Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: Drivers, effectiveness, and future needs.

The combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change. Yet, the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructure (GBGI), such as parks, wetlands, and engineered greening, which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures. Despite many reviews, the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear. This systematic literature review synthesizes the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximize their benefits. After screening 27,486 papers, 202 were reviewed, based on 51 GBGI types categorized under 10 main divisions. Certain GBGI (green walls, parks, street trees) have been well researched for their urban cooling capabilities. However, several other GBGI have received negligible (zoological garden, golf course, estuary) or minimal (private garden, allotment) attention. The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens (5.0 ± 3.5°C), wetlands (4.9 ± 3.2°C), green walls (4.1 ± 4.2°C), street trees (3.8 ± 3.1°C), and vegetated balconies (3.8 ± 2.7°C). Under changing climate conditions (2070-2100) with consideration of RCP8.5, there is a shift in climate subtypes, either within the same climate zone (e.g., Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa) or across other climate zones (e.g., Dfb [continental warm-summer humid] to BSk [dry, cold semi-arid] and Cwa [temperate] to Am [tropical]). These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future. Given the importance of multiple services, it is crucial to balance their functionality, cooling performance, and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI. This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritizing effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating, filling research gaps, and promoting community resilience.

Under the influence of nature: The contribution of natural capital to tourism spend.

Tourism and outdoor leisure is an important economic sector for many countries, and has a substantial reliance on natural capital. Natural capital may be the primary purpose for tourism, or it may be a secondary factor, where the choice of location for a leisure activity is influenced by natural capital. Typically, when valuing tourism and outdoor leisure, all expenditure associated with the activity is assigned to the ecosystem it occurs in. However, this value illustrates the dependency on natural capital, rather than the contribution of natural capital. In natural capital accounting, a major challenge is to separately identify the contribution of natural capital from that of other forms of capital. In this study we develop a transparent and repeatable method that is able to attribute the contribution of natural capital (here defined as ecosystems) to the output of multiple tourism and outdoor leisure activities. Using national statistics from Great Britain, we calculate the natural capital contribution to tourism spend by activity at a national and regional scale, and for a case study map and value the contributing ecosystems. We estimated that, out of a total £36 billion spent on tourism and leisure activities in 2017, £22.5 billion was attributable to natural capital. This equates to 0.9% of the UK GDP. The Gross Value Added component of this attributable was £10.5 billion, equivalent to 0.4% of the UK GDP. Regions with the highest natural capital contribution in Great Britain were Scotland and Wales, with the lowest being Greater London and the West Midlands in England. For the case study, the ecosystems with the greatest contribution to terrestrial activities were marine and enclosed farmland. These methods can be applied worldwide for anywhere with aggregate economic statistics on expenditure associated with tourism and outdoor leisure, with the aid of open source GIS datasets.

Spatiotemporal patterns and inequity of urban green space accessibility and its relationship with urban spatial expansion in China during rapid urbanization period.

Equitable access to urban green spaces (UGS) is an important component of social justice and can be quantified using indices such as urban green space accessibility (UGSA). However, the spatiotemporal patterns and inequity of UGSA among cities with different developments during rapid urbanization are unclear, especially lack evidence at a macroscopic national scale during rapid urbanization. Therefore, we evaluated the UGSA in 366 cities of China during 1990-2015 by the Gaussian-based two-step floating catchment area method (Gaussian-based 2SFCA). Then, the inequity pattern of UGSA among cities with different economic developments was analyzed by the concentration curve and concentration index. Finally, the relationship between UGSA and urban spatial expansion was explored quantitatively by the spatial econometric model. The results showed that: (1) The overall UGSA in China declined significantly by nearly 57.23% during 1990-2015. From the regional perspective, the UGSA in the southeastern region was always lower than that in the northwestern region, the Eastern zone presented a downward trend. From the perspective of different sizes cities, the UGSA of the megacities kept decreasing during 1990-2015, while UGSA of the large, medium, and small cities had turned to increase since 2010. (2) During rapid urbanization, the equity of UGSA among the cities gradually improved, while the cities with low economic developments tended to have higher UGSA. (3) Urban spatial expansion led to the decrease of UGSA during 1990-2015, while the impact had spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and UGSA had a positive spatial spillover effect. Our research provides a comparative baseline for the improvement of UGSA from a macroscopic perspective for China's urbanization policy in the future and novel insights into the green justice issue. The results can be compared with the development of UGS in other countries at different urbanization stages to promote UGS design and policy.

