Protection of the third-dose and fourth-dose mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has raised concerns regarding waning vaccine-induced immunity and durability. We evaluated protection of the third-dose and fourth-dose mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant and its sublineages. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and other resources (PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, CINAHL PLUS, APA PsycINFO, Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, MedRxiv and bioRxiv) were searched until December 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included studies that assessed the effectiveness of mRNA vaccine booster doses against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes caused by the subvariant. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) at different time points after the third-dose and fourth-dose vaccination were extracted. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to compare VE of the third dose versus the primary series, no vaccination and the fourth dose at different time points. The certainty of the evidence was assessed by Grading of Recommendations, Assessments, Development and Evaluation approach. RESULTS: This review included 50 studies. The third-dose VE, compared with the primary series, against SARS-CoV-2 infection was 48.86% (95% CI 44.90% to 52.82%, low certainty) at ≥14 days, and gradually decreased to 38.01% (95% CI 13.90% to 62.13%, very low certainty) at ≥90 days after the third-dose vaccination. The fourth-dose VE peaked at 14-30 days (56.70% (95% CI 50.36% to 63.04%), moderate certainty), then quickly declined at 61-90 days (22% (95% CI 6.40% to 37.60%), low certainty). Compared with no vaccination, the third-dose VE was 75.84% (95% CI 40.56% to 111.12%, low certainty) against BA.1 infection, and 70.41% (95% CI 49.94% to 90.88%, low certainty) against BA.2 infection at ≥7 days after the third-dose vaccination. The third-dose VE against hospitalisation remained stable over time and maintained 79.30% (95% CI 58.65% to 99.94%, moderate certainty) at 91-120 days. The fourth-dose VE up to 60 days was 67.54% (95% CI 59.76% to 75.33%, moderate certainty) for hospitalisation and 77.88% (95% CI 72.55% to 83.21%, moderate certainty) for death. CONCLUSION: The boosters provided substantial protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes for at least 6 months, although the duration of protection remains uncertain, suggesting the need for a booster dose within 6 months of the third-dose or fourth-dose vaccination. However, the certainty of evidence in our VE estimates varied from very low to moderate, indicating significant heterogeneity among studies that should be considered when interpreting the findings for public health policies. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023376698.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Age-Dependent Infection Rates among Household and Nonhousehold Contacts.

To determine the effects of age and variants of concern on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we analyzed infection rates among close contacts over 4 periods in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. Among household contacts, odds of infection were 6.2 times higher during the period of the Omicron variant than during previous periods, particularly among children and adolescents.

National seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 after the initial rollout of vaccines: Before and at the peak of the Omicron-dominant period in Japan.

Background: Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan. Methods: A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection. Results: Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients. Conclusions: Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.

Protective effect of previous infection and vaccination against reinfection with BA.5 Omicron subvariant: a nationwide population-based study in Japan.

Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was reported to evade immunity derived from vaccination and previous infection. A better understanding of hybrid immunity informs effective infection control strategies. Since the reinfection risk was not well-assessed in East Asia, this study aims to evaluate the risk of infection with Omicron subvariant BA.5 among previously infected individuals in Japan. Methods: All notified cases were extracted from the Japanese national COVID-19 surveillance database including 20,297,335 records up to 25 September 2022. Reinfection with BA.5 was defined as the infection notified during the BA.5 dominated period with any prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The protective effect of prior infections against reinfections with BA.5 was estimated by applying a case-population design and the protective effect of vaccination was estimated by a multivariable Cox regression adjusting for age, sex, variants of prior infection, and the time since the last vaccination. Findings: Among 19,830,548 SARS-CoV-2 first infections, 233,424 (1.2%) were reinfected with BA.5. The protective effect against BA.5 reinfection of prior infection with Wuhan strain was 46%, Alpha variant was 35%, Delta variant was 41%, and BA.1/BA.2 subvariant was 74%. The reduced risk of BA.5 reinfection by 7%, 33%, and 66% was associated with two, three, and four doses of vaccination, respectively, compared with one-dose vaccination. Interpretation: The prior infections with Omicron subvariant BA.1/BA.2 protected BA.5 reinfection more than pre-Omicron variants. Increased frequency of vaccination led to more protection from reinfection with BA.5. Up-to-date vaccination may be encouraged to prevent future reinfection among the previously infected population. Funding: None.

