The rising burden of non-communicable diseases in the Americas and the impact of population aging: a secondary analysis of available data.

Background: Public health progress in the Americas has reduced the burden of many infectious diseases, helping more people live longer lives. At the same time, the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing. NCD prevention rightly focuses on lifestyle risk factors, social, and economic determinants of health. There is less published information on the importance of population growth and aging to the regional NCD burden. Methods: For 33 countries in the Americas, we used United Nations population data to describe rates of population growth and aging over two generations (1980-2060). We used World Health Organization estimates of mortality and disability (disability-adjusted life years, DALYs) to describe changes in the NCD burden between 2000 and 2019. After combining these data resources, we decomposed the change in the number of deaths and DALYs to estimate the percentage change due to population growth, due to population aging, and due to epidemiological advances, measured by changing mortality and DALY rates. In a supplement, we provide a summary briefing for each country. Findings: In 1980, the proportion of the regional population aged 70 and older was 4.6%. It rose to 7.8% by 2020 and is predicted to rise to 17.4% by 2060. Across the Americas, DALY rate reductions would have decreased the number of DALYs by 18% between 2000 and 2019 but was offset by a 28% increase due to population aging and a 22% increase due to population growth. Although the region enjoyed widespread reductions in rates of disability, these improvements have not been sufficiently large to offset the pressures of population growth and population aging. Interpretation: The region of the Americas is aging and the pace of this aging is predicted to increase. The demographic realities of population growth and population aging should be factored into healthcare planning, to understand their implications for the future NCD burden, the health system needs, and the readiness of governments and communities to respond to those needs. Funding: This work was funded in part by the Pan American Health Organization, Department of Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health.

Adaptation of a community-based type-2 diabetes mellitus remission intervention during COVID-19: empowering persons living with diabetes to take control.

BACKGROUND: The Barbados Diabetes Remission Study-2 reported that a low-calorie diet for weight loss and diabetes remission implemented within the community and supported by trained community health advocates was both an acceptable implementation strategy and a clinically effective intervention. This study aimed to examine the adaptability of the face-to-face protocol into an online modality. METHODS: The Iterative Decision-making for Evaluation of Adaptations (IDEA) framework guides researchers in examining the necessity of the adaptation and the preservation of core intervention elements during the adaptation process. Adaptation outcomes were documented using the Framework for Reporting Adaptations and Modifications to Evidence-Based Implementation Strategies (FRAME-IS). Implementation outcome was determined by fidelity to core elements. Intervention effectiveness was determined from the analysis of clinical data. RESULTS: We decided that an adaptation was needed as COVID-19 control measures prohibited in-person interactions. The core elements-i.e. 12-week intervention duration, daily 840-kcal allowance, and weekly monitoring of weight and blood glucose-could be preserved during the adaptation process. Adaptations were made to the following: (1) the context in which data were collected-participants self-measured at home instead of following the original implementation strategy which involved being measured by community health advocates (CHA) at a community site; (2) the context in which data were entered-participants posted their measurements to a mobile application site which was accessible by CHAs. As with the original protocol, CHAs then entered the measurements into an online database; (3) the formulation of the low-calorie diet-participants substituted the liquid formulation for a solid meal plan of equivalent caloric content. There was non-inferiority in fidelity to attendance with the online format (97.5% visit rate), as compared to the face-to-face modality (95% visit rate). One participant deviated from the calorie allowances citing difficulty in estimating non-exact portion sizes and financial difficulty in procuring meals. Weight change ranged from - 14.3 to 0.4 kg over the 12-week period, and all group members achieved induction of diabetes remission as determined by a FBG of < 7mmol/l and an A1C of < 6.5%. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that this adapted online protocol-which includes changes to both the implementation strategy and the evidence-based practice-is clinically effective whilst maintaining fidelity to key elements. Utilization of the IDEA and FRAME-IS adaptation frameworks add scientific rigour to the research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03536377 . Registered on 24 May 2018.

