and 8.3% for intra-aortic filtration vs 6.1% for control). Delirium at postoperative day 7 was 6.3% for suction-based extraction vs 15.3% for control (between-group difference, -9.1%; 95% CI, -17.1% to -1.0%) and 8.1% for intra-aortic filtration vs 15.6% for control (between-group difference, -7.4%; 95% CI, -15.5% to 0.6%). Mortality and overall serious adverse events at 90 days were not significantly different across groups. Patients in the intra-aortic filtration group vs patients in the control group experienced significantly more acute kidney injury events (14 vs 4, respectively; P = .02) and cardiac arrhythmias (57 vs 30; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing SAVR, cerebral embolic protection devices compared with a standard aortic cannula did not significantly reduce the risk of CNS infarction at 7 days. Potential benefits for reduction in delirium, cognition, and symptomatic stroke merit larger trials with longer follow-up. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02389894.

Rate Control versus Rhythm Control for Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery is associated with increased rates of death, complications, and hospitalizations. In patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation who are in stable condition, the best initial treatment strategy--heart-rate control or rhythm control--remains controversial. METHODS: Patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation were randomly assigned to undergo either rate control or rhythm control. The primary end point was the total number of days of hospitalization within 60 days after randomization, as assessed by the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: Postoperative atrial fibrillation occurred in 695 of the 2109 patients (33.0%) who were enrolled preoperatively; of these patients, 523 underwent randomization. The total numbers of hospital days in the rate-control group and the rhythm-control group were similar (median, 5.1 days and 5.0 days, respectively; P=0.76). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of death (P=0.64) or overall serious adverse events (24.8 per 100 patient-months in the rate-control group and 26.4 per 100 patient-months in the rhythm-control group, P=0.61), including thromboembolic and bleeding events. About 25% of the patients in each group deviated from the assigned therapy, mainly because of drug ineffectiveness (in the rate-control group) or amiodarone side effects or adverse drug reactions (in the rhythm-control group). At 60 days, 93.8% of the patients in the rate-control group and 97.9% of those in the rhythm-control group had had a stable heart rhythm without atrial fibrillation for the previous 30 days (P=0.02), and 84.2% and 86.9%, respectively, had been free from atrial fibrillation from discharge to 60 days (P=0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Strategies for rate control and rhythm control to treat postoperative atrial fibrillation were associated with equal numbers of days of hospitalization, similar complication rates, and similarly low rates of persistent atrial fibrillation 60 days after onset. Neither treatment strategy showed a net clinical advantage over the other. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02132767.).

Mesenchymal precursor cells as adjunctive therapy in recipients of contemporary left ventricular assist devices.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs) injected during left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation may contribute to myocardial recovery. This trial explores the safety and efficacy of this strategy. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this multicenter, double-blind, sham-procedure controlled trial, 30 patients were randomized (2:1) to intramyocardial injection of 25 million MPCs or medium during LVAD implantation. The primary safety end point was incidence of infectious myocarditis, myocardial rupture, neoplasm, hypersensitivity reaction, and immune sensitization (90 days after randomization). Key efficacy end points were functional status and ventricular function while temporarily weaned from LVAD support (90 days after randomization). Patients were followed up until transplant or 12 months after randomization, whichever came first. Mean age was 57.4 (±13.6) years, mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 18.1%, and 66.7% were destination therapy LVADs. No safety events were observed. Successful temporary LVAD weaning was achieved in 50% of MPC and 20% of control patients at 90 days (P=0.24); the posterior probability that MPCs increased the likelihood of successful weaning was 93%. At 90 days, 3 deaths (30%) occurred in control patients, and none occurred in MPC patients. Mean left ventricular ejection fraction after successful wean was 24.0% (MPC=10) and 22.5% (control=2; P=0.56). At 12 months, 30% of MPC patients and 40% of control patients were successfully temporarily weaned from LVAD support (P=0.69), and 6 deaths (30%) occurred in MPC patients. Donor-specific HLA sensitization developed in 2 MPC and 3 control patients and resolved by 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: In this preliminary trial, administration of MPCs appeared to be safe, and there was a potential signal of efficacy. Future studies will evaluate the potential for higher or additional doses to enhance the ability to wean LVAD recipients off support. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01442129.

Blood transfusion and infection after cardiac surgery.

