Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Control Measures during COVID-19 Surge, Taiwan, April-August 2021.

An unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan in May 2021 led the government to implement strict nationwide control measures beginning May 15. During the surge, the government was able to bring the epidemic under control without a complete lockdown despite the cumulative case count reaching >14,400 and >780 deaths. We investigated the effectiveness of the public health and social measures instituted by the Taiwan government by quantifying the change in the effective reproduction number, which is a summary measure of the ability of the pathogen to spread through the population. The control measures that were instituted reduced the effective reproduction number from 2.0-3.3 to 0.6-0.7. This decrease was correlated with changes in mobility patterns in Taiwan, demonstrating that public compliance, active case finding, and contact tracing were effective measures in preventing further spread of the disease.

Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan.

Importance: Taiwan is one of the few countries with initial success in COVID-19 control without strict lockdown or school closure. The reasons remain to be fully elucidated. Objective: To compare and evaluate the effectiveness of case-based (including contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (including social distancing and facial masking) interventions for COVID-19 in Taiwan. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study used a stochastic branching process model using COVID-19 epidemic data from Taiwan, an island nation of 23.6 million people, with no locally acquired cases of COVID-19 reported for 253 days between April and December 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effective reproduction number of COVID-19 cases (the number of secondary cases generated by 1 primary case) and the probability of outbreak extinction (0 new cases within 20 generations). For model development and calibration, an estimation of the incubation period (interval from exposure to symptom onset), serial interval (time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair), and the statistical distribution of the number of any subsequent infections generated by 1 primary case was calculated. Results: This study analyzed data from 158 confirmed COVID-19 cases (median age, 45 years; interquartile range, 25-55 years; 84 men [53%]). An estimated 55% (95% credible interval [CrI], 41%-68%) of transmission events occurred during the presymptomatic stage. In our estimated analysis, case detection, contact tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts (regardless of symptoms) was estimated to decrease the reproduction number from the counterfactual value of 2.50 to 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.50-1.57), which would not be sufficient for epidemic control, which requires a value of less than 1. In our estimated analysis, voluntary population-based interventions, if used alone, were estimated to have reduced the reproduction number to 1.30 (95% CrI, 1.03-1.58). Combined case-based and population-based interventions were estimated to reduce the reproduction number to below unity (0.85; 95% CrI, 0.78-0.89). Results were similar for additional analyses with influenza data and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study, the combination of case-based and population-based interventions (with wide adherence) may explain the success of COVID-19 control in Taiwan in 2020. Either category of interventions alone would have been insufficient, even in a country with an effective public health system and comprehensive contact tracing program. Mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic requires the collaborative effort of public health professionals and the general public.

Risk assessment for COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Event-based surveillance and rapid risk assessment for acute public health events are essential in emerging infectious disease control. Since detecting the unusual signal in Wuhan in December 2019, Taiwan has been aligning risk management to policy planning via conducting regular risk assessments to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This article aims to provide some insights into Taiwan's experiences and corresponding actions for the outbreak. RESULTS: The COVID-19 risk level in Taiwan was raised to "moderate-to-high" in mid-January 2020 when neighboring countries had reported cases and the human-to-human transmission became obvious. The risk level became "high" on 24 January due to China's escalating epidemic situation and imposed a lockdown in Wuhan. We learned that the commander recognized the importance of risk assessments and considered advice from the experts was crucial in making the correct decision at the early stage of the crisis. CONCLUSIONS: Given the surge of COVID-19 cases globally, understanding the evidence-driven mobilizations via detailed risk assessments in Taiwan may be an example worth considering for other countries. We believe that strengthening a global epidemic intelligence network and sharing information in a timely and transparent manner are essential for confronting new challenges of COVID-19 and other emerging infectious diseases.

Taiwan's COVID-19 response: Timely case detection and quarantine, January to June 2020.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become severe threats to economic, societal, and healthcare systems. To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan and evaluate the key interventions, we conducted a retrospective cohort study during January 17-June 30, 2020. As of June 30, the COVID-19 outbreak, including 447 laboratory-confirmed cases, was eliminated by mixed approaches: border control, enhanced surveillance, case detection with contact tracing, quarantine, and population-based interventions like face mask use. The improvement of median time from disease onset to notification (5 days [range -3 to 27] before March 1 to 1 day [range -8 to 22] after March 1) suggested the timeliness and comprehensiveness of surveillance and contact tracing. Travel restrictions with quarantine, resulting in fewer clusters, were also complementary to minimize disease spread. Under combined interventions, Taiwan successfully contained the COVID-19 spread within the country and minimized its impact on the society.

