Antigenic minimalism of SARS-CoV-2 is linked to surges in COVID-19 community transmission and vaccine breakthrough infections

The raging COVID-19 pandemic in India and reports of "vaccine breakthrough infections" globally have raised alarm mandating the characterization of the immuno-evasive features of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we systematically analyzed 1.57 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 187 countries/territories and performed whole-genome viral sequencing from 53 COVID-19 patients, including 20 vaccine breakthrough infections. We identified 89 Spike protein mutations that increased in prevalence during at least one surge in SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in any country over a three-month window. Deletions in the Spike protein N-terminal domain (NTD) are highly enriched for these surge-associated mutations (Odds Ratio = 41.8, 95% CI: 6.36-1758, p-value = 7.7e-05). In the recent COVID-19 surge in India, an NTD deletion ({Delta}F157/R158) increased over 10-fold in prevalence from February 2021 (1.1%) to April 2021 (15%). During the recent surge in Chile, an NTD deletion ({Delta}246-253) increased rapidly over 30-fold in prevalence from January 2021 (0.86%) to April 2021 (33%). Strikingly, these simultaneously emerging deletions associated with surges in different parts of the world both occur at an antigenic supersite that is targeted by neutralizing antibodies. Finally, we generated clinically annotated SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences and identified deletions within this NTD antigenic supersite in a patient with vaccine breakthrough infection ({Delta}156-164) and other deletions from unvaccinated severe COVID-19 patients that could represent emerging deletion-prone regions. Overall, the expanding repertoire of Spike protein deletions throughout the pandemic and their association with case surges and vaccine breakthrough infections point to antigenic minimalism as an emerging evolutionary strategy for SARS-CoV-2 to evade immune responses. This study highlights the urgent need to sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes at a larger scale globally and to mandate a public health policy for transparent reporting of relevant clinical annotations (e.g. vaccination status) in order to aid the development of comprehensive therapeutic strategies.

Quantifying the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 long-term shedding among non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Analysis of 851 COVID-19 patients with a SARS-CoV-2-positive PCR at follow-up shows 99 patients remained SARS-CoV-2-positive after four weeks from initial diagnosis. Surprisingly, a majority of these long-term viral RNA shedders were not hospitalized (61 of 99), with variable PCR Crossing point values over the month post diagnosis. For the 851-patient cohort, the mean lower bound of viral RNA shedding was 17.3 days (SD: 7.8), and the mean upper bound of viral RNA shedding from 668 patients transitioning to confirmed PCR-negative status was 22.7 days (SD: 11.8). Among 104 patients with an IgG test result, 90 patients were seropositive to date, with mean upper bound of time to seropositivity from initial diagnosis being 37.8 days (95%CI: 34.3-41.3). Juxtaposing IgG/PCR tests revealed that 14 of 90 patients are non-hospitalized and seropositive yet shed viral RNA. This study emphasizes the need for monitoring viral loads and neutralizing antibody titers in long-term shedders.