Cardiac Rehabilitation in German Speaking Countries of Europe-Evidence-Based Guidelines from Germany, Austria and Switzerland LLKardReha-DACH-Part 2.

BACKGROUND: Scientific guidelines have been developed to update and harmonize exercise based cardiac rehabilitation (ebCR) in German speaking countries. Key recommendations for ebCR indications have recently been published in part 1 of this journal. The present part 2 updates the evidence with respect to contents and delivery of ebCR in clinical practice, focusing on exercise training (ET), psychological interventions (PI), patient education (PE). In addition, special patients' groups and new developments, such as telemedical (Tele) or home-based ebCR, are discussed as well. METHODS: Generation of evidence and search of literature have been described in part 1. RESULTS: Well documented evidence confirms the prognostic significance of ET in patients with coronary artery disease. Positive clinical effects of ET are described in patients with congestive heart failure, heart valve surgery or intervention, adults with congenital heart disease, and peripheral arterial disease. Specific recommendations for risk stratification and adequate exercise prescription for continuous-, interval-, and strength training are given in detail. PI when added to ebCR did not show significant positive effects in general. There was a positive trend towards reduction in depressive symptoms for "distress management" and "lifestyle changes". PE is able to increase patients' knowledge and motivation, as well as behavior changes, regarding physical activity, dietary habits, and smoking cessation. The evidence for distinct ebCR programs in special patients' groups is less clear. Studies on Tele-CR predominantly included low-risk patients. Hence, it is questionable, whether clinical results derived from studies in conventional ebCR may be transferred to Tele-CR. CONCLUSIONS: ET is the cornerstone of ebCR. Additional PI should be included, adjusted to the needs of the individual patient. PE is able to promote patients self-management, empowerment, and motivation. Diversity-sensitive structures should be established to interact with the needs of special patient groups and gender issues. Tele-CR should be further investigated as a valuable tool to implement ebCR more widely and effectively.

Cardiac Rehabilitation in German Speaking Countries of Europe-Evidence-Based Guidelines from Germany, Austria and Switzerland LLKardReha-DACH-Part 1.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular rehabilitation (CR) is well accepted in general, CR-attendance and delivery still considerably vary between the European countries. Moreover, clinical and prognostic effects of CR are not well established for a variety of cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: The guidelines address all aspects of CR including indications, contents and delivery. By processing the guidelines, every step was externally supervised and moderated by independent members of the "Association of the Scientific Medical Societies in Germany" (AWMF). Four meta-analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic effect of CR after acute coronary syndrome (ACS), after coronary bypass grafting (CABG), in patients with severe chronic systolic heart failure (HFrEF), and to define the effect of psychological interventions during CR. All other indications for CR-delivery were based on a predefined semi-structured literature search and recommendations were established by a formal consenting process including all medical societies involved in guideline generation. RESULTS: Multidisciplinary CR is associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality in patients after ACS and after CABG, whereas HFrEF-patients (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) especially benefit in terms of exercise capacity and health-related quality of life. Patients with other cardiovascular diseases also benefit from CR-participation, but the scientific evidence is less clear. There is increasing evidence that the beneficial effect of CR strongly depends on "treatment intensity" including medical supervision, treatment of cardiovascular risk factors, information and education, and a minimum of individually adapted exercise volume. Additional psychologic interventions should be performed on the basis of individual needs. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines reinforce the substantial benefit of CR in specific clinical indications, but also describe remaining deficits in CR-delivery in clinical practice as well as in CR-science with respect to methodology and presentation.

