Did the English strategy reduce inequalities in health? A difference-in-difference analysis comparing England with three other European countries.

BACKGROUND: Between 1997 and 2010, the English government pursued an ambitious programme to reduce health inequalities, the explicit and sustained commitment of which was historically and internationally unique. Previous evaluations have produced mixed results. None of these evaluations have, however, compared the trends in health inequalities within England with those in other European countries. We carried out an innovative analysis to assess whether changes in trends in health inequalities observed in England after the implementation of its programme, have been more favourable than those in other countries without such a programme. METHODS: Data were obtained from nationally representative surveys carried out in England, Finland, the Netherlands and Italy for years around 1990, 2000 and 2010. A modified difference-in-difference approach was used to assess whether trends in health inequalities in 2000-2010 were more favourable as compared to the period 1990-2000 in England, and the changes in trends in inequalities after 2000 in England were then compared to those in the three comparison countries. Health outcomes were self-assessed health, long-standing health problems, smoking status and obesity. Education was used as indicator of socioeconomic position. RESULTS: After the implementation of the English strategy, more favourable trends in some health indicators were observed among low-educated people, but trends in health inequalities in 2000-2010 in England were not more favourable than those observed in the period 1990-2000. For most health indicators, changes in trends of health inequalities after 2000 in England were also not significantly different from those seen in the other countries. CONCLUSIONS: In this rigorous analysis comparing trends in health inequalities in England both over time and between countries, we could not detect a favourable effect of the English strategy. Our analysis illustrates the usefulness of a modified difference-in-difference approach for assessing the impact of policies on population-level health inequalities.

Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health.

Smoking and the potential for reduction of inequalities in mortality in Europe.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality remain a widely recognized problem. Countries with smaller inequalities in smoking have smaller inequalities in mortality, and smoking plays an important part in the explanation of inequalities in some countries. We identify the potential for reducing inequalities in all-cause and smoking-related mortality in 19 European populations, by applying different scenarios of smoking exposure. Smoking prevalence information and mortality data come from 19 European populations. Prevalence rates are mostly taken from National Health Surveys conducted around the year 2000. Mortality rates are based on country-specific longitudinal or cross-sectional datasets. Relative risks come from the Cancer Prevention Study II. Besides all-cause mortality we analyze several smoking-related cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma. We use a newly-developed tool to quantify the changes in population health potentially resulting from modifying the population distribution of exposure to smoking. This tool is based on the epidemiological measure of the population attributable fraction, and estimates the impact of scenario-based distributions of smoking on educational inequalities in mortality. The potential reduction of relative inequality in all-cause mortality between those with high and low education amounts up to 26 % for men and 32 % for women. More than half of the relative inequality may be reduced for some causes of death, often in countries of Northern Europe and in Britain. Patterns of potential reduction in inequality differ by country or region and sex, suggesting that the priority given to smoking as an entry-point for tackling health inequalities should differ between countries.

Assessing the knowledge of the potential harm to others caused by second-hand smoke and its impact on protective behaviours at home.

BACKGROUND: Smokers' knowledge of the risks of second-hand smoke (SHS) and the role this plays in implementing behaviours to reduce the SHS exposure of others have not been thoroughly explored. Mass media health promotion is used to promote behaviour change partly by providing information on the consequences of behaviour. In England, between 2003 and 2006, frequent mass media campaigns highlighted the toxicity of SHS. OBJECTIVES: To examine peoples' knowledge of SHS-related illnesses in England over time, identify the determinants of good knowledge and to assess its importance in predicting SHS-protective behaviours. METHODS: Statistical analysis of repeat cross-sectional data (1996-2008) from the Omnibus Survey to explore the trends and determinants of knowledge of SHS-related illnesses and the determinants of SHS-protective behaviours. RESULTS: Only 40% of smokers had 'good' knowledge of SHS-related illnesses compared with 65% of never smokers. Knowledge increased markedly when frequent SHS-related mass media campaigns (2003-06) ran, compared with earlier years (1996-2002). Smokers with better knowledge were more likely to have smoke-free homes [odds ratio (OR): 1.10, 1.04-1.16] and abstain from smoking in a room with children (OR: 1.11, 1.09-1.14). CONCLUSIONS: The low levels of knowledge of some SHS-related conditions, especially among smokers, and the relationship between knowledge and SHS-protective behaviours, suggest that greater efforts to educate smokers about the risks associated with SHS are worthwhile.

