Indigenous insights on human-wildlife coexistence in southern India.

As human-wildlife conflicts escalate worldwide, concepts such as tolerance and acceptance of wildlife are becoming increasingly important. Yet, contemporary conservation studies indicate a limited understanding of positive human-wildlife interactions, leading to potentially inaccurate representations of human-animal encounters. Failure to address these limitations contributes to the design and implementation of poor wildlife and landscape management plans and the dismissal of Indigenous ecological knowledge. We examined Indigenous perspectives on human-wildlife coexistence in India by drawing ethnographic evidence from Kattunayakans, a forest-dwelling Adivasi community living in the Wayanad Wildlife Sanctuary in Kerala. Through qualitative field study that involved interviews and transect walks inside the forests, we found that Kattunayakans displayed tolerance and acceptance of wild animals characterized as forms of deep coexistence that involves three central ideas: wild animals as rational conversing beings; wild animals as gods, teachers, and equals; and wild animals as relatives with shared origins practicing dharmam. We argue that understanding these adequately will support efforts to bring Kattunayakan perspectives into the management of India's forests and contribute to the resolution of the human-wildlife conflict more broadly.

Conocimiento Originario sobre la Coexistencia entre Humanos y Fauna en el Sur de la India ResumenConforme el conflicto humano-fauna escala a nivel mundial, los conceptos como la tolerancia y aceptación de la fauna son cada vez más importantes. Aun así, los estudios actuales sobre conservación muestran un conocimiento limitado de las interacciones positivas entre los humanos y la fauna, lo que lleva a representaciones potencialmente erróneas de los encuentros entre estos dos grupos. Las fallas al abordar estas limitaciones contribuyen al diseño e implementación de planes deficientes de manejo de fauna y paisajes y la desestimación del saber ecológico de los pueblos originarios. Analizamos las perspectivas de los pueblos originarios sobre la coexistencia entre las personas y la fauna en la India mediante la toma de evidencia etnográfica de los Kattunayakans, una comunidad Adivasi residente del bosque en el Santuario de Fauna Wayanad en Kerala. Realizamos un estudio cualitativo de campo con entrevistas y caminatas por transectos dentro del bosque. Con el estudio descubrimos que los Kattunayakans demostraron una tolerancia y aceptación por los animales silvestres caracterizada como maneras de coexistencia profunda que involucra tres ideas centrales: los animales silvestres son seres hablantes racionales; los animales como divinidades, maestros e iguales; y los animales silvestres como familiares practicantes del dharmam con orígenes compartidos. Argumentamos que el entendimiento de estas ideas centrales respaldará los esfuerzos por incorporar las perspectivas de los Kattunayakan a la gestión forestal de la India y contribuirá a grandes rasgos a la solución del conflicto humano-fauna.

Farmers' Risk-Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging.

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent-based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large-scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision-making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab- and modeling-based studies.

Correction: Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182233.].

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays.

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical "groupthink" errors. When the problem context is underspecified the probability that experts commit groupthink errors may increase. This study addresses how structured workshops affect expert variability among and certainty within responses in a New Zealand case study. We find that experts' risk estimates before and after a workshop differ, and that group elicitations provided greater consistency of estimates, yet also greater uncertainty among experts, when addressing prominent impacts to four different ecosystem services in coastal New Zealand. After group workshops, experts provided more consistent ranking of risks and more consistent best estimates of impact through increased clarity in terminology and dampening of extreme positions, yet probability distributions for impacts widened. The results from this case study suggest that group elicitations have favorable consequences for the quality and uncertainty of risk judgments within and across experts, making group elicitation techniques invaluable tools in contexts of limited data.

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches like this to understand mechanisms of impact, in order to develop strategies to manage them.

PM2.5 Population Exposure in New Delhi Using a Probabilistic Simulation Framework.

This paper presents a Geographical Information System (GIS) based probabilistic simulation framework to estimate PM2.5 population exposure in New Delhi, India. The framework integrates PM2.5 output from spatiotemporal LUR models and trip distribution data using a Gravity model based on zonal data for population, employment and enrollment in educational institutions. Time-activity patterns were derived from a survey of randomly sampled individuals (n = 1012) and in-vehicle exposure was estimated using microenvironmental monitoring data based on field measurements. We simulated population exposure for three different scenarios to capture stay-at-home populations (Scenario 1), working population exposed to near-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 2), and the working population exposed to on-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 3). Simulated annual average levels of PM2.5 exposure across the entire city were very high, and particularly severe in the winter months: ∼200 µg m(-3) in November, roughly four times higher compared to the lower levels in the monsoon season. Mean annual exposures ranged from 109 µg m(-3) (IQR: 97-120 µg m(-3)) for Scenario 1, to 121 µg m(-3) (IQR: 110-131 µg m(-3)), and 125 µg m(-3) (IQR: 114-136 µ gm(-3)) for Scenarios 2 and 3 respectively. Ignoring the effects of mobility causes the average annual PM2.5 population exposure to be underestimated by only 11%.

