Precision Diagnostics in Myeloid Malignancies: Development and Validation of a National Capture-Based Gene Panel.

Gene panel sequencing has become a common diagnostic tool for detecting somatically acquired mutations in myeloid neoplasms. However, many panels have restricted content, provide insufficient sensitivity levels, or lack clinically validated workflows. We here describe the development and validation of the Genomic Medicine Sweden myeloid gene panel (GMS-MGP), a capture-based 191 gene panel including mandatory genes in contemporary guidelines as well as emerging candidates. The GMS-MGP displayed uniform coverage across all targets, including recognized difficult GC-rich areas. The validation of 117 previously described somatic variants showed a 100% concordance with a limit-of-detection of a 0.5% variant allele frequency (VAF), achieved by utilizing error correction and filtering against a panel-of-normals. A national interlaboratory comparison investigating 56 somatic variants demonstrated highly concordant results in both detection rate and reported VAFs. In addition, prospective analysis of 323 patients analyzed with the GMS-MGP as part of standard-of-care identified clinically significant genes as well as recurrent mutations in less well-studied genes. In conclusion, the GMS-MGP workflow supports sensitive detection of all clinically relevant genes, facilitates novel findings, and is, based on the capture-based design, easy to update once new guidelines become available. The GMS-MGP provides an important step toward nationally harmonized precision diagnostics of myeloid malignancies.

Risk of infections in multiple myeloma. A population-based study on 8672 multiple myeloma patients diagnosed 2008-2021 from the Swedish Myeloma Registry.

In multiple myeloma (MM), advancements in treatments and toxicity management have enhanced survival rates. This, coupled with shifting age demographics in MM, necessitates an updated understanding of infection risks in MM patients compared to the general population. Using Swedish population-based registries, we investigated the incidence of infections in 8,672 Swedish symptomatic MM patients diagnosed 2008-2021 and 34,561 matched controls. Overall, MM patients had a 5-fold risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.30; 95%, Confidence Interval = CI 5.14-5.47) of developing any clinically significant infection compared to matched controls. Bacterial infections represented a 5-fold (HR 4.88; CI 4.70-5.07) increased risk, viral and fungal infections 7-fold compared to controls. The 1st year after MM diagnosis the risk of infections compared to controls was 7 -fold (HR 6.95; CI 6.61-7.30) and remained elevated up to 5 years after the myeloma diagnosis. The risk of infection compared to controls remained 5-fold in MM patients with follow-up till 2022. Preceding MM diagnosis, the risk compared to matched controls was significantly increased up to four years before MM diagnosis (HR1.16; CI 1.05-1.28). Among MM patients, 8% had died within 2 months of diagnosis and infection contributed to 32% of all deaths. After 1 year, 20% MM patients had died, and infection-related mortality was 27%. Our data constitute the largest population-based study to date on the risk of infections compared to the normal population in the era of modern MM therapies and confirms that infections still represent a major threat to patients and underscores importance of preventive strategies.

Cytarabine dose intensification improves survival in older patients with secondary/high-risk acute myeloid leukemia in matched real-world versus clinical trial data.

Since 1980's, the established/standard treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is cytarabine infusion with anthracycline (7 + 3 regimen). We compared the 7 + 3 regimen in older secondary/high-risk AML patients from a clinical trial with a matched population from the Swedish AML Registry treated with an increased cytarabine dose in induction and consolidation as recommended in the Swedish National Guidelines since 2005. After successful propensity score matching, 104 patients per group were included. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and standard dosed patients had a median OS of 6.4 versus 10.7 months with increased dose intensity (hazard ratio: 0.69, p = 0.012), with 5-year OS of 8.7% and 18.1%, and remission rates of 36% and 60%, respectively (p < 0.001). Median OS after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (in 27.9% per group) was 10.4 and 20.7 months, respectively. We conclude that the more intensive cytarabine schedule seems to provide improved outcomes inthe investigated AML patient group.

Respiratory syncytial virus and other vaccine-preventable infections in Multiple Myeloma. A population-based study on 8672 myeloma patients diagnosed 2008-2021 from the Swedish Myeloma Registry.

Not available.