Contact tracing with digital assistance in Taiwan's COVID-19 outbreak response.

AIM: Comprehensive case investigation and contact tracing are crucial to prevent community spread of COVID-19. We demonstrated a utility of using traditional contact tracing measures supplemented with symptom tracking and contact management system to assist public health workers with high efficiency. METHODS: A centralized contact tracing system was developed to support data linkage, cross-jurisdictional coordination, and follow-up of contacts' health status. We illustrated the process of how digital tools support contact tracing and management of COVID-19 cases and measured the timeliness from case detection to contact monitoring to evaluate system performance. RESULTS: Among the 8051 close contacts of the 487 confirmed cases (16.5 close contacts/case, 95% CI [13.9-19.1]), the median elapsed time from last exposure to quarantine was three days (IQR 1-5). By implementing the approach of self-reporting using automatic text-messages and web-app, the percentage of health status updates from self-reporting increased from 22.5% to 61.5%. The high proportion of secondary cases detected via contact tracing (88%) might reduce the R0 to under one and minimize the impact of local transmission in the community. CONCLUSION: Comprehensive contact tracing and management with complementary technology would still be a pillar of strategies for containing outbreaks during de-escalation or early in the next wave of COVID-19 pandemic.

Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.

Importance: The dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmissibility are yet to be fully understood. Better understanding of the transmission dynamics is important for the development and evaluation of effective control policies. Objective: To delineate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and evaluate the transmission risk at different exposure window periods before and after symptom onset. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective case-ascertained study in Taiwan included laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their contacts. The study period was from January 15 to March 18, 2020. All close contacts were quarantined at home for 14 days after their last exposure to the index case. During the quarantine period, any relevant symptoms (fever, cough, or other respiratory symptoms) of contacts triggered a COVID-19 test. The final follow-up date was April 2, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Secondary clinical attack rate (considering symptomatic cases only) for different exposure time windows of the index cases and for different exposure settings (such as household, family, and health care). Results: We enrolled 100 confirmed patients, with a median age of 44 years (range, 11-88 years), including 44 men and 56 women. Among their 2761 close contacts, there were 22 paired index-secondary cases. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 0.7% (95% CI, 0.4%-1.0%). The attack rate was higher among the 1818 contacts whose exposure to index cases started within 5 days of symptom onset (1.0% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%]) compared with those who were exposed later (0 cases from 852 contacts; 95% CI, 0%-0.4%). The 299 contacts with exclusive presymptomatic exposures were also at risk (attack rate, 0.7% [95% CI, 0.2%-2.4%]). The attack rate was higher among household (4.6% [95% CI, 2.3%-9.3%]) and nonhousehold (5.3% [95% CI, 2.1%-12.8%]) family contacts than that in health care or other settings. The attack rates were higher among those aged 40 to 59 years (1.1% [95% CI, 0.6%-2.1%]) and those aged 60 years and older (0.9% [95% CI, 0.3%-2.6%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, high transmissibility of COVID-19 before and immediately after symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to contain the epidemic, and more generalized measures may be required, such as social distancing.

Real-Time Surveillance of Infectious Diseases: Taiwan's Experience.

Integration of multiple surveillance systems advances early warning and supports better decision making during infectious disease events. Taiwan has a comprehensive network of laboratory, epidemiologic, and early warning surveillance systems with nationwide representation. Hospitals and clinical laboratories have deployed automatic reporting mechanisms since 2014 and have effectively improved timeliness of infectious disease and laboratory data reporting. In June 2016, the capacity of real-time surveillance in Taiwan was externally assessed and was found to have a demonstrated and sustainable capability. We describe Taiwan's disease surveillance system and use surveillance efforts for influenza and Zika virus as examples of surveillance capability. Timely and integrated influenza information showed a higher level and extended pattern of influenza activity during the 2015-16 season, which ensured prompt information dissemination and the coordination of response operations. Taiwan also has well-developed disease detection systems and was the first country to report imported cases of Zika virus from Miami Beach and Singapore. This illustrates a high level of awareness and willingness among health workers to report emerging infectious diseases, and highlights the robust and sensitive nature of Taiwan's surveillance system. These 2 examples demonstrate the flexibility of the surveillance systems in Taiwan to adapt to emerging infectious diseases and major communicable diseases. Through participation in the GHSA, Taiwan can more actively collaborate with national counterparts and use its expertise to strengthen global and regional surveillance capacity in the Asia Pacific and in Southeast Asia, in order to advance a world safe and secure from infectious disease.