Cardiac surgery is the largest consumer of blood products in medicine; although believed life saving, transfusion carries substantial adverse risks. This study characterizes the relationship between transfusion and risk of major infection after cardiac surgery. In all, 5,158 adults were prospectively enrolled to assess infections after cardiac surgery. The most common procedures were isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (31%) and isolated valve surgery (30%); 19% were reoperations. Infections were adjudicated by independent infectious disease experts. Multivariable Cox modeling was used to assess the independent effect of blood and platelet transfusions on major infections within 60 ± 5 days of surgery. Red blood cells (RBC) and platelets were transfused in 48% and 31% of patients, respectively. Each RBC unit transfused was associated with a 29% increase in crude risk of major infection (p < 0.001). Among RBC recipients, the most common infections were pneumonia (3.6%) and bloodstream infections (2%). Risk factors for infection included postoperative RBC units transfused, longer duration of surgery, and transplant or ventricular assist device implantation, in addition to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, and elevated preoperative creatinine. Platelet transfusion decreased the risk of infection (p = 0.02). Greater attention to management practices that limit RBC use, including cell salvage, small priming volumes, vacuum-assisted venous return with rapid autologous priming, and ultrafiltration, and preoperative and intraoperative measures to elevate hematocrit could potentially reduce occurrence of major postoperative infections.

Design, rationale, and initiation of the Surgical Interventions for Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation Trial: a report from the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with coronary artery disease complicated by moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation have demonstrably poorer outcome than do patients with coronary artery disease but without mitral regurgitation. The optimal treatment of this condition has become increasingly controversial, and a randomized trial evaluating current practices is warranted. METHODS: We describe the design and initial execution of the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network Surgical Interventions for Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation Trial. RESULTS: This is an ongoing prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled clinical trial designed to test the safety and efficacy of mitral repair in addition to coronary artery bypass grafting in the treatment of moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network Surgical Interventions for Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation Trial will provide long-awaited information on controversial therapies for this morbid disease process.

Age is positively associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol among African Americans in cross-sectional analysis: the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: African Americans have historically had high high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) compared with other races and ethnicities. OBJECTIVE: We sought to characterize whether there is a cross-sectional association between age and HDL-C in a contemporary community-based study of African Americans. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were modeled by logistic regression for predictors of HDL-C among African Americans, ages 35-74, participating in the baseline examination of a community-based study of cardiovascular disease in Jackson, Mississippi, during 2000-2004. After excluding persons taking lipid-lowering medications, hormone replacement therapy, oral contraceptives, or thyroid replacement, the analytical data set comprised 2420 persons (1370 women, 1050 men). RESULTS: HDL-C had a significant positive association with age after controlling for serum triglycerides, sex, waist circumference, percent dietary calories from carbohydrates, alcohol use, and leisure physical activity. Sex was a significant effect modifier of this relationship, whereby the increase in HDL-C with age was steeper for women than for men. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectional analysis found a positive association of HDL-C with age while controlling for triglycerides. Careful evaluation of longitudinal data will be needed to confirm whether this is a true effect of aging, or a cohort or survivor effect.

Efficacy and safety of dutasteride in patients with spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy: a randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy (SBMA) is caused by polyglutamine expansion in the androgen receptor, which results in ligand-dependent toxicity. Animal models have a neuromuscular deficit that is mitigated by androgen-reducing treatment. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the 5α-reductase inhibitor dutasteride in patients with SBMA, and to identify outcome measures for use in future studies of the disease. METHODS: We undertook a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-site clinical trial in ambulatory, symptomatic men with genetically confirmed SBMA. Participants were assigned by random number table to receive dutasteride (0·5 mg per day) or placebo orally for 24 months. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was quantitative muscle assessment (QMA). The final efficacy analysis included all patients who were compliant with study treatment at 24 months. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00303446. FINDINGS: 50 men were randomly assigned to treatment groups (25 dutasteride, 25 placebo), and 44 were included in the efficacy analysis (21 dutasteride, 23 placebo). At 24 months, the placebo group showed a decrease of 4·5% (-0·30 kg/kg) from baseline in weight-scaled muscle strength as indicated by QMA, and the dutasteride group had an increase in strength of 1·3% (0·14 kg/kg); the difference between groups (5·8%, 95% CI -5·9 to 17·6; p=0·28) was not significant. Prespecified secondary outcome measures of creatine kinase, muscle strength and function, motor nerve conduction, activities of daily living, and erectile function did not show a significant difference between the study groups in change from baseline. Quality of life, as measured by the physical component summary of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form version 2, favoured dutasteride (change in score from baseline: placebo, -3·6%, vs dutasteride, 2·1%; p=0·01), whereas the mental component summary favoured placebo (3·3%vs -3·2%; p=0·03). The dutasteride group had fewer patients reporting falls than did the placebo group (9 vs 16; p=0·048); there were no other significant differences in reported adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Our study did not show a significant effect of dutasteride on the progression of muscle weakness in SBMA, although there were secondary indications of both positive and negative effects compared with placebo. A longer trial duration or larger number of patients might be needed to show an effect on disease progression. Performance testing, QMA, and quality of life measures were identified as potentially useful endpoints for future therapeutic trials.