Scientists versus regulators: precaution, novelty & regulatory oversight as predictors of perceived risks of engineered nanomaterials.

Engineered nanoscale materials (ENMs) present a difficult challenge for risk assessors and regulators. Continuing uncertainty about the potential risks of ENMs means that expert opinion will play an important role in the design of policies to minimize harmful implications while supporting innovation. This research aims to shed light on the views of 'nano experts' to understand which nanomaterials or applications are regarded as more risky than others, to characterize the differences in risk perceptions between expert groups, and to evaluate the factors that drive these perceptions. Our analysis draws from a web-survey (N = 404) of three groups of US and Canadian experts: nano-scientists and engineers, nano-environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers. Significant differences in risk perceptions were found across expert groups; differences found to be driven by underlying attitudes and perceptions characteristic of each group. Nano-scientists and engineers at the upstream end of the nanomaterial life cycle perceived the lowest levels of risk, while those who are responsible for assessing and regulating risks at the downstream end perceived the greatest risk. Perceived novelty of nanomaterial risks, differing preferences for regulation (i.e. the use of precaution versus voluntary or market-based approaches), and perceptions of the risk of technologies in general predicted variation in experts' judgments of nanotechnology risks. Our findings underscore the importance of involving a diverse selection of experts, particularly those with expertise at different stages along the nanomaterial lifecycle, during policy development.

Expert views on regulatory preparedness for managing the risks of nanotechnologies.

The potential and promise of nanotechnologies depends in large part on the ability for regulatory systems to assess and manage their benefits and risks. However, considerable uncertainty persists regarding the health and environmental implications of nanomaterials, hence the capacity for existing regulations to meet this challenge has been widely questioned. Here we draw from a survey (N=254) of US-based nano-scientists and engineers, environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers, to ask whether nano experts regard regulatory agencies as prepared for managing nanomaterial risks. We find that all three expert groups view regulatory agencies as unprepared. The effect is strongest for regulators themselves, and less so for scientists conducting basic, applied, or health and safety work on nanomaterials. Those who see nanotechnology risks as novel, uncertain, and difficult to assess are particularly likely to see agencies as unprepared. Trust in regulatory agencies, views of stakeholder responsibility regarding the management of risks, and socio-political values were also found to be small but significant drivers of perceived agency preparedness. These results underscore the need for new tools and methods to enable the assessment of nanomaterial risks, and to renew confidence in regulatory agencies' ability to oversee their growing use and application in society.

Spatiotemporal land use regression models of fine, ultrafine, and black carbon particulate matter in New Delhi, India.

Air pollution in New Delhi, India, is a significant environmental and health concern. To assess determinants of variability in air pollutant concentrations, we develop land use regression (LUR) models for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ultrafine particle number concentrations (UFPN). We used 136 h (39 sites), 112 h (26 sites), 147 h (39 sites) of PM2.5, BC, and UFPN data respectively, to develop separate morning (0800-1200) and afternoon (1200-1800) models. Continuous measurements of PM2.5 and BC were also made at a single fixed rooftop site located in a high-income residential neighborhood. No continuous measurements of UFPN were available. In addition to spatial variables, measurements from the fixed continuous monitoring site were used as independent variables in the PM2.5 and BC models. The median concentrations (and interquartile range) of PM2.5, BC, and UFPN at LUR sites were 133 (96-232) µg m(-3), 11 (6-21) µg m(-3), and 40 (27-72) × 10(3) cm(-3) respectively. In addition (a) for PM2.5 and BC, the temporal variability was higher than the spatial variability; (b) the magnitude and spatial variability in pollutant concentrations was higher during morning than during afternoon hours. Further, model R(2) values were higher for morning (for PM2.5, BC, and UFPN, respectively: 0.85, 0.86, and 0.28) than for afternoon models (0.73, 0.69, and 0.23); (c) the PM2.5 and BC concentrations measured at LUR sites all over the city were strongly correlated with measured concentrations at a fixed rooftop site; (d) spatial patterns were similar for PM2.5 and BC but different for UFPN; (e) population density and road variables were statistically significant predictors of pollutant concentrations; and (f) available geographic predictors explained a much lower proportion of variability in measured PM2.5, BC, and UFPN than observed in other LUR studies, indicating the importance of temporal variability and suggesting the existence of uncharacterized sources.

