Use of deep learning to evaluate tumor microenvironmental features for prediction of colon cancer recurrence.

Deep learning may detect biologically important signals embedded in tumor morphologic features that confer distinct prognoses. Tumor morphological features were quantified to enhance patient risk stratification within DNA mismatch repair (MMR) groups using deep learning. Using a quantitative segmentation algorithm (QuantCRC) that identifies 15 distinct morphological features, we analyzed 402 resected stage III colon carcinomas (191 d-MMR; 189 p-MMR) from participants in a phase III trial of FOLFOX-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Results were validated in an independent cohort (176 d-MMR; 1094 p-MMR). Association of morphological features with clinicopathologic variables, MMR, KRAS, BRAFV600E, and time-to-recurrence (TTR) was determined. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were developed to predict TTR. Tumor morphological features differed significantly by MMR status. Cancers with p-MMR had more immature desmoplastic stroma. Tumors with d-MMR had increased inflammatory stroma, epithelial tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), high grade histology, mucin, and signet ring cells. Stromal subtype did not differ by BRAFV600E or KRAS status. In p-MMR tumors, multivariable analysis identified tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) as the strongest feature associated with TTR [HRadj 2.02; 95% CI,1.14-3.57; P=0.018; 3-year recurrence: 40.2% vs 20.4%; Q1 vs Q2-4]. Among d-MMR tumors, extent of inflammatory stroma [continuous HRadj 0.98; 95% CI,0.96-0.99; P=0.028; 3-year recurrence: 13.3% vs 33.4%, Q4 vs Q1] and N stage were the most robust prognostically. Association of TSR with TTR was independently validated. In conclusion, QuantCRC can quantify morphological differences within MMR groups in routine tumor sections to determine their relative contributions to patient prognosis, and may elucidate relevant pathophysiologic mechanisms driving prognosis.

Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk. METHODS: We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated. RESULTS: The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk. CONCLUSIONS: MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

Associations between pathological features and risk of metachronous colorectal cancer.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient.

Should I Take Aspirin? (SITA): RCT of a decision aid for cancer chemoprevention.

Background Australian guidelines recommend that all people aged 50-70 years old consider taking low-dose aspirin to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Aim To determine the effect of a consultation with a researcher in general practice using a decision aid about taking low-dose aspirin to prevent CRC on informed decision-making and low-dose aspirin uptake compared to a general CRC prevention brochure. Design and Setting Individually randomised controlled trial in six general practices in Victoria, Australia, from October 2020 to March 2021. Method Patients aged 50-70 years attending a general practitioner (GP) were recruited consecutively. The intervention was a consultation using a decision aid to discuss taking aspirin to reduce CRC risk; control consultations discussed reducing CRC risk generally. The self-reported co-primary outcomes were informed choices about taking aspirin at one month and low-dose aspirin uptake at six months. Results 261 participants (86% of eligible patients) were randomised into trial arms (129 intervention, 132 control). 17.7% (20/113) of intervention and 7.6% (9/118) control participants reported making an informed choice at one month, an estimated 9.1% (95% CI 0.29% to 18.5) between-arm difference in proportions [odds ratio (OR) 2.47 (97.5% CI:0.94 to 6.52) p=0.074]. The proportions of individuals who reported using aspirin at six months were: 10.2% (12/118) intervention vs 13.8% (16/116) control (estimated between-arm difference: -4.0% (95% CI: -13.5 to 5.5); [OR= 0.68 (97.5% CI:0.27 to 1.70), p= 0.692]. Conclusion The decision aid improved informed decision-making; but has little effect on long-term regular use of aspirin to reduce CRC risk.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies.