Using demand mapping to assess the benefits of urban green and blue space in cities from four continents.

The benefits of urban green and blue infrastructure (UGI) are widely discussed, but rarely take into account local conditions or contexts. Although assessments increasingly consider the demand for the ecosystem services that UGI provides, they tend to only map the spatial pattern of pressures such as heat, or air pollution, and lack a wider understanding of where the beneficiaries are located and who will benefit most. We assess UGI in five cities from four continents with contrasting climate, socio-political context, and size. For three example services (air pollution removal, heat mitigation, accessible greenspace), we run an assessment that takes into account spatial patterns in the socio-economic demand for ecosystem services and develops metrics that reflect local context, drawing on the principles of vulnerability assessment. Despite similar overall levels of UGI (from 35 to 50% of urban footprint), the amount of service provided differs substantially between cities. Aggregate cooling ranged from 0.44 °C (Leicester) to 0.98 °C (Medellin), while pollution removal ranged from 488 kg PM2.5/yr (Zomba) to 48,400 kg PM2.5/yr (Dhaka). Percentage population with access to nearby greenspace ranged from 82% (Dhaka) to 100% (Zomba). The spatial patterns of pressure, of ecosystem service, and of maximum benefit within a city do not necessarily match, and this has implications for planning optimum locations for UGI in cities.

Geographical variation in the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus content of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis.

Shellfish farming contributes to nutrient removal in coastal and estuarine systems, as bivalves incorporate nutrients into their tissues and shells, which is removed from the marine system on harvest. Fourteen locations around the UK were surveyed to explore geographic variation in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus content of tissue and shell in blue mussels. Phosphorus in tissue had a significant negative relationship with mean annual seawater temperature for both rope and bottom cultured sites. Per tonne of live mussel, rope culture removed significantly more nitrogen (8.50 ± 0.59 kg) and phosphorus (0.95 ± 0.07 kg) than bottom cultured (5.00 ± 0.013 kg nitrogen and 0.43 ± 0.01 kg phosphorus). Bottom culture, however, provides significantly more C removal in shell (60.15 ± 0.77 kg) than in rope cultured (46.12 ± 1.69 kg). Further studies are required to examine the effect of growth rate, on the nitrogen and phosphorus remediation, and carbon stored in shell, of rope culture and bottom cultured mussel aquaculture.

Assessment of the potential impact of embedded radioactive fragments following the use of a crude radiological dispersal device ('dirty bomb').

This work was undertaken to understand what would happen if a high-activity radioactive fragment became embedded in an individual following the use of a crude radiological dispersal device ('dirty bomb'). Two areas were addressed: how would a high-activity fragment be viewed on modern digital x-ray imaging systems; and, what would be the impact on medical management for the patient? A set of experimental trials were undertaken using an iridium-192 source and a DRagon mobile x-ray set equipped with a Canon CXDI-50G portable flat panel digital detector plate. In addition, the potential doses to a surgical team were calculated and potential doses to a patient were assessed using a Monte Carlo code, in which a radioactive point source of nil volume was located within a limb of an anthropomorphic voxel phantom. Three distinct effects on the digital imaging systems were observed, referred to in this paper as a localised 'bloom' effect, a 'discontinuity' effect towards the middle of the image and 'fogging' across the entire image. The first two of these effects were unexpected, and possible reasons for their appearance are discussed. The Monte Carlo modelling showed that the patient exposure can potentially lead to very high localised absorbed doses, which may result in symptoms associated with acute radiation syndrome. While the dose clearly depends upon the activity of the fragment and the length of time that the fragment is present inside the patient, it is clear that radiation necrosis of bone, muscle and other tissues may threaten the medium term viability of the limb. The dose rates associated with high-activity fragments may also restrict the time a surgeon has to operate, leading to challenging ethical and surgical decisions. Low-activity fragments allow for conventional surgical management to be considered with appropriate control measures.