From cradle-to-grave at the nanoscale: gaps in U.S. regulatory oversight along the nanomaterial life cycle.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) promise great benefits for society, yet our knowledge of potential risks and best practices for regulation are still in their infancy. Toward the end of better practices, this paper analyzes U.S. federal environmental, health, and safety (EHS) regulations using a life cycle framework. It evaluates their adequacy as applied to ENMs to identify gaps through which emerging nanomaterials may escape regulation from initial production to end-of-life. High scientific uncertainty, a lack of EHS and product data, inappropriately designed exemptions and thresholds, and limited agency resources are a challenge to both the applicability and adequacy of current regulations. The result is that some forms of engineered nanomaterials may escape federal oversight and rigorous risk review at one or more stages along their life cycle, with the largest gaps occurring at the postmarket stages, and at points of ENM release to the environment. Oversight can be improved through pending regulatory reforms, increased research and development for the monitoring, control, and analysis of environmental and end-of-life releases, introduction of periodic re-evaluation of ENM risks, and fostering a "bottom-up" stewardship approach to the responsible management of risks from engineered nanomaterials.

Characterization of ultrafine particulate matter from traditional and improved biomass cookstoves.

Biomass combustion in cookstoves has a substantial impact on human health, affects CO2 levels in the atmosphere, and black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) affect the earth's radiative balance. Various initiatives propose to replace traditional fires with "improved" (nontraditional) cookstoves to offset negative local and global effects. In this laboratory study, we compared the size, composition, and morphology of ultrafine particulate emissions from a "three-stone" traditional fire to those from two improved stove designs (one "rocket", one "gasifier"). Measurement tools included a scanning mobility particle sizer, PTFE and quartz filter samples, and transmission electron microscopy. In the improved stoves, particulate mass (PM) emissions factors were much lower although median particle size was also lower: 35 and 24 nm for the rocket and gasifier, respectively, vs 61 nm for the three-stone fire. Particles from improved stoves formed clearly defined chain agglomerates and independent spheres with little evidence of volatile matter and had a higher proportion of BC to total PM, although overall BC emissions factors were fairly uniform. The 3-fold increase in quantities of sub-30 nm particles from improved cookstoves warrants further consideration by health scientists, with due consideration to the higher combustion efficiencies of improved cookstoves.

Comparing embodied greenhouse gas emissions of modern computing and electronics products.

Information and communications technology (ICT) contributes substantially to global greenhouse gas (GHG) pollutant emissions, but it is time-consuming to estimate the environmental impacts caused by the production of ICT devices, and the literature lacks coverage for newer products. Using a process-sum life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, we estimate and compare the embodied GHG emissions of 11 ICT products, including large- and small-form-factor desktop and laptop personal computers, a thin client device, an LCD monitor, newer mobile devices (an Apple iPad, an iPod Touch, and an Amazon Kindle), a rack server, and a network switch. Full bills of materials are provided via hand disassembly and weighing and are mapped to processes in the ecoinvent v2.2 database to produce impact estimates. Results are analyzed to develop simplified impact estimation models using linear regressions based on product characteristics. A simple and robust linear relationship between mass and embodied emissions is identified; a more sophisticated linear model using display mass, battery mass, and circuit board mass as inputs is slightly more accurate. Embodied GHG emissions for newer products are 50-60% lower than corresponding older products with similar functionality, largely due to decreased material usage, especially reductions in integrated circuit content.

Climate and health relevant emissions from in-use Indian three-wheelers fueled by natural gas and gasoline.

