Training in Cortically Blinded Fields Appears to Confer Patient-Specific Benefit Against Retinal Thinning.

Purpose: Damage to the adult primary visual cortex (V1) causes vision loss in the contralateral hemifield, initiating a process of transsynaptic retrograde degeneration (TRD). Here, we examined retinal correlates of TRD using a new metric to account for global changes in inner retinal thickness and asked if perceptual training in the intact or blind field impacts its progression. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of optical coherence tomography data in 48 participants with unilateral V1 stroke and homonymous visual defects who completed clinical trial NCT03350919. After measuring the thickness of the macular ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer (GCL-IPL) and the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), we computed individual laterality indices (LI) at baseline and after ∼6 months of daily motion discrimination training in the intact or blind field. Increasingly positive LI denoted greater layer thinning in retinal regions affected versus unaffected by the cortical damage. Results: Pretraining, the affected GCL-IPL and RNFL were thinner than their unaffected counterparts, generating LI values positively correlated with time since stroke. Participants trained in their intact field exhibited increased LIGCL-IPL. Those trained in their blind field had no significant change in LIGCL-IPL. LIRNFL did not change in either group. Conclusions: Relative shrinkage of the affected versus unaffected macular GCL-IPL can be reliably measured at an individual level and increases with time post-V1 stroke. Relative thinning progressed during intact-field training but appeared to be halted by training within the blind field, suggesting a potentially neuroprotective effect of this simple behavioral intervention.

Long-term outcomes after new onset seizure in children living with HIV: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the long-term outcomes, including mortality and recurrent seizures, among children living with HIV (CLWH) who present with new onset seizure. METHODS: Zambian CLWH and new onset seizure were enrolled prospectively to determine the risk of and risk factors for recurrent seizures. Demographic data, clinical profiles, index seizure etiology, and 30-day mortality outcomes were previously reported. After discharge, children were followed quarterly to identify recurrent seizures and death. Given the high risk of early death, risk factors for recurrent seizure were evaluated using a model that adjusted for mortality. RESULTS: Among 73 children enrolled, 28 died (38%), 22 within 30-days of the index seizure. Median follow-up was 533 days (IQR 18-957) with 5% (4/73) lost to follow-up. Seizure recurrence was 19% among the entire cohort. Among children surviving at least 30-days after the index seizure, 27% had a recurrent seizure. Median time from index seizure to recurrent seizure was 161 days (IQR 86-269). Central nervous system opportunistic infection (CNS OI), as the cause for the index seizure was protective against recurrent seizures and higher functional status was a risk factor for seizure recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: Among CLWH presenting with new onset seizure, mortality risks remain elevated beyond the acute illness period. Recurrent seizures are common and are more likely in children with higher level of functioning even after adjusting for the outcome of death. Newer antiseizure medications appropriate for co-usage with antiretroviral therapies are needed for the care of these children. CNS OI may represent a potentially reversible provocation for the index seizure, while seizures in high functioning CLWH without a CNS OI may be the result of a prior brain injury or susceptibility to seizures unrelated to HIV and thus represent an ongoing predisposition to seizures. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This study followed CLWH who experienced a new onset seizure to find out how many go on to have more seizures and identify any patient characteristics associated with having more seizures. The study found that mortality rates continue to be high beyond the acute clinical presentation with new onset seizure. Children with a CNS OI causing the new onset seizure had a lower risk of later seizures, possibly because the trigger for the seizure can be treated. In contrast, high functioning children without a CNS OI were at higher risk of future seizures.