Potential and limitation of air pollution mitigation by vegetation and uncertainties of deposition-based evaluations.

The potential to capture additional air pollutants by introducing more vegetation or changing existing short vegetation to woodland on first sight provides an attractive route for lowering urban pollution. Here, an atmospheric chemistry and transport model was run with a range of landcover scenarios to quantify pollutant removal by the existing total UK vegetation as well as the UK urban vegetation and to quantify the effect of large-scale urban tree planting on urban air pollution. UK vegetation as a whole reduces area (population)-weighted concentrations significantly, by 10% (9%) for PM2.5, 30% (22%) for SO2, 24% (19%) for NH3 and 15% (13%) for O3, compared with a desert scenario. By contrast, urban vegetation reduces average urban PM2.5 by only approximately 1%. Even large-scale conversion of half of existing open urban greenspace to forest would lower urban PM2.5 by only another 1%, suggesting that the effect on air quality needs to be considered in the context of the wider benefits of urban tree planting, e.g. on physical and mental health. The net benefits of UK vegetation for NO2 are small, and urban tree planting is even forecast to increase urban NO2 and NOx concentrations, due to the chemical interaction with changes in BVOC emissions and O3, but the details depend on tree species selection. By extrapolation, green infrastructure projects focusing on non-greenspace (roadside trees, green walls, roof-top gardens) would have to be implemented at very large scales to match this effect. Downscaling of the results to micro-interventions solely aimed at pollutant removal suggests that their impact is too limited for their cost-benefit analysis to compare favourably with emission abatement measures. Urban vegetation planting is less effective for lowering pollution than measures to reduce emissions at source. The results highlight interactions that cannot be captured if benefits are quantified via deposition models using prescribed concentrations, and emission damage costs. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Ecosystem services provided by a non-cultured shellfish species: The common cockle Cerastoderma edule.

Coastal habitats provide many important ecosystem services. The substantial role of shellfish in delivering ecosystem services is increasingly recognised, usually with a focus on cultured species, but wild-harvested bivalve species have largely been ignored. This study aimed to collate evidence and data to demonstrate the substantial role played by Europe's main wild-harvested bivalve species, the common cockle Cerastoderma edule, and to assess the ecosystem services that cockles provide. Data and information are synthesised from five countries along the Atlantic European coast with a long history of cockle fisheries. The cockle helps to modify habitat and support biodiversity, and plays a key role in the supporting services on which many of the other services depend. As well as providing food for people, cockles remove nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon from the marine environment, and have a strong cultural influence in these countries along the Atlantic coast. Preliminary economic valuation of some of these services in a European context is provided, and key knowledge gaps identified. It is concluded that the cockle has the potential to become (i) an important focus of conservation and improved sustainable management practices in coastal areas and communities, and (ii) a suitable model species to study the integration of cultural ecosystem services within the broader application of 'ecosystem services'.

Fragmentation and thresholds in hydrological flow-based ecosystem services.