Automated mechanical cardiopulmonary resuscitation devices versus manual chest compressions in the treatment of cardiac arrest: protocol of a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing machine to human.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiac arrest is a leading cause of death in industrialised countries. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) guidelines follow the principles of closed chest compression as described for the first time in 1960. Mechanical CPR devices are designed to improve chest compression quality, thus considering the improvement of resuscitation outcomes. This protocol outlines a systematic review and meta-analysis methodology to assess trials investigating the therapeutic effect of automated mechanical CPR devices at the rate of return of spontaneous circulation, neurological state and secondary endpoints (including short-term and long-term survival, injuries and surrogate parameters for CPR quality) in comparison with manual chest compressions in adults with cardiac arrest. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A sensitive search strategy will be employed in established bibliographic databases from inception until the date of search, followed by forward and backward reference searching. We will include randomised and quasi-randomised trials in qualitative analysis thus comparing mechanical to manual CPR. Studies reporting survival outcomes will be included in quantitative analysis. Two reviewers will assess independently publications using a predefined data collection form. Standardised tools will be used for data extraction, risks of bias and quality of evidence. If enough studies are identified for meta-analysis, the measures of association will be calculated by dint of bivariate random-effects models. Statistical heterogeneity will be evaluated by I2-statistics and explored through sensitivity analysis. By comprehensive subgroup analysis we intend to identify subpopulations who may benefit from mechanical or manual CPR techniques. The reporting follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval will be needed because data from previous studies will be retrieved and analysed. Most resuscitation studies are conducted under an emergency exception for informed consent. This publication contains data deriving from a dissertation project. We will disseminate the results through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and at scientific conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017051633.

Meta-analysis of primary open versus closed cannulation strategy for totally implantable venous access port implantation.

BACKGROUND: There is still no reference standard for the implantation of totally implantable venous access ports (TIVAPs). A recently published multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) revealed a significantly greater risk of pneumothorax after closed cannulation than after an open strategy. The aim of this meta-analysis was to provide an update of the available evidence for the safety and effectiveness of primary open versus closed cannulation strategy. METHODS: RCTs comparing outcomes of open cut-down of the cephalic vein and closed cannulation of the subclavian vein were sought systematically in MEDLINE, Web of Science and CENTRAL. The primary outcome was the occurrence of pneumothorax. A beta-binominal model was applied to combine the respective outcomes, and results are presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Six RCTs with a total of 1831 patients were included in final analysis. Meta-analysis showed statistically significant superiority of the open cut-down technique regarding pneumothorax (OR 0.308, 95% CI 0.122 to 0.776), but a statistically significant higher failure of the primary technique for the open cut-down technique than for closed cannulation (OR 2.364, 95% CI 1.051 to 5.315). There were no significant differences between the two procedures regarding other morbidity endpoints. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis shows a general superiority of open cut-down of the cephalic vein over closed cannulation of the subclavian vein regarding the occurrence of pneumothorax. Open cut-down should be the first-line approach for TIVAP implantation. Closed cannulation should be performed with ultrasound as second-line procedure if the open technique fails. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42013005180.

Utilizing radar graphs in the visualization of simulation and estimation results in network meta-analysis.

Traditional visualization in meta-analysis uses forest plots to illustrate the combined treatment effect, along with the respective results from primary trials. While the purpose of visualization is clear in the pairwise setting, additional treatments broaden the focus and extend the results to be illustrated in network meta-analysis. The complexity increases further in situations where all potential contrasts in the network are compared to a predefined fixed value of interest, such as the 95% coverage evaluated against the nominal value of 95% in simulation studies. We propose utilizing radar graphs to illustrate results from network meta-analysis in cases where the interest lies in the comparison of estimated results (after fitting a network meta-analysis in a specific data set) or a performance measure (simulation study) to a pre-defined fixed reference value. Accounting for the complex high-dimensional data structure, the general picture of the full network is captured at once without increasing the space needed for visualization. Especially in large simulation studies, where multiple scenarios need to be visually combined to gain an overview on different scenarios, this type of illustration facilitates the discussion of results. Further properties, such as the expected variation due to the Monte-Carlo error or the differentiation between directly and indirectly estimated treatment contrasts in simulation studies, as well as the indication of well-connected and sparsely connected treatments in an applied network meta-analysis, can additionally be included in the visualization. While we used the radar-graph mainly for a simulation study, other applications are suitable whenever relative contributions of treatment (contrasts) are of interest.

