Suicide in Hungary during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: Subgroup investigations.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 may unfavourably affect the mental health of individuals in various ways. Accordingly, the concern has been raised that national suicide rates will increase in the wake of the outbreak of the pandemic. METHODS: In the current study, we tested this conjecture in three age groups (<25; 25-64; ≥65) of the Hungarian total population and the male and female populations. In addition, we assessed whether the pandemic had different effects on counts of suicides committed by violent or non-violent methods. Finally, by comparing the monthly suicide rates in 2020 and the corresponding monthly rates in 2019, we also investigated the "pulling together" hypothesis that postulates that a temporary decrease in suicides may occur after large-scale catastrophic events. RESULTS: With regard to the total population only the suicide counts of individuals aged 25-64 rose significantly (p < 0.05) during the COVID months of 2020. Similar patterns, but at lower levels of significance (0.05 < p < 0.1), were found in those members of the total population aged 65 or older and among males aged between 25 and 64. Furthermore, we found that the number of violent suicides increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the COVID months. Finally, our results have not confirmed the existence of a "pulling together" phenomenon in association with the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary. LIMITATIONS: We used non-individual level data and were therefore unable to control suicide risk factors at the level of individuals. DISCUSSION: The number of suicides rose significantly in some subgroups of the Hungarian population during the COVID months of 2020.

[Suicide mortality in Hungary during the COVID-19 pandemic.] / Öngyilkossági halálozás Magyarországon a COVID­19-pandémia idején.

INTRODUCTION: While suicide rates did not change (or decreased) in the first pandemic year (i.e., 2020) in the majority of countries, in Hungary the number of completed suicides rose significantly. OBJECTIVE: In our study, we investigated whether the unfavourable trend reversal of the Hungarian suicide rate following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic persisted in the second pandemic year. METHOD: We used an interrupted time-series analysis with Prais-Winsten regression, controlling for time and seasonal effects as well as autoregressive effects, to estimate the effect of the pandemic on the suicide rates of the Hungarian male, female and total populations in 2020 and 2021. RESULTS: In the first pandemic year, we observed a significant increase in suicide rates in males and the total population. Although the case numbers for males and the total population in 2021 exceeded the case numbers of the pre-pandemic year, regression estimates suggest that the increase in rates did not differ significantly from the pre-pandemic years in males and it was only found to be significant at the 10% level in the total population. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Based on the examination of data from the first two pandemic years, we may conclude that by 2021 the adverse effect of the pandemic on suicidality reduced in the total population and disappeared in males. The question remains open whether this favourable development will continue. Orv Hetil. 2022; 163(48): 1895-1901.

Changes in suicide mortality of Hungary during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic / A magyarországi öngyilkossági halálozás változásai a COVID-19-járvány elso évében.

Összefoglaló. Bevezetés: Az öngyilkosság fo rizikófaktorának a pszichiátriai zavarokat tekintjük. A COVID-19 többek között neuropszichiátriai kórképek kialakulásához is vezethet. Ezen túl a pandémia egyéb velejárói, mint például az izoláció vagy a munkahelyvesztés, a társadalom egészséges tagjaiban is stresszhez, végül pszichiátriai zavarokhoz vezethetnek. Célkituzés: Vizsgálatunk célja annak a teóriának a tesztelése volt, hogy a fenti tényezok miatt együtt járt-e a járvány a hazai suicid halálozás csökkeno trendjének irányváltásával. Módszer: Vizsgálatunkban a megszakított idosorok elemzésének módszerét használtuk, a becslésekhez kvázi-Poisson-regressziót alkalmazva, hogy összehasonlítsuk a 2010 és 2020 közötti idoszak havi bontású adataiból kirajzolódó trendek alapján a járvány idoszakában (2020. március-december) "elvárt" öngyilkossági esetszámokat a ténylegesen bekövetkezett esetek számával. Eredmények: A COVID-19-hónapok alatt a férfiak által elkövetett öngyilkosságok száma szignifikánsan, 18%-kal nott, ahhoz a trendhez képest, amely a COVID-19 hiányában állt volna elo. A teljes populációban szintén szignifikáns, 16%-os emelkedést lehetett megfigyelni, míg a nok által elkövetett öngyilkosságok száma nem tért el szignifikánsan a pre-COVID-19-idoszak trendje alapján elvárt értéktol. Megbeszélés és következtetés: A járvány kitörése utáni idoszakban a magyar férfiak szignifikánsan gyakrabban követtek el öngyilkosságot, míg a noknél az adatok nem tükröztek lényegi változást. A más országokban kivitelezett vizsgálatok eredményei érdekes módon inkább csökkenést vagy nem szignifikáns változást jeleztek, amikor a COVID-19-éra suicid számait az azt megelozo idoszakok számaival hasonlították össze. A hazai és a nemzetközi eredmények közti eltérések magyarázata egyelore még nem ismert, így a téma mindenképpen további vizsgálatokat igényel. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(41): 1631-1636. INTRODUCTION: Psychiatric disorders are the main risk factors for suicide. COVID-19 may result in the appearance of neuropsychiatric syndromes. Moreover, other corollaries of the pandemic (e.g., isolation, job loss) may lead to increasing stress and, ultimately, psychiatric disorders even among the non-infected population. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to test the theory of whether the pandemic, due to the aforementioned factors, was associated with the reversal of the declining suicide rate trend in Hungary. METHOD: To compare the observed number of suicides during the COVID-19 months (March-December 2020) with the expected numbers, we used an interrupted time series model and, for the estimations, quasi-Poisson regression. Expected numbers were calculated based on trends derived from monthly data between 2010 and 2020. RESULTS: During the months of the pandemic, the number of suicides among males rose significantly by 18% compared to the hypothetical trend that would have occurred in the absence of COVID-19. A significant increase (16%) was also observed in the total population. By contrast, the number of female suicides did not differ significantly from the number expected based on the pre-COVID-19 trend. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: After the outbreak of the epidemic, Hungarian males committed significantly more suicides, while no relevant changes were observed among females. Interestingly, studies from other countries found either no change or decrease when comparing suicide numbers from the COVID-19 period with the corresponding numbers from the pre-COVID-19 period. The explanation for this discrepancy is still lacking, so further investigations are needed. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(41): 1631-1636.