Anthropometric cut-offs to identify hyperglycemia in an Afro-Caribbean population: a cross-sectional population-based study from Barbados.

INTRODUCTION: Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) cut-offs associated with hyperglycemia may differ by ethnicity. We investigated the optimal BMI and WC cut-offs for identifying hyperglycemia in the predominantly Afro-Caribbean population of Barbados. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 865 individuals aged ≥25 years without known diabetes or cardiovascular disease was conducted. Hyperglycemia was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L or hemoglobin A1c ≥5.7% (39 mmol/mol). The Youden index was used to identify the optimal cut-offs from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Further ROC analysis and multivariable log binomial regression were used to compare standard and data-derived cut-offs. RESULTS: The prevalence of hyperglycemia was 58.9% (95% CI 54.7% to 63.0%). In women, optimal BMI and WC cut-offs (27 kg/m2 and 87 cm, respectively) performed similarly to standard cut-offs. In men, sensitivities of the optimal cut-offs of BMI ≥24 kg/m2 (72.0%) and WC ≥86 cm (74.0%) were higher than those for standard BMI and WC obesity cut-offs (30.0% and 25%-46%, respectively), although with lower specificity. Hyperglycemia was 70% higher in men above the data-derived WC cut-off (prevalence ratio 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). CONCLUSIONS: While BMI and WC cut-offs in Afro-Caribbean women approximate international standards, our findings, consistent with other studies, suggest lowering cut-offs in men may be warranted to improve detection of hyperglycemia. Our findings do, however, require replication in a new data set.

Monitoring Caribbean tobacco use: baseline adolescent smoking prevalence and regional disparities.

OBJECTIVE:: To provide baseline information on tobacco use among adolescents in the Caribbean for the period before country-level implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC). MATERIALS AND METHODS:: Using Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS) between 2000 and 2008, we report baseline prevalence, 5-year change, and disparities in tobacco use (ever smoked, currently smoke) among adolescents. RESULTS:: The Caribbean prevalence of ever-smoked fell from 33.3 to 29.0% with nine of 14 countries reporting a 5-year decrease, and the prevalence of current smokers fell from 12.1 to 11.7% with eight of 14 countries reporting a 5-year decrease. Between-country disparities in the prevalence of ever smoked decreased, while between-country disparities in currently smoked saw little change. CONCLUSIONS:: This regional summary of tobacco use provides baseline estimates of adolescent smoking, and cross-country smoking disparities for the period before MPOWER implementation. Subsequent GYTS survey rounds can be used to monitor program success.

Monitoring Caribbean tobacco use: baseline adolescent smoking prevalence and regional disparities / Monitoreo del consumo de tabaco en el Caribe: línea de base de la prevalencia del consumo de tabaco en adolescentes y disparidades regionales

Abstract: Objective: To provide baseline information on tobacco use among adolescents in the Caribbean for the period before country-level implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC). Materials and methods: Using Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS) between 2000 and 2008, we report baseline prevalence, 5-year change, and disparities in tobacco use (ever smoked, currently smoke) among adolescents. Results: The Caribbean prevalence of ever-smoked fell from 33.3 to 29.0% with nine of 14 countries reporting a 5-year decrease, and the prevalence of current smokers fell from 12.1 to 11.7% with eight of 14 countries reporting a 5-year decrease. Between-country disparities in the prevalence of ever smoked decreased, while between-country disparities in currently smoked saw little change. Conclusions: This regional summary of tobacco use provides baseline estimates of adolescent smoking, and cross-country smoking disparities for the period before MPOWER implementation. Subsequent GYTS survey rounds can be used to monitor program success.