Comparison of Rhinovirus A-, B-, and C-Associated Respiratory Tract Illness Severity Based on the 5'-Untranslated Region Among Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Background: Rhinoviruses (RVs) are among the most frequently detected viruses from hospitalized children with severe acute respiratory infections, being classified into RV-A, RV-B, and RV-C (4 clades: C, GAC1, GAC2, and A2). This study aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and respiratory tract illness severity between the RV species and RV-C clades in children in primary care and hospital settings in rural communities in the Philippines. Methods: Clinical samples and information of children <5 years old in the Philippines were collected from 2014 to 2016. The samples were tested by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) targeting the 5'-untranslated region. PCR-positive samples were sequenced, and RV species were identified by phylogenetic analysis. Results: Overall, 3680 respiratory tract illness episodes in 1688 cohort children were documented; 713 of those were RV positive and identified as RV-A (n = 271), RV-B (n = 47), and RV-C (n = 395: C [n = 76], GAG1 [n = 172], GAG2 [n = 8], A2 [n = 138], and unidentified [n = 1]). Severe illnesses, low oxygen saturation, cough, and wheezing were more common in patients with RV-C, especially with GAC1, than in those with RV-A or RV-B. Furthermore, severe illness was significantly more common in RV-C (GAC1)-positive cases than in RV-A-positive cases (odds ratio, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.17-4.13]). Conclusions: Children infected with RV-C had more severe illnesses than children infected with RV-A and RV-B. Moreover, emerging clades of RV-C were associated with increased severity.

Impact of the Coming-of-Age Day and ceremony on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Japan: A natural-experimental study based on national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day. METHODS: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality. RESULTS: We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.

Incidence of lower respiratory tract infection and associated viruses in a birth cohort in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and young children. However, the etiological role of viruses and the timing of developing LRTI are not well defined. METHODS: We analyzed the data of a prospective cohort study in the Philippines as a birth cohort. We detected LRTI among children who visited healthcare facilities with respiratory symptom, and collected nasopharyngeal swabs for virus detection. We analyzed the incidence rates (IRs) and cumulative proportion of LRTI and severe LRTI by age group and each virus detected. RESULTS: A total of 350 LRTI episodes were observed from 473 child-years yielded from 419 children. The IRs of LRTI were 70.8, 70.7, and 80.8 per 100 child-years for 0-5, 6-11, and 12-23 months of age, respectively. By 12 months of age, 45% of children developed LRTI at least once. Rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus were the most frequently detected viruses in all age groups. However, the IRs of influenza virus were low especially at 0-5 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: We identified various patterns of age-specific IRs of LRTI and severe LRTI for different viruses, which should be considered to establish more effective interventions including vaccinations.

Replacement of SARS-CoV-2 strains with variants carrying N501Y and L452R mutations in Japan: an epidemiological surveillance assessment.

Objective: Monitoring the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is important due to concerns regarding infectivity, transmissibility, immune evasion and disease severity. We evaluated the temporal and regional replacement of previous SARS-CoV-2 variants by the emergent strains, Alpha and Delta. Methods: We obtained the results of polymerase chain reaction screening tests for variants conducted in multiple commercial laboratories. Assuming that all previous strains would be replaced by one variant, the new variant detection rate was estimated by fitting a logistic growth model. We estimated the transmission advantage of each new variant over the pre-existing virus strains. Results: The variant with the N501Y mutation was first identified in the Kinki region in early February 2021, and by early May, it had replaced more than 90% of the previous strains. The variant with the L452R mutation was first detected in the Kanto-Koshin region in mid-May, and by early August, it comprised more than 90% of the circulating strains. Compared with pre-existing strains, the variant with the N501Y mutation showed transmission advantages of 48.2% and 40.3% in the Kanto-Koshin and Kinki regions, respectively, while the variant with the L452R mutation showed transmission advantages of 60.1% and 71.9%, respectively. Discussion: In Japan, Alpha and Delta variants displayed regional differences in the replacement timing and their relative transmission advantages. Our method is efficient in monitoring and estimating changes in the proportion of variant strains in a timely manner in each region.

