The Epidemiology of Cholera in Zanzibar: Implications for the Zanzibar Comprehensive Cholera Elimination Plan.

Background: Cholera poses a public health and economic threat to Zanzibar. Detailed epidemiologic analyses are needed to inform a multisectoral cholera elimination plan currently under development. Methods: We collated passive surveillance data from 1997 to 2017 and calculated the outbreak-specific and cumulative incidence of suspected cholera per shehia (neighborhood). We explored the variability in shehia-specific relative cholera risk and explored the predictive power of targeting intervention at shehias based on historical incidence. Using flexible regression models, we estimated cholera's seasonality and the relationship between rainfall and cholera transmission. Results: From 1997 and 2017, 11921 suspected cholera cases were reported across 87% of Zanzibar's shehias, representing an average incidence rate of 4.4 per 10000/year. The geographic distribution of cases across outbreaks was variable, although a number of high-burden areas were identified. Outbreaks were highly seasonal with 2 high-risk periods corresponding to the annual rainy seasons. Conclusions: Shehia-targeted interventions should be complemented with island-wide cholera prevention activities given the spatial variability in cholera risk from outbreak to outbreak. In-depth risk factor analyses should be conducted in the high-burden shehias. The seasonal nature of cholera provides annual windows of opportunity for cholera preparedness activities.

Effectiveness of an oral cholera vaccine in Zanzibar: findings from a mass vaccination campaign and observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Zanzibar, in east Africa, has been severely and repeatedly affected by cholera since 1978. We assessed the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccination in high-risk populations in the archipelago to estimate the indirect (herd) protection conferred by the vaccine and direct vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: We offered two doses of a killed whole-cell B-subunit cholera vaccine to individuals aged 2 years and older in six rural and urban sites. To estimate vaccine direct protection, we compared the incidence of cholera between recipients and non-recipients using generalised estimating equations with the log link function while controlling for potential confounding variables. To estimate indirect effects, we used a geographic information systems approach and assessed the association between neighbourhood-level vaccine coverage and the risk for cholera in the non-vaccinated residents of that neighbourhood, after controlling for potential confounding variables. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00709410. FINDINGS: Of 48,178 individuals eligible to receive the vaccine, 23,921 (50%) received two doses. Between February, 2009, and May, 2010, there was an outbreak of cholera, enabling us to assess vaccine effectiveness. The vaccine conferred 79% (95% CI 47-92) direct protection against cholera in participants who received two doses. Indirect (herd) protection was shown by a decrease in the risk for cholera of non-vaccinated residents within a household's neighbourhood as the vaccine coverage in that neighbourhood increased. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that the oral cholera vaccine offers both direct and indirect (herd) protection in a sub-Saharan African setting. Mass oral cholera immunisation campaigns have the potential to provide not only protection for vaccinated individuals but also for the unvaccinated members of the community and should be strongly considered for wider use. Because this is an internationally-licensed vaccine, we could not undertake a randomised placebo-controlled trial, but the absence of vaccine effectiveness against non-cholera diarrhoea indicates that the noted protection against cholera could not be explained by bias. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, and the South Korean Government.

Paperless registration during survey enumerations and large oral cholera mass vaccination in Zanzibar, the United Republic of Tanzania.

PROBLEM: Field trials require extensive data preparation and complex logistics. The use of personal digital assistants (PDAs) can bypass many of the traditional steps that are necessary in a paper-based data entry system. APPROACH: We programmed, designed and supervised the use of PDAs for a large survey enumeration and mass vaccination campaign. LOCAL SETTING: The project was implemented in Zanzibar in the United Republic of Tanzania. Zanzibar is composed of two main islands, Unguja and Pemba, where outbreaks of cholera have been reported since the 1970s. RELEVANT CHANGES: PDAs allowed us to digitize information at the initial point of contact with the respondents. Immediate response by the system in case of error helped ensure the quality and reliability of the data. PDAs provided quick data summaries that allowed subsequent research activities to be implemented in a timely fashion. LESSONS LEARNT: Portability, immediate recording and linking of information enhanced structure data collection in our study. PDAs could be more useful than paper-based systems for data collection in the field, especially in impoverished settings in developing countries.