RESUMO
BackgroundThe decline in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) is well established, however the impact of variant-specific immune evasion and waning protection remains unclear. Here, we use whole-genome-sequencing (WGS) to tease apart the contribution of these factors on the decline observed following the introduction of the Delta variant. Further, we evaluate the utility of calendar-period-based variant classification as an alternative to WGS. MethodsWe conducted a test-negative-case-control study among people who received SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing in the Yale New Haven Health System between April 1 and August 24, 2021. Variant classification was performed using WGS and secondarily by calendar-period. We estimated VE as one minus the ratio comparing the odds of infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated people. ResultsOverall, 2,029 cases (RT-PCR positive, sequenced samples) and 343,985 controls (negative RT-PCRs) were included. VE 14-89 days after 2nd dose was significantly higher against WGS-classified Alpha infection (84.4%, 95% confidence interval: 75.6-90.0%) than Delta infection (68.9%, CI: 58.0-77.1%, p-value: 0.013). The odds of WGS-classified Delta infection were significantly higher 90-149 than 14-89 days after 2nd dose (Odds ratio: 1.6, CI: 1.2-2.3). While estimates of VE against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, calendar-period-based classification was subject to outcome misclassification (35% during Alpha period, 4% during Delta period). ConclusionsThese findings suggest that both waning protection and variant-specific immune evasion contributed to the lower effectiveness. While estimates of VE against calendar-period-classified infections mirrored that against WGS-classified infections, our analysis highlights the need for WGS when variants are co-circulating and misclassification is likely. Summary of main pointsUsing whole genome sequencing, we provide direct evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness and variant-specific immune evasion during the Delta wave. Effectiveness estimates against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, however, calendar-period classification was associated with a variant misclassification.
RESUMO
Projections of the stage of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and local, regional and national public health policies designed to limit the spread of the epidemic as well as "reopen" cities and states, are best informed by serum neutralizing antibody titers measured by reproducible, high throughput, and statically credible antibody (Ab) assays. To date, a myriad of Ab tests, both available and authorized for emergency use by the FDA, has led to confusion rather than insight per se. The present study reports the results of a rapid, point-in-time 1,000-person cohort study using serial blood donors in the New York City metropolitan area (NYC) using multiple serological tests, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and high throughput serological assays (HTSAs). These were then tested and associated with assays for neutralizing Ab (NAb). Of the 1,000 NYC blood donor samples in late June and early July 2020, 12.1% and 10.9% were seropositive using the Ortho Total Ig and the Abbott IgG HTSA assays, respectively. These serological assays correlated with neutralization activity specific to SARS-CoV-2. The data reported herein suggest that seroconversion in this population occurred in approximately 1 in 8 blood donors from the beginning of the pandemic in NYC (considered March 1, 2020). These findings deviate with an earlier seroprevalence study in NYC showing 13.7% positivity. Collectively however, these data demonstrate that a low number of individuals have serologic evidence of infection during this "first wave" and suggest that the notion of "herd immunity" at rates of [~]60% or higher are not near. Furthermore, the data presented herein show that the nature of the Ab-based immunity is not invariably associated with the development of NAb. While the blood donor population may not mimic precisely the NYC population as a whole, rapid assessment of seroprevalence in this cohort and serial reassessment could aid public health decision making.