Balloon Eustachian Tuboplasty (BET) in Children: A Retrospective Multicenter Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Generation of pilot data for planning of prospective BET-studies for treatment of dilatory Eustachian tube (ET) dysfunction in children. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective multicenter analysis. SETTING: Nine ENT departments at tertiary care teaching hospitals. PATIENTS: 4-12-year-old children with chronic otitis media with effusion (COME) for more than 3 months or more than 3 episodes of acute otitis media during the last year, having failed standard surgical therapy at least once. INTERVENTION: BET with or without paracentesis, ventilation tube insertion, or tympanoplasty. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Tympanic membrane appearance, tympanometry, and hearing threshold. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-nine ETs of 167 children were treated. Mean age was 9.1 years (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 8.7-9.4 yr). In 249 ears (83.3%), COME and/or retraction of the tympanic membrane were the indication for BET. Median hearing threshold was 20 dB HL (95% CI: 0-46 dB). One hundred fifty-five ears (51.8%, 95% CI: 46.1-57.4%) showed a tympanogram type B. Treatment consisted of BET without other interventions ("BET-only") in 70 children, 128 ears. Median length of follow-up for 158 (94.6%) children was 2.6 months (95% CI: 0.3-16.1 mo). After treatment, the tympanic membrane appeared normal in 196 ears (65.6%, 95% CI: 60.0-70.8%, p < 0.001). Median hearing threshold improved to 10 dB HL (95% CI: 0-45 dB, p < 0.001). Tympanograms shifted toward type A and C (type A: 39.1%, 95% CI: 33.7-44.7, p < 0.001). These improvements were also observed in subgroup analyses of "BET-only" treatment and the indication of "COME" respectively. CONCLUSION: BET is improving a variety of dilatory ET dysfunction-related ear diseases in children. This study provides detailed data for design and planning of prospective studies on BET in children.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Therapy Effects by Indirect Comparisons: A Simulation Study.

Objective. In evidence synthesis, therapeutic options have to be compared despite the lack of head-to-head trials. Indirect comparisons are then widely used, although little is known about their performance in situations where cross-trial differences or effect modification are present. Methods. We contrast the matching adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC), simulated treatment comparison (STC), and the method of Bucher using a simulation study. The different methods are evaluated according to their power and type I error rate as well as with respect to the coverage, bias, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the effect estimate for practically relevant scenarios using binary and time-to-event endpoints. In addition, we investigate how the power planned for the head-to-head trials influences the actual power of the indirect comparison. Results. Indirect comparisons are considerably underpowered. None of the methods had substantially superior performance. In situations without cross-trial differences and effect modification, MAIC and Bucher led to similar results, while Bucher has the advantage of preserving the within-study randomization. MAIC and STC could enhance power in some scenarios but at the cost of a potential type I error inflation. Adjusting MAIC and STC for confounders that did not modify the effect led to higher bias and RMSE. Conclusion. The choice of effect modifiers in MAIC and STC influences the precision of the indirect comparison. Therefore, a careful selection of effect modifiers is warranted. In addition, missed differences between trials may lead to low power and partly high bias for all considered methods, and thus, results of indirect comparisons should be interpreted with caution.

Predicting sustained ventricular arrhythmias in dilated cardiomyopathy: a meta-analysis and systematic review.

AIMS: Patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) are at increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Identification of patients that may benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation remains challenging. In this study, we aimed to determine predictors of sustained ventricular arrhythmias in patients with DCM. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched MEDLINE/Embase for studies describing predictors of sustained ventricular arrhythmias in patients with DCM. Quality and bias were assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, articles with high risk of bias in ≥2 areas were excluded. Unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of uniformly defined predictors were pooled, while all other predictors were evaluated in a systematic review. We included 55 studies (11 451 patients and 3.7 ± 2.3 years follow-up). Crude annual event rate was 4.5%. Younger age [HR 0.82; 95% CI (0.74-1.00)], hypertension [HR 1.95; 95% CI (1.26-3.00)], prior sustained ventricular arrhythmia [HR 4.15; 95% CI (1.32-13.02)], left ventricular ejection fraction on ultrasound [HR 1.45; 95% CI (1.19-1.78)], left ventricular dilatation (HR 1.10), and presence of late gadolinium enhancement [HR 5.55; 95% CI (4.02-7.67)] were associated with arrhythmic outcome in pooled analyses. Prior non-sustained ventricular arrhythmia and several genotypes [mutations in Phospholamban (PLN), Lamin A/C (LMNA), and Filamin-C (FLNC)] were associated with arrhythmic outcome in non-pooled analyses. Quality of evidence was moderate, and heterogeneity among studies was moderate to high. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with DCM, the annual event rate of sustained ventricular arrhythmias is approximately 4.5%. This risk is considerably higher in younger patients with hypertension, prior (non-)sustained ventricular arrhythmia, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular dilatation, late gadolinium enhancement, and genetic mutations (PLN, LMNA, and FLNC). These results may help determine appropriate candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation.