Resumen: Objetivo: Proveer un punto base de referencia sobre el uso de tabaco entre adolescentes de los países del Caribe antes de la implementación a nivel nacional del Convenio Marco para el Control de Tabaco (CMCT OMS). Material y métodos: Mediante la utilización de datos procedentes de la Encuesta Mundial de Tabaquismo en Jóvenes (EMTJ), obtenidos entre los años 2000 y 2008, se presenta la prevalencia del consumo de tabaco, el cambio obtenido en cinco años y las disparidades sobre el uso del tabaco entre los adolescentes (probaron el tabaco, fumadores actuales). Resultados: En el Caribe, la prevalencia de personas que han fumado en algún momento disminuyó de 33.3 a 29.0% y en nueve de 14 países se reportó un descenso en los últimos cinco años. Por otro lado, hubo un descenso en la prevalencia de fumadores actuales de 12.1 a 11.7% y en ocho de 14 países reportaron una disminución del consumo actual de tabaco fumado en los últimos cinco años. Las diferencias entre países en la prevalencia de los adolescentes que probaron tabaco en algún momento disminuyeron, sin embargo, hubo pocos cambios en la prevalencia de fumadores actuales. Conclusión: Este resumen regional sobre el consumo de tabaco proporciona unas estimaciones de referencia sobre el consumo de tabaco en adolescentes, así como sobre las diferencias entre los diferentes países en el periodo de tiempo anterior a la implementación del MPOWER. La implementación de nuevas rondas de la EMTJ se podrá utilizar para monitorear el éxito de la aplicación del paquete MPOWER.

Establishing national noncommunicable disease surveillance in a developing country: a model for small island nations.

Objective To describe the surveillance model used to develop the first national, population-based, multiple noncommunicable disease (NCD) registry in the Caribbean (one of the first of its kind worldwide); registry implementation; lessons learned; and incidence and mortality rates from the first years of operation. Methods Driven by limited national resources, this initiative of the Barbados Ministry of Health (MoH), in collaboration with The University of the West Indies, was designed to collect prospective data on incident stroke and acute myocardial infarction (MI) (heart attack) cases from all health care facilities in this small island developing state (SIDS) in the Eastern Caribbean. Emphasis is on tertiary and emergency health care data sources. Incident cancer cases are obtained retrospectively, primarily from laboratories. Deaths are collected from the national death register. Results Phased introduction of the Barbados National Registry for Chronic NCDs ("the BNR") began with the stroke component ("BNR-Stroke," 2008), followed by the acute MI component ("BNR-Heart," 2009) and the cancer component ("BNR-Cancer," 2010). Expected case numbers projected from prior studies estimated an average of 378 first-ever stroke, 900 stroke, and 372 acute MI patients annually, and registry data showed an annual average of about 238, 593, and 349 patients respectively. There were 1 204 tumors registered in 2008, versus the expected 1 395. Registry data were used to identify public health training themes. Success required building support from local health care professionals and creating island-wide registry awareness. With spending of approximately US$ 148 per event for 2 200 events per year, the program costs the MoH about US$ 1 per capita annually. Conclusions Given the limited absolute health resources available to SIDS, combined surveillance should be considered for building a national NCD evidence base. With prevalence expected to increase further worldwide, Barbados' experiences are offered as a "road map" for other limited-resource countries considering national NCD surveillance.

Establishing national noncommunicable disease surveillance in a developing country: a model for small island nations / Introducción de la vigilancia nacional de las enfermedades no transmisibles en un país en desarrollo: un modelo para las pequeñas naciones insulares

