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BackgroundThere are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. MethodsPHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35{middle dot}6% were female, mean age 58{middle dot}7 (SD 12{middle dot}5) years, and 27{middle dot}8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/1965 (25{middle dot}5%) and one year 232/804 (28{middle dot}9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0{middle dot}68 (95% CI 0{middle dot}46-0{middle dot}99), obesity OR 0{middle dot}50 (95%CI 0{middle dot}34-0{middle dot}74) and IMV OR 0{middle dot}42 (95%CI 0{middle dot}23-0{middle dot}76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0{middle dot}88 (0{middle dot}74-1{middle dot}00), five months 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}60-0{middle dot}88) to one year: 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}59-0{middle dot}88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. InterpretationThe sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FundingUKRI & NIHR Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe systematically searched PubMed and Embase databases for large studies reporting one-year follow-up data for hospitalised COVID-19 patients published between January 1, 2021 and November 7, 2021, without language restrictions. Search terms related to COVID-19, hospitalisation and long-term follow-up were used. A large prospective cohort study from Wuhan, China (n = 1276) showed that 49% of patients reported at least one persistent symptom during a follow-up clinic visit at 12 months post COVID-19; no significant improvement in exercise capacity was observed between six- and 12-month visits. Another two large cohort studies in China (n = 2433) and Spain (n = 1950) with one-year follow-up data from telephone interviews showed that 45% and 81% of patients reported at least one residual COVID-19 symptom, respectively. However, no previous studies have compared the trajectories of COVID-19 recovery in patients classified by different clinical phenotypes, and there are no large studies investigating the relationship between systemic inflammation and ongoing health impairments post COVID-19. Added value of this studyIn a diverse population of adults post-hospital admission with COVID-19, our large UK prospective multi-centre study reports several novel findings: the minority felt fully recovered at one year with minimal recovery from five months across any health domain; female sex and obesity are associated with being less likely to feel fully recovered at one year; several inflammatory mediators were increased in individuals with the most severe physical, mental health, and cognitive impairments compared to individuals with milder ongoing impairments. Implications of all the available evidenceBoth pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions are urgently needed to improve the ongoing burden following hospitalisation for COVID-19 both for individuals and healthcare systems; our findings support the use of a precision medicine approach with potential treatable traits of systemic inflammation and obesity.
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ObjectivesTo estimate the absolute risk of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in the two weeks following a diagnosis of COVID-19, and to assess the relative risks (RR) compared to influenza or the administration of an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19. DesignRetrospective cohort study based on an electronic health records network SettingLinked records between primary and secondary care centres within 59 healthcare organisations, primarily in the USA ParticipantsAll patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 20, 2020 and March 25, 2021 were included (N=537,913, mean [SD] age: 46.2 [21.4] years; 54.9% females). Cohorts (matched for age, sex, and race) of participants diagnosed with influenza (N=392,424) or receiving the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine (N=366,869) were used for comparison. Main outcome measuresDiagnosis of CVT (ICD-10 code I67.6) or PVT (ICD-10 code I81) within 2 weeks after a diagnosis of COVID-19. ResultsThe incidence of CVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 42.8 per million people (95% CI 28.5-64.2) including 35.3 per million (95% CI 22.6-55.2) first diagnoses. This was significantly higher than the CVT incidence in a matched cohort of patients with influenza (RR=3.83, 95% CI 1.56-9.41, P<0.001) and people who received an mRNA vaccine (RR=6.67, 95% CI 1.98-22.43, P<0.001). The incidence of PVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 392.3 per million people (95% CI 342.8-448.9) including 175.0 per million (95% CI 143.0-214.1) first diagnoses. This was significantly higher than the PVT incidence in a matched cohort of patients with influenza (RR=1.39, 95% CI 1.06-1.83, P=0.02) and people who received an mRNA vaccine (RR=7.40, 95% CI 4.87-11.24, P<0.001). Mortality after CVT and PVT was 17.4% and 19.9% respectively. ConclusionsThe incidence of CVT and PVT is significantly increased after COVID-19. The data highlight the risk of serious thrombotic events in COVID-19 and can help contextualize the risks and benefits of vaccination in this regard. What is known- A systematic review of cohort studies suggested an incidence of CVT among hospitalised patients with COVID-19 to be about 800 per million patients. There was evidence of selection, ascertainment, and reporting bias in all included studies. - The incidence of CVT and PVT among both hospitalised and non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 is unknown. - It is unknown if COVID-19 increases the risk of CVT and PVT. What this study addsOur study estimates that the absolute risk of CVT and PVT are respectively 42.8 and 392.3 per million patients (both hospitalised and non-hospitalised) in the 2 weeks after a diagnosis of COVID-19. COVID-19 increases the risk of CVT and PVT compared to patients diagnosed with influenza, and to people who have received a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine.
