Farmland practices are driving bird population decline across Europe.

Declines in European bird populations are reported for decades but the direct effect of major anthropogenic pressures on such declines remains unquantified. Causal relationships between pressures and bird population responses are difficult to identify as pressures interact at different spatial scales and responses vary among species. Here, we uncover direct relationships between population time-series of 170 common bird species, monitored at more than 20,000 sites in 28 European countries, over 37 y, and four widespread anthropogenic pressures: agricultural intensification, change in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature change over the last decades. We quantify the influence of each pressure on population time-series and its importance relative to other pressures, and we identify traits of most affected species. We find that agricultural intensification, in particular pesticides and fertiliser use, is the main pressure for most bird population declines, especially for invertebrate feeders. Responses to changes in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature are more species-specific. Specifically, forest cover is associated with a positive effect and growing urbanisation with a negative effect on population dynamics, while temperature change has an effect on the dynamics of a large number of bird populations, the magnitude and direction of which depend on species' thermal preferences. Our results not only confirm the pervasive and strong effects of anthropogenic pressures on common breeding birds, but quantify the relative strength of these effects stressing the urgent need for transformative changes in the way of inhabiting the world in European countries, if bird populations shall have a chance of recovering.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains.

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Short-lived species move uphill faster under climate change.

Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds' abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species' traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species' longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

LOUPING-ILL VIRUS SEROSURVEY OF WILLOW PTARMIGAN (LAGOPUS LAGOPUS LAGOPUS) IN NORWAY.

In Norway, the Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus lagopus) is experiencing population declines and is nationally Red Listed as Near Threatened. Although disease has not generally been regarded as an important factor behind population fluctuations for Willow Ptarmigan in Norway, disease occurrence has been poorly investigated. Both louping-ill virus (LIV) and the closely related tick-borne encephalitis virus are found along the southern part of the Norwegian coast. We assessed whether and where Norwegian Willow Ptarmigan populations have been infected with LIV. We expected to find infected individuals in populations in the southernmost part of the country. We did not expect to find infected individuals in populations further north and at higher altitudes because of the absence of the main vector, the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus). We collected serum samples on Nobuto filter paper and used a hemagglutination inhibition assay for antibodies against LIV. We collected data at both local and country-wide levels. For local sampling, we collected and analyzed 87 hunter-collected samples from one of the southernmost Willow Ptarmigan populations in Norway. Of these birds, only three positives (3.4%) were found. For the country-wide sampling, we collected serum samples from 163 Willow Ptarmigan carcasses submitted from selected locations all over the country. Of these birds, 32% (53) were seropositive for LIV or a cross-reacting virus. Surprisingly, we found seropositive individuals from locations across the whole country, including outside the known distribution of the sheep tick. These results suggest that either LIV or a cross-reacting virus infects ptarmigan in large parts of Norway, including at high altitudes and latitudes.

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

Declining population trends of European mountain birds.

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species' distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south-western (Iberia) and south-central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (-7%) during 2002-2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant -10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Blood transcriptomes and de novo identification of candidate loci for mating success in lekking great snipe (Gallinago media).

We assembled the great snipe blood transcriptome using data from fourteen lekking males, in order to de novo identify candidate genes related to sexual selection, and determined the expression profiles in relation to mating success. The three most highly transcribed genes were encoding different haemoglobin subunits. All tended to be overexpressed in males with high mating success. We also called single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the transcriptome data and found considerable genetic variation for many genes expressed during lekking. Among these, we identified 14 polymorphic candidate SNPs that had a significant genotypic association with mating success (number of females mated with) and/or mating status (mated or not). Four of the candidate SNPs were found in HBAA (encoding the haemoglobin α-chain). Heterozygotes for one of these and one SNP in the gene PABPC1 appeared to enjoy higher mating success compared to males homozygous for either of the alleles. In a larger data set of individuals, we genotyped 38 of the identified SNPs but found low support for consistent selection as only one of the zygosities of previously identified candidate SNPs and none of their genotypes were associated with mating status. However, candidate SNPs generally showed lower levels of spatial genetic structure compared to noncandidate markers. We also scored the prevalence of avian malaria in a subsample of birds. Males infected with avian malaria parasites had lower mating success in the year of sampling than noninfected males. Parasite infection and its interaction with specific genes may thus affect performance on the lek.