Objective. To describe the surveillance model used to develop the first national, populationbased, multiple noncommunicable disease (NCD) registry in the Caribbean (one of the first of its kind worldwide); registry implementation; lessons learned; and incidence and mortality rates from the first years of operation. Methods. Driven by limited national resources, this initiative of the Barbados Ministry of Health (MoH), in collaboration with The University of the West Indies, was designed to collect prospective data on incident stroke and acute myocardial infarction (MI) (heart attack) cases from all health care facilities in this small island developing state (SIDS) in the Eastern Caribbean. Emphasis is on tertiary and emergency health care data sources. Incident cancer cases are obtained retrospectively, primarily from laboratories. Deaths are collected from the national death register. Results. Phased introduction of the Barbados National Registry for Chronic NCDs (“the BNR”) began with the stroke component (“BNR–Stroke,” 2008), followed by the acute MI component (“BNR–Heart,” 2009) and the cancer component (“BNR–Cancer,” 2010). Expected case numbers projected from prior studies estimated an average of 378 first-ever stroke, 900 stroke, and 372 acute MI patients annually, and registry data showed an annual average of about 238, 593, and 349 patients respectively. There were 1 204 tumors registered in 2008, versus the expected 1 395. Registry data were used to identify public health training themes. Success required building support from local health care professionals and creating island-wide registry awareness. With spending of approximately US$ 148 per event for 2 200 events per year, the program costs the MoH about US$ 1 per capita annually. Conclusions. Given the limited absolute health resources available to SIDS, combined surveillance should be considered for building a national NCD evidence base. With prevalence expected to increase further worldwide, Barbados’ experiences are offered as a “road map” for other limitedresource countries considering national NCD surveillance.

Objetivo. Describir el modelo de vigilancia que se utilizó para crear el primer registro poblacional nacional de múltiples enfermedades no transmisibles en el Caribe (uno de los primeros registros de esta clase en el mundo), la ejecución del registro, las lecciones aprendidas y las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad desde sus primeros años de funcionamiento. Métodos. Esta iniciativa del Ministerio de Salud de Barbados, realizada en colaboración con la Universidad de las Indias Occidentales e impulsada por la limitación de los recursos nacionales, tuvo por finalidad recoger datos prospectivos sobre los casos nuevos de accidente cerebrovascular e infarto agudo de miocardio en todos los establecimientos de atención de salud de este pequeño estado insular en desarrollo del Caribe oriental. El análisis se centró en las fuentes de datos sobre la atención de salud terciaria y de urgencia. La información sobre los casos nuevos de cáncer se obtuvo de manera retrospectiva, principalmente de los laboratorios. Los datos sobre las defunciones se tomaron del registro nacional de mortalidad. Resultados. La introducción progresiva del Registro Nacional de Enfermedades Crónicas no Transmisibles de Barbados se inició con el componente de los accidentes cerebrovasculares en 2008, seguido del componente de infarto agudo de miocardio en 2009 y el componente de cáncer en 2010. Las estimaciones previstas con base en los estudios anteriores fueron en promedio de 378 casos de un primer accidente cerebrovascular, 900 casos de accidente cerebrovascular y 372 pacientes con infarto agudo de miocardio cada año; los datos del registro mostraron un promedio anual cercano a 238, 593 y 349 casos respectivamente. En el 2008, se registraron 1204 casos de cáncer, frente a los 1395 previstos. En función de los datos del registro se definieron los temas de capacitación en salud pública. El éxito de la iniciativa exigió fomentar el apoyo de los profesionales de salud a nivel local y dar a conocer la existencia del registro en toda la isla. Con un gasto cercano a 148 dólares por episodio y 2200 episodios por año, el programa cuesta al Ministerio de Salud alrededor de un dólar por habitante cada año. Conclusiones. Dada la limitación de los recursos absolutos destinados a la salud en los pequeños estados insulares en desarrollo, es preciso analizar la posibilidad de realizar una vigilancia combinada, con el objeto de crear una base nacional de datos fidedignos sobre las enfermedades no transmisibles. Ante la perspectiva de un aumento continuo de la prevalencia mundial, la experiencia en Barbados se ofrece como una “hoja de ruta” destinada a otros países con recursos limitado

Establishing national noncommunicable disease surveillance in a developing country: a model for small island nations / Introducción de la vigilancia nacional de las enfermedades no transmisibles en un país en desarrollo: un modelo para las pequeñas naciones insulares