First-line venetoclax combinations versus chemoimmunotherapy in fit patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (GAIA/CLL13): 4-year follow-up from a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In the primary analysis report of the GAIA/CLL13 trial, we found that venetoclax-obinutuzumab and venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib improved undetectable measurable residual disease (MRD) rates and progression-free survival compared with chemoimmunotherapy in patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. However, to our knowledge, no data on direct comparisons of different venetoclax-based combinations are available. METHODS: GAIA/CLL13 is an open-label, randomised, phase 3 study conducted at 159 sites in ten countries in Europe and the Middle East. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, with a life expectancy of at least 6 months, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology group performance status of 0-2, a cumulative illness rating scale score of 6 or lower or a single score of 4 or lower, and no TP53 aberrations. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1), with a computer-generated list stratified by age, Binet stage, and regional study group, to either chemoimmunotherapy, venetoclax-rituximab, venetoclax-obinutuzumab, or venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib. All treatments were administered in 28-day cycles. Patients in the chemoimmunotherapy group received six cycles of treatment, with patients older than 65 years receiving intravenous bendamustine (90 mg/m2, days 1-2), whereas patients aged 65 years or younger received intravenous fludarabine (25 mg/m2, days 1-3) and intravenous cyclophosphamide (250 mg/m2, days 1-3). Intravenous rituximab (375 mg/m2, day 1 of cycle 1; 500 mg/m2, day 1 of cycles 2-6) was added to chemotherapy. In the experimental groups, patients received daily venetoclax (400 mg orally) for ten cycles after a 5-week ramp-up phase starting on day 22 of cycle 1. In the venetoclax-rituximab group, intravenous rituximab (375 mg/m2, day 1 of cycle 1; 500 mg/m2, day 1 of cycles 2-6) was added. In the obinutuzumab-containing groups, obinutuzumab was added (cycle 1: 100 mg on day 1, 900 mg on day 2, and 1000 mg on days 8 and 15; cycles 2-6: 1000 mg on day 1). In the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group, daily ibrutinib (420 mg orally, from day 1 of cycle 1) was added until undetectable MRD was reached in two consecutive measurements (3 months apart) or until cycle 36. The planned treatment duration was six cycles in the chemoimmunotherapy group, 12 cycles in the venetoclax-rituximab and the venetoclax-obinutuzumab group and between 12 and 36 cycles in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group. Coprimary endpoints were the undetectable MRD rate in peripheral blood at month 15 for the comparison of venetoclax-obinutuzumab versus standard chemoimmunotherapy and investigator-assessed progression-free survival for the comparison of venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib versus standard chemoimmunotherapy, both analysed in the intention-to-treat population (ie, all patients randomly assigned to treatment) with a split α of 0·025 for each coprimary endpoint. Both coprimary endpoints have been reported elsewhere. Here we report a post-hoc exploratory analysis of updated progression-free survival results after a 4-year follow-up of our study population. Safety analyses included all patients who received at least one dose of study treatment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02950051, recruitment is complete, and all patients are off study treatment. FINDINGS: Between Dec 13, 2016, and Oct 13, 2019, 1080 patients were screened and 926 were randomly assigned to treatment (chemoimmunotherapy group n=229; venetoclax-rituximab group n=237; venetoclax-obinutuzumab group n=229; and venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group n=231); mean age 60·8 years (SD 10·2), 259 (28%) of 926 patients were female, and 667 (72%) were male (data on race and ethnicity are not reported). At data cutoff for this exploratory follow-up analysis (Jan 31, 2023; median follow-up 50·7 months [IQR 44·6-57·9]), patients in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab group had significantly longer progression-free survival than those in the chemoimmunotherapy group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·47 [97·5% CI 0·32-0·69], p<0·0001) and the venetoclax-rituximab group (0·57 [0·38-0·84], p=0·0011). The venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group also had a significantly longer progression-free survival than the chemoimmunotherapy group (0·30 [0·19-0·47]; p<0·0001) and the venetoclax-rituximab group (0·38 [0·24-0·59]; p<0·0001). There was no difference in progression-free survival between the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib and venetoclax-obinutuzumab groups (0·63 [0·39-1·02]; p=0·031), and the proportional hazards assumption was not met for the comparison between the venetoclax-rituximab group versus the chemoimmunotherapy group (log-rank p=0·10). The estimated 4-year progression-free survival rate was 85·5% (97·5% CI 79·9-91·1; 37 [16%] events) in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group, 81·8% (75·8-87·8; 55 [24%] events) in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab group, 70·1% (63·0-77·3; 84 [35%] events) in the venetoclax-rituximab group, and 62·0% (54·4-69·7; 90 [39%] events) in the chemoimmunotherapy group. The most common grade 3 or worse treatment-related adverse event was neutropenia (114 [53%] of 216 patients in the chemoimmunotherapy group, 109 [46%] of 237 in the venetoclax-rituximab group, 127 [56%] of 228 in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab group, and 112 [48%] of 231 in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group). Deaths determined to be associated with study treatment by the investigator occurred in three (1%) patients in the chemoimmunotherapy group (n=1 due to each of sepsis, metastatic squamous cell carcinoma, and Richter's syndrome), none in the venetoclax-rituximab and venetoclax-obinutuzumab groups, and four (2%) in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group (n=1 due to each of acute myeloid leukaemia, fungal encephalitis, small-cell lung cancer, and toxic leukoencephalopathy). INTERPRETATION: With more than 4 years of follow-up, venetoclax-obinutuzumab and venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib significantly extended progression-free survival compared with both chemoimmunotherapy and venetoclax-rituximab in previously untreated, fit patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, thereby supporting their use and further evaluation in this patient group, while still considering the higher toxicities observed with the triple combination. FUNDING: AbbVie, Janssen, and F Hoffmann-La Roche.