International children's accelerometry database (ICAD): design and methods.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, accelerometers have increased in popularity as an objective measure of physical activity in free-living individuals. Evidence suggests that objective measures, rather than subjective tools such as questionnaires, are more likely to detect associations between physical activity and health in children. To date, a number of studies of children and adolescents across diverse cultures around the globe have collected accelerometer measures of physical activity accompanied by a broad range of predictor variables and associated health outcomes. The International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD) project pooled and reduced raw accelerometer data using standardized methods to create comparable outcome variables across studies. Such data pooling has the potential to improve our knowledge regarding the strength of relationships between physical activity and health. This manuscript describes the contributing studies, outlines the standardized methods used to process the accelerometer data and provides the initial questions which will be addressed using this novel data repository. METHODS: Between September 2008 and May 2010 46,131 raw Actigraph data files and accompanying anthropometric, demographic and health data collected on children (aged 3-18 years) were obtained from 20 studies worldwide and data was reduced using standardized analytical methods. RESULTS: When using ≥ 8, ≥ 10 and ≥ 12 hrs of wear per day as a criterion, 96%, 93.5% and 86.2% of the males, respectively, and 96.3%, 93.7% and 86% of the females, respectively, had at least one valid day of data. CONCLUSIONS: Pooling raw accelerometer data and accompanying phenotypic data from a number of studies has the potential to: a) increase statistical power due to a large sample size, b) create a more heterogeneous and potentially more representative sample, c) standardize and optimize the analytical methods used in the generation of outcome variables, and d) provide a means to study the causes of inter-study variability in physical activity. Methodological challenges include inflated variability in accelerometry measurements and the wide variation in tools and methods used to collect non-accelerometer data.

One-year outcomes and a cost-effectiveness analysis for smokers accessing group-based and pharmacy-led cessation services.

INTRODUCTION: An observational study examining 1-year follow-up of clients of two National Health Service smoking cessation services in Glasgow was used to inform a cost-effectiveness analysis. One service involved 7 weeks of group-based support (n = 411) and the other consisted of up to 12 weeks of one-to-one counseling with pharmacists (n = 1,374). Pharmacological aids to quitting (e.g., nicotine replacement therapy) were available to all clients. METHODS: Quit rates were calculated for each service at 52 weeks after the quit date, and these were used for an economic evaluation of both the annual and the lifetime cost-effectiveness of the pharmacy- and group-based interventions in comparison with a baseline "self-quit" scenario. The annual cost-effectiveness model established the incremental cost per 52-week quitter, while a Markov model was developed for the lifetime analysis to estimate the potential lifetime outcomes in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, to account for the benefits quitters will receive in terms of extended life years and improvements in quality of life from smoking cessation. RESULTS: The proportion of carbon monoxide-validated quitters from both services combined fell from 22.5% at 4-week follow-up to 3.6% at 52 weeks. The group service achieved a higher quit rate (6.3%) than the pharmacy service (2.8%) but was more intensive and required greater overhead costs. The lifetime analysis resulted in an incremental cost per QALY of £4,800 for the group support and £2,600 for pharmacy one-to-one counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Despite disappointing 1-year quit rates, both services were considered to be highly cost-effective.

Social inequalities in quitting smoking: what factors mediate the relationship between socioeconomic position and smoking cessation?

BACKGROUND: Smokers from lower socio-economic groups are less likely to be successful in a quit attempt than more affluent smokers, even when they access smoking cessation services. METHODS: Data were collected from smoking cessation service users from three contrasting areas of Great Britain-Glasgow, North Cumbria and Nottingham. Routine monitoring data were supplemented with CO-validated smoking status at 52-week follow-up and survey data on socio-economic circumstances and smoking-related behaviour. Analysis was restricted to the 2397 clients aged between 25 and 59. RESULTS: At 52-week follow-up, 14.3% of the most affluent smokers remained quit compared with only 5.3% of the most disadvantaged. After adjustment for demographic factors, the most advantaged clients at the English sites and the Glasgow one-to-one programme were significantly more likely to have remained abstinent than those who were most disadvantaged [odds ratio: 2.5, confidence interval (CI): 1.4-4.7 and 7.5 CI: 1.4-40.3, respectively). Mechanisms producing the inequalities appeared to include treatment compliance, household smokers and referral source. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than quitting smoking, disadvantaged smokers quit treatment. More should be done to encourage them to persevere through the first few weeks. Other causes of inequalities in quitting varied with the service provided.