Ranking bias in association studies.

BACKGROUND: It is widely appreciated that genomewide association studies often yield overestimates of the association of a marker with disease when attention focuses upon the marker showing the strongest relationship. For example, in a case-control setting the largest (in absolute value) estimated odds ratio has been found to typically overstate the association as measured in a second, independent set of data. The most common reason given for this observation is that the choice of the most extreme test statistic is often conditional upon first observing a significant p value associated with the marker. A second, less appreciated reason is described here. Under common circumstances it is the multiple testing of many markers and subsequent focus upon those with most extreme test statistics (i.e. highly ranked results) that leads to bias in the estimated effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS: This bias, termed ranking bias, is separate from that arising from conditioning on a significant p value and may often be a more important factor in generating bias. An analytic description of this bias, simulations demonstrating its extent, and identification of some factors leading to its exacerbation are presented.

The 1p-encoded protein stathmin and resistance of malignant gliomas to nitrosoureas.

BACKGROUND: Malignant gliomas are generally resistant to all conventional therapies. Notable exceptions are anaplastic oligodendrogliomas with loss of heterozygosity on chromosome 1p (1p+/-). Patients with 1p+/- anaplastic oligodendroglioma frequently respond to procarbazine, 1-(2-chloroethyl)-3-cyclohexyl-l-nitrosourea, and vincristine. Because the underlying biologic basis for this clinical finding is unclear, we evaluated differentially expressed 1p-encoded proteins in 1p+/- and 1p+/+ malignant glioma cell lines and then examined whether their expression was associated with outcome of patients with anaplastic oligodendroglioma. METHODS: We used a comparative proteomic screen of A172 (1p+/-) and U251 (1p+/+) malignant glioma cell lines to identify differentially expressed 1p-encoded proteins, including stathmin, a microtubule-associated protein. 1p+/- and 1p+/+ anaplastic oligodendroglioma specimens from 24 patients were assessed for stathmin expression by immunohistochemistry. The relationship between stathmin expression and clinical outcome was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analyses. RNA inhibition and cDNA transfection experiments tested effects of stathmin under- and overexpression, respectively, on the in vitro and in vivo resistance of malignant glioma cells to treatment with nitrosourea. For in vivo resistance studies, 36 mice with intracranial and 16 mice with subcutaneous xenograft tumor implants were used (one tumor per mouse). Flow cytometry was used for cell cycle analysis. Immunoblotting was used to assess protein expression. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Decreased stathmin expression in tumors was statistically significantly associated with loss of heterozygosity in 1p (P<.001) and increased recurrence-free survival (P<.001). The median recurrence-free survival times for patients with tumors expressing low, intermediate, or high stathmin levels were 45 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0 to 90 months), 17 months (95% CI = 10.6 to 23.4 months), and 6 months (95% CI = 1.7 to 10.3 months), respectively. Expression of stathmin was inversely associated with overall survival of nitrosourea-treated mice carrying xenograft tumors. Median survival of mice with stathmin+/- tumors was 95 days (95% CI = 68.7 to 121.3 days) and that of mice with stathmin+/+ tumors was 64 days (95% CI = 58.2 to 69.8 days) (difference = 31 days, 95% CI = 4.1 to 57.9 days; P<.001, log-rank test). Nitrosoureas induced mitotic arrest in malignant glioma cells, and this effect was greater in cells with decreased stathmin expression. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of heterozygosity for the stathmin gene may be associated with improved outcomes of patients with 1p+/- anaplastic oligodendroglioma tumors.

Multiple comparisons distortions of parameter estimates.

In experiments involving many variables, investigators typically use multiple comparisons procedures to determine differences that are unlikely to be the result of chance. However, investigators rarely consider how the magnitude of the greatest observed effect sizes may have been subject to bias resulting from multiple testing. These questions of bias become important to the extent investigators focus on the magnitude of the observed effects. As an example, such bias can lead to problems in attempting to validate results, if a biased effect size is used to power a follow-up study. An associated important consequence is that confidence intervals constructed using standard distributions may be badly biased. A bootstrap approach is used to estimate and adjust for the bias in the effect sizes of those variables showing strongest differences. This bias is not always present; some principles showing what factors may lead to greater bias are given and a proof of the convergence of the bootstrap distribution is provided.