First-Line Venetoclax Combinations in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials of venetoclax plus anti-CD20 antibodies as first-line treatment in fit patients (i.e., those with a low burden of coexisting conditions) with advanced chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have been lacking. METHODS: In a phase 3, open-label trial, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1:1:1 ratio, fit patients with CLL who did not have TP53 aberrations to receive six cycles of chemoimmunotherapy (fludarabine-cyclophosphamide-rituximab or bendamustine-rituximab) or 12 cycles of venetoclax-rituximab, venetoclax-obinutuzumab, or venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib. Ibrutinib was discontinued after two consecutive measurements of undetectable minimal residual disease or could be extended. The primary end points were undetectable minimal residual disease (sensitivity, <10-4 [i.e., <1 CLL cell in 10,000 leukocytes]) as assessed by flow cytometry in peripheral blood at month 15 and progression-free survival. RESULTS: A total of 926 patients were assigned to one of the four treatment regimens (229 to chemoimmunotherapy, 237 to venetoclax-rituximab, 229 to venetoclax-obinutuzumab, and 231 to venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib). At month 15, the percentage of patients with undetectable minimal residual disease was significantly higher in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab group (86.5%; 97.5% confidence interval [CI], 80.6 to 91.1) and the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group (92.2%; 97.5% CI, 87.3 to 95.7) than in the chemoimmunotherapy group (52.0%; 97.5% CI, 44.4 to 59.5; P<0.001 for both comparisons), but it was not significantly higher in the venetoclax-rituximab group (57.0%; 97.5% CI, 49.5 to 64.2; P = 0.32). Three-year progression-free survival was 90.5% in the venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib group and 75.5% in the chemoimmunotherapy group (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.32; 97.5% CI, 0.19 to 0.54; P<0.001). Progression-free survival at 3 years was also higher with venetoclax-obinutuzumab (87.7%; hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.42; 97.5% CI, 0.26 to 0.68; P<0.001), but not with venetoclax-rituximab (80.8%; hazard ratio, 0.79; 97.5% CI, 0.53 to 1.18; P = 0.18). Grade 3 and grade 4 infections were more common with chemoimmunotherapy (18.5%) and venetoclax-obinutuzumab-ibrutinib (21.2%) than with venetoclax-rituximab (10.5%) or venetoclax-obinutuzumab (13.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Venetoclax-obinutuzumab with or without ibrutinib was superior to chemoimmunotherapy as first-line treatment in fit patients with CLL. (Funded by AbbVie and others; GAIA-CLL13 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02950051; EudraCT number, 2015-004936-36.).

High karyotypic complexity is an independent prognostic factor in patients with CLL treated with venetoclax combinations.