Susceptibility of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti to three imported Chikungunya virus strains, including the E1/226V variant in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: An E1/226V variant Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) efficiently transmitted by Aedes albopictus to humans poses a significant threat to public health for those areas with the presence of Aedes albopictus, including Taiwan. METHODS: We infected three imported CHIKV isolates including the E1/226V variant with Ae. albopictus and Aedes aegypti in the laboratory to understand the disease risk. Viral RNA was measured by real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The viral susceptibility varied by virus strain and mosquito species and strain. The Asian virus strain started to replicate at 5-6 days post infection (dpi) with the maximum virus yield, ranging from 10(3.63) to 10(3.87) at 5-10 dpi in both species. The variant CHIKV Central/East/South African (CESA) virus genotype replicated earlier at 1 dpi with the maximum virus yield ranging from 10(5.63) to 10(6.52) at 3-6 dpi in Ae. albopictus females while the nonvariant virus strain replicated at 1-2 dpi with the maximum virus yield ranging from 10(5.51) to 10(6.27) at 6-12 dpi. In Ae. aegypti, these viruses replicated at 1-2 dpi, with maximum yields at 4-5 dpi (range from 10(5.38) to 10(5.62)). CONCLUSION: We concluded that the risk of CHIKV in Taiwan is high in all distribution areas of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the CESA genotype and that the E1/226V variant virus strain presents an even higher risk.

A dengue vector surveillance by human population-stratified ovitrap survey for Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) adult and egg collections in high dengue-risk areas of Taiwan.

Aedes aegypti L. is the primary dengue vector in southern Taiwan. This article is the first report on a large-scale surveillance program to study the spatial-temporal distribution of the local Ae. aegytpi population using ovitraps stratified according to the human population in high dengue-risk areas. The sampling program was conducted for 1 yr and was based on weekly collections of eggs and adults in Kaohsiung City. In total, 10,380 ovitraps were placed in 5,190 households. Paired ovitraps, one indoors and one outdoors were used per 400 people. Three treatments in these ovitraps (paddle-shaped wooden sticks, sticky plastic, or both) were assigned by stratified random sampling to two areas (i.e., metropolitan or rural, respectively). We found that the sticky plastic alone had a higher sensitivity for detecting the occurrence of indigenous dengue cases than other treatments with time lags of up to 14 wk. The wooden paddle alone detected the oviposition of Ae. aegypti throughout the year in this study area. Furthermore, significantly more Ae. aegypti females were collected indoors than outdoors. Therefore, our survey identified the whole year oviposition activity, spatial-temporal distribution of the local Ae. aegypti population and a 14 wk lag correlation with dengue incidence to plan an effectively proactive control.

Comparison of the efficacy of CO2-baited and unbaited light traps, gravid traps, backpack aspirators, and sweep net collections for sampling mosquitoes infected with Japanese encephalitis virus.

Two field studies were conducted to determine the efficacy of mosquito collection methods for species composition, species abundance, and Japanese encephalitis virus infection rates in Taiwan. Traps evaluated included John W. Hock (JH) model UD black light traps, JH model 1012 new standard miniature CDC light traps, JH model 1712 CDC gravid traps, and Taiwan-made Pest-O-Lite light traps. Backpack aspirators and sweep nets were also used to collect the resting population. Culex tritaeniorhynchus in all studies and Mansonia uniformis in the Taipei areas were the two most abundance species collected. Dry ice-baited UD black light traps were effective in regard to species diversity, species abundance, and Japanese encephalitis virus infection rates. The unbaited Pest-O-Lite light traps collected significantly more female mosquitoes than the UD black light traps but performed similarly with regard to species diversity and male mosquito collection. Most mosquitoes collected by Pest-O-Lite light traps were dried and not suitable for virus detection. Dry ice-baited CDC light traps collected significantly fewer mosquitoes than other light traps. Although CO(2) -baited UD black light traps with octenol attracted more mosquitoes, no statistical significance was found compared to CO(2) -baited UD black light traps without octenol. Japanese encephalitis viruses were isolated from half of the positive pools in UD black light traps and CDC light traps.