Early Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy is Protective Against Seizures in Children With HIV in Zambia: A Prospective Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Seizures are relatively common among children with HIV in low- and middle-income countries and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Early treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) may reduce this risk by decreasing rates of central nervous system infections and HIV encephalopathy. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, unmatched case-control study. We enrolled children with new-onset seizure from University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia and 2 regional hospitals in rural Zambia. Controls were children with HIV and no history of seizures. Recruitment took place from 2016 to 2019. Early treatment was defined as initiation of ART before 12 months of age, at a CD4 percentage >15% in children aged 12-60 months or a CD4 count >350 cells/mm 3 for children aged 60 months or older. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between potential risk factors and seizures. RESULTS: We identified 73 children with new-onset seizure and compared them with 254 control children with HIV but no seizures. Early treatment with ART was associated with a significant reduction in the odds of seizures [odds ratio (OR) 0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.02 to 0.09; P < 0.001]. Having an undetectable viral load at the time of enrollment was strongly protective against seizures (OR 0.03, P < 0.001), whereas history of World Health Organization Stage 4 disease (OR 2.2, P = 0.05) or CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 (OR 3.6, P < 0.001) increased risk of seizures. CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of ART and successful viral suppression would likely reduce much of the excess seizure burden in children with HIV.

Team-based home blood pressure monitoring for blood pressure equity a protocol for a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Home Blood Pressure Monitoring (HBPM) that includes a team with a clinical pharmacist is an evidence-based intervention that improves blood pressure (BP). Yet, strategies for promoting its adoption in primary care are lacking. We developed potentially feasible and sustainable implementation strategies to improve hypertension control and BP equity. METHODS: We assessed barriers and facilitators to HBPM and iteratively adapted implementation strategies through key informative interviews and guidance from a multistakeholder stakeholder team involving investigators, clinicians, and practice administration. RESULTS: Strategies include: 1) pro-active outreach to patients; 2) provision of BP devices; 3) deployment of automated bidirectional texting to support patients through education messages for patients to transmit their readings to the clinical team; 3) a hypertension visit note template; 4) monthly audit and feedback reports on progress to the team; and 5) training to the patients and teams. We will use a stepped wedge randomized trial to assess RE-AIM outcomes. These are defined as follows Reach: the proportion of eligible patients who agree to participate in the BP texting; Effectiveness: the proportion of eligible patients with their last BP reading <140/90 (six months); Adoption: the proportion of patients invited to the BP texting; Implementation: patients who text their BP reading ≥10 of days per month; and Maintenance: sustained BP control post-intervention (twelve months). We will also examine RE-AIM metrics stratified by race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Findings will inform the impact of strategies for the adoption of team-based HPBM and the impact of the intervention on hypertension control and equity. REGISTRATION DETAILS: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov Identifier: NCT05488795.

Design and characteristics of the prophylactic intra-operative ventricular arrhythmia ablation in high-risk LVAD candidates (PIVATAL) trial.

BACKGROUND: The use of a Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD) in patients with advanced heart failure refractory to optimal medical management has progressed steadily over the past two decades. Data have demonstrated reduced LVAD efficacy, worse clinical outcome, and higher mortality for patients who experience significant ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VTA). We hypothesize that a novel prophylactic intra-operative VTA ablation protocol at the time of LVAD implantation may reduce the recurrent VTA and adverse events postimplant. METHODS: We designed a prospective, multicenter, open-label, randomized-controlled clinical trial enrolling 100 patients who are LVAD candidates with a history of VTA in the previous 5 years. Enrolled patients will be randomized in a 1:1 fashion to intra-operative VTA ablation (n = 50) versus conventional medical management (n = 50) with LVAD implant. Arrhythmia outcomes data will be captured by an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) to monitor VTA events, with a uniform ICD programming protocol. Patients will be followed prospectively over a mean of 18 months (with a minimum of 9 months) after LVAD implantation to evaluate recurrent VTA, adverse events, and procedural outcomes. Secondary endpoints include right heart function/hemodynamics, healthcare utilization, and quality of life. CONCLUSION: The primary aim of this first-ever randomized trial is to assess the efficacy of intra-operative ablation during LVAD surgery in reducing VTA recurrence and improving clinical outcomes for patients with a history of VTA.

Food Insecurity Is Associated With Low Tenofovir Diphosphate in Dried Blood Spots in South African Persons With HIV.