Complex karyotypes have been associated with inferior outcomes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) treated with chemoimmunotherapy (CIT), whereas their prognostic impact in the context of venetoclax-based treatments is still debated. In this prospective analysis on karyotype complexity in CLL, we evaluated the impact of complex (≥3 chromosomal aberrations [CAs], CKTs) and highly complex karyotypes (≥5 CAs; hCKTs) as well as specific aberrations in previously untreated patients without TP53 aberrations undergoing either CIT or time-limited venetoclax-based therapies in the phase 3 GAIA/CLL13 trial. Karyotype analyses were available for 895 of 926 patients (96.7%), of whom 153 (17%) had a CKT and 43 (5%) hCKT. In the CIT arm, CKT was associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.58; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.54-4.32; P < .001) and overall survival (HR, 3.25; 95% CI, 1.03-10.26; P = .044). In the pooled venetoclax arms, a multivariable analysis identified hCKTs (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.03-3.72; P = .041), but not CKTs, as independent adverse prognosticators for PFS. The presence of translocations (unbalanced and/or balanced) was also independently associated with shorter PFSs in the venetoclax arms. CIT led to the acquisition of additional CAs (mean CAs, 2.0-3.4; from baseline to CLL progression), whereas karyotype complexity remained stable after venetoclax-based treatments (2.0, both time points). This analysis establishes highly complex karyotypes and translocations as adverse prognostic factors in the context of venetoclax-based combination treatments. The findings of this study support the incorporation of karyotyping into the standard diagnostic workup of CLL, because it identifies patients at high risk of poor treatment outcomes and thereby improves prognostication. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02950051.

The complement receptor C3AR constitutes a novel therapeutic target in NPM1-mutated AML.

Mutated nucleophosmin 1 (NPM1) is the most common genetic alteration in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), found in ∼30% of cases. Although mutations in this gene are considered favorable according to current risk stratification guidelines, a large fraction of patients will experience relapse, demonstrating the urgent need for new treatment options. Therefore, we aimed to identify cell surface proteins specifically expressed on NPM1-mutated AML cells, allowing for potential targeting with antibody-based therapies. Herein, we report on an arrayed flow cytometry-based screen directed to 362 cell surface markers. In comparing the cell surface expression on NPM1-mutated AML cells with primitive (CD34+ CD38-) normal bone marrow cells, we identified the complement receptor C3AR as being specifically expressed in NPM1-mutated AML. By flow cytometry and single-cell RNA sequencing, we further show that normal hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells lack detectable C3AR gene and protein expression, making it particularly suitable as a target for antibody therapy. We also demonstrate that C3AR in combination with GPR56 distinguishes the leukemic stem cells (LSCs) in NPM1-mutated AML from the normal hematopoietic stem cells, defining the LSC population, as shown by transplantation into immunodeficient mice. Mechanistically, the stimulation of C3AR-expressing cells with C3a, the ligand of C3AR, leads to the activation of ERK1/2 and increased survival of AML cells, suggesting that this is an important signaling axis in this subtype of AML. Finally, we show that antibodies directed against C3AR efficiently elicit natural killer cell-mediated killing of primary AML cells ex vivo, highlighting C3AR as a candidate therapeutic target in NPM1-mutated AML.

Characterization of therapy-related acute myeloid leukemia: increasing incidence and prognostic implications.

Studies of therapy-related AML (t-AML) are usually performed in selected cohorts and reliable incidence rates are lacking. In this study, we characterized, defined the incidence over time and studied prognostic implications in all t-AML patients diagnosed in Sweden between 1997 and 2015. Data were retrieved from nationwide population-based registries. In total, 6,779 AML patients were included in the study, of whom 686 (10%) had t-AML. The median age for t-AML was 71 years and 392 (57%) patients were females. During the study period, the incidence of t-AML almost doubled with a yearly increase in t-AML of 4.5% (95% confidence interval: 2.8%-6.2%), which contributed significantly to the general increase in AML incidence over the study period. t-AML solidly constituted over 10% of all AML cases during the later period of the study. Primary diagnoses with the largest increase in incidence and decrease in mortality rate during the study period (i.e., breast and prostate cancer) contributed significantly to the increased incidence of t-AML. In multivariable analysis, t-AML was associated with poorer outcome in cytogenetically intermediate- and adverse-risk cases but t-AML had no significant impact on outcome in favorable-risk AML, including core binding leukemias, acute promyelocytic leukemia and AML with mutated NPM1 without FLT3-ITD. We conclude that there is a strong increase in incidence in t-AML over time and that t-AML constitutes a successively larger proportion of the AML cases. Furthermore, we conclude that t-AML confers a poor prognosis in cytogenetically intermediate- and adverse-risk, but not in favorable-risk AML.