Risk of Transmission and Viral Shedding From the Time of Infection for Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Households.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, but reports of temporal changes in the risk of transmission among close contacts has been scarce. This study aimed to examine an association between the viral load trajectory and transmission risk to develop a better control strategy for the disease spread. We conducted a household-based prospective cohort study in Biliran Province, the Philippines, and enrolled 451 participants to observe the development of acute respiratory infection. Including the cases found at the health-care facility, we analyzed the data of viral loads with symptom records obtained from 172 followed participants who had household member positive for RSV with a rapid test during an RSV outbreak in 2018-2019. We developed a model estimating a temporal change in the viral shedding from the infection and evaluated transmission dynamics. We found that most transmission events occurred within approximately 7 days of the household exposure, including potential presymptomatic transmissions. The inferred risk of infection among those younger than 5 years was 3.5 times higher than that of those older than 5 years. This finding suggested that the initial week after the household exposure is particularly important for preventing RSV spread.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children with acute respiratory viral infections in the Philippines: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Viral acute respiratory infection (ARI) remains a major global health problem, especially among children in low- and middle-income countries. The study was conducted to reveal aetiological significance of respiratory viruses among both non-hospitalized and hospitalized children. METHODS: A cohort study of children with ARI at the household, primary healthcare facility, and hospital levels was conducted alongside a hospital-based study including non-cohort children from 2014 to 2016 in the Philippines. The ARI cases were recorded at households and healthcare facilities, and a clinical investigation was performed. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from the symptomatic children and tested for respiratory viruses via polymerase chain reaction. Then, the association between healthcare facility utilization and viral detection was investigated. RESULTS: Overall, 18,514 ARI cases were enrolled in the cohort study, and samples were collected from 4735 of these cases. The hospital-based study detected 648 ARI cases, all of which were sampled. Rhinovirus (22.2%; 1052/4735) was most frequently detected followed by respiratory syncytial virus (12.0%; 566/4735). Enterovirus (adjusted odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.8), human metapneumovirus (2.1, 1.4-3.2), rhinovirus (2.1, 1.8-2.6), and respiratory syncytial virus (1.6, 1.2-1.9) were significantly more prevalent in the ARI cases at healthcare facilities than in those in households. Of all ARI cases, 0.6% required hospitalization while 1.8% were hospitalized among the respiratory syncytial virus-positive cases (3.8, 3.0-4.9). CONCLUSIONS: We determined the prevalence of respiratory viruses among children with ARIs at the household, primary healthcare facility, and hospital levels and the association with clinical characteristics. In particular, we discovered a significant disease burden and impact of respiratory syncytial virus infections as well as a considerable aetiological implication of rhinovirus infections.

An enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli outbreak spread through the environment at an institute for people with intellectual disabilities in Japan in 2005.

OBJECTIVE: An enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) outbreak at an institute with multiple facilities for children and adults with intellectual disabilities was investigated to characterize the cases and identify risk factors for infection. METHODS: A case was defined as a resident, a staff member or a visitor at the institute from 16 May through 30 June 2005 testing positive for type 2 Vero toxin-producing EHEC O157:H7 (confirmed case) or exhibiting bloody diarrhoea for two or more days (probable case). We collected and analysed demographic, clinical, laboratory and individual behaviour data to identify possible risk factors for infection and infection routes. RESULTS: We recorded 58 confirmed cases, of which 13 were symptomatic. One probable case was also found. The median age of the patients was 37 years (range: 6-59 years). Thirty-six patients (61%) were male. Thirteen patients (93%) had diarrhoea and six (43%) had abdominal pain. Two developed haemolytic-uraemic syndrome but recovered. All the patients were treated with antibiotics and tested negative after treatment. Some residents had problems with personal hygiene. The residents of one of the facilities who cleaned a particular restroom had 18.0 times higher odds of being infected with EHEC (95% confidence interval: 4.0-102.4) than those who did not. DISCUSSION: The source of the outbreak could not be identified; however, the infection may have spread through environmental sources contaminated with EHEC. We recommend that institutional settings, particularly those that accommodate people with intellectual disabilities, clean restrooms as often as possible to reduce possible infection from contact with infected surfaces.

Use of antibiotics for common illnesses among children aged under 5 years in a rural community in Indonesia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of antimicrobial resistance has been increasing worldwide in the past decades, which includes resistance to bacteria that cause common childhood illnesses, such as acute respiratory infections and diarrhea. Numerous children with those common illnesses are treated with antibiotics. However, in such cases, antibiotic treatment is not required. Community-based studies focusing on antibiotic use among children are still limited. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of antibiotic use for common childhood illnesses and to investigate factors associated with antibiotic use in children under 5 years old as well as female caregivers in a rural community in Indonesia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 334 children in three villages of Banten Province, located in the western part of Java Island, was conducted in May 2018. Female caregivers who were responsible for providing medications to children were interviewed. We obtained information such as demographic data, any common clinical illness within the last 30 days, and antibiotic usage during an episode of illness. We excluded children with underlying disease that require a regular follow-up and children who were hospitalized in the last 30 days in the analysis. Antibiotic use answered by female caregivers was verified by checking its package or showing photos of various antibiotics to the female caregivers. Crushed antibiotics were confirmed with health professionals. RESULTS: A total of 203 children had clinical symptoms, and the most common symptom was fever and respiratory symptoms. In total, 49.3% received antibiotics, and 66% of them were prescribed by private health professionals. Only two children received antibiotics without a prescription. The most common antibiotic used among children was amoxicillin. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of antibiotic use was observed in children under 5 years of age, and the major source to obtain antibiotics was to consult health professionals. Training on appropriate antibiotic use must be conducted for health professionals in not only public but also private sectors.