ABSTRACT Objective To describe the surveillance model used to develop the first national, population-based, multiple noncommunicable disease (NCD) registry in the Caribbean (one of the first of its kind worldwide); registry implementation; lessons learned; and incidence and mortality rates from the first years of operation. Methods Driven by limited national resources, this initiative of the Barbados Ministry of Health (MoH), in collaboration with The University of the West Indies, was designed to collect prospective data on incident stroke and acute myocardial infarction (MI) (heart attack) cases from all health care facilities in this small island developing state (SIDS) in the Eastern Caribbean. Emphasis is on tertiary and emergency health care data sources. Incident cancer cases are obtained retrospectively, primarily from laboratories. Deaths are collected from the national death register. Results Phased introduction of the Barbados National Registry for Chronic NCDs (“the BNR”) began with the stroke component (“BNR–Stroke,” 2008), followed by the acute MI component (“BNR–Heart,” 2009) and the cancer component (“BNR–Cancer,” 2010). Expected case numbers projected from prior studies estimated an average of 378 first-ever stroke, 900 stroke, and 372 acute MI patients annually, and registry data showed an annual average of about 238, 593, and 349 patients respectively. There were 1 204 tumors registered in 2008, versus the expected 1 395. Registry data were used to identify public health training themes. Success required building support from local health care professionals and creating island-wide registry awareness. With spending of approximately US$ 148 per event for 2 200 events per year, the program costs the MoH about US$ 1 per capita annually. Conclusions Given the limited absolute health resources available to SIDS, combined surveillance should be considered for building a national NCD evidence base. With prevalence expected to increase further worldwide, Barbados’ experiences are offered as a “road map” for other limited-resource countries considering national NCD surveillance.

RESUMEN Objetivo Describir el modelo de vigilancia que se utilizó para crear el primer registro poblacional nacional de múltiples enfermedades no transmisibles en el Caribe (uno de los primeros registros de esta clase en el mundo), la ejecución del registro, las lecciones aprendidas y las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad desde sus primeros años de funcionamiento. Métodos Esta iniciativa del Ministerio de Salud de Barbados, realizada en colaboración con la Universidad de las Indias Occidentales e impulsada por la limitación de los recursos nacionales, tuvo por finalidad recoger datos prospectivos sobre los casos nuevos de accidente cerebrovascular e infarto agudo de miocardio en todos los establecimientos de atención de salud de este pequeño estado insular en desarrollo del Caribe oriental. El análisis se centró en las fuentes de datos sobre la atención de salud terciaria y de urgencia. La información sobre los casos nuevos de cáncer se obtuvo de manera retrospectiva, principalmente de los laboratorios. Los datos sobre las defunciones se tomaron del registro nacional de mortalidad. Resultados La introducción progresiva del Registro Nacional de Enfermedades Crónicas no Transmisibles de Barbados se inició con el componente de los accidentes cerebrovasculares en 2008, seguido del componente de infarto agudo de miocardio en 2009 y el componente de cáncer en 2010. Las estimaciones previstas con base en los estudios anteriores fueron en promedio de 378 casos de un primer accidente cerebrovascular, 900 casos de accidente cerebrovascular y 372 pacientes con infarto agudo de miocardio cada año; los datos del registro mostraron un promedio anual cercano a 238, 593 y 349 casos respectivamente. En el 2008, se registraron 1204 casos de cáncer, frente a los 1395 previstos. En función de los datos del registro se definieron los temas de capacitación en salud pública. El éxito de la iniciativa exigió fomentar el apoyo de los profesionales de salud a nivel local y dar a conocer la existencia del registro en toda la isla. Con un gasto cercano a 148 dólares por episodio y 2200 episodios por año, el programa cuesta al Ministerio de Salud alrededor de un dólar por habitante cada año. Conclusiones Dada la limitación de los recursos absolutos destinados a la salud en los pequeños estados insulares en desarrollo, es preciso analizar la posibilidad de realizar una vigilancia combinada, con el objeto de crear una base nacional de datos fidedignos sobre las enfermedades no transmisibles. Ante la perspectiva de un aumento continuo de la prevalencia mundial, la experiencia en Barbados se ofrece como una “hoja de ruta” destinada a otros países con recursos limitados que planean introducir la vigilancia nacional de las enfermedades no transmisibles.