Polonium-210 and Caesium-137 in lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo) and wolves (Canis lupus).

Wolves, lynx and wolverines are on the top of the food-chain in northern Scandinavia and Finland. (210)Po and (137)Cs have been analysed in samples of liver, kidney and muscle from 28 wolves from Sweden. In addition blood samples were taken from 27 wolves. In 9 of the wolves, samples of muscle, liver and blood were analysed for (210)Po. Samples of liver and muscle were collected from 16 lynx and 16 wolverines from Norway. The liver samples were analysed for (210)Po and (137)Cs. Only (137)Cs analyses were carried out for the muscle samples. The wolves were collected during the winter 2010 and 2011, while the samples for lynx and wolverines were all from 2011. The activity concentrations of (210)Po in wolves were higher for liver (range 20-523 Bq kg(-1) d.w.) and kidney (range 24-942 Bq kg(-1) d.w.) than muscle (range 1-43 Bq kg(-1) d.w.) and blood (range 2-54 Bq kg(-1) d.w.). Activity ratios, (210)Po/(210)Pb, in wolf samples of muscle, liver and blood were in the ranges 2-77, 9-56 and 2-54. Using a wet weight ratio of 3.8 the maximal absorbed dose from (210)Po to wolf liver was estimated to 3500 µGy per year. Compared to wolf, the ranges of (210)Po in liver samples were lower in lynx (range 22-211 Bq kg(-1) d.w.) and wolverine (range16-160 Bq kg(-1) d.w.). Concentration of (137)Cs in wolf samples of muscle, liver, kidney and blood were in the ranges 70-8410 Bq kg(-1) d.w., 36-4050 Bq kg(-1) d.w., 31-3453 Bq kg(-1) d.w. and 4-959 Bq kg(-1) d.w., respectively. (137)Cs in lynx muscle and liver samples were in the ranges 44-13393 Bq kg(-1) d.w. and 125-10260 Bq kg(-1) d.w. The corresponding values for (137)Cs in wolverine were 22-3405 Bq kg(-1) d.w. for liver and 53-4780 Bq kg(-1) d.w. for muscle. The maximal absorbed dose from (137)Cs to lynx was estimated to 3000 µGy per year.

Balancing selection, sexual selection and geographic structure in MHC genes of Great Snipe.

Signatures of balancing selection are often found when investigating the extremely polymorphic regions of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes, and it is generally accepted that selective forces maintain this polymorphism. However, the exact nature of the selection is controversial. Theoretical studies have mainly focused on overdominance and/or frequency dependent selection while laboratory studies have emphasised the role of mate choice. Empirical field data, on the other hand, have been relatively scarce. Previously we have found that geographic structure in MHC class II genes of the Great Snipe (Gallinago media) is too pronounced to be explained by neutral forces alone. Here we test the hypothesis that sexual selection on MHC alleles may be influencing this geographic structure between mountain and lowland populations. We found evidence of balancing selection acting on MHC genes in the form of a higher rate of amino-acid changing substitutions compared to silent substitutions in the peptide binding regions. Not only natural selection but also sexual selection may influence MHC polymorphism in this bird because certain MHC alleles have been found to be associated with higher male mating success. Contrary to predictions from negative frequency dependent selection, males carrying locally rare alleles did not have a mating advantage. Instead, the mating success of alleles in a mountain population was positively correlated to their relative frequency in the mountains compared to the lowlands, implying that locally adapted MHC alleles may also be favoured by sexual selection.