[Empirically based developmental and behavioral intervention programs targeting the core symptoms and language development in toddlers and preschool children with autism spectrum disorder]. / Empirisch untersuchte entwicklungsorientierte und verhaltenstherapeutisch basierte Therapieprogramme zur Verbesserung der Kernsymptome und der Sprachentwicklung bei Klein- und Vorschulkindern mit Autismus-Spektrum-Störungen.

Empirically based developmental and behavioral intervention programs targeting the core symptoms and language development in toddlers and preschool children with autism spectrum disorder Abstract. This systematic review summarizes findings of articles included in the German AWMF-S3 clinical guideline on early intervention in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We present the current state-of the art of evidence-based interventions for toddlers and preschool-aged children with ASD, specifically targeting the core symptoms and language development. We included studies on manualized developmental and behavioral interventions for children with ASD aged <7 years according to DSM-III(R), DSM-IV(TR), DSM-5, and ICD-10. The publication dates ranged from 1 January 2011 to 31 August 2018 or as included in the NICE-children guidelines. Studies were included by an iterative hierarchy: systematic review > randomized-controlled trial > clinically controlled trial. Outcome measures were core ASD symptoms and precursor abilities, or language abilities. The interventions were collated by (1) frequency and (2) approach. The studies focused on low-intensive interventions targeting parental synchrony, the child's initiations, reciprocity, joint attention, play and imitation skills as well as comprehensive interventions. Improvement of core ASD symptoms regarding social communication was observed for low-intensive training of parental synchrony and child's reciprocity as well as for low-intensive comprehensive developmental interventions implementing natural-learning paradigms. High-frequency discrete trial interventions did not improve social communication. Language abilities improved by comprehensive interventions. In conclusion, intervention recommendations are summarized.

Effectiveness of comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation in coronary artery disease patients treated according to contemporary evidence based medicine: Update of the Cardiac Rehabilitation Outcome Study (CROS-II).

BACKGROUND: Despite numerous studies and meta-analyses the prognostic effect of cardiac rehabilitation is still under debate. This update of the Cardiac Rehabilitation Outcome Study (CROS II) provides a contemporary and practice focused approach including only cardiac rehabilitation interventions based on published standards and core components to evaluate cardiac rehabilitation delivery and effectiveness in improving patient prognosis. DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: Randomised controlled trials and retrospective and prospective controlled cohort studies evaluating patients after acute coronary syndrome, coronary artery bypass grafting or mixed populations with coronary artery disease published until September 2018 were included. RESULTS: Based on CROS inclusion criteria out of 7096 abstracts six additional studies including 8671 patients were identified (two randomised controlled trials, two retrospective controlled cohort studies, two prospective controlled cohort studies). In total, 31 studies including 228,337 patients were available for this meta-analysis (three randomised controlled trials, nine prospective controlled cohort studies, 19 retrospective controlled cohort studies; 50,653 patients after acute coronary syndrome 14,583, after coronary artery bypass grafting 163,101, mixed coronary artery disease populations; follow-up periods ranging from 9 months to 14 years). Heterogeneity in design, cardiac rehabilitation delivery, biometrical assessment and potential confounders was considerable. Controlled cohort studies showed a significantly reduced total mortality (primary endpoint) after cardiac rehabilitation participation in patients after acute coronary syndrome (prospective controlled cohort studies: hazard ratio (HR) 0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.69; retrospective controlled cohort studies HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.53-0.76; prospective controlled cohort studies odds ratio 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.48), but the single randomised controlled trial fulfilling the CROS inclusion criteria showed neutral results. Cardiac rehabilitation participation was also associated with reduced total mortality in patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (retrospective controlled cohort studies HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.54-0.70, one single randomised controlled trial without fatal events), and in mixed coronary artery disease populations (retrospective controlled cohort studies HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.36-0.77; two out of 10 controlled cohort studies with neutral results). CONCLUSION: CROS II confirms the effectiveness of cardiac rehabilitation participation after acute coronary syndrome and after coronary artery bypass grafting in actual clinical practice by reducing total mortality under the conditions of current evidence-based coronary artery disease treatment. The data of CROS II, however, underscore the urgent need to define internationally accepted minimal standards for cardiac rehabilitation delivery as well as for scientific evaluation.