Loss and fragmentation of natural land cover due to expansion of agricultural areas is a global issue. These changes alter the configuration and composition of the landscape, particularly affecting those ecosystem services (benefits people receive from ecosystems) that depend on interactions between landscape components. Hydrological mitigation describes the bundle of ecosystem services provided by landscape features such as woodland that interrupt the flow of runoff to rivers. These services include sediment retention, nutrient retention and mitigation of overland water flow. The position of woodland in the landscape and the landscape topography are both important for hydrological mitigation. Therefore, it is crucial to consider landscape configuration and flow pathways in a spatially explicit manner when examining the impacts of fragmentation. Here we test the effects of landscape configuration using a large number (>7,000) of virtual landscape configurations. We created virtual landscapes of woodland patches within grassland, superimposed onto real topography and stream networks. Woodland patches were generated with user-defined combinations of patch number and total woodland area, placed randomly in the landscape. The Ecosystem Service model used hydrological routing to map the "mitigated area" upslope of each woodland patch. We found that more fragmented woodland mitigated a greater proportion of the catchment. Larger woodland area also increased mitigation, however, this increase was nonlinear, with a threshold at 50% coverage, above which there was a decline in service provision. This nonlinearity suggests that the benefit of any additional woodland depends on two factors: the level of fragmentation and the existing area of woodland. Edge density (total edge of patches divided by area of catchment) was the best single metric in predicting mitigated area. Distance from woodland to stream was not a significant predictor of mitigation, suggesting that agri-environment schemes planting riparian woodland should consider additional controls such as the amount of fragmentation in the landscape. These findings highlight the potential benefits of fragmentation to hydrological mitigation services. However, benefits for hydrological services must be balanced against any negative effects of fragmentation or habitat loss on biodiversity and other services.

Rapid urbanisation threatens fertile agricultural land and soil carbon in the Nile delta.

Agriculture land in Egypt represents only 3.8% of the total area. The Nile delta provides two thirds of Egypt's agriculture land, but is threatened by urban sprawl. The paper aims to quantify urban expansion over a 45 year period using 6 time points from 1972 to 2017, and its impacts on agricultural potential, soil organic carbon stocks, and implications for water use. The study used multi-temporal satellite data and remote sensing techniques (Maximum Likelihood supervised classification, and NDVI), soil sampling and analysis, data on water irrigation, and agroecological system and ecosystem services model (MicroLEIS, InVEST) to assess the effects of land use change. Urban area increased by a factor of 5, from 452 km2 in 1972 to 2644 km2 in 2017. The greatest losses occurred to the fertile Vertic Torrifluvent soils on the older delta, which lost 1734 km2. Soil organic carbon (0-75 cm depth) lost as a result of soil sealing from urbanisation rose from 25,000 to 141,000 Mg C over the 45 years. As a result of increased pressure on delta land, agriculture expanded into the higher desert areas outside the delta, on marginal land sustained by intensive fertiliser use and irrigation, which in turn puts pressure on water use. Therefore, rapid urban expansion has resulted in a loss of soil carbon and a shift in agriculture from fertile soils to marginal soils, requiring more capital inputs, which is ultimately less sustainable. Modelling suggested that soil management improvement could make better use of fertile soils within the Delta currently affected by high salinity and poor drainage. Future planning should encourage urban expansion on the less fertile soils outside of the delta, while improving suitability of existing agricultural land and minimising land degradation within the delta.

Zones of influence for soil organic matter dynamics: A conceptual framework for data and models.