Background: Food insecurity has been linked to suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence in persons with HIV (PWH). This association has not been evaluated using tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood spots (DBSs), a biomarker of cumulative ART adherence and exposure. Methods: Within a prospective South African cohort of treatment-naive PWH initiating ART, a subset of participants with measured TFV-DP in DBS values was assessed for food insecurity status. Bivariate and multivariate median-based regression analysis compared the association between food insecurity and TFV-DP concentrations in DBSs adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, medication possession ratio (MPR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Results: Drug concentrations were available for 285 study participants. Overall, 62 (22%) PWH reported worrying about food insecurity and 44 (15%) reported not having enough food to eat in the last month. The crude median concentrations of TFV-DP in DBSs differed significantly between those who expressed food insecurity worry versus those who did not (599 [interquartile range {IQR}, 417-783] fmol/punch vs 716 [IQR, 453-957] fmol/punch; P = .032). In adjusted median-based regression, those with food insecurity worry had concentrations of TFV-DP that were 155 (95% confidence interval, -275 to -35; P = .012) fmol/punch lower than those who did not report food insecurity worry. Age and MPR remained significantly associated with TFV-DP. Conclusions: In this study, food insecurity worry is associated with lower TFV-DP concentrations in South African PWH. This highlights the role of food insecurity as a social determinant of HIV outcomes including ART failure and resistance.

Nonparametric Bayesian Q-learning for optimization of dynamic treatment regimes in the presence of partial compliance.

Existing methods for estimation of dynamic treatment regimes are mostly limited to intention-to-treat analyses-which estimate the effect of randomization to a particular treatment regime without considering the compliance behavior of patients. In this article, we propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian Q-learning approach to construct optimal sequential treatment regimes that adjust for partial compliance. We consider the popular potential compliance framework, where some potential compliances are latent and need to be imputed. The key challenge is learning the joint distribution of the potential compliances, which we accomplish using a Dirichlet process mixture model. Our approach provides two kinds of treatment regimes: (1) conditional regimes that depend on the potential compliance values; and (2) marginal regimes where the potential compliances are marginalized. Extensive simulation studies highlight the usefulness of our method compared to intention-to-treat analyses. We apply our method to the Adaptive Treatment for Alcohol and Cocaine Dependence (ENGAGE) study , where the goal is to construct optimal treatment regimes to engage patients in therapy.

A non-parametric Bayesian approach for adjusting partial compliance in sequential decision making.

Existing methods for estimating the mean outcome under a given sequential treatment rule often rely on intention-to-treat analyses, which estimate the effect of following a certain treatment rule regardless of compliance behavior of patients. There are two major concerns with intention-to-treat analyses: (1) the estimated effects are often biased toward the null effect; (2) the results are not generalizable and reproducible due to the potentially differential compliance behavior. These are particularly problematic in settings with a high level of non-compliance, such as substance use disorder studies. Our work is motivated by the Adaptive Treatment for Alcohol and Cocaine Dependence study (ENGAGE), which is a multi-stage trial that aimed to construct optimal treatment strategies to engage patients in therapy. Due to the relatively low level of compliance in this trial, intention-to-treat analyses essentially estimate the effect of being randomized to a certain treatment, instead of the actual effect of the treatment. We obviate this challenge by defining the target parameter as the mean outcome under a dynamic treatment regime conditional on a potential compliance stratum. We propose a flexible non-parametric Bayesian approach based on principal stratification, which consists of a Gaussian copula model for the joint distribution of the potential compliances, and a Dirichlet process mixture model for the treatment sequence specific outcomes. We conduct extensive simulation studies which highlight the utility of our approach in the context of multi-stage randomized trials. We show robustness of our estimator to non-linear and non-Gaussian settings as well.

Disease Burden in Children With Spinal Muscular Atrophy: Results From a Large Cross-Sectional Study.