Trends in and predictors of second-hand smoke exposure indexed by cotinine in children in England from 1996 to 2006.

AIMS: To explore trends in and predictors of second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure in children. To identify whether inequalities in SHS exposure are changing over time. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional study with data from eight annual surveys conducted over an 11-year period from 1996 to 2006. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative samples of children aged 4-15 years living in private households. MEASUREMENTS: Saliva cotinine (4-15-year-olds), current smoking status (8-15-year-olds), smoking status of parents and carers, smoking in the home, socio-demographic variables. FINDINGS: The most important predictors of SHS exposure were modifiable factors-whether people smoke in the house on most days, whether the parents smoke and whether the children are looked after by carers who smoke. Children from more deprived households were more exposed and this remained the case even after parental smoking status has been controlled for. Exposure over time has fallen markedly among children (59% decline over 11 years in geometric mean cotinine), with the most marked decline observed in the period immediately preceding smoke-free legislation. Declines in exposure have generally been greater in children most exposed at the outset. For example, in children whose parents both smoke, median cotinine declined annually by 0.115 ng/ml compared with 0.019 ng/ml where neither parent smokes (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the 11 years leading up to smoke-free legislation in England, the overall level of SHS exposure in children as well as absolute inequalities in exposure have been declining. Further efforts to encourage parents and carers to quit and to avoid smoking in the home would benefit child health.

A comparison of the effectiveness of group-based and pharmacy-led smoking cessation treatment in Glasgow.

AIM: To compare the characteristics and outcomes of users accessing pharmacy and group-based smoking treatment. DESIGN: Observational study of administrative information linked with survey data. SETTING: Glasgow, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1785 service users who set a quit date between March and May 2007. INTERVENTION: Smoking treatment services based in pharmacies providing one-to-one support, and in the community offering group support. MEASUREMENTS: Routine monitoring data included information about basic demographic characteristics, deprivation category of residence, nature of intervention and smoking status at 4-week follow-up determined by carbon monoxide (CO) readings < or = 10. These data were supplemented by information about socio-economic status and smoking-related behaviours obtained from consenting service recipients by treatment advisers. FINDINGS: In the pharmacy-based service 18.6 % of users (n = 1374) were CO-validated as a quitter at 4 weeks, compared with 35.5 % (n = 411) in the group-based service. In a multivariate model, restricted to participants (n = 1366) with data allowing adjustment for socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics and including interaction terms, users who accessed the group-based services were almost twice as likely (odds ratio 1.980; confidence interval 1.50-2.62) as those who used pharmacy-based support to have quit smoking at 4-week follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Specialist-led group-based services appear to have higher quit rates than one-to-one services provided by pharmacies but the pharmacy services treat many more smokers. More research is needed to determine what can be done to bring the success rates of pharmacy services up to those of specialist-led groups and how to expand access to group-based services.

Off target: a critical review of setting goals for reducing health inequalities in the United Kingdom.

Health policy in the United Kingdom is devolved to the four home countries. Nevertheless, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales share a common commitment to reducing health inequalities and have set explicit targets in areas such as life expectancy, cancer mortality, long-standing illness, and smoking prevalence. However, many of the targets leave much to be desired in terms of their limited conceptual scope and their selection of methods and approaches. At one level this might be regarded as relatively unimportant. The mere fact of having health inequalities targets is laudable. But because the United Kingdom has been in the vanguard of research and policy development to reduce health inequalities, a critical appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches adopted in the four home countries is timely. Following a description of the health inequalities targets, the article focuses on experiences in England and Scotland as examples of contrasting approaches to target setting and describes progress toward meeting targets in each country. The authors then outline key emerging issues in relation to developing targets and measuring progress, including conceptual dilemmas, biased reporting, implementation failure, and statistical fallacy.

