Validation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models for Clozapine Dosage Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Clozapine is unique in its capacity to ameliorate severe schizophrenia but at high risk of toxicity. A relationship between blood concentration and clinical response and evidence for concentration-response relationships to some adverse effects justify therapeutic drug monitoring of clozapine. However, the relationship between drug dose and blood concentration is quite variable. This variability is, in part, due to inductive and inhibitory interactions varying the activity of cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2), the principal pathway for clozapine elimination. Several population pharmacokinetic models have been presented to facilitate dose selection and to identify poor adherence in individual patients. These models have faced little testing for validity in independent populations or even for persisting validity in the source population. METHODS: Therefore, we collected a large population of clozapine-treated patients (127 patients, 1048 timed plasma concentrations) in whom dosing and covariate information could be obtained with high certainty. A population pharmacokinetic model was constructed with data collected in the first 6 weeks from study enrolment (448 plasma concentrations), to estimate covariate influences and to allow alignment with previously published models. The model was tested for its performance in predicting the concentrations observed at later time intervals up to 5 years. The predictive performances of 6 published clozapine population models were then assessed in the entire population. RESULTS: The population pharmacokinetic model based on the first 6 weeks identified significant influences of sex, smoking, and cotreatment with fluvoxamine on clozapine clearance. The model built from the first 6 weeks had acceptable predictive performance in the same patient population up to the first 26 weeks using individual parameters, with a median predictive error (PE) of -0.1% to -15.9% and median absolute PE of 22.9%-27.1%. Predictive performance fell progressively with time after 26 weeks. Bayesian addition of plasma concentration observations within each prediction period improved individual predictions. Three additional observations extended acceptable predictive performance into the second 6 months of therapy. When the published models were tested with the entire data set, median PE ranged from -8% to +35% with a median absolute PE of >39% in all models. Thus, none of the tested models was successful in external validation. Bayesian addition of single patient observations improved individual predictions from all models but still without achieving acceptable performances. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the relationship between covariates and blood clozapine concentrations differs between populations and that relationships are not stable over time within a population. Current population models for clozapine are not capturing influential covariates.

Field validity, reproducibility and feasibility of diagnostic tests for visceral leishmaniasis in rural Nepal.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the field accuracy, reproducibility and feasibility of the formol gel test (FGT), the urine latex agglutination test (KAtex) and a rK39 antigen-based dipstick for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in rural Nepal. METHOD: Patients with clinical suspicion of VL were recruited at Rangeli District Hospital (DH), a 15-bed government hospital located in south-eastern Nepal. FGT, KAtex and rK39 dipstick tests were performed on site and later repeated at a reference kala-azar diagnostic laboratory to assess reproducibility. Diagnosis of VL was confirmed by either a positive bone marrow aspirate examination or a positive direct agglutination test (DAT titre > or = 1:3200) in patients who later responded to anti-leishmanial therapy. RESULTS: Of 155 patients initially recruited, 142 (85 with VL and 57 with another diagnosis) were included in the study. The sensitivity of the rK39 dipstick [89%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 81-94] was significantly higher than that of the KAtex (57%; 95% CI: 46-67) and the FGT (52%; 95% CI: 41-62). All three tests had a specificity of at least 90%. Agreement was higher for the rK39 dipstick (kappa = 0.87) than for the FGT (0.68) and the KAtex (0.43). All tests required < or = 20 min of actual work and < or = 40 min to obtain the results. CONCLUSION: The rK39 dipstick was easy to do, more accurate and reproducible than other rapid diagnostic tests for VL in a DH of rural Nepal. It should be integrated into the field diagnostic algorithm of VL in this region and mechanisms to secure its availability should be found.