Monitoring of raptors and their contamination levels in Norway.

This article summarizes results from raptor monitoring and contamination studies in Norway of the golden eagle, gyrfalcon, white-tailed sea eagle, osprey, peregrine, and merlin. Golden eagle and gyrfalcon populations have been monitored since 1990 as part of the "Monitoring Programme for Terrestrial Ecosystems" (TOV). No long-term trend in the population size or productivity of golden eagle has been shown in any of the 5 study areas. The reproductive output of gyrfalcon is monitored in 3 areas. It is positively correlated with the populations of its main prey species, the rock ptarmigan and the willow ptarmigan. The white-tailed sea eagle population has been monitored since 1974 by the Norwegian Ornithological Society, and the population is increasing. The levels of pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls are low in the eggs of both the golden eagle and the gyrfalcon, but elevated levels and effects on reproduction have been indicated for a coastal subpopulation of golden eagle. The pollutant levels in white-tailed sea eagle are lower than in the Baltic population of sea eagles, and shell thinning was never severe overall, but individual eggs have contained pollutant concentrations above critical levels. The levels of pollutants in the bird-eating falcons, peregrine, and merlin were higher than in other species. New emerging pollutants, like brominated diphenylethers and perfluorinated organic compounds, could be detected in all species. By incorporating available published and unpublished data, we were able to produce time trends for pollutants and shell thickness over 4 decades.

Spatial patterns of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in mosses, herbivores and a carnivore from the Norwegian terrestrial biota.

The widespread occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the environment has attracted considerable attention, leading to concerns about the extent and magnitude of wildlife and human exposure. In this work, we focus on the occurrence and fate of PBDEs in a Norwegian air-plant-herbivore-carnivore system. Specifically, we have analysed for PBDEs in moss, livers from various terrestrial herbivores (moose, grouse, and European roe deer) and, for the first time, livers from the top predator lynx. The samples were collected from different sites and time periods (1990-2004) to identify possible spatial and temporal trends in contaminant levels and patterns. The general finding was that PBDEs were found in all (biotic) samples, although at lower concentrations than previously observed in mammals from the marine environment. The PBDE levels in the herbivores ranged from less than 0.5 ng/g lipid weight to 9.4 ng/g lipid weight as the highest. The median PBDE concentration in lynx was approximately one order of magnitude higher than in the herbivores. In the lynx samples there was a predominance of BDE-153 whereas BDE-47 and 99 dominated in the herbivores. This probably reflects different bioaccumulation properties or metabolic transformation processes of the BDE-congeners, and food choice. Levels of PBDEs in both moss and herbivores showed a general decline towards the northern parts of Norway. No clear temporal trends were observed. The PBDE levels observed in this study were low and are probably of limited toxicological significance.

Population fluctuations and regulation in great snipe: a time-series analysis.

1. During the last centuries, the breeding range of the great snipe Gallinago media has declined dramatically in the western part of its distribution. To examine present population dynamics in the Scandinavian mountains, we collected and analysed a 19-year time series of counts of great snipe males at leks in central Norway, 1987-2005. 2. The population showed large annual fluctuations in the number of males displaying at lek sites (range 45-90 males at the peak of the mating season), but no overall trend. 3. We detected presence of direct density-dependent mechanisms regulating this population. Inclusion of the density-dependent term in a Ricker-type model significantly improved the fit with observed data (evaluated with Parametric Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio tests and Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size). 4. An analysis of (a number of a priori likely) environmental covariates suggests that the population dynamics were affected by conditions influencing reproduction and survival of offspring during the summer, but not by conditions influencing survival at the wintering grounds in Africa. This is in contrast to many altricial birds breeding in the northern hemisphere, and supports the idea that population dynamics of migratory nidifugous birds are more influenced by conditions during reproduction. 5. Inclusion of these external factors into our model improved the detectability of density dependence. This illustrates that allowing for external effects may increase statistical power of density dependence tests and thus be of particular importance in relatively short time series. 6. In our best model of the population dynamics, two likely density-independent offspring survival covariates explained 47.3% of the variance in great snipe numbers (predation pressure estimated by willow grouse reproductive success and food availability estimated by the amount of precipitation in June), whereas density dependence explained 35.5%. Demographic stochasticity and unidentified environmental stochasticity may account for the remaining 17.2%.