Weak associations between the daily number of suicide cases and amount of daily sunlight.

Several environmental factors with periodic changes in intensity during the calendar year have been put forward to explain the increase in suicide frequency during spring and summer. In the current study we investigated the effect of averaged daily sunshine duration of periods with different lengths and 'lags' (i.e. the number of days between the last day of the period for which the averaged sunshine duration was calculated and the day of suicide) on suicide risk. We obtained data on daily numbers of suicide cases and daily sunshine duration in Hungary from 1979 to 2013. In order to remove the seasonal components from the two time series (i.e. numbers of suicide and sunshine hours) we used the differencing method. Pearson correlations (n=22,950) were calculated to reveal associations between sunshine duration and suicide risk. The final sample consisted of 122,116 suicide cases. Regarding the entire investigated period, after differencing, sunshine duration and number of suicides on the same days showed a distinctly weak, but highly significant positive correlation in the total sample (r=0.067; p=1.17*10-13). Positive significant correlations (p˂0.0001) between suicide risk on the index day and averaged sunshine duration in the previous days (up to 11days) were also found in the total sample. Our results from a large sample strongly support the hypothesis that sunshine has a prompt, but very weak increasing effect on the risk of suicide (especially violent cases among males). The main limitation is that possible confounding factors were not controlled for.

[Investigation of the association between arsenic levels in drinking water and suicide rate of Hungarian settlements between 2005 and 2011. A preliminary study]. / A hazai települések ivóvfzénekarzénszennezettsége és öngilkosságirátajának kapcsolata 2005 és 2011 között. A terülleti eltérések egyik lehetséges oka?

INTRODUCTION: Both suicidal behaviour and consumption of arsenic-contaminated drinking-water represent major public health problems. Previous epidemiological and animal studies showed that high arsenic intake may also be associated with the elevated risk for depression. Since untreated depression is the most powerful risk factor for suicidal behaviour, we postulated that the consumption of arsenic-contaminated tap drinking-water may also be related to suicide. METHOD: Based on the level of arsenic in their drinking water Hungarian settlements with more then 500 inhabitants (n=1639) were divided into four groups. Then average age-standardized suicide rates of the four groups were compared. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We found that the higher is the arsenic level in the drinking water the higher is the suicide rate of the settlements. In addition to the practical consequences of our preliminary results (e.g. in the suicide prevention) they also suggest that high level of arsenic in drinking water might contribute, at least in part, to the well-known and stable in time regional differences in suicide mortality of Hungary since the highest arsenic levels in drinking water have been found in counties with traditionally high suicide rates, such as Bacs-Kiskun, Csongrad, Bekes and Hajdu- Bihar.

Preliminary investigation of the possible association between arsenic levels in drinking water and suicide mortality.

BACKGROUND: Arsenic-contaminated drinking water (ACDW) represents a major global public health problem. A few previous studies suggested that consuming ACDW may be associated with elevated risk for depression. AIM: Since depression is the most relevant risk factor for suicide, we hypothesized that consumption of ACDW may be also associated with suicide. METHOD: To investigate this, we compared the age-standardized suicide rates (SSR) of 1639 Hungarian settlements with low (≤10µg/l), intermediate (11-30µg/l), high (31-50µg/l) and very high (≥51µg/l) levels of arsenic in drinking water. RESULT: We found a positive association between SSR and consumption of ACDW. LIMITATIONS: (1) we used aggregated (i.e., non-individual) data; (2) we have not adjusted our model for important medical and socio-demographic determinants of suicidal behavior; (3) we had no data on differences in bottled water consumption between settlements. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that in addition to its well-known adverse health effects, consumption of ACDW may also be associated with suicidal behavior.