Aetiology and risks factors associated with the fatal outcomes of childhood pneumonia among hospitalised children in the Philippines from 2008 to 2016: a case series study.

OBJECTIVE: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of hospitalisations and deaths among children aged <5 years. Diverse respiratory pathogens cause acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia. Here, we analysed viral and bacterial pathogens and risk factors associated with death of hospitalised children. DESIGN: A 9-year case series study. SETTING: Two secondary-care hospitals, one tertiary-care hospital and one research centre in the Philippines. PARTICIPANTS: 5054 children aged <5 years hospitalised with severe pneumonia. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swabs for virus identification, and venous blood samples for bacterial culture were collected. Demographic, clinical data and laboratory findings were collected at admission time. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with death. RESULTS: Of the enrolled patients, 57% (2876/5054) were males. The case fatality rate was 4.7% (238/5054), showing a decreasing trend during the study period (p<0.001). 55.0% of the patients who died were either moderately or severely underweight. Viruses were detected in 61.0% of the patients, with respiratory syncytial virus (27.0%) and rhinovirus (23.0%) being the most commonly detected viruses. In children aged 2-59 months, the risk factors significantly associated with death included age of 2-5 months, sensorial changes, severe malnutrition, grunting, central cyanosis, decreased breath sounds, tachypnoea, fever (≥38.5°C), saturation of peripheral oxygen <90%, infiltration, consolidation and pleural effusion on chest radiograph.Among the pathogens, adenovirus type 7, seasonal influenza A (H1N1) and positive blood culture for bacteria were significantly associated with death. Similar patterns were observed between the death cases and the aforementioned factors in children aged <2 months. CONCLUSION: Malnutrition was the most common factor associated with death and addressing this issue may decrease the case fatality rate. In addition, chest radiographic examination and oxygen saturation measurement should be promoted in all hospitalised patients with pneumonia as well as bacteria detection to identify patients who are at risk of death.

Transmission of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Among Children Under 5 Years in Households of Rural Communities, the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: To develop a more effective vaccination strategy for reducing the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, especially in young infants (<6 months old), it is necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of RSV. METHODS: We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study from 2014 to 2016 in Biliran Province, the Philippines, on children <5 years old. We collected nasopharyngeal swabs from symptomatic children with acute respiratory infection (ARI) during household visits and at health facilities. In households (n = 181) with RSV-positive ARI cases (RSV-ARI), we also identified ARI episodes among other children <5 years old in the same household. In addition, we determined the serial interval to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0), the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case. RESULTS: In the 181 households analyzed, we found 212 RSV-ARI in 152 households with a single case and 29 households with multiple cases, which included 29 1st RSV-ARI and 31 2nd RSV-ARI. We also found possible index cases among children <5 years old in the same household for 29.0% (18 of 62) of young infants with RSV-ARI. The estimated mean serial interval was 3.2 days, and R 0 was estimated to be 0.92-1.33 for RSV-A and 1.04-1.76 for RSV-B, which varied between different times (2014 and 2015) and places. CONCLUSIONS: Young infants are likely to acquire RSV infection from older children in the same household. Therefore, vaccination targeting older children might protect infants from RSV infection.

Age-specific incidence rates and risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus-associated lower respiratory tract illness in cohort children under 5 years old in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main viral causes of lower respiratory tract illness (LRTI), especially in young children. RSV vaccines, including maternal and infant vaccines, are under development; however, more epidemiological studies are needed to develop effective vaccination strategies. OBJECTIVES: To estimate detailed age-specific incidence rates and severity of RSV-associated LRTI (RSV-LRTI) using data from a community-based prospective cohort study in the Philippines. PATIENTS/METHODS: Cohort children who visited health facilities due to acute respiratory symptoms were identified, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected to detect RSV. The severity of RSV-LRTI was assessed using the severity definition proposed by the World Health Organization. Risk factors for developing RSV-LRTI and contribution of SpO2 measurement were also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 395 RSV episodes which occurred in children aged 2-59 months were categorised as 183 RSV-LRTI, 72 as severe RSV-LRTI and 29 as very severe RSV-LRTI. Children aged 3-5 months had the highest incidence rate of RSV-LRTI, at 207.4 per 1000 child-years (95% CI: 149.0-279.5). Younger age group, place of living and low educational level of caregivers were associated with developing RSV-LRTI. Clinical manifestations had low levels of agreement with hypoxaemia as measured by pulse oximeter. CONCLUSION: The highest burden of RSV was observed in young infants aged 3-5 months, whereas the burden was also high in those aged 12-20 months. Future vaccination strategies should consider the protection of older children, especially those aged one year, as well as young infants.

