RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolically healthy (MHO) and unhealthy obesity (MUO) may be transient conditions. This study aimed to quantify and identify predictive factors of metabolic transitions in obesity, exploring influences of age and sex. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively evaluated adults with obesity who underwent routine health evaluation. In a cross-sectional analysis of 12,118 individuals (80% male, age 44.3 ± 9.9 years), 16.8% had MHO. In a longitudinal evaluation of 4483 participants, 45.2% of individuals with MHO at baseline had dysmetabolism after a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 1.8-5.2) years, whereas 13.3% MUO participants became metabolically healthy (MH). Development of hepatic steatosis (HS, ultrasound) was an independent predictor of MHO conversion to dysmetabolism (OR 2.36; 95% CI 1.43, 3.91; p < 0.001), while HS persistence was inversely associated with transition from MUO to MH status (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.47, 0.83; p = 0.001). Female sex and older age were associated with a lower chance of MUO regression. A 5% increment in body mass index (BMI) over time increased the likelihood of metabolic deterioration by 33% (p = 0.002) in females and 16% (p = 0.018) in males with MHO. A 5% reduction in BMI was associated with a 39% and 66% higher chance of MUO resolution in females and males, respectively (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The findings support a pathophysiological role of ectopic fat depots in metabolic transitions in obesity and identify female sex as an aggravating factor for adiposity-induced dysmetabolism, which has implications for personalized medicine.