Suicide in Hungary-epidemiological and clinical perspectives.

Annual suicide rates of Hungary were unexpectedly high in the previous century. In our narrative review, we try to depict, with presentation of the raw data, the main descriptive epidemiological features of the Hungarian suicide scene of the past decades. Accordingly, we present the annual suicide rates of the period mentioned and also data on how they varied by gender, age, urban vs. rural living, seasons, marital status, etc. Furthermore, the overview of trends of other factors that may have influenced suicidal behavior (e.g., alcohol and tobacco consumption, antidepressant prescription, unemployment rate) in the past decades is appended as well. Based on raw data and also on results of the relevant papers of Hungarian suicidology we tried to explain the observable trends of the Hungarian suicide rate. Eventually, we discuss the results, the possibilities, and the future tasks of suicide prevention in Hungary.

Associations between season of birth and the risk of lung cancer: epidemiological findings from Hungary.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Both incidence and mortality of lung cancer are especially high in Hungary. Several investigations suggested recently that month of birth (MOB) is associated with the risks of several nonmalignant disorders as well as some malignant disorders. Only a few studies investigated previously the association between MOB and risk of lung cancer, but they provided inconsistent results. We, therefore, decided to investigate this issue in a large sample of individuals who died from lung cancer. Accordingly, we determined the MOB-associated risk of death by lung cancer between the years 1970 and 2009 among all individuals born in Hungary between 1925 and 1934. The final sample included about two million people. A total of 61,904 deaths by lung cancer occurred in this sample during the period investigated. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA), we did not find significant association between MOB and risk of lung cancer death, either in the whole population investigated (F = 1.492; p = .145) or in the female subpopulation (F = 1.535; p = .129). However, those males born in late spring (May-June) had a lower risk of lung cancer development (F = 2.577; p = .006). Results of the Edwards test also did not suggest consistent association between MOB and risk of lung cancer death in the whole investigated period (1925-1934) in any populations (i.e., whole population or male and female subpopulations). In conclusion, we did not find significant association between MOB and risk of lung cancer in our total sample (although results alluded to a weak association between MOB and risk of lung cancer development among males). The possible associations between MOB and the risk of lung cancer development (or smoking) would require confirmation (or refutation) in large studies from other populations.

Tobacco consumption and antidepressant use are associated with the rate of completed suicide in Hungary: an ecological study.

The suicide rate of Hungary is the highest in the world averaged over the last century but it has shown a very pronounced decrease since 1987. To explore the background of this decrease we investigated the associations between some known suicide-related factors (i.e. tobacco use, antidepressant use and alcohol consumption at the population level) and the suicide rate between 1985 and 2008. The total number of man-hours worked per year by psychiatrists in the outpatient service system and real GDP growth were also monitored in our study. A time series analysis model was constructed to investigate the associations between the above variables and the suicide rate. In the unadjusted model annual tobacco consumption was significantly associated with the suicide rate in a positive manner, while antidepressant use and man-hours were significantly associated with the suicide rate in a negative manner. After adjustment, the associations remained significant only for tobacco consumption and antidepressant use. Neither alcohol consumption nor real GDP growth was associated with the suicide rate in any models. Our results from group-level data confirmed the role of smoking in suicidal behavior previously suggested mainly by studies using individual-level data and also corroborated the results of previous ecological studies concerning the inverse association between antidepressant use and suicide rate. These findings and the results of previous studies - investigating the relationship between smoking and the risk of suicidal behavior at the individual-level - may suggest that programs to prevent tobacco use or to address the widespread recognition and treatment of depression may also prevent suicidality.

Season of birth is significantly associated with the risk of completed suicide.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have provided somewhat inconsistent results about the effects of season of birth on the risk of suicidal behavior. Therefore, we decided to investigate this question in a large sample of suicide completers. METHODS: We determined the season of birth-associated risk of completed suicide between the years 1970 and 2008 among all individuals who were born in the area of today's Hungary between 1930 and 1939, 1941 and 1942, and 1944 and 1969. RESULTS: The final sample of participants included around six and a half million people. About 80,000 completed suicides occurred among participants during the period investigated (the number of suicide completers in our study greatly exceeds the number of suicide completers in any previous studies). A significantly (p < .05) elevated risk of completed suicide was found among those individuals who were born in the high-risk period (spring and summer). Quantitatively, the biggest increase (7.6% [95% confidence interval: 5.4-9.9]) in suicide risk was detected among those who were born in July compared with the average risk of suicide in the population investigated. The associations between season of birth and the risk of completed suicide were stronger among male subjects than among female subjects and among those who committed suicide using violent methods than among those who chose nonviolent methods. CONCLUSIONS: Our results from a large sample of suicide completers from Hungary--a country with one of the highest suicide rates in the world over the last century--strongly support the concept that the season of birth is significantly associated with the risk of completed suicide.