Consensus opinion from an international group of experts on measurable residual disease in hairy cell leukemia.

A significant body of literature has been generated related to the detection of measurable residual disease (MRD) at the time of achieving complete remission (CR) in patients with hairy cell leukemia (HCL). However, due to the indolent nature of the disease as well as reports suggesting long-term survival in patients treated with a single course of a nucleoside analog albeit without evidence of cure, the merits of detection of MRD and attempts to eradicate it have been debated. Studies utilizing novel strategies in the relapse setting have demonstrated the utility of achieving CR with undetectable MRD (uMRD) in prolonging the duration of remission. Several assays including immunohistochemical analysis of bone marrow specimens, multi-parameter flow cytometry and molecular assays to detect the mutant BRAF V600E gene or the consensus primer for the immunoglobulin heavy chain gene (IGH) rearrangement have been utilized with few comparative studies. Here we provide a consensus report on the available data, the potential merits of MRD assessment in the front-line and relapse settings and recommendations on future role of MRD assessment in HCL.

Concordance in measurable residual disease result after first and second induction cycle in acute myeloid leukemia: An outcome- and cost-analysis.

Measurable residual disease (MRD) measured using multiparameter flow-cytometry (MFC) has proven to be an important prognostic biomarker in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In addition, MRD is increasingly used to guide consolidation treatment towards a non-allogenic stem cell transplantation treatment for MRD-negative patients in the ELN-2017 intermediate risk group. Currently, measurement of MFC-MRD in bone marrow is used for clinical decision making after 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy. However, measurement after 1 cycle has also been shown to have prognostic value, so the optimal time point remains a question of debate. We assessed the independent prognostic value of MRD results at either time point and concordance between these for 273 AML patients treated within and according to the HOVON-SAKK 92, 102, 103 and 132 trials. Cumulative incidence of relapse, event free survival and overall survival were significantly better for MRD-negative (<0.1%) patients compared to MRD-positive patients after cycle 1 and cycle 2 (p ≤ 0.002, for all comparisons). A total of 196 patients (71.8%) were MRD-negative after cycle 1, of which the vast majority remained negative after cycle 2 (180 patients; 91.8%). In contrast, of the 77 MRD-positive patients after cycle 1, only 41 patients (53.2%) remained positive. A cost reduction of -€571,751 per 100 patients could be achieved by initiating the donor search based on the MRD-result after cycle 1. This equals to a 50.7% cost reduction compared to the current care strategy in which the donor search is initiated for all patients. These results show that MRD after cycle 1 has prognostic value and is highly concordant with MRD status after cycle 2. When MRD-MFC is used to guide consolidation treatment (allo vs non-allo) in intermediate risk patients, allogeneic donor search may be postponed or omitted after cycle 1. Since the majority of MRD-negative patients remain negative after cycle 2, this could safely reduce the number of allogeneic donor searches and reduce costs.

