Coevolving early afterslip and aftershock signatures of a San Andreas fault rupture.

Large earthquakes often lead to transient deformation and enhanced seismic activity, with their fastest evolution occurring at the early, ephemeral post-rupture period. Here, we investigate this elusive phase using geophysical observations from the 2004 moment magnitude 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. We image continuously evolving afterslip, along with aftershocks, on the San Andreas fault over a minutes-to-days postseismic time span. Our results reveal a multistage scenario, including immediate onset of afterslip following tens-of-seconds-long coseismic shaking, short-lived slip reversals within minutes, expanding afterslip within hours, and slip migration between subparallel fault strands within days. The early afterslip and associated stress changes appear synchronized with local aftershock rates, with increasing afterslip often preceding larger aftershocks, suggesting the control of afterslip on fine-scale aftershock behavior. We interpret complex shallow processes as dynamic signatures of a three-dimensional fault-zone structure. These findings highlight important roles of aseismic source processes and structural factors in seismicity evolution, offering potential prospects for improving aftershock forecasts.

Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard.

The 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: mosaicking the megathrust from seconds to centuries.

Geophysical observations from the 2011 moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake allow exploration of a rare large event along a subduction megathrust. Models for this event indicate that the distribution of coseismic fault slip exceeded 50 meters in places. Sources of high-frequency seismic waves delineate the edges of the deepest portions of coseismic slip and do not simply correlate with the locations of peak slip. Relative to the M(w) 8.8 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake, the Tohoku-Oki earthquake was deficient in high-frequency seismic radiation--a difference that we attribute to its relatively shallow depth. Estimates of total fault slip and surface secular strain accumulation on millennial time scales suggest the need to consider the potential for a future large earthquake just south of this event.