Study protocol of the multi-centre, randomised controlled trial of the Frankfurt Early Intervention Programme A-FFIP versus early intervention as usual for toddlers and preschool children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (A-FFIP study).

BACKGROUND: Naturalistic developmental behavioural interventions (NDBI) have been shown to improve autism-specific symptoms in young children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). NDBI approaches, such as the ASD-specific Frankfurt Early Intervention Programme for ASD (A-FFIP), are based on ASD-specific developmental and learning aspects. A-FFIP is a low-intensity intervention which can easily be implemented in the local health care/social welfare system. The aim of the present study is to establish 1-year efficacy of the manualised early intervention programme A-FFIP in toddlers and preschool children with ASD. It is hypothesised that A-FFIP will result in improved ASD-specific symptoms compared to early intervention as usual (EIAU). Child- and family-specific secondary outcomes, as well as moderators and mediators of outcome, will be explored. METHODS/DESIGN: A prospective, multi-centre, parallel-group, randomised controlled, phase-III trial comparing A-FFIP versus EIAU. A total of 134 children (A-FFIP: 67, EIAU: 67) aged 24-66 months at baseline assessment meeting the criteria for ASD (DSM-5) will be included. The primary outcome is the absolute change of the total score of the Brief Observation of Social Communication Change (BOSCC-AT) between baseline (T2) and 1-year follow-up (T6). The treatment effect will be tested, adjusted for relevant covariates applying a mixed model for repeated measures. Secondary outcomes are BOSCC social communication and repetitive-behaviour scores, single ASD symptoms, language, cognition, psychopathology, parental well-being and family quality of life. Predictors, moderators and mediating mechanisms will be explored. DISCUSSION: If efficacy of the manualised A-FFIP early intervention is established, the current study has the potential to change clinical practice strongly towards the implementation of a low-intensity, evidence-based, natural early intervention in ASD. Early intervention in ASD requires specialist training, which subsequently needs to be developed or included into current training curricula. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Registry for Clinical Trials (Deutscher Register Klinischer Studien, DRKS); ID: 00016330. Retrospectively registered on 4 January 2019. URL: https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00016330.

Intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin versus mitomycin C for Ta and T1 bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: People with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder are at risk for recurrence and progression following transurethral resection of a bladder tumour (TURBT). Mitomycin C (MMC) and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) are commonly used, competing forms of intravesical therapy for intermediate- or high-risk non-muscle invasive (Ta and T1) urothelial bladder cancer but their relative merits are somewhat uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of BCG intravesical therapy compared to MMC intravesical therapy for treating intermediate- and high-risk Ta and T1 bladder cancer in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search in multiple databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, LILACS), as well as in two clinical trial registries. We searched reference lists of relevant publications and abstract proceedings. We applied no language restrictions. The latest search was conducted in September 2019. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared intravesical BCG with intravesical MMC therapy for non-muscle invasive urothelial bladder cancer. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened the literature, extracted data, assessed risk of bias and rated the quality of evidence according to GRADE per outcome. In the meta-analyses, we used the random-effects model. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 12 RCTs comparing BCG versus MMC in participants with intermediate- and high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder tumours (published from 1995 to 2013). In total, 2932 participants were randomised. Time to death from any cause: BCG may make little or no difference on time to death from any cause compared to MMC (hazard ratio (HR) 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79 to 1.20; participants = 1132, studies = 5; 567 participants in the BCG arm and 565 in the MMC arm; low-certainty evidence). This corresponds to 6 fewer deaths (40 fewer to 36 more) per 1000 participants treated with BCG at five years. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence two levels due to study limitations and imprecision. Serious adverse effects: 12/577 participants treated with BCG experienced serious non-fatal adverse effects compared to 4/447 participants in the MMC group. The pooled risk ratio (RR) is 2.31 (95% CI 0.82 to 6.52; participants = 1024, studies = 5; low-certainty evidence). Therefore, BCG may increase the risk for serious adverse effects compared to MMC. This corresponds to nine more serious adverse effects (one fewer to 37 more) with BCG. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence two levels due to study limitations and imprecision. Time to recurrence: BCG may reduce the time to recurrence compared to MMC (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.09; participants = 2616, studies = 11, 1273 participants in the BCG arm and 1343 in the MMC arm; low-certainty evidence). This corresponds to 41 fewer recurrences (104 fewer to 29 more) with BCG at five years. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence two levels due to study limitations, imprecision and inconsistency. Time to progression: BCG may make little or no difference on time to progression compared to MMC (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.26; participants = 1622, studies = 6; 804 participants in the BCG arm and 818 in the MMC arm; low-certainty evidence). This corresponds to four fewer progressions (29 fewer to 27 more) with BCG at five years. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence two levels due to study limitations and imprecision. Quality of life: we found very limited data for this outcomes and were unable to estimate an effect size. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings, BCG may reduce the risk of recurrence over time although the Confidence Intervals include the possibility of no difference. It may have no effect on either the risk of progression or risk of death from any cause over time. BCG may cause more serious adverse events although the Confidence Intervals once again include the possibility of no difference. We were unable to determine the impact on quality of life. The certainty of the evidence was consistently low, due to concerns that include possible selection bias, performance bias, given the lack of blinding in these studies, and imprecision.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods in random-effects network meta-analysis of binary data.