Welfare state regimes and differences in self-perceived health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

The aim of this study was to determine the degree to which welfare state regime characteristics explained the proportional variation of self-perceived health between European countries, when individual and regional variation was accounted for, by undertaking a multilevel analysis of the European Social Survey (2002 and 2004). A total of 65,065 individuals, from 218 regions and 21 countries, aged 25 years and above were included in the analysis. The health outcomes related to people's own mental and physical health, in general. The study showed that almost 90% of the variation in health was attributable to the individual-level, while approximately 10% was associated with national welfare state characteristics. The variation across regions within countries was not significant. Type of welfare state regime appeared to account for approximately half of the national-level variation of health inequalities between European countries. People in countries with Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon welfare regimes were observed to have better self-perceived general health in comparison to Southern and East European welfare regimes.

Assessing the impact of smoking cessation services on reducing health inequalities in England: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: NHS stop smoking services are expected to play a key part in achieving the infant mortality and life expectancy health inequality targets in England by reducing smoking prevalence in deprived areas. This paper assesses the extent to which services have made a contribution to reducing inequalities in smoking between 2003-4 and 2005-6. METHODS: Synthetic estimates of baseline smoking prevalence data were compared with national monitoring data about the numbers of smokers in receipt of services and the proportion who self report quitting at four weeks. The social distribution of service recipients and quitters was compared with estimates of smoking prevalence to assess impact on inequalities. Comparisons were made between officially designated disadvantaged areas (the Spearhead Group) and others. RESULTS: Short-term cessation rates were lower in disadvantaged areas (52.6%) than elsewhere (57.9%) (p<0.001), but the proportion of smokers being treated was higher (16.7% compared with 13.4%) (p<0.001). The net effect was that a higher proportion of smokers in the most disadvantaged areas reported success (8.8%) than in more advantaged areas (7.8%) (p<0.001). Using the evidence-based assumption that three-quarters of short-term quitters will relapse within one year, the absolute and relative rate gaps in smoking prevalence between Spearhead areas and others are estimated to fall by small but statistically significant amounts from 5.2 and 1.215 (CIs: 1.216 to 1.213) to 5.0 and 1.212 (CIs: 1.213 to 1.210) between 2003-4 and 2005-6. CONCLUSION: NHS stop smoking services have probably made a modest contribution to reducing inequalities in smoking prevalence. To achieve government targets, however, requires both the development of more innovative cessation interventions for the most addicted smokers and action to ensure that other aspects of tobacco control policy make a larger contribution to inequality goals.

Acute mountain sickness and ascent rates in trekkers above 2500 m in the Nepali Himalaya.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to ascertain the incidence of acute mountain sickness (AMS) at different altitudes in the Solu-Khumbu. This was a pilot to examine the feasibility of investigating demographic, behavioral, and physiological factors related to the etiology of AMS and to assess the region's suitability for a future study. METHODS: A convenience sample of 150 recreational trekkers staying in teahouses was interviewed at altitudes above 2500 m. Two interviews were performed, firstly in the evening and then the subsequent morning. Trekker's age, gender, ascent profile, and use of acetazolamide were noted. A Lake Louise score was calculated to determine the presence of AMS. RESULTS: The incidence of AMS was 0% at 2500-3000 m, 10% between 3000-4000 m, 15% between 4000-4500 m, 51% between 4500-5000 m, and 34% over 5000 m. There was no significant association between age or gender and the altitude studied or incidence of AMS. Subjects with AMS ascended significantly further in the preceding 72 h than subjects without AMS, with a mean altitude gained of 846 m vs. 722 m. DISCUSSION: We concur with the literature that incidence of AMS increases with altitude. We found an abrupt increase in incidence over 4500 m. This appears to be a new finding. A future study examining factors predisposing to AMS would be most effectively performed above 4500 m. No association was found between age or gender and AMS. Mean vertical ascent gained in the previous 72 h was significantly higher among the trekkers with AMS but remained within recommended guidelines.

Can knowledge protect against acute mountain sickness?