Auto-rickshaws in India use different fuels and engine technologies, with varying emissions and implications for air quality and climate change. Chassis dynamometer emission testing was conducted on 30 in-use auto-rickshaws to quantify the impact of switching from gasoline to compressed natural gas (CNG) in spark-ignition engines. Thirteen test vehicles had two-stroke CNG engines (CNG-2S) and 17 had four-stroke CNG engines (CNG-4S), of which 11 were dual-fuel and operable on a back-up gasoline (petrol) system (PET-4S). Fuel-based emission factors were determined for gaseous pollutants (CO(2), CH(4), NO(X), THC, and CO) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)). Intervehicle variability was high, and for most pollutants there was no significant difference (95% confidence level) between "old" (1998-2001) and "new" (2007-2009) age-groups within a given fuel-technology class. Mean fuel-based PM(2.5) emission factor (mean (95% confidence interval)) for CNG-2S (14.2 g kg(-1) (6.2-26.7)) was almost 30 times higher than for CNG-4S (0.5 g kg(-1) (0.3-0.9)) and 12 times higher than for PET-4S (1.2 g kg(-1) (0.8-1.7)). Global warming commitment associated with emissions from CNG-2S was more than twice that from CNG-4S or PET-4S, due mostly to CH(4) emissions. Comprehensive measurements and data should drive policy interventions rather than assumptions about the impacts of clean fuels.

Anticipating the perceived risk of nanotechnologies.

Understanding emerging trends in public perceptions of nanomaterials is critically important for those who regulate risks. A number of surveys have explored public perceptions of their risks and benefits. In this paper we meta-analyse these surveys to assess the extent to which the following four hypotheses derived from previous studies of new technologies might be said to be valid for nanotechnologies: risk aversion will prevail over benefit appreciation; an increase in knowledge will not result in reduced aversion to risks; judgements will be malleable and subject to persuasion given risk-centric information; and contextual, psychometric and attitudinal predictors of perceived risk from prior studies can help anticipate future perceptions of nanotechnologies. We find that half the public has at least some familiarity with nanotechnology, and those who perceive greater benefits outnumber those who perceive greater risks by 3 to 1. However, a large minority of those surveyed (44%) is unsure, suggesting that risk judgements are highly malleable. Nanotechnology risk perceptions also appear to contradict some long-standing findings. In particular, unfamiliarity with nanotechnology is, contrary to expectations, not strongly associated with risk aversion and reduced 'knowledge deficits' are correlated with positive perceptions in this early and controversy-free period. Psychometric variables, trust and affect continue to drive risk perceptions in this new context, although the influence of both trust and affect is mediated, even reversed, by demographic and cultural variables. Given the potential malleability of perceptions, novel methods for understanding future public responses to nanotechnologies will need to be developed.

The impact of toxicity testing costs on nanomaterial regulation.

Information about the toxicity of nanoparticles is important in determining how nanoparticles will be regulated. In the U.S., the burden of collecting this information and conducting risk assessment is placed on regulatory agencies without the budgetary means to carry out this mandate. In this paper, we analyze the impact of testing costs on society's ability to gather information about nanoparticle toxicity and whether such costs can reasonably be borne by an emerging industry. We show for the United States that costs for testing existing nanoparticles ranges from $249 million for optimistic assumptions about nanoparticle hazards (i.e., they are primarily safe and mainly require simpler screening assays) to $1.18 billion for a more comprehensive precautionary approach (i.e., all nanomaterials require long-term in vivo testing). At midlevel estimates of total corporate R&D spending, and assuming plausible levels of spending on hazard testing, the time taken to complete testing is likely to be very high (34-53 years) if all existing nanomaterials are to be thoroughly tested. These delays will only increase with time as new nanomaterials are introduced. The delays are considerably less if less-stringent yet risk-averse perspectives are used. Our results support a tiered risk-assessment strategy similar to the EU's REACH legislation for regulating toxic chemicals.

Climate impacts of air quality policy: switching to a natural gas-fueled public transportation system in New Delhi.

Between 2001 and 2003, public transport vehicles in New Delhi were required to switch their fuel to natural gas in an attemptto reduce their air pollution impacts. This study examines the climatic impacts of New Delhi's fuel switching policy, and outlines implications for such efforts in rapidly industrializing countries. Natural gas is mostly composed of methane, an important greenhouse gas. Emitted aerosols (black carbon, particulate organic carbon, and sulfate) also cause radiative forcing. We find that methane and black carbon emissions are critical contributors to the change in carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2(e)] emissions. In New Delhi, the switch to natural gas results in a 30% increase in CO2(e) when the impact of aerosols is not considered. However, when aerosol emissions are taken into account in our model, the net effect of the switch is estimated to be a 10% reduction in CO2(e), and there may be as much as a 30% reduction in CO2(e). There is significant potential for emissions reductions through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism for such fuel switching projects.