The performance of statistical methods is often evaluated by means of simulation studies. In case of network meta-analysis of binary data, however, simulations are not currently available for many practically relevant settings. We perform a simulation study for sparse networks of trials under between-trial heterogeneity and including multi-arm trials. Results of the evaluation of two popular frequentist methods and a Bayesian approach using two different prior specifications are presented. Methods are evaluated using coverage, width of intervals, bias, and root mean squared error (RMSE). In addition, deviations from the theoretical surface under the cumulative rankings (SUCRAs) or P-scores of the treatments are evaluated. Under low heterogeneity and when a large number of trials informs the contrasts, all methods perform well with respect to the evaluated performance measures. Coverage is observed to be generally higher for the Bayesian than the frequentist methods. The width of credible intervals is larger than those of confidence intervals and is increasing when using a flatter prior for between-trial heterogeneity. Bias was generally small, but increased with heterogeneity, especially in netmeta. In some scenarios, the direction of bias differed between frequentist and Bayesian methods. The RMSE was comparable between methods but larger in indirectly than in directly estimated treatment effects. The deviation of the SUCRAs or P-scores from their theoretical values was mostly comparable over the methods but differed depending on the heterogeneity and the geometry of the investigated network. Multivariate meta-regression or Bayesian estimation using a half-normal prior scaled to 0.5 seems to be promising with respect to the evaluated performance measures in network meta-analysis of sparse networks.

Case-control study of the low intensive autism-specific early behavioral intervention A-FFIP: Outcome after one year.

Abstracts: Objective: In current international research, early intervention in children with autism-spectrum disorder (ASD) focuses on naturalistic developmental behavioral interventions (NDBI). The manualized Frankfurt Early Intervention Program for preschool-aged children with ASD (A-FFIP) implements NDBI principles within a low-intensity approach of 2 h intervention/week. The present case-control study established effect sizes of change in autistic symptoms, comorbid behavioral problems as well as IQ after one year. Methodology: An intervention group (N = 20; age: 3.4-7.9 years) and a treatment-as-usual control group (N = 20; age: 3.2-7.3 years) of children with ASD were matched for developmental and chronological age. The outcome measures used were the ADOS severity score, the Child Behavior Checklist, and cognitive development. Results: After one year, the A-FFIP group showed a trend towards greater improvement in autistic symptoms (η2 = .087 [95 %-CI: .000-.159]) and significantly greater improvements in cognitive development (η2 = .206 [CI: .012-.252]) and global psychopathology (η2 = .144 [CI: .001-.205]) compared to the control group. Conclusion: The efficacy of A-FFIP should be established in a larger, sufficiently powered, randomized controlled study.