Territory occupancy rate of goshawk and gyrfalcon: no evidence of delayed numerical response to grouse numbers.

Two recent studies on territory occupancy rates of goshawk Accipiter gentilis and gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus report a 2-3-year-delayed numerical response to grouse numbers, which is a requirement for a hypothesis of predator-generated grouse cycles. The time lags were assumed to reflect the average age of sexual maturity in the raptor species. In southern Norway, however, subadult (two-year-old) goshawk hens occupied only 18-25% of territories where occupancy was not recorded in the preceding year, and there was no significant relationship between the proportion of subadults among recruits and grouse indices two years earlier. We argue that territory occupancy rates are not appropriate indices of total raptor population levels, but rather reflect the proportion of territorial pairs that attempt to nest. Because this depends on the body condition of the hens, fluctuations in other important winter resident prey species (most important for the goshawk) and winter weather (most important for the gyrfalcon) should also be addressed. During 1988-2006, the annual proportion of goshawk territories with recorded nesting attempts in southern Norway was most closely related to the preceding autumn's population indices of black grouse Tetrao tetrix and mountain hare Lepus timidus, whereas the annual proportion of gyrfalcon territories with observations of falcons or with confirmed breeding attempts in central Norway were best explained by population indices of willow grouse Lagopus lagopus and ptarmigan L. mutus from the previous autumn, and by December temperatures. Hence, our studies do not support the predation hypothesis for grouse cycles.

Spatial pattern of MHC class II variation in the great snipe (Gallinago media).

The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) code for proteins involved in antigen recognition and triggering of the adaptive immune response, and are therefore likely to be under selection from parasites. These selection regimes may vary in space and time. Here we report a strong geographical structure in MHC class II B genes of a migrating bird, the great snipe (Gallinago media). Genetic differentiation in the MHC between two ecologically distinct distributional regions (Scandinavian mountain populations vs. East European lowland populations) was still present after statistically controlling for the effect of selectively neutral variation (microsatellites) using partial Mantel tests. This suggests a role for selection in generating this spatial structure and that it represents local adaptation to different environments. Differentiation between populations within the two regions was negligible. Overall, we found a high number of MHC alleles (50, from 175 individuals). This, together with a tendency for a higher rate of nonsynonymous than synonymous substitutions in the peptide binding sites, and high Tajima's D in certain regions of the gene, suggests a history of balancing selection. MHC variation is often thought to be maintained by some form of balancing selection, but the nature of this selection remains unclear. Our results support the hypothesis that spatial variation in selection regimes contributes to the high polymorphism.

Direct and indirect mate choice on leks.

Indirect mate choice is any behavior that restricts the individual's set of potential mates without discrimination of mate attributes directly, for example, by having preferences about where to mate. We analyzed a 14-year data set from great snipe (Gallinago media) leks for evidence of indirect mate choice based on relative and absolute position of lek territories. We found little or no effect of the centrality of territories on mating and no between-year consistency in the spatial distribution of matings within leks. Instead, the probability of matings occurring at a particular site increased if the current territory owner had mated the previous year. Furthermore, individual females returned in later seasons to mate with the same male as previously rather than at the same site. Previous work found that male interactions and dominance do not control matings and that females are very choosy about which territory they mate in. Here we show that this is because of the male occupying the territory rather than its position. We therefore conclude that direct female mate choice is the main behavioral process affecting variation in mating success among great snipe males, unlike in some lekking mammals where male competition and/or indirect mate choice appears more important.