BACKGROUND: Studies show that the well-prepared traveller is less likely to suffer travel related illness. This study is designed to examine trekkers' knowledge of altitude sickness in an attempt to see whether knowledge can protect against acute mountain sickness (AMS) and high altitude pulmonary or cerebral oedema (HAPE/HACE). METHODS: A convenience sample of 130 trekkers were interviewed in the Solu Khumbu region of Nepal. They were asked what action they would take firstly if they developed symptoms of AMS, and secondly, symptoms of HAPE/HACE whilst ascending. Options were to continue up, stay at the same altitude, descend or ask their guide. RESULTS: With symptoms of moderate to severe AMS, 37 trekkers (28 per cent) indicated they would continue their ascent while 113 (72 per cent) would not. Those individuals who proposed continued ascent were significantly more likely to be suffering from symptoms of AMS (p = 0.025) and had ascended significantly more rapidly over the preceding 72 h (p = 0.004) then those who proposed to halt their ascent. With regard to symptoms of HAPE/HACE, 12 (9 per cent) indicated they would not descend, demonstrating no association with AMS (p = 0.07) or ascent in preceding 72 h (p = 0.7). CONCLUSION: Trekkers who indicated that they would act safely in the event of developing moderate to severe AMS were significantly less likely to be suffering from AMS when interviewed and had ascended significantly less altitude in the preceding 72 h being more likely to adhere to recommended ascent guidelines.

Evaluating "Starting Well", the Scottish national demonstration project for child health: outcomes at six months.

This paper presents early findings from the evaluation of Starting Well, an intensive home visiting program aimed at improving the health of pre-school children in disadvantaged areas of Glasgow, Scotland. Using a quasi-experimental design, detailed survey, observation and interview data were collected on a cohort of 213 intervention and 146 comparison families over the first six months of the child's life. After controlling for relevant background characteristics, multivariate regression analysis revealed higher child dental registration rates and lower rates of maternal depressive symptoms in the intervention cohort. Findings are interpreted as positive evidence of early program impact. Implications, limitations and future plans for analysis are discussed. EDITORS' STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: Starting Well draws on elements of an Australian parent education program and an American home visitation model. The authors demonstrate how the program implementation, research questions, and measurement are designed to fit their Glasgow population and the Scottish public health system. Their quasi-experimental data suggest that this primary prevention program is a promising strategy for improving maternal and child health outcomes.

The English smoking treatment services: short-term outcomes.

AIMS: To examine the impact of socio-demographic factors, smoking-related behaviour and service characteristics on CO-validated quit rates at 4-week follow-up in English smoking treatment services, and to compare the results with those for self-reported quitters. DESIGN: Observational study of administrative information linked with survey data for 6959 recipients of smoking treatment services who set a quit date between October 2001 and March 2003. SETTING: Two contrasting areas of England, Nottingham and North Cumbria, consisting of nine primary care trust (PCT) localities. MEASUREMENTS: Routine monitoring data specified by the Department of Health included information about basic demographic characteristics, postcode of residence from which a deprivation category was identified, nature of intervention and smoking status at 4-week follow-up. These data were supplemented with additional information about referral pathways, socio-economic status and smoking-related behaviours obtained from consenting service recipients by NHS advisers. FINDINGS: More than one-half of clients (53%) were CO-validated as quitters at 4 weeks, rising to 60.7% when self-reported cases were included. Age (OR 1.026; CI 1.0221.029) and being extremely determined to quit (OR 1.46; CI 1.261.71) were associated positively with CO-validated cessation, whereas women (OR 0.85; CI 0.770.94), users with lower socio-economic status (OR 0.92; CI 0.880.95), those smoking 31 or more cigarettes daily (OR 0.75; CI 0.640.88) and those with relatively poor health status (OR 0.72; CI 0.630.82) were less likely to quit. Although the vast majority of users received one-to-one support, those who had group counselling were more likely to be successful in their quit attempt (OR 1.38; CI 1.091.76). Self-report and CO-validated quitters were similar in terms of their characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: These results obtained from routine services support those obtained from clinical trials and confirm the effectiveness of counselling combined with pharmacotherapies to assist smokers to quit in the short term. However, the relative effectiveness of group interventions raises questions about why one-to-one counselling is used much more commonly. The importance of socio-demographic and nicotine-related dependency factors also suggests that local service targets for smoking cessation need to take account of the social distribution of these characteristics.