Relative Efficacy of Spironolactone, Eplerenone, and cAnRenone in patients with Chronic Heart failure (RESEARCH): a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

This study aims to assess the comparative benefit and risk profile of treatment with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) with regard to all-cause mortality (primary endpoint), cardiovascular mortality, or heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization (secondary endpoints) and the safety endpoints hyperkalemia, acute renal failure, and gynecomastia in patients with chronic HF. We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis following PRISMA-P and PRISMA-NMA guidelines. From 16 different sources, 14 randomized controlled trials totaling 12,213 patients testing an active treatment of either spironolactone, eplerenone, or canrenone/potassium-canreonate in adults with symptomatic HF due to systolic dysfunction reporting any of the above endpoints were retained. Efficacy in comparison to placebo/standard medical care with respect to all-cause mortality was confirmed for spironolactone and eplerenone while no conclusion could be drawn for canrenone (HR 0.69 (0.62; 0.77), 0.82 (0.75; 0.91), and 0.50 (0.17; 1.45), respectively). Indirect comparisons hint a potential (non-significant) preference of spironolactone over eplerenone (HR 0.84 (0.68; 1.03)). The overall risk of bias was low to intermediate. Results for secondary endpoints as well as sensitivity analyses essentially mirrored these findings. The beta-blocker adjusted meta-analysis for the primary endpoint showed the same tendency as the unadjusted one (HR 0.39 (0.07; 2.03)). Results need to be interpreted with caution, though, as the resultant mix of patient- and study-level covariates produced unstable statistical modeling. We found no significant and systematic superiority of either MRA regarding efficacy toward all endpoints considered in both direct and indirect comparisons.

Integrated evaluation of targeted and non-targeted therapies in a network meta-analysis.

Individualized therapies for patients with biomarkers are moving more and more into the focus of research interest when developing new treatments. Hereby, the term individualized (or targeted) therapy denotes a treatment specifically developed for biomarker-positive patients. A network meta-analysis model for a binary endpoint combining the evidence for a targeted therapy from individual patient data with the evidence for a non-targeted therapy from aggregate data is presented and investigated. The biomarker status of the patients is either available at patient-level in individual patient data or at study-level in aggregate data. Both types of biomarker information have to be included. The evidence synthesis model follows a Bayesian approach and applies a meta-regression to the studies with aggregate data. In a simulation study, we address three treatment arms, one of them investigating a targeted therapy. The bias and the root-mean-square error of the treatment effect estimate for the subgroup of biomarker-positive patients based on studies with aggregate data are investigated. Thereby, the meta-regression approach is compared to approaches applying alternative solutions. The regression approach has a surprisingly small bias even in the presence of few studies. By contrast, the root-mean-square error is relatively greater. An illustrative example is provided demonstrating implementation of the presented network meta-analysis model in a clinical setting.

Disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in neoadjuvant trials of gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma: Pooled analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Disease-free survival (DFS) is increasingly being used as surrogate end-point for overall survival (OS) in cancer trials. So far, there has been no validation of the surrogacy of DFS for OS for neoadjuvant treatment of gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: The study uses individual patient data (IPD) from eight randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 1126 patients) comparing neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery with surgery alone for gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma. Correlation between OS time and DFS time was calculated to evaluate individual-level surrogacy. For each trial, survival curves using the Kaplan-Meier method were plotted and hazard ratios (HRs) on the treatment effects were calculated for OS and DFS separately. Those HRs were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Observed HRs were compared with predicted HRs for OS using results from an error-in-variables linear regression model accounting for the uncertainty about the estimated effect. The strength of the association was quantified by the coefficient of determination to assess trial-level surrogacy. The surrogate threshold effect was calculated to determine the minimum treatment effect on DFS necessary to predict a non-zero treatment effect on OS. RESULTS: A strong correlation between OS time and DFS time was observed, indicating a high individual-level surrogacy. For all RCTs, estimated HRs for OS and DFS were highly similar. In the meta-analysis, the overall HR for OS was virtually identical to that for DFS. The estimated coefficient of determination r2 for the association between HRs for OS and DFS was 0.912 (95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.0), indicating a very good fit of the regression model and thus a strong trial-level surrogacy between OS and DFS. The surrogate threshold effect based on the regression analysis was 0.79. DISCUSSION: Based on strong correlations between DFS and OS, as well as a strong correlation of the treatment effects of the two end-points in the error-in-variable regression, DFS seems an appropriate surrogate marker for OS in randomised trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma.