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Body size and risk of colorectal cancer molecular defined subtypes and pathways: Mendelian randomization analyses.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been positively associated with most molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the magnitude and the causality of these associations is uncertain. METHODS: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between body size traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, and body fat percentage) with risks of Jass classification types and individual subtypes of CRC (microsatellite instability [MSI] status, CpG island methylator phenotype [CIMP] status, BRAF and KRAS mutations). Summary data on tumour markers were obtained from two genetic consortia (CCFR, GECCO). FINDINGS: A 1-standard deviation (SD:5.1 kg/m2) increment in BMI levels was found to increase risks of Jass type 1MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype (odds ratio [OR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.46, 3.13; p-value = 9 × 10-5) and Jass type 2non-MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype CRC (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86; p-value = 0.005). The magnitude of these associations was stronger compared with Jass type 4non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-wildtype CRC (p-differences: 0.03 and 0.04, respectively). A 1-SD (SD:13.4 cm) increment in waist circumference increased risk of Jass type 3non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-mutated (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.25; p-value = 9 × 10-5) that was stronger compared with Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). A higher body fat percentage (SD:8.5%) increased risk of Jass type 1 CRC (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.48; p-value = 0.001), which was greater than Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). INTERPRETATION: Body size was more strongly linked to the serrated (Jass types 1 and 2) and alternate (Jass type 3) pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in comparison to the traditional pathway (Jass type 4). FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, American Institute for Cancer Research, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Prevent Cancer Foundation, Victorian Cancer Agency, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, Region Västerbotten, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, Lion's Cancer Research Foundation, Insamlingsstiftelsen, Umeå University. Full funding details are provided in acknowledgements.

Epidemiologic Factors in Relation to Colorectal Cancer Risk and Survival by Genotoxic Colibactin Mutational Signature.

BACKGROUND: The genotoxin colibactin causes a tumor single-base substitution (SBS) mutational signature, SBS88. It is unknown whether epidemiologic factors' association with colorectal cancer risk and survival differs by SBS88. METHODS: Within the Genetic Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and Colon Cancer Family Registry, we measured SBS88 in 4,308 microsatellite stable/microsatellite instability low tumors. Associations of epidemiologic factors with colorectal cancer risk by SBS88 were assessed using multinomial regression (N = 4,308 cases, 14,192 controls; cohort-only cases N = 1,911), and with colorectal cancer-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards regression (N = 3,465 cases). RESULTS: 392 (9%) tumors were SBS88 positive. Among all cases, the highest quartile of fruit intake was associated with lower risk of SBS88-positive colorectal cancer than SBS88-negative colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.76; OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, Pheterogeneity = 0.047]. Among cohort studies, associations of body mass index (BMI), alcohol, and fruit intake with colorectal cancer risk differed by SBS88. BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.40, 95% CI 1.47-7.84], but not among those SBS88-negative (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.78-1.21, Pheterogeneity = 0.066). CONCLUSIONS: Most epidemiologic factors did not differ by SBS88 for colorectal cancer risk or survival. Higher BMI may be associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive; however, validation is needed in samples with whole-genome or whole-exome sequencing available. IMPACT: This study highlights the importance of identification of tumor phenotypes related to colorectal cancer and understanding potential heterogeneity for risk and survival.

Intratumoral presence of the genotoxic gut bacteria pks+ E. coli, Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum and their association with clinicopathological and molecular features of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate clinicopathological and molecular tumour features associated with intratumoral pks+ Escherichia coli (pks+E.coli+), pks+E.coli- (non-E.coli bacteria harbouring the pks island), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum). METHODS: We screened 1697 tumour-derived DNA samples from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry, Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the ANGELS study using targeted PCR. RESULTS: Pks+E.coli+ was associated with male sex (P < 0.01) and APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation (P = 0.03). The association between pks+E.coli+ and APC:c.835-8 A > G was specific to early-onset CRCs (diagnosed<45years, P = 0.02). The APC:c.835-A > G was not associated with pks+E.coli- (P = 0.36). F. nucleatum was associated with DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd), BRAF:c.1799T>A p.V600E mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, proximal tumour location, and high levels of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (Ps < 0.01). In the stratified analysis by MMRd subgroups, F. nucleatum was associated with Lynch syndrome, MLH1 methylated and double MMR somatic mutated MMRd subgroups (Ps < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Intratumoral pks+E.coli+ but not pks+E.coli- are associated with CRCs harbouring the APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation, suggesting that this mutation is specifically related to DNA damage from colibactin-producing E.coli exposures. F. nucleatum was associated with both hereditary and sporadic MMRd subtypes, suggesting the MMRd tumour microenvironment is important for F. nucleatum colonisation irrespective of its cause.