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BackgroundThe impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health, and employment following hospitalisation is poorly understood. MethodsPHOSP-COVID is a multi-centre, UK, observational study of adults discharged from hospital with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 involving an assessment between two- and seven-months later including detailed symptom, physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for patient-perceived recovery with age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), co-morbidities, and severity of acute illness as co-variates. Cluster analysis was performed using outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognition and physical function. FindingsWe report findings of 1077 patients discharged in 2020, from the assessment undertaken a median 5 [IQR4 to 6] months later: 36% female, mean age 58 [SD 13] years, 69% white ethnicity, 27% mechanical ventilation, and 50% had at least two co-morbidities. At follow-up only 29% felt fully recovered, 20% had a new disability, and 19% experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with failure to recover were female, middle-age, white ethnicity, two or more co-morbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial and weakly related to acute severity. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment: 1) Very severe (17%), 2) Severe (21%), 3) Moderate with cognitive impairment (17%), 4) Mild (46%), with 3%, 7%, 36% and 43% feeling fully recovered, respectively. Persistent systemic inflammation determined by C-reactive protein was related to cluster severity, but not acute illness severity. InterpretationWe identified factors related to recovery from a hospital admission with COVID-19 and four different phenotypes relating to the severity of physical, mental, and cognitive health five months later. The implications for clinical care include the potential to stratify care and the need for a pro-active approach with wide-access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services. Funding: UKRI and NIHR
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BackgroundNeurological and psychiatric sequelae of COVID-19 have been reported, but there are limited data on incidence rates and relative risks. MethodsUsing retrospective cohort studies and time-to-event analysis, we estimated the incidence of ICD-10 diagnoses in the 6 months after a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19: intracranial haemorrhage; ischaemic stroke; Parkinsonism; Guillain-Barre syndrome; nerve/nerve root/plexus disorders; myoneural/muscle disease; encephalitis; dementia; mood, anxiety, and psychotic disorders; substance misuse; and insomnia. Data were obtained from the TriNetX electronic health records network (over 81 million patients). We compared incidences with those in propensity score-matched cohorts of patients with influenza or other respiratory infections using a Cox model. We investigated the effect on incidence estimates of COVID-19 severity, as proxied by hospitalization and encephalopathy (including delirium and related disorders). Findings236,379 patients survived a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. Among them, the estimated incidence of neurological or psychiatric sequelae at 6 months was 33.6%, with 12.8% receiving their first such diagnosis. Most diagnostic categories were commoner after COVID-19 than after influenza or other respiratory infections (hazard ratios from 1.21 to 5.28), including stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, dementia, and psychotic disorders. Findings were equivocal for Parkinsonism and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Amongst COVID-19 cases, incidences and hazard ratios for most disorders were higher in patients who had been hospitalized, and markedly so in those who had experienced encephalopathy. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including comparisons against an additional four index health events. InterpretationThe study provides evidence for substantial neurological and psychiatric morbidity following COVID-19 infection. Risks were greatest in, but not limited to, those who had severe COVID-19. The information can help in service planning and identification of research priorities. FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre.
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BackgroundThe medium-term effects of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on multiple organ health, exercise capacity, cognition, quality of life and mental health are poorly understood. MethodsFifty-eight COVID-19 patients post-hospital discharge and 30 comorbidity-matched controls were prospectively enrolled for multiorgan (brain, lungs, heart, liver and kidneys) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), spirometry, six-minute walk test, cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), quality of life, cognitive and mental health assessments. FindingsAt 2-3 months from disease-onset, 64% of patients experienced persistent breathlessness and 55% complained of significant fatigue. On MRI, tissue signal abnormalities were seen in the lungs (60%), heart (26%), liver (10%) and kidneys (29%) of patients. COVID-19 patients also exhibited tissue changes in the thalamus, posterior thalamic radiations and sagittal stratum on brain MRI and demonstrated impaired cognitive performance, specifically in the executive and visuospatial domain relative to controls. Exercise tolerance (maximal oxygen consumption and ventilatory efficiency on CPET) and six-minute walk distance (405{+/-}118m vs 517{+/-}106m in controls, p<0.0001) were significantly reduced in patients. The extent of extra-pulmonary MRI abnormalities and exercise tolerance correlated with serum markers of ongoing inflammation and severity of acute illness. Patients were more likely to report symptoms of moderate to severe anxiety (35% versus 10%, p=0.012) and depression (39% versus 17%, p=0.036) and a significant impairment in all domains of quality of life compared to controls. InterpretationA significant proportion of COVID-19 patients discharged from hospital experience ongoing symptoms of breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety, depression and exercise limitation at 2-3 months from disease-onset. Persistent lung and extra-pulmonary organ MRI findings are common. In COVID-19 survivors, chronic inflammation may underlie multiorgan abnormalities and contribute to impaired quality of life. FundingNIHR Oxford and Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centres, British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence, UKRI, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation.
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BackgroundAdverse mental health consequences of COVID-19, including anxiety and depression, have been widely predicted but not yet accurately measured. There are a range of physical health risk factors for COVID-19, but it is not known if there are also psychiatric risk factors. MethodsWe addressed both questions using cohort studies derived from an electronic health records (EHR) network of 69 million patients including over 62,000 cases of COVID-19. Propensity score matching was used to control for confounding by risk factors for COVID-19 and for more severe illness. FindingsIn patients with no prior psychiatric history, COVID-19 was associated with an increased incidence of psychiatric diagnoses in the three months after infection compared to 6 other health events (hazard ratio [95% CI] 2.1 [1.8-2.5] compared to influenza; 1.7 [1.5-1.9] compared to other respiratory tract infections; 1.6 [1.4-1.9] compared to skin infection; 1.6 [1.3-1.9] compared to cholelithiasis; 2.2 [1.9-2.6] compared to urolithiasis, and 2.1 [1.9-2.5] compared to fracture of a large bone; all p< 0.0001). The increase was greatest for anxiety disorders but also present for depression, insomnia, and dementia. The results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. There was a [~]30% reduction in psychiatric diagnoses in the total EHR population over the same period. A psychiatric diagnosis in the previous year was associated with a 65% higher incidence of COVID-19 (relative risk 1.65, 95% CI: 1.59-1.71, p< 0.0001). This was independent of known physical health risk factors for COVID-19. InterpretationCOVID-19 infection has both psychiatric sequelae and psychiatric antecedents. Survivors have an increased rate of new onset psychiatric disorders, and prior psychiatric disorders are associated with a higher risk of COVID-19. The findings have implications for research into aetiology and highlight the need for clinical services to provide multidisciplinary follow-up, and prompt detection and treatment.