Evidence map of pancreatic surgery: protocol for a living systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic surgery is a large and complex field of research. Several evidence gaps exist for specific diseases or surgical procedures. An overview on existing knowledge is needed to plan and prioritise future research. The aim of this project is to create a systematic and living evidence map of pancreatic surgery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic literature search in MEDLINE (via PubMed), Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials will be performed searching for all randomised controlled trials (RCT) and systematic reviews (SR) on pancreatic surgery. RCT and SR will be grouped in research topics. Baseline and outcome data from RCT will be extracted, presented and effect sizes meta-analysed. Data from SR will be used to identify evidence gaps. A freely accessible web-based evidence map in the format of a mind map will be created. The evidence map and meta-analyses will be updated periodically. DISSEMINATION: After completion of the project, a permanently updated evidence map of pancreatic surgery will be available to patients, physicians, researchers and funding bodies via www.evidencemap.surgery. Its use will allow clinical decision-making based on primary data and prioritisation of future research endeavours. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019133444.

Early versus deferred standard androgen suppression therapy for advanced hormone-sensitive prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Standard androgen suppression therapy (AST) using surgical or medical castration is considered a mainstay of advanced hormone-sensitive prostate cancer treatment. AST can be initiated early when disease is asymptomatic or deferred when patients suffer symptoms of disseminated prostate cancer. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of early versus deferred standard AST for advanced hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. SEARCH METHODS: For this Cochrane Review update, we performed a comprehensive search of multiple databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science; last searched November 2018) and two clinical trial registers, with no restrictions on the language of publication or publication status. We also searched bibliographies of included studies and conference proceedings (last searched January 2019). SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a direct comparison of early versus deferred standard AST. We excluded all other study designs. Participants included had advanced hormone-sensitive prostate cancer receiving surgical or medical castration. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently classified studies and abstracted data. The primary outcomes were time to death of any cause and serious adverse events. Secondary outcomes were time to disease progression, time to death from prostate cancer, adverse events and quality of life. We performed statistical analyses using a random-effects model and assessed the certainty of evidence according to GRADE. We performed subgroup analyses for advanced but non-metastatic disease (T2-4/N+ M0), metastatic disease (M1), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse. MAIN RESULTS: We identified seven new RCTs since publication of the original review in 2002. In total, we included 10 RCTs.Primary outcomesEarly AST probably reduces the risk of death from any cause over time (hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.90; moderate-certainty evidence; 4767 participants). This corresponds to 57 fewer deaths (95% CI 80 fewer to 31 fewer) per 1000 participants at 5 years for the moderate risk group and 23 fewer deaths (95% CI 32 fewer to 13 fewer) per 1000 participants at 5 years in the low risk group. We downgraded for study limitations. Early versus deferred AST may have little or no effect on serious adverse events (risk ratio (RR) 1.05, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.16; low-certainty evidence; 10,575 participants) which corresponds to 6 more serious adverse events (6 fewer to 18 more) per 1000 participants. We downgraded the certainty of evidence for study limitations and selective reporting.Secondary outcomesEarly AST probably reduces the risk of death from prostate cancer over time (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84; moderate-certainty evidence). This corresponds to 62 fewer prostate cancer deaths per 1000 (95% CI 87 fewer to 31 fewer) at 5 years for the moderate risk group and 24 fewer death from prostate cancer (95% CI 34 fewer to 12 fewer) per 1000 men at 5 years in the low risk group. We downgraded the certainty of evidence for study limitations.Early AST may decrease the rate of skeletal events (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.80; low-certainty evidence) corresponding to 23 fewer skeletal events per 1000 (95% CI 31 fewer to 7 fewer). We downgraded for study limitations and imprecision. It may also increase fatigue (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.62; low-certainty evidence), corresponding to 31 more men with this complaint per 1000 (95% CI 18 more to 48 more). We downgraded for study limitations and imprecision. It may increase the risk of heart failure (RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.33; low-certainty evidence) corresponding to 27 more events per 1000 (95% CI 3 more to 69 more). We downgraded the certainty of evidence for study limitations and imprecision.Global quality of life is probably similar after two years as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-C30 (version 3.0) questionnaire (mean difference -1.56, 95% CI -4.50 to 1.38; moderate-certainty evidence) with higher scores reflecting better quality of life. We downgraded the certainty of evidence for study limitations. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Early AST probably extends time to death of any cause and time to death from prostate cancer. It may slightly decrease the rate of skeletal events. Rates of serious adverse events and quality of life may be similar. It may increase fatigue and may increase the risk of heart failure. Better quality trials would be particularly important to better understand the outcomes related to possible treatment-related harm, for which we only found low-certainty evidence.