Inherited BRCA1 and RNF43 pathogenic variants in a familial colorectal cancer type X family.

Genetic susceptibility to familial colorectal cancer (CRC), including for individuals classified as Familial Colorectal Cancer Type X (FCCTX), remains poorly understood. We describe a multi-generation CRC-affected family segregating pathogenic variants in both BRCA1, a gene associated with breast and ovarian cancer and RNF43, a gene associated with Serrated Polyposis Syndrome (SPS). A single family out of 105 families meeting the criteria for FCCTX (Amsterdam I family history criteria with mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient CRCs) recruited to the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR; 1998-2008) that underwent whole exome sequencing (WES), was selected for further testing. CRC and polyp tissue from four carriers were molecularly characterized including a single CRC that underwent WES to determine tumor mutational signatures and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) events. Ten carriers of a germline pathogenic variant BRCA1:c.2681_2682delAA p.Lys894ThrfsTer8 and eight carriers of a germline pathogenic variant RNF43:c.988 C > T p.Arg330Ter were identified in this family. Seven members carried both variants, four of which developed CRC. A single carrier of the RNF43 variant met the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO2019) criteria for SPS, developing a BRAF p.V600 wildtype CRC. Loss of the wildtype allele for both BRCA1 and RNF43 variants was observed in three CRC tumors while a LOH event across chromosome 17q encompassing both genes was observed in a CRC. Tumor mutational signature analysis identified the homologous recombination deficiency (HRD)-associated COSMIC signatures SBS3 and ID6 in a CRC for a carrier of both variants. Our findings show digenic inheritance of pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and RNF43 segregating with CRC in a FCCTX family. LOH and evidence of BRCA1-associated HRD supports the importance of both these tumor suppressor genes in CRC tumorigenesis.

Circulating white blood cell traits and colorectal cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation study.

Observational studies have suggested a protective role for eosinophils in colorectal cancer (CRC) development and implicated neutrophils, but the causal relationships remain unclear. Here, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of circulating white blood cell (WBC) counts (N = ~550 000) for basophils, eosinophils, monocytes, lymphocytes and neutrophils on CRC risk (N = 52 775 cases and 45 940 controls) using Mendelian randomisation (MR). For comparison, we also examined this relationship using individual-level data from UK Biobank (4043 incident CRC cases and 332 773 controls) in a longitudinal cohort analysis. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR analysis suggested a protective effect of increased basophil count and eosinophil count on CRC risk [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.78-0.99, P = .04; OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.98, P = .01]. The protective effect of eosinophils remained [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97, P = .01] following adjustments for all other WBC subtypes, to account for genetic correlation between the traits, using multivariable MR. A protective effect of increased lymphocyte count on CRC risk was also found [OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.93, P = 6.70e-4] following adjustment. Consistent with MR results, a protective effect for eosinophils in the cohort analysis in the fully adjusted model [RR per 1-SD increase: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .02] and following adjustment for the other WBC subtypes [RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .001] was observed. Our study implicates peripheral blood immune cells, in particular eosinophils and lymphocytes, in CRC development, highlighting a need for mechanistic studies to interrogate these relationships.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer and advanced neoplasia following primary colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous advanced neoplasia could be useful for guiding surveillance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia. METHODS: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials for articles (searching period: 1945 to Feburary, 2021) that reported the results of an association between any factor and metachronous advanced neoplasia or metachronous CRC. There were no restrictions on the publication date or language. Random effects models were fitted to estimate the combined association between the risk factors and metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. The Risk of Bias In Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool (ROBINS-I) was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. RESULTS: In total, 22 observational studies with 625,208 participants were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of these, 13 studies investigated risk factors for metachronous CRC and 9 for advanced neoplasia. The risks of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia were higher if the first CRC was diagnosed in the presence of a synchronous advanced lesion (pooled risk ratio (RR) from 3 studies: 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-9.05; and pooled RR from 8 studies: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.23-3.43, respectively). The risk of metachronous CRC was lower, but the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was higher if the first CRC was distal (compared with proximal) (pooled RR from 3 studies: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.23-0.98; and pooled RR from 2 studies: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.60-5.58 respectively). The risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia increased with age (pooled RR from 3 studies: 1.07 per year of age, 95% CI: 1.03-1.11). There was no evidence that any lifestyle risk factors studied were associated with the risk of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: The identified risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia might be useful to tailor the existing surveillance guidelines after the first CRC. There were potential limitations due to possible misclassification of the outcome, confounding and risk of bias, and the findings cannot be generalised to high-risk genetic syndrome cases.