Targeting SAMHD1 with hydroxyurea in first-line cytarabine-based therapy of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukaemia: Results from the HEAT-AML trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is based on combination chemotherapy with cytarabine (ara-C) and anthracyclines. Five-year overall survival is below 30%, which has partly been attributed to cytarabine resistance. Preclinical data suggest that the addition of hydroxyurea potentiates cytarabine efficacy by increasing ara-C triphosphate (ara-CTP) levels through targeted inhibition of SAMHD1. OBJECTIVES: In this phase 1 trial, we evaluated the feasibility, safety and efficacy of the addition of hydroxyurea to standard chemotherapy with cytarabine/daunorubicin in newly diagnosed AML patients. METHODS: Nine patients were enrolled and received at least two courses of ara-C (1 g/m2 /2 h b.i.d. d1-5, i.e., a total of 10 g/m2 per course), hydroxyurea (1-2 g d1-5) and daunorubicin (60 mg/m2 d1-3). The primary endpoint was safety; secondary endpoints were complete remission rate and measurable residual disease (MRD). Additionally, pharmacokinetic studies of ara-CTP and ex vivo drug sensitivity assays were performed. RESULTS: The most common grade 3-4 toxicity was febrile neutropenia (100%). No unexpected toxicities were observed. Pharmacokinetic analyses showed a significant increase in median ara-CTP levels (1.5-fold; p = 0.04) in patients receiving doses of 1 g hydroxyurea. Ex vivo, diagnostic leukaemic bone marrow blasts from study patients were significantly sensitised to ara-C by a median factor of 2.1 (p = 0.0047). All nine patients (100%) achieved complete remission, and all eight (100%) with validated MRD measurements (flow cytometry or real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction [RT-qPCR]) had an MRD level <0.1% after two cycles of chemotherapy. Treatment was well-tolerated, and median time to neutrophil recovery >1.0 × 109 /L and to platelet recovery >50 × 109 /L after the start of cycle 1 was 19 days and 22 days, respectively. Six of nine patients underwent allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). With a median follow-up of 18.0 (range 14.9-20.5) months, one patient with adverse risk not fit for HSCT experienced a relapse after 11.9 months but is now in second complete remission. CONCLUSION: Targeted inhibition of SAMHD1 by the addition of hydroxyurea to conventional AML therapy is safe and appears efficacious within the limitations of the small phase 1 patient cohort. These results need to be corroborated in a larger study.

Regional differences in treatment and outcome for myeloma patients in Sweden: A population based Swedish myeloma register study.

BACKGROUND: We wanted to evaluate if health care for multiple myeloma (MM) patients is equal in different regions of Sweden. AIM: To study differences in survival for MM depending on health care region and early use of modern treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Swedish Myeloma Register from patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2017 was used. Cohorts were defined by the six healthcare regions (labeled A-F) in Sweden and modern initial treatment was defined as including certain drug combinations. To adjust for time to treatment bias, survival analyses were performed also for patients alive 6 months after diagnosis. In all treated MM patients (n = 5326), we observed a superior overall survival (OS) for region A compared to all other regions (p < .01 for all respectively). After adjusting for time to treatment there was also a superior survival in the region with highest use of modern initial treatment (region A) compared to the regions defined in the study as having intermediate and low use (p < .01 for both). In patients receiving autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) a superior survival was observed for region A compared to all regions besides region B. Similar results were seen when adjusting for a time to treatment bias. In patients not receiving ASCT, 75 years or older and adjusted for time to treatment bias, a difference was noted only between region A and E (log rank p = .04, HR 1.2, CI 1.00-1.44, p = .06). In multivariate analyses including age, international staging system stage and time period of diagnosis, differences in survival remained for patients receiving ASCT between region A versus C, D, E and F (p = .01, p < .01, p < .01, p = .03). CONCLUSION: We observed a superior survival in region A for patients receiving ASCT. Explanations may be higher usage of modern initial treatment or regional residual confounding. For patients not receiving ASCT, 75 years or older, differences in survival could be adjusted for.

A risk score based on real-world data to predict early death in acute promyelocytic leukemia.

With increasingly effective treatments, early death (ED) has become the predominant reason for therapeutic failure in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). To better prevent ED, patients with high-risk of ED must be identified. Our aim was to develop a score that predicts the risk of ED in a real-life setting. We used APL patients in the populationbased Swedish AML Registry (n=301) and a Portuguese hospital-based registry (n=129) as training and validation cohorts, respectively. The cohorts were comparable with respect to age (median, 54 and 53 years) and ED rate (19.6% and 18.6%). The score was developed by logistic regression analyses, risk-per-quantile assessment and scoring based on ridge regression coefficients from multivariable penalized logistic regression analysis. White blood cell count, platelet count and age were selected by this approach as the most significant variables for predicting ED. The score identified low-, high- and very high-risk patients with ED risks of 4.8%, 20.2% and 50.9% respectively in the training cohort and with 6.7%, 25.0% and 36.0% as corresponding values for the validation cohort. The score identified an increased risk of ED already at sub-normal and normal white blood cell counts and, consequently, it was better at predicting ED risk than the Sanz score (AUROC 0.77 vs. 0.64). In summary, we here present an externally validated and population-based risk score to predict ED risk in a real-world setting, identifying patients with the most urgent need of aggressive ED prevention. The results also suggest that increased vigilance for ED is already necessary at sub-normal/normal white blood cell counts.