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an indicator of sustainable land management as stated in the global indicator framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG Indicator 15.3.1). Improved forecasting of future changes in SOM is needed to support the development of more sustainable land management under a changing climate. Current models fail to reproduce historical trends in SOM both within and during transition between ecosystems. More realistic spatio-temporal SOM dynamics require inclusion of the recent paradigm shift from SOM recalcitrance as an 'intrinsic property' to SOM persistence as an 'ecosystem interaction'. We present a soil profile, or pedon-explicit, ecosystem-scale framework for data and models of SOM distribution and dynamics which can better represent land use transitions. Ecosystem-scale drivers are integrated with pedon-scale processes in two zones of influence. In the upper vegetation zone, SOM is affected primarily by plant inputs (above- and belowground), climate, microbial activity and physical aggregation and is prone to destabilization. In the lower mineral matrix zone, SOM inputs from the vegetation zone are controlled primarily by mineral phase and chemical interactions, resulting in more favourable conditions for SOM persistence. Vegetation zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (vegetation cover) and temporally at decadal scales (climate). Mineral matrix zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (geology, topography) but change only slowly. The thicknesses of the two zones and their transport connectivity are dynamic and affected by plant cover, land use practices, climate and feedbacks from current SOM stock in each layer. Using this framework, we identify several areas where greater knowledge is needed to advance the emerging paradigm of SOM dynamics-improved representation of plant-derived carbon inputs, contributions of soil biota to SOM storage and effect of dynamic soil structure on SOM storage-and how this can be combined with robust and efficient soil monitoring.

Impact of long-term nitrogen deposition on the response of dune grassland ecosystems to elevated summer ozone.

Nitrogen deposition and tropospheric ozone are important drivers of vegetation damage, but their interactive effects are poorly understood. This study assessed whether long-term nitrogen deposition altered sensitivity to ozone in a semi-natural vegetation community. Mesocosms were collected from sand dune grassland in the UK along a nitrogen gradient (5-25 kg N/ha/y, including two plots from a long-term experiment), and fumigated for 2.5 months to simulate medium and high ozone exposure. Ozone damage to leaves was quantified for 20 ozone-sensitive species. Soil solution dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and soil extracellular enzymes were measured to investigate secondary effects on soil processes. Mesocosms from sites receiving the highest N deposition showed the least ozone-related leaf damage, while those from the least N-polluted sites were the most damaged by ozone. This was due to differences in community-level sensitivity, rather than species-level impacts. The N-polluted sites contained fewer ozone-sensitive forbs and sedges, and a higher proportion of comparatively ozone-resistant grasses. This difference in the vegetation composition of mesocosms in relation to N deposition conveyed differential resilience to ozone. Mesocosms in the highest ozone treatment showed elevated soil solution DOC with increasing site N deposition. This suggests that, despite showing relatively little leaf damage, the 'ozone resilient' vegetation community may still sustain physiological damage through reduced capacity to assimilate photosynthate, with its subsequent loss as DOC through the roots into the soil. We conclude that for dune grassland habitats, the regions of highest risk to ozone exposure are those that have received the lowest level of long-term nitrogen deposition. This highlights the importance of considering community- and ecosystem-scale impacts of pollutants in addition to impacts on individual species. It also underscores the need for protection of 'clean' habitats from air pollution and other environmental stressors.

A synthesis of ecosystem management strategies for forests in the face of chronic nitrogen deposition.

Total nitrogen (N) deposition has declined in many parts of the U.S. and Europe since the 1990s. Even so, it appears that decreased N deposition alone may be insufficient to induce recovery from the impacts of decades of elevated deposition, suggesting that management interventions may be necessary to promote recovery. Here we review the effectiveness of four remediation approaches (prescribed burning, thinning, liming, carbon addition) on three indicators of recovery from N deposition (decreased soil N availability, increased soil alkalinity, increased plant diversity), focusing on literature from the U.S. We reviewed papers indexed in the Web of Science since 1996 using specific key words, extracted data on the responses to treatment along with ancillary data, and conducted a meta-analysis using a three-level variance model structure. We found 69 publications (and 2158 responses) that focused on one of these remediation treatments in the context of N deposition, but only 29 publications (and 408 responses) reported results appropriate for our meta-analysis. We found that carbon addition was the only treatment that decreased N availability (effect size: -1.80 to -1.84 across metrics), while liming, thinning, and prescribed burning all tended to increase N availability (effect sizes: +0.4 to +1.2). Only liming had a significant positive effect on soil alkalinity (+10.5%-82.2% across metrics). Only prescribed burning and thinning affected plant diversity, but with opposing and often statistically marginal effects across metrics (i.e., increased richness, decreased Shannon or Simpson diversity). Thus, it appears that no single treatment is effective in promoting recovery from N deposition, and combinations of treatments should be explored. These conclusions are based on the limited published data available, underscoring the need for more studies in forested areas and more consistent reporting suitable for meta-analyses across studies.

