Qualitative value of information provides a transparent and repeatable method for identifying critical uncertainty.

Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evaluation of critical uncertainty, using the expected value of information, may require more resources than are available in the early stages of conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate the use of a qualitative index to the value of information (QVoI) to prioritize which sources of uncertainty to reduce regarding the use of prescribed fire to benefit Eastern Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis), Yellow Rails (Coterminous noveboracensis), and Mottled Ducks (Anas fulvigula; hereafter, focal species) in high marshes of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Prescribed fire has been used as a management tool in Gulf of Mexico high marshes throughout the last 30+ years; however, effects of periodic burning on the focal species and the optimal conditions for burning marshes to improve habitat remain unknown. We followed a structured decision-making framework to develop conceptual models, which we then used to identify sources of uncertainty and articulate alternative hypotheses about prescribed fire in high marshes. We used QVoI to evaluate the sources of uncertainty based on their Magnitude, Relevance for decision-making, and Reducibility. We found that hypotheses related to the optimal fire return interval and season were the highest priorities for study, whereas hypotheses related to predation rates and interactions among management techniques were lowest. These results suggest that learning about the optimal fire frequency and season to benefit the focal species might produce the greatest management benefit. In this case study, we demonstrate that QVoI can help managers decide where to apply limited resources to learn which specific actions will result in a higher likelihood of achieving the desired management objectives. Further, we summarize the strengths and limitations of QVoI and outline recommendations for its future use for prioritizing research to reduce uncertainty about system dynamics and the effects of management actions.

Age-related reproductive performance of the Adélie penguin, a long-lived seabird exhibiting similar outcomes regardless of individual life-history strategy.

Age-related variation in reproductive performance in long-lived iteroparous vertebrate species is common, with performance being influenced by within-individual processes, such as improvement and senescence, in combination with among-individual processes, such as selective appearance and disappearance. Few studies of age-related reproductive performance have compared the role of these drivers within a metapopulation, subject to varying degrees of resource competition. We accounted for within- and among-individual changes among known-aged Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae during 17 years (1997-2013), at three clustered colonies of disparate size, to understand patterns in age-related reproductive success during early and late adulthood. Age at first reproduction (AFR) was lowest, and number of breeding attempts highest, at the largest colony. Regardless of AFR, success improved with early post-recruitment experience. For both oldest and youngest recruitment groups, peak performance occurred at the end of their reproductive life span indicating a possible cost of reproduction. Intermediate recruitment groups reached peak performance in their mid-reproductive life span and with intermediate breeding experience, before decreasing. Breeding success was lowest for the initial breeding attempt regardless of AFR, but we observed subsequent variation relative to recruitment age. Gaining experience by delaying recruitment positively influenced reproductive performance early in the reproductive life span and was most evident for the youngest breeders. Oldest recruits had the highest initial and peak breeding success. Differences in AFR resulted in trade-offs in reproductive life span or timing of senescence but not in the overall number of breeding attempts. Patterns differed as a function of colony size, and thus competition for resources. Early life improvement in performance at the larger colonies was primarily due to within-individual factors and at the largest colony, AFR. Regardless of colony size late-life performance was positively related to the age at last reproduction, indicating selective disappearance of lower performing individuals. These results highlight that different life-history strategies were equally successful, indicating that individuals can overcome potential trade-offs associated with early- and late-life performance. These results have important implications for understanding the evolution of life-history strategies responsible for driving population change.

Invasive mammal eradication on islands results in substantial conservation gains.

More than US$21 billion is spent annually on biodiversity conservation. Despite their importance for preventing or slowing extinctions and preserving biodiversity, conservation interventions are rarely assessed systematically for their global impact. Islands house a disproportionately higher amount of biodiversity compared with mainlands, much of which is highly threatened with extinction. Indeed, island species make up nearly two-thirds of recent extinctions. Islands therefore are critical targets of conservation. We used an extensive literature and database review paired with expert interviews to estimate the global benefits of an increasingly used conservation action to stem biodiversity loss: eradication of invasive mammals on islands. We found 236 native terrestrial insular faunal species (596 populations) that benefitted through positive demographic and/or distributional responses from 251 eradications of invasive mammals on 181 islands. Seven native species (eight populations) were negatively impacted by invasive mammal eradication. Four threatened species had their International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List extinction-risk categories reduced as a direct result of invasive mammal eradication, and no species moved to a higher extinction-risk category. We predict that 107 highly threatened birds, mammals, and reptiles on the IUCN Red List-6% of all these highly threatened species-likely have benefitted from invasive mammal eradications on islands. Because monitoring of eradication outcomes is sporadic and limited, the impacts of global eradications are likely greater than we report here. Our results highlight the importance of invasive mammal eradication on islands for protecting the world's most imperiled fauna.