SMARTERscreen protocol: a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of patient SMS messaging in general practice to increase participation in the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program.

BACKGROUND: Australia persistently has one of the highest rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the world. Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) sends a biennial Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT)-the 'NBCSP kit'-to everyone eligible for the programme between 50 and 74 years old; however, participation in the programme is low, especially in the 50- to 60-year-old age group. Our previous efficacy trial ('SMARTscreen') demonstrated an absolute increase in uptake of 16.5% (95% confidence interval = 2.02-30.9%) for people sent an SMS with motivational and instructional videos, from their general practice prior to receiving their NBCSP kit, compared to those receiving usual care. Building on the strengths of the SMARTscreen trial and addressing limitations, the 'SMARTERscreen' trial will test the effect on participation in the NBCSP of sending either an SMS only or an SMS with online video material to general practice patients due to receive their NBCSP compared to 'usual care'. METHODS: SMARTERscreen is a three-arm stratified cluster randomised controlled trial involving 63 general practices in two states in Australia. Eligible patients are patients who are aged 49-60 years and due to receive their NBCSP kit within the next 2 weeks during the intervention period. General practices will be equally randomised to three trial arms (21:21:21, estimated average 260 patients/practice). The two interventions include (i) an SMS with an encouraging message from their general practice or (ii) the same SMS with weblinks to additional motivational and instructional videos. The control arm will receive 'usual care'. Using the intention-to-treat approach, primary analysis will estimate the three pair-wise between-arm differences in the proportion of eligible patients who participate in the NBCSP within 6 months of when their kit is sent, utilising screening data from the Australian National Cancer Screening Register (NCSR). Patient intervention adherence to the interventions will also be evaluated. Findings will be incorporated into the Policy1-Bowel microsimulation model to estimate the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the interventions. DISCUSSION: SMARTERscreen will provide high-level evidence determining whether an SMS or an SMS with web-based material sent to general practice patients prior to receiving their NBCSP kit increases participation in bowel cancer screening. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12623000036617. Registered on 13 January 2023. Trial URL: https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=385119&isClinicalTrial=False.

DNA Mismatch Repair Gene Variant Classification: Evaluating the Utility of Somatic Mutations and Mismatch Repair Deficient Colonic Crypts and Endometrial Glands.

Germline pathogenic variants in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes (Lynch syndrome) predispose to colorectal (CRC) and endometrial (EC) cancer. Lynch syndrome specific tumor features were evaluated for their ability to support the ACMG/InSiGHT framework in classifying variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUS) in the MMR genes. Twenty-eight CRC or EC tumors from 25 VUS carriers (6xMLH1, 9xMSH2, 6xMSH6, 4xPMS2), underwent targeted tumor sequencing for the presence of microsatellite instability/MMR-deficiency (MSI-H/dMMR) status and identification of a somatic MMR mutation (second hit). Immunohistochemical testing for the presence of dMMR crypts/glands in normal tissue was also performed. The ACMG/InSiGHT framework reclassified 7/25 (28%) VUS to likely pathogenic (LP), three (12%) to benign/likely benign, and 15 (60%) VUS remained unchanged. For the seven re-classified LP variants comprising nine tumors, tumor sequencing confirmed MSI-H/dMMR (8/9, 88.9%) and a second hit (7/9, 77.8%). Of these LP reclassified variants where normal tissue was available, the presence of a dMMR crypt/gland was found in 2/4 (50%). Furthermore, a dMMR endometrial gland in a carrier of an MSH2 exon 1-6 duplication provides further support for an upgrade of this VUS to LP. Our study confirmed that identifying these Lynch syndrome features can improve MMR variant classification, enabling optimal clinical care.