Estimates of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus incidences with fraction modeling approach in Baguio City, the Philippines, 2012-2014.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of the incidences of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is important for disease control. Previous estimate in the city showed a substantial burden of influenza in both outpatients and inpatients while it did not account for individuals who do not seek medical attention nor RSV. PATIENTS/METHODS: A total of 17 674 influenza-like illness (ILI) and 13 242 severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) cases were recruited, and samples were collected from 6267 and 2962 of ILI and SARI cases, respectively. RT-PCR assays were performed to detect influenza and RSV in the samples. A health-seeking behavior survey was conducted from February 2014 to April 2014 to estimate the fraction of infected individuals who did not seek medical attention between rainy and dry season. RESULTS: Average influenza and RSV incidence rates in outpatients were 1.6 and 1.4 per 1000 individuals, respectively, and the highest incidence rate for both viruses was found in the of 6-23 month age group. Average influenza and RSV hospitalization incidence rates were 1.7 and 1.9 per 1000 individuals, respectively. Further, we estimated that the incidence rates of influenza and RSV in individuals who did not seek medical attention were threefold and 1.6-fold those in the medically attended population. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza pose a substantial disease burden, particularly in hospitalized cases. The implementation of either a community-based approach or an enhanced surveillance system in combination with a community survey will allow a better understanding of the disease burdens of RSV and influenza in the Philippines.

Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

INTRODUCTION: The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. RESULTS: At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. CONCLUSIONS: Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.

Local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B viruses in Leyte Island, Philippines.

The local and global transmission dynamics of influenza B virus is not completely understood mainly because of limited epidemiological and sequence data for influenza B virus. Here we report epidemiological and molecular characteristics of influenza B viruses from 2010 to 2013 in Leyte Island, Philippines. Phylogenetic analyses showed global dissemination of the virus among both neighboring and distant areas. The analyses also suggest that southeast Asia is not a distributor of influenza B virus and can introduce the virus from other areas. Furthermore, we found evidence on the local persistence of the virus over years in the Philippines. Taken together, both local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B virus.

Burden of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Pregnant Women and Infants Under 6 Months in Mongolia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women and infants under 6 months are at risk of influenza-related complications. Limited information exists on their community burden of respiratory viruses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This prospective, observational open cohort study was conducted in Baganuur district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia during 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (sARI) were identified by follow-up calls twice a week. For those identified, influenza and respiratory syncytical virus (RSV) were tested by point-of-care test kits. We calculated overall and stratified (by trimester or age group) incidence rates (IR) and used Cox proportional hazard regression for risk factor analyses. Among 1260 unvaccinated pregnant women enrolled, overall IRs for ILI, sARI and influenza A were 11.8 (95% confidence interval (C.I):11.2-12.4), 0.1 (95%C.I:0.0-0.4), and 1.7 (95%C.I:1.5-1.9) per 1,000person-days, respectively. One sARI case was influenza A positive. IRs and adjusted hazard ratios (Adj.HR) for ILI and influenza A were lowest in the third trimester. Those with co-morbidity were 1.4 times more likely to develop ILI [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1-1.9)]. Among 1304 infants enrolled, overall ILI and sARI IRs were 15.2 (95%C.I:14.5-15.8) and 20.5 (95%C.I:19.7-21.3) per 1,000person-days, respectively. From the tested ILI (77.6%) and sARI (30.6%) cases, the overall positivity rates were 6.3% (influenza A), 1.1% (influenza B) and 9.3% (RSV). Positivity rates of influenza A and RSV tend to increase with age. sARI cases were 1.4 times more likely to be male [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1-1.8)]. Among all influenza A and RSV positive infants, 11.8% and 68.0% were respectively identified among sARI hospitalized cases. CONCLUSION: We observed low overall influenza A burden in both groups, though underestimation was likely due to point-of-care tests used. For infants, RSV burden was more significant than influenza A. These findings would be useful for establishing control strategies for both viruses in Mongolia.