Background:To facilitate advances in spinal muscular atrophy therapeutic research, it is important to determine the impact and prevalence of symptoms experienced by children with spinal muscular atrophy. Methods: We conducted qualitative interviews with caregivers of children with spinal muscular atrophy. From these interviews, we generated a survey inquiring about 260 symptoms of importance grouped into 17 symptomatic themes. Results: Sixteen caregivers of children with spinal muscular atrophy aged from 4 months to 12 years participated in initial interviews, and 77 caregivers completed the survey. Higher symptom prevalence was associated with spinal muscular atrophy type, SMN2 copy number, and functional status. Hip, thigh, or knee weakness had the greatest reported impact on the lives of children with spinal muscular atrophy. Conclusions: This research provides one of the largest data sets regarding disease burden in children with spinal muscular atrophy. The most prevalent symptoms are not identical to those with the greatest impact. This unique insight into the most impactful symptoms will help focus therapeutic development in spinal muscular atrophy.

Training in cortically-blind fields confers patient-specific benefit against retinal thinning after occipital stroke.

Purpose: Damage to the adult primary visual cortex (V1) causes vision loss in the contralateral hemifield, initiating a process of trans-synaptic retrograde degeneration (TRD). Here, we examined retinal correlates of TRD using a new metric to account for global changes in inner retinal thickness, and asked if perceptual training in the intact or blind field impacts its progression. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of optical coherence tomography (OCT) data in 48 participants with unilateral V1 stroke and homonymous visual defects, who completed clinical trial NCT03350919. After measuring the thickness of the macular ganglion cell and inner plexiform layers (GCL-IPL), and the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), we computed individual laterality indices (LI) at baseline and after ~6 months of daily motion discrimination training in the intact- or blind-field. Increasingly positive LI denoted greater layer thinning in retinal regions affected versus unaffected by the cortical damage. Results: Pre-training, the affected GCL-IPL and RNFL were thinner than their unaffected counterparts, generating LI values positively correlated with time since stroke. Participants trained in their intact-field exhibited increased LIGCL-IPL. Those trained in their blind-field had no significant change in LIGCL-IPL. LIRNFL did not change in either group. Conclusions: Relative shrinkage of the affected versus unaffected macular GCL-IPL can be reliably measured at an individual level and increases with time post-V1 stroke. Relative thinning progressed during intact-field training, but appeared to be halted by training within the blind field, suggesting a potentially neuroprotective effect of this simple behavioral intervention.

Longitudinal trends in produce purchasing behavior: a descriptive study of transaction level data from loyalty card households.

BACKGROUND: Household food purchases (HFP) are in the pathway between the community food environment and the foods available in households for consumption. As such, HFP data have emerged as alternatives to monitor population dietary trends over-time. In this paper, we investigate the use of loyalty card datasets as unexplored sources of continuously collected HFP data to describe temporal trends in household produce purchases. METHODS: We partnered with a grocery store chain to obtain a loyalty card database with grocery transactions by household from January 2016-October 2018. We included households in an urban county with complete observations for head of household age group, household income group, and family size. Data were summarized as weighted averages (95% CI) of percent produce purchased out of all foods purchased by household per month. We modeled seasonal and linear trends in the proportion of produce purchases by age group and income while accounting for repeated observations per household using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: There are 290,098 households in the database (88% of all county households). At baseline, the smallest and largest percent produce purchases are observed among the youngest and lowest income (12.2%, CI 11.1; 13.3) and the oldest and highest income households (19.3, CI 18.9; 19.6); respectively. The seasonal variations are consistent in all age and income groups with an April-June peak gradually descending until December. However, the average linear change in percent produce purchased per household per year varies by age and income being the steepest among the youngest households at each income level (from 1.42%, CI 0.98;1.8 to 0.69%, CI 0.42;0.95) while the oldest households experience almost no annual change. CONCLUSIONS: We explored the potential of a collaboration with a food retailer to use continuously collected loyalty card data for public health nutrition purposes. Our findings suggest a trend towards a healthier pattern in long-term food purchases and household food availability among the youngest households that may lessen the population chronic disease burden if sustained. Understanding the foods available for consumption within households allows public health advocates to develop and evaluate policies and programs promoting foods and nutrients along the life course.