Causal relationships between breast cancer risk factors based on mammographic features.

BACKGROUND: Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology. METHODS: We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40-70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method. RESULTS: The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other (r = 0.22-0.81; all P < 0.005). We estimated that 28-92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways.

Identifying primary and secondary MLH1 epimutation carriers displaying low-level constitutional MLH1 methylation using droplet digital PCR and genome-wide DNA methylation profiling of colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: MLH1 epimutation is characterised by constitutional monoallelic MLH1 promoter hypermethylation, which can cause colorectal cancer (CRC). Tumour molecular profiles of MLH1 epimutation CRCs were used to classify germline MLH1 promoter variants of uncertain significance and MLH1 methylated early-onset CRCs (EOCRCs). Genome-wide DNA methylation and somatic mutational profiles of tumours from two germline MLH1: c.-11C > T and one MLH1: c.-[28A > G; 7C > T] carriers and three MLH1 methylated EOCRCs (< 45 years) were compared with 38 reference CRCs. Methylation-sensitive droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was used to detect mosaic MLH1 methylation in blood, normal mucosa and buccal DNA. RESULTS: Genome-wide methylation-based Consensus Clustering identified four clusters where the tumour methylation profiles of germline MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and MLH1 methylated EOCRCs clustered with the constitutional MLH1 epimutation CRCs but not with the sporadic MLH1 methylated CRCs. Furthermore, monoallelic MLH1 methylation and APC promoter hypermethylation in tumour were observed in both MLH1 epimutation and germline MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and MLH1 methylated EOCRCs. Mosaic constitutional MLH1 methylation in MLH1: c.-11C > T carriers and 1 of 3 MLH1 methylated EOCRCs was identified by methylation-sensitive ddPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Mosaic MLH1 epimutation underlies the CRC aetiology in MLH1: c.-11C > T germline carriers and a subset of MLH1 methylated EOCRCs. Tumour profiling and ultra-sensitive ddPCR methylation testing can be used to identify mosaic MLH1 epimutation carriers.

Probing the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship using gene - environment interaction analyses.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship still require investigation and it is not known if the association is modified by genetic variants. To address these questions, we undertook a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis. METHODS: We used data from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO; 31,318 colorectal cancer cases/41,499 controls) and undertook genome-wide gene-environment interaction analyses with colorectal cancer risk, including interaction tests of genetics(G)xdiabetes (1-degree of freedom; d.f.) and joint testing of Gxdiabetes, G-colorectal cancer association (2-d.f. joint test) and G-diabetes correlation (3-d.f. joint test). RESULTS: Based on the joint tests, we found that the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk is modified by loci on chromosomes 8q24.11 (rs3802177, SLC30A8 - ORAA: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.34-1.96; ORAG: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30-1.54; ORGG: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.31; p-value3-d.f.: 5.46 × 10-11) and 13q14.13 (rs9526201, LRCH1 - ORGG: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.56-2.83; ORGA: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.38-1.68; ORAA: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.21; p-value2-d.f.: 7.84 × 10-09). DISCUSSION: These results suggest that variation in genes related to insulin signaling (SLC30A8) and immune function (LRCH1) may modify the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk and provide novel insights into the biology underlying the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship.

A mosaic pathogenic variant in MSH6 causes MSH6-deficient colorectal and endometrial cancer in a patient classified as suspected Lynch syndrome: a case report.