Not just a sandy beach. The multi-service value of Mediterranean coastal dunes.

Coastal sand dunes are complex transitional systems hosting high levels of biodiversity and providing important benefits to society. In this paper we aimed to evaluate the multi-service nature of ecosystem services (ES) supply in the dunes of the Italian Adriatic coast within Natura 2000 (N2K) sites. We i) identified ES indicators and assessed the supply capacity (Climate regulation, Protection from wind and aerosol, Erosion regulation, Recreation and Tourism and Existence value of biodiversity) of natural dune ecosystems of European conservation concern; ii) upscaled this data to create an inventory of ES supply for all dune N2K sites in the study area; iii) explored the trade-offs among ES; and iv) summarized and spatially compared the overall multi-service value of the N2K sites. The study provides a method for quantifying the role of N2K sites in supplying benefits for our society. We found that the multi-service capacity of coastal dunes is uneven within sites and within administrative regions. This variability is related to both ecological (e.g. distribution, ecological integrity, extent and conservation status of dune habitats) and administrative (e.g. local implementation of the Habitats Directive) characteristics of the analysed area. ES are not coupled as several sites with high values for one ES show very low values for others. The results suggest that conservation actions should favour restoration of the natural dune zonation, since this underpins multi-service ES supply. The approach can distinguish regions with high ES values and regions where the paucity of protected areas represents a gap in ES supply, fact that offers an incentive to enhance the protection strategy but also suggests an urgent need to improve the N2K network by enlarging existent sites and including new ones.

What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

Nitrogen (N) deposition poses a severe risk to global terrestrial ecosystems, and managing this threat is an important focus for air pollution science and policy. To understand and manage the impacts of N deposition, we need metrics which accurately reflect N deposition pressure on the environment, and are responsive to changes in both N deposition and its impacts over time. In the UK, the metric typically used is a measure of total N deposition over 1-3 years, despite evidence that N accumulates in many ecosystems and impacts from low-level exposure can take considerable time to develop. Improvements in N deposition modelling now allow the development of metrics which incorporate the long-term history of pollution, as well as current exposure. Here we test the potential of alternative N deposition metrics to explain vegetation compositional variability in British semi-natural habitats. We assembled 36 individual datasets representing 48,332 occurrence records in 5479 quadrats from 1683 sites, and used redundancy analyses to test the explanatory power of 33 alternative N metrics based on national pollutant deposition models. We find convincing evidence for N deposition impacts across datasets and habitats, even when accounting for other large-scale drivers of vegetation change. Metrics that incorporate long-term N deposition trajectories consistently explain greater compositional variance than 1-3 year N deposition. There is considerable variability in results across habitats and between similar metrics, but overall we propose that a thirty-year moving window of cumulative deposition is optimal to represent impacts on plant communities for application in science, policy and management.

Research challenges for cultural ecosystem services and public health in (peri-)urban environments.

Urbanization is a global trend, and consequently the quality of urban environments is increasingly important for human health and wellbeing. Urban life-style is typically associated with low physical activity and sometimes with high mental stress, both contributing to an increasing burden of diseases. Nature-based solutions that make effective use of ecosystem services, particularly of cultural ecosystem services (CES), can provide vital building blocks to address these challenges. This paper argues that, the salutogenic, i.e. health-promoting effects of CES have so far not been adequately recognised and deserve more explicit attention in order to enhance decision making around health and wellbeing in urban areas. However, a number of research challenges will need to be addressed to reveal the mechanisms, which underpin delivery of urban CES. These include: causal chains of supply and demand, equity, and equality of public health benefits promoted. Methodological challenges in quantifying these are discussed. The paper is highly relevant for policy makers within and beyond Europe, and also serves as a review for current researchers and as a roadmap to future short- and long-term research opportunities.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Connecting Earth observation to high-throughput biodiversity data.