Longitudinal Cognitive Outcomes in Children With HIV in Zambia: 2-Year Outcomes From the HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders in Zambia (HANDZ) Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe longitudinal outcomes and predictors of cognitive outcomes in children with HIV in Zambia. BACKGROUND: Multiple studies have shown that children with HIV are at risk for impaired cognition. However, there are limited data on longitudinal cognitive outcomes in children with HIV. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 208 perinatally infected children with HIV ages 8-17 years, all treated with antiretroviral therapy, and 208 HIV-exposed uninfected controls. Participants were followed for 2 years. Cognition was assessed with a custom NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery, and tests were combined to generate a Summary Cognition Score (SCS). The contribution of potential risk factors to outcomes was explored using regression models and group-based trajectory modeling. RESULTS: HIV was strongly associated with lower SCS at baseline [ß-14, 95% confidence interval (CI): -20 to -7, P < 0.001]. Change scores over time were similar between groups, but poorer average performance in children with HIV persisted at the 2-year follow-up visit (adjusted ß = -11, 95% CI: -22 to -0.3, P = 0.04). Other than HIV, the strongest predictors of baseline SCS included socioeconomic status index (ß =3, 95% CI: 1, 5, P = 0.004), history of growth stunting (ß=-14, 95% CI: -23 to -6, P = 0.001), history of CD4 count below 200 (ß = -19, 95% CI: -35 to -2, P = 0.02), and history of World Health Organization stage 4 disease (ß = -10, 95% CI: -19 to -0.2, P = 0.04). In the group-based trajectory model, HIV+ status predicted membership in the lowest performing trajectory group (odds ratio 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2 to 5.1, P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Children with HIV are at risk of poor cognitive outcomes, despite chronic treatment with antiretroviral therapy.

Screening for chronic diseases: optimizing lead time through balancing prescribed frequency and individual adherence.

Screening for chronic diseases, such as cancer, is an important public health priority, but traditionally only the frequency or rate of screening has received attention. In this work, we study the importance of adhering to recommended screening policies and develop new methodology to better optimize screening policies when adherence is imperfect. We consider a progressive disease model with four states (healthy, undetectable preclinical, detectable preclinical, clinical), and overlay this with a stochastic screening-behavior model using the theory of renewal processes that allows us to capture imperfect adherence to screening programs in a transparent way. We show that decreased adherence leads to reduced efficacy of screening programs, quantified here using elements of the lead time distribution (i.e., the time between screening diagnosis and when diagnosis would have occurred clinically in the absence of screening). Under the assumption of an inverse relationship between prescribed screening frequency and individual adherence, we show that the optimal screening frequency generally decreases with increasing levels of non-adherence. We apply this model to an example in breast cancer screening, demonstrating how accounting for imperfect adherence affects the recommended screening frequency.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes after new-onset seizure among Zambian children with HIV during the antiretroviral therapy era.

OBJECTIVE: This study describes clinical profiles including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease history and seizure etiology among children living with HIV presenting with new-onset seizure during the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia. 30-day mortality and cause of death are also reported. METHODS: Children living with HIV (CLWHIV) with new-onset seizures were prospectively evaluated at one large urban teaching hospital and two non-urban healthcare facilities. Interviews with family members, review of medical records, and where needed, verbal autopsies were undertaken. Two clinicians who were not responsible for the patients' care independently reviewed all records and assigned seizure etiology and cause of death with adjudication as needed. RESULTS: From April 2016 to June 2019, 73 children (49 urban, 24 rural) were identified. Median age was 6 years (IQR 2.2-10.0) and 39 (53%) were male children. Seizures were focal in 36 (49%) and were often severe, with 37% presenting with multiple recurrent seizures in the 24 hours before admission or in status epilepticus. Although 36 (49%) were on ART at enrollment, only 7 of 36 (19%) were virally suppressed. Seizure etiologies were infectious in over half (54%), with HIV encephalitis, bacterial meningitis, and tuberculous meningitis being the most common. Metabolic causes (19%) included renal failure and hypoglycemia. Structural lesions identified on imaging accounted for 10% of etiologies and included stroke and non-accidental trauma. No etiology could be identified in 12 (16%) children, most of whom died before the completion of clinical investigations. Twenty-two (30%) children died within 30 days of the index seizure. SIGNIFICANCE: Despite widespread ART roll out in Zambia, new-onset seizure in CLWHIV occurs in the setting of advanced, active HIV disease. Seizure severity/burden is high as is early mortality. Enhanced programs to assure early ART initiation, improve adherence, and address ART failure are needed to reduce the burden of neurological injury and premature death in CLWHIV.