Performance of a genetic algorithm for mass spectrometry proteomics.

BACKGROUND: Recently, mass spectrometry data have been mined using a genetic algorithm to produce discriminatory models that distinguish healthy individuals from those with cancer. This algorithm is the basis for claims of 100% sensitivity and specificity in two related publicly available datasets. To date, no detailed attempts have been made to explore the properties of this genetic algorithm within proteomic applications. Here the algorithm's performance on these datasets is evaluated relative to other methods. RESULTS: In reproducing the method, some modifications of the algorithm as it is described are necessary to get good performance. After modification, a cross-validation approach to model selection is used. The overall classification accuracy is comparable though not superior to other approaches considered. Also, some aspects of the process rely upon random sampling and thus for a fixed dataset the algorithm can produce many different models. This raises questions about how to choose among competing models. How this choice is made is important for interpreting sensitivity and specificity results as merely choosing the model with lowest test set error rate leads to overestimates of model performance. CONCLUSIONS: The algorithm needs to be modified to reduce variability and care must be taken in how to choose among competing models. Results derived from this algorithm must be accompanied by a full description of model selection procedures to give confidence that the reported accuracy is not overstated.

Progressive brain volume loss during adolescence in childhood-onset schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Previous reports have documented a striking progressive reduction in cortical gray matter volume during adolescence in patients with childhood-onset schizophrenia. This study examined the rate of loss in cortical gray matter volume in relation to age and clinical status in adolescent patients over a follow-up period of 2-6 years. METHOD: A total of 131 brain magnetic resonance imaging scans were acquired for 60 subjects with childhood-onset schizophrenia (mean age=14.5 years, SD=2.5), and 140 scans were acquired for 64 matched healthy comparison subjects. One or more follow-up scans were acquired at approximately 2-year intervals for 39 subjects with childhood-onset schizophrenia and 43 healthy subjects. Developmental trajectories for total and regional brain volumes were examined in relation to age by using polynomial growth models and data from all available scans. The rate of gray matter reduction in patients with childhood-onset schizophrenia was examined in relation to developmental and clinical measures by using stepwise regression. RESULTS: Rates of brain volume reduction were significantly higher for patients with childhood-onset schizophrenia than for healthy comparison subjects. In childhood-onset schizophrenia, the rate of gray matter reduction was related to premorbid impairment and baseline severity of clinical symptoms but not to gender, ethnicity, or age at onset of the disorder. Unexpectedly, greater clinical improvement was significantly related to a higher rate of gray matter reduction. Longitudinal trajectories suggested that the rate of cortical loss plateaus during adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: Striking loss of cerebral gray matter is seen through adolescence in patients with childhood-onset schizophrenia. The rate of reduction was related to premorbid impairment and baseline symptom severity, but it may also be in part a plastic response to illness.

Corpus callosum development in childhood-onset schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Corpus callosum (CC) size and interhemispheric communication differences have been reported between patients with schizophrenia and normal controls. Childhood-onset schizophrenia (COS) is a severe form of the disorder that is continuous with later-onset disorder. Corpus callosal area was examined for COS at initial scan and prospectively through adolescence, and related to other developmental abnormalities for this group. METHOD: A total of 113 anatomic brain MRI scans were obtained from 55 COS (22 female) and 110 scans from 56 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers (22 female), across ages 8-24. Baseline and prospective rescans were obtained at approximately 2-year intervals. The midsagittal areas for total corpus callosum and seven subregions were calculated using an automated system. Cross-sectional and longitudinal data were combined using mixed model regression analysis to compare developmental changes for the two groups. RESULTS: No diagnostic differences were seen at time of initial scan. Longitudinally, and in contrast to healthy volunteers, patients with schizophrenia showed a significant difference in developmental trajectory for the area of the splenium, both before (p=0.012) and after (p=0.05) adjustment for total cerebral volume. The area of the splenium becomes significantly smaller in COS, starting at about age 22. CONCLUSION: Patients with schizophrenia showed a significant difference in developmental trajectory for the splenial area, which seems to decline for COS. If replicated, this may reflect anticipated late occipital and extrastriate changes in brain regions.