Understandably, given the fast pace of biodiversity loss, there is much interest in using Earth observation technology to track biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. However, because most biodiversity is invisible to Earth observation, indicators based on Earth observation could be misleading and reduce the effectiveness of nature conservation and even unintentionally decrease conservation effort. We describe an approach that combines automated recording devices, high-throughput DNA sequencing and modern ecological modelling to extract much more of the information available in Earth observation data. This approach is achievable now, offering efficient and near-real-time monitoring of management impacts on biodiversity and its functions and services.

Speaking Up: How Patient and Physician Voices Shaped a Trial to Improve Goals-of-Care Discussions.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced cancer benefit from early goals-of-care (GoC) conversations, but few facilitators are known. OBJECTIVE: We describe the process and outcomes of involving patient and physician stakeholders in the design and development of a trial, funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), to enhance oncologists' communication skills and their propensity to facilitate productive, meaningful GoC discussions with patients with advanced cancer. METHODS: We recruited oncologists, palliative care physicians, and patient stakeholders to participate in proposal development, intervention design and modification, identification of outcome measures, and refinement of study tools. Formats for exchange included 1:1 structured interviews, workshops, and stakeholder meetings. RESULTS: Patient and physician voices helped craft and implement a study of an intervention to enhance oncologists' ability to facilitate GoC discussions with patients with advanced cancer. Physician inputs guided the creation of an oncologist and palliative care physician "joint visit" intervention at a turning point in disease management. Patient inputs impacted on the language used, outcome measures assessed, and approaches used to introduce patients to the intervention visit. CONCLUSIONS: Stakeholder input informed the development of a novel intervention that physicians seemed to find both valuable and in sync with their needs and their practice schedules. Where communication about difficult subjects and shared decision making are involved, including multiple stakeholder groups in study design, implementation, and outcomes measurement may have far-reaching effects.

Radiation capture and conversion efficiencies of Miscanthus sacchariflorus, M. sinensis and their naturally occurring hybrid M. × giganteus.

Miscanthus is a rhizomatous C4 grass of great interest as a biofuel crop because it has the potential to produce high yields over a wide geographical area with low agricultural inputs on marginal land less suitable for food production. At the moment, a clonal interspecific hybrid Miscanthus × giganteus is the most widely cultivated and studied in Europe and the United States, but breeding programmes are developing newer more productive varieties. Here, we quantified the physiological processes relating to whole season yield in a replicated plot trial in Wales, UK. Light capture and conversion efficiency were parameterized for four carefully selected genotypes (M. sinensis, M. sacchariflorus and Miscanthus × giganteus). Differences in the canopy architecture in mature stands as measured by the extinction coefficient (k) were small (0.55-0.65). Sensitivity analysis on a mathematical model of Miscanthus was performed to quantify the accumulative intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (iPAR) in the growing season using (i) k, (ii) variation in the thermal responses of leaf expansion rate, (iii) base temperature for degree days and (iv) date start of canopy expansion. A 10% increase in k or leaf area per degree day both had a minimal effect on iPAR (3%). Decreasing base temperature from 10 to 9 °C gave an 8% increase in iPAR. If the starting date for canopy expansion was the same as shoot emergence date, then the iPAR increases by 12.5%. In M. × giganteus, the whole season above ground and total (including below ground) radiation-use efficiency (RUE) ranged from 45% to 37% higher than the noninterspecific hybrid genotypes. The greater yields in the interspecific hybrid M. × giganteus are explained by the higher RUE and not by differences in iPAR or partitioning effects. Studying the mechanisms underlying this complex trait could have wide benefits for both fuel and food production.