Efficacy of a Telehealth Delivered Couples' HIV Counseling and Testing (CHTC) Intervention to Improve Formation and Adherence to Safer Sexual Agreements Among Male Couples in the US: Results from a Randomized Control Trial.

This paper reports the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to assess the efficacy of Nexus, a telehealth delivered intervention that combines Couples' HIV counseling and testing (CHTC) with home-based HIV-testing, examining the impact of the intervention on the couples' formation and adherence to safer sexual agreements. Between 2016 and 2018, 424 couples were recruited online from the U.S and randomized to the intervention arm (a telehealth delivered CHTC session with two home HIV-testing kits) or a control arm (two home HIV-testing kits), with study assessments at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Outcomes were the formation and adherence to safer sexual agreements, dyadic discordance in sexual agreements, breakage of sexual agreements, and perceptions of PrEP. Couples in the intervention arm had significantly greater odds of reporting a safer sexual agreement (3 months OR 1.87, p-value 0.005, and 6 months OR 1.84, p-value 0.007), lower odds of reporting discordant sexual agreements at 6 months (OR 0.62, p-value 0.048), and a significantly lower odds of reporting breaking their sexual agreement (3 months OR 0.51, p-value 0.035, and 6 months OR 0.23, p-value 0.000). By 6 months, couples in the intervention arm were less likely to say PrEP was beneficial to one (RRR 0.33, P = 0.000) or both of them (RRR 0.29, P = 0.000) than being beneficial to neither of the partners. The high levels of acceptability and efficacy of the intervention demonstrate strong potential for the scale-up of this efficacious intervention that is delivered through a low-cost telehealth platform.

Bayesian set of best dynamic treatment regimes: Construction and sample size calculation for SMARTs with binary outcomes.

Sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials (SMARTs) compare sequences of treatment decision rules called dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs). In particular, the Adaptive Treatment for Alcohol and Cocaine Dependence (ENGAGE) SMART aimed to determine the best DTRs for patients with a substance use disorder. While many authors have focused on a single pairwise comparison, addressing the main goal involves comparisons of >2 DTRs. For complex comparisons, there is a paucity of methods for binary outcomes. We fill this gap by extending the multiple comparisons with the best (MCB) methodology to the Bayesian binary outcome setting. The set of best is constructed based on simultaneous credible intervals. A substantial challenge for power analysis is the correlation between outcome estimators for distinct DTRs embedded in SMARTs due to overlapping subjects. We address this using Robins' G-computation formula to take a weighted average of parameter draws obtained via simulation from the parameter posteriors. We use non-informative priors and work with the exact distribution of parameters avoiding unnecessary normality assumptions and specification of the correlation matrix of DTR outcome summary statistics. We conduct simulation studies for both the construction of a set of optimal DTRs using the Bayesian MCB procedure and the sample size calculation for two common SMART designs. We illustrate our method on the ENGAGE SMART. The R package SMARTbayesR for power calculations is freely available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) repository. An RShiny app is available at https://wilart.shinyapps.io/shinysmartbayesr/.

Traumatic Wounds of the Foot and Ankle: The Landstuhl Regional Medical Center Experience and Historical Perspectives.

As this is more of a reference article, I chose not to have an abstract similar to the paper I wrote in 2016 regarding flat feet in the military.