How effective are the English smoking treatment services in reaching disadvantaged smokers?

AIMS: To determine the effectiveness of smoking cessation services in enabling smokers living in disadvantaged areas to access treatment services, and to assess the extent of variations between areas. DESIGN: Observational study of administrative information linked with survey data. SETTING: A representative sample of 19 of the 95 English health areas in 2001. MEASUREMENTS: All England smoking data by deprivation category obtained from the Health Survey of England were used to estimate neighbourhood smoking prevalence rates. Area of residence data from smokers setting a quit date were used to calculate the proportion of smokers in receipt of treatment services in different economic deprivation categories. FINDINGS: In general, treatment services were seeing smokers from the most disadvantaged areas where smoking prevalence rates were highest; 32.3% of all smokers in receipt of treatment services lived in the most disadvantaged quintile of areas compared with 9.6% resident in the most advantaged quintile. An indicator of 'positive discrimination' was calculated for each health authority area to quantify the extent to which the proportion of disadvantaged smokers being treated was greater than the proportion in the local population. This figure ranged from just under 0% to 18%. CONCLUSIONS: National Health Service (NHS) smoking cessation services have been successful in reaching smokers from disadvantaged communities. If improved access to support for smokers living in the poorest communities can be extended, sustained and translated into long-term quitting then smoking cessation services have the potential to make a useful contribution to addressing inequalities in health.

The English smoking treatment services: one-year outcomes.

AIMS: To assess the impact of English treatment services on CO-validated quit rates at 52-week follow-up, to explore the relationship between service-related characteristics and socio-demographic and behavioural factors with cessation outcomes, and to compare the characteristics of service users lost to follow-up with CO-validated quitters. DESIGN: Observational study of administrative information linked with survey data for 2069 recipients of smoking treatment services who set a quit date between May and November 2002. SETTING: Two contrasting areas of England, Nottingham and North Cumbria, consisting of nine primary care trust (PCT) localities. MEASUREMENTS: Routine monitoring data specified by the Department of Health included information about basic demographic characteristics, postcode of residence from which a deprivation category was identified, nature of intervention, and smoking status at 4-week follow-up. These data were supplemented with information about smoking status at 52 weeks, referral pathways, relapse experiences, number of follow-up contact attempts, socio-economic status and smoking-related behaviours obtained from consenting service recipients by treatment advisers. FINDINGS: One user in seven (14.6%) reported prolonged abstinence and was CO-validated as a successful quitter at 52 weeks. This rose to 17.7% when self-report cases were included. Relapse rates between 4 and 52 weeks were almost identical between the two study areas--75%. Relapse was most likely to occur in the first 6 months following treatment. Users who self-reported quitting at 4 weeks were less likely (13.7%) than those with biochemical verification of smoking status at 4 weeks (25.2%) to be CO-validated quitters at 52 weeks (P = 0.004). Older users (OR 1.023; CI 1.014-1.032), people who smoke mainly for pleasure rather than to cope (OR 1.38; CI 1.02-1.87), and those who were extremely determined (OR 1.58; CI 1.21-2.05) were more likely to be quitters at 52-week follow-up, whereas those with lower socio-economic status (OR 0.86; CI 0.78-0.96), who smoked their first cigarette of the day within 5 minutes of waking (OR 0.73; CI 0.55-0.96) or had another smoker in their household (OR 0.65; CI 0.49-0.86) were less likely. In contrast, users lost to follow-up tended to be younger and experienced different referral pathways than CO-validated quitters. Gender was not statistically significantly associated with cessation at 52 weeks and nor were any of the key characteristics of intervention, such as group or one-to-one counselling. CONCLUSIONS: These results obtained from routine services are consistent with those obtained from clinical trials in relation to abstinence at one year. Given that a high proportion of smokers relapsed between 4 weeks and 1 year it is important that future assessments of longer-term outcomes are conducted. However, following-up service users many months after an intervention is expensive, and reasonable estimates of quit rates can be estimated from short-term outcomes, provided that they have been CO-validated. Future studies should monitor outcomes from a selection of services treating different groups of smokers, particularly if more is to be learned about the role of smoking treatment services in reducing inequalities in health.