Catalog of 525 sprites observed over Japan from September 2016 to March 2021.

We present a catalog of 525 sprites detected over the Sea of Japan and a northeast part of the Pacific Ocean from Sagamihara between September 2016 and March 2021. We analyze the morphology of 525, estimate the location of 441, and calculate the accurate top height of 15 sprites. More than half of our samples occurred in winter, while only 11% were in summer. In terms of morphology, 52% to 60% column type sprites took place in spring, autumn, and winter, while only 15.5% in summer. Therefore, summer thunderstorms are more likely to produce sprites with complex structures like carrots. Furthermore, sprites in summer are almost all located on the main island of Japan, and their spatial distributions are significantly different from the other seasons. Finally, from the perspective of the time distribution, the number of sprites is the largest at 1:00 JST. In addition, the morphology of sprites tends to be simple (e.g., a column type) at midnight JST.

Periodic oscillations of atmospheric electric field during snowfall in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

We report the first observations of periodic oscillations of an atmospheric electric field simultaneously derived by field mills at four observation sites at a distance of 50-65 km in metropolitan Tokyo. Oscillations were detected during a snowfall event on 23-24 November, 2016. The main period of the oscillations of the atmospheric electric field at CHB was 78 min, which was similar to those at other sites. The periods of 39.0, 54.6, and 78.0 min observed at Chiba (CHB) were similar to those observed by W-band cloud radar (FALCON-I) reflectivity below a height of 5 km. High coherence of the 78-min period between the atmospheric electric field at CHB and the X-band phased array weather radar reflectivity suggest that the periodic oscillations of the atmospheric electric field during snowfall were caused by vertically convective cells in snow clouds with a radius of 60 km centered on CHB.

Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity.

The relation between the size of an earthquake mainshock preparation zone and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock is different between nucleation and domino-like cascade models. The former model indicates that magnitude is predictable before an earthquake's mainshock because the preparation zone is related to the rupture area. In contrast, the latter indicates that magnitude is substantially unpredictable because it is practically impossible to predict the size of final rupture, which likely consists of a sequence of smaller earthquakes. As this proposal is still controversial, we discuss both models statistically, comparing their spatial occurrence rates between foreshocks and aftershocks. Using earthquake catalogs from three regions, California, Japan, and Taiwan, we showed that the spatial occurrence rates of foreshocks and aftershocks displayed a similar behavior, although this feature did not vary between these regions. An interpretation of this result, which was based on statistical analyses, indicates that the nucleation model is dominant.

A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole.

Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.

Spatiotemporal variations of seismicity before major earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the epicentral locations.

Using the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog, we investigate the seismicity variations before major earthquakes in the Japanese region. We apply natural time, the new time frame, for calculating the fluctuations, termed ß, of a certain parameter of seismicity, termed κ1. In an earlier study, we found that ß calculated for the entire Japanese region showed a minimum a few months before the shallow major earthquakes (magnitude larger than 7.6) that occurred in the region during the period from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011. In this study, by dividing the Japanese region into small areas, we carry out the ß calculation on them. It was found that some small areas show ß minimum almost simultaneously with the large area and such small areas clustered within a few hundred kilometers from the actual epicenter of the related main shocks. These results suggest that the present approach may help estimation of the epicentral location of forthcoming major earthquakes.

Preseismic changes of the level and temperature of confined groundwater related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake.

Anomalous groundwater changes started three months before the 2011 M9.0 Off the Pacific coast of the Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku EQ), Japan. Groundwater level and temperature decreased almost simultaneously in a 2000-m well at a spa, Goyo-onsen, in Iwate Prefecture, 155 km northwest of the epicenter. Since the source of Goyo-onsen, located above the edge of a coseismic rupture area of the Tohoku EQ fault, is probably confined, the observed anomalies were caused probably by preseismic crustal deformation. Preseismic groundwater anomalies have been observed prior to similar large subduction EQs such as the 1946 M8.1 Nankai EQ. Thus, monitoring confined groundwater may be useful to identify precursors of large subduction EQs.

Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan.

It has been shown that some dynamic features hidden in the time series of complex systems can be uncovered if we analyze them in a time domain called natural time χ. The order parameter of seismicity introduced in this time domain is the variance of χ weighted for normalized energy of each earthquake. Here, we analyze the Japan seismic catalog in natural time from January 1, 1984 to March 11, 2011, the day of the M9 Tohoku earthquake, by considering a sliding natural time window of fixed length comprised of the number of events that would occur in a few months. We find that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit distinct minima a few months before all of the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger that occurred during this 27-y period in the Japanese area. Among the minima, the minimum before the M9 Tohoku earthquake was the deepest. It appears that there are two kinds of minima, namely precursory and nonprecursory, to large earthquakes.

Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan.

Monitoring of telluric current, which is practically a synonym for geoelectric potential difference, was conducted on Kozu-shima Island about 170 km south of Tokyo from May 14, 1997 to June 25, 2000. During the monitoring period, 19 anomalous telluric current changes (ATCs) were observed. Their possible correlation with nearby earthquakes was statistically examined by assuming various lead times for different ranges of magnitude and focal distance. The best correlation may be obtained for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 3.0 occurring within 20 km of focal distance. There were 23 such earthquakes, of which 11 were preceded by ATCs within 30 d. Of these 11 earthquakes, preceding ATCs of 5 and 6 were positive and negative polarities of telluric current, respectively. Their epicenters were spatially well clustered in the east and west of the island. These facts were clearly beyond those expected by chance and led to a simple speculative model.

Natural time analysis of critical phenomena.

A quantity exists by which one can identify the approach of a dynamical system to the state of criticality, which is hard to identify otherwise. This quantity is the variance κ(1)(≡<χ(2)> - <χ>(2)) of natural time χ, where = Σp(k)f(χ(k)) and p(k) is the normalized energy released during the kth event of which the natural time is defined as χ(k) = k/N and N stands for the total number of events. Then we show that κ(1) becomes equal to 0.070 at the critical state for a variety of dynamical systems. This holds for criticality models such as 2D Ising and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile, which is the standard example of self-organized criticality. This condition of κ(1) = 0.070 holds for experimental results of critical phenomena such as growth of rice piles, seismic electric signals, and the subsequent seismicity before the associated main shock.

Subterranean electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan.

Following the electric current injection experiment carried out in 2009, a VLF-MT (Very Low Frequency Magnetotelluric) survey has been conducted in Kozu-shima Island to obtain further information on the subterranean electrical structure that might help understanding the results of our monitoring of geoelectric potentials. A number of VAN-type pre-seismic geoelectric potential anomalies were observed in 1997-2000, even showing a remarkable "Selectivity". However, similar pre-seismic anomalies were not observed during the Izu-Island volcano-seismic swarm 2000. All these observations would require extremely high degree of heterogeneity in the subterranean electrical structure of the volcanic island and its possible time changes. Several correlations between the results of this survey and the volcanic geology of the island and ground water distribution were found. Further investigation is needed for a complete explanation of the observed phenomena.

Development of newly designed VHF interferometer system for observing earthquake-related atmospheric anomalies.

Temporal correlation between atmospheric anomalies and earthquakes has recently been verified statistically through measuring VHF FM radio waves transmitted beyond the line-of-sight. In order to locate the sources of such atmospheric anomalies, we developed a VHF interferometer system (bistatic-radar type) capable of finding the arrival direction of FM radio waves scattered possibly by earthquake-related atmospheric anomalies. In general, frequency modulation of FM radio waves produces ambiguity of arrival direction. However, our system, employing high-sampling rates of the order of kHz, can precisely measure the arrival direction of FM radio waves by stacking received signals.

Heterogeneous electrical structure of Kozu-shima volcanic island, Japan.

Nearly twenty anomalous geoelectric field changes were observed before earthquakes at Kozu-shima Island, Japan, from 1997 to 2000. In order to help locating the current sources of the observed anomalous changes, a bipole-dipole resistivity survey was conducted. From the resistivity survey, including current injection into the ground, it was found that various features of the anomalous changes were systematically different from those of changes caused by artificial sources and induction of geomagnetic disturbances. Moreover, it is suspected that the currents of anomalous changes were generated not near the ground surface but deep under the ground.

Independent component analysis of geoelectric field data in the northern Nagano, Japan.

Simultaneous anomalous change of geoelectric field was observed on January 17, 1999 at three far-distant stations in Nagano Prefecture, Japan. Eleven days after the anomalous change, an earthquake swarm with a M4.8 main shock started at a location within the triangle formed by the three stations. This change was rectangular in shape like the VAN-type anomalous change in Greece. The anomaly could be detected because it occurred at midnight when the noise level was low. In fact, there were a few M4-class earthquakes in the area for which no preceding anomalous electric changes were observed, perhaps because the changes occurred during the noisy daytime. In this paper, we examine if it is possible to extract the signal with the size of the anomalous change on January 17, 1999 from the noisy daytime data by Independent Component Analysis. For this purpose, a simulated noise was embedded in the real daytime data which were highly influenced by not only artificial noise but also by geomagnetic disturbances and rainfall. Even when the influence of geomagnetic disturbance or rainfall was large, the anomalous change was clearly recognized at least at two stations in all cases.