Comparing effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy between peri-urban and rural clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Viral suppression (VS) is the hallmark of successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. We sought to compare clinic retention, virological outcomes, drug resistance and mortality between peri-urban and rural settings in South Africa after first-line ART. METHODS: Beginning in July 2014, 1000 (500 peri-urban and 500 rural) ART-naïve patients with HIV were enrolled and managed according to local standard of care. Clinic retention, virological suppression, virological failure (VF), genotypic drug resistance and mortality were assessed. The definition of VS was a viral load ≤1000 copies/ml. Time to event analyses were stratified by site, median age and gender. Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated and graphed with log-rank modelling to compare curves. RESULTS: Based on 2741 patient-years of follow-up, retention and mortality did not differ between sites. Among all 1000 participants, 47%, 84% and 91% had achieved VS by 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively, which was observed earlier in the peri-urban site. At both sites, men aged < 32 years had the highest proportion of VF (15.5%), while women aged > 32 years had the lowest, at 7.1% (p = 0.018). Among 55 genotypes, 42 (76.4%) had at one or more resistance mutations, which did not differ by site. K103N (59%) and M184V (52%) were the most common mutations, followed by V106M and K65R (31% each). Overall, death was infrequent (< 4%). CONCLUSIONS: No significant differences in treatment outcomes between peri-urban and rural clinics were observed. In both settings, young men were especially susceptible to clinic attrition and VF. More effective adherence support for this important demographic group is needed to achieve UNAIDS targets.

Estimating mean potential outcome under adaptive treatment length strategies in continuous time.

An adaptive treatment length strategy is a sequential stage-wise treatment strategy where a subject's treatment begins at baseline and one chooses to stop or continue treatment at each stage provided the subject has been continuously treated. The effects of treatment are assumed to be cumulative and, therefore, the effect of treatment length on clinical endpoint, measured at the end of the study, is of primary scientific interest. At the same time, adverse treatment-terminating events may occur during the course of treatment that require treatment be stopped immediately. Because the presence of a treatment-terminating event may be strongly associated with the study outcome, the treatment-terminating event is informative. In observational studies, decisions to stop or continue treatment depend on covariate history that confounds the relationship between treatment length on outcome. We propose a new risk-set weighted estimator of the mean potential outcome under the condition that time-dependent covariates update at a set of common landmarks. We show that our proposed estimator is asymptotically linear given mild assumptions and correctly specified working models. Specifically, we study the theoretical properties of our estimator when the nuisance parameters are modeled using either parametric or semiparametric methods. The finite sample performance and theoretical results of the proposed estimator are evaluated through simulation studies and demonstrated by application to the Enhanced Suppression of the Platelet Receptor IIb/IIIa with Integrilin Therapy (ESPRIT) infusion trial data.

Who's slipping through the cracks? A comprehensive individual, clinical and health system characterization of people with virological failure on first-line HIV treatment in Uganda and South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: HIV virological failure remains a major threat to programme success in sub-Saharan Africa. While HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) and inadequate adherence are the main drivers of virological failure, the individual, clinical and health system characteristics that lead to poor outcomes are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to identify those characteristics among people failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We enrolled a cohort of adults in HIV care experiencing virological failure on first-line ART at five sites and used standard statistical methods to characterize them with a focus on three domains: individual/demographic, clinical, and health system, and compared each by country of enrolment. RESULTS: Of 840 participants, 51% were women, the median duration on ART was 3.2 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.1, 6.4 years] and the median CD4 cell count prior to failure was 281 cells/µL (IQR 121, 457 cells/µL). More than half of participants [53%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 49-56%] stated that they had > 90% adherence and 75% (95% CI 72-77%) took their ART on time all or most of the time. Conversely, the vast majority (90%; 95% CI 86-92%) with a completed genotypic drug resistance test had any HIV drug resistance. This population had high health system use, reporting a median of 3 (IQR 2.6) health care visits and a median of 1 (IQR 1.1) hospitalization in the preceding 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Patients failing first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa generally report high rates of adherence to ART, have extremely high rates of HIV drug resistance and utilize significant health care resources. Health systems interventions to promptly detect and manage treatment failure will be a prerequisite to establishing control of the HIV epidemic.