Germline pathogenic variants in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes (Lynch syndrome) predispose to colorectal (CRC) and endometrial (EC) cancer. However, mosaic variants in the MMR genes have been rarely described. We identified a likely de novo mosaic MSH6:c.1135_1139del p.Arg379* pathogenic variant in a patient diagnosed with suspected Lynch syndrome/Lynch-like syndrome. The patient developed MSH6-deficient EC and CRC at 54 and 58 years of age, respectively, without a detectable germline MMR pathogenic variant. Multigene panel sequencing of tumor and blood-derived DNA identified an MSH6 somatic mutation (MSH6:c.1135_1139del p.Arg379*) common to both the EC and CRC, raising suspicion of mosaicism. A droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) assay detected the MSH6 variant at 5.34% frequency in normal colonic tissue, 3.49% in saliva and 1.64% in blood DNA, demonstrating the presence of the MSH6 variant in all three germ layers. This study highlights the utility of tumor sequencing to guide sensitive ddPCR testing to detect low-level mosaicism in the MMR genes. Further investigation of the prevalence of MMR mosaicism is needed to inform routine diagnostic approaches and genetic counselling.

Using DEPendency of Association on the Number of Top Hits (DEPTH) as a Complementary Tool to Identify Novel Colorectal Cancer Susceptibility Loci.

BACKGROUND: DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits (DEPTH) is an approach to identify candidate susceptibility regions by considering the risk signals from overlapping groups of sequential variants across the genome. METHODS: We applied a DEPTH analysis using a sliding window of 200 SNPs to colorectal cancer data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR; 5,735 cases and 3,688 controls), and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO; 8,865 cases and 10,285 controls) studies. A DEPTH score > 1 was used to identify candidate susceptibility regions common to both analyses. We compared DEPTH results against those from conventional genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of these two studies as well as against 132 published susceptibility regions. RESULTS: Initial DEPTH analysis revealed 2,622 (CCFR) and 3,686 (GECCO) candidate susceptibility regions, of which 569 were common to both studies. Bootstrapping revealed 40 and 49 candidate susceptibility regions in the CCFR and GECCO data sets, respectively. Notably, DEPTH identified at least 82 regions that would not be detected using conventional GWAS methods, nor had they been identified by previous colorectal cancer GWASs. We found four reproducible candidate susceptibility regions (2q22.2, 2q33.1, 6p21.32, 13q14.3). The highest DEPTH scores were in the human leukocyte antigen locus at 6p21 where the strongest associated SNPs were rs762216297, rs149490268, rs114741460, and rs199707618 for the CCFR data, and rs9270761 for the GECCO data. CONCLUSIONS: DEPTH can identify candidate susceptibility regions for colorectal cancer not identified using conventional analyses of larger datasets. IMPACT: DEPTH has potential as a powerful complementary tool to conventional GWAS analyses for discovering susceptibility regions within the genome.

Variance of age-specific log incidence decomposition (VALID): a unifying model of measured and unmeasured genetic and non-genetic risks.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which known and unknown factors explain how much people of the same age differ in disease risk is fundamental to epidemiology. Risk factors can be correlated in relatives, so familial aspects of risk (genetic and non-genetic) must be considered. DEVELOPMENT: We present a unifying model (VALID) for variance in risk, with risk defined as log(incidence) or logit(cumulative incidence). Consider a normally distributed risk score with incidence increasing exponentially as the risk increases. VALID's building block is variance in risk, Δ2, where Δ = log(OPERA) is the difference in mean between cases and controls and OPERA is the odds ratio per standard deviation. A risk score correlated r between a pair of relatives generates a familial odds ratio of exp(rΔ2). Familial risk ratios, therefore, can be converted into variance components of risk, extending Fisher's classic decomposition of familial variation to binary traits. Under VALID, there is a natural upper limit to variance in risk caused by genetic factors, determined by the familial odds ratio for genetically identical twin pairs, but not to variation caused by non-genetic factors. APPLICATION: For female breast cancer, VALID quantified how much variance in risk is explained-at different ages-by known and unknown major genes and polygenes, non-genomic risk factors correlated in relatives, and known individual-specific factors. CONCLUSION: VALID has shown that, while substantial genetic risk factors have been discovered, much is unknown about genetic and familial aspects of breast cancer risk especially for young women